WI: Zimbabwe-Rhodesia endures

Circle of Willis

Well-known member
After 14 years of fighting, the Rhodesian government of Ian Smith reached an accord with the moderate opposition led by Bishop Abel Muzorewa and former ZANU leader Ndabaningi Sithole (who had been ousted by Robert Mugabe). This 'Internal Settlement' provided for black majority rule by striking down most racial barriers to the franchise, although about 20 seats out of 100 were de facto reserved for whites by way of property & income qualifications which the country's black majority didn't meet. Rhodesia was renamed Zimbabwe-Rhodesia and took on a new flag, and the 1979 election which followed this agreement saw Muzorewa's party of moderate reconcilers, the UANC, win a majority in a process that international observers agreed to have been free & fair.

However, Jimmy Carter's USA and Margaret Thatcher's Britain refused to lift sanctions on Z-R, officially because the militant ZANU and ZAPU had not been included and so it wasn't 'really' representative of the black majority in their view. (Practically speaking, I would guess that the US probably didn't do it because of Carter's attempt at a much more idealistic & frankly at times starry-eyed foreign policy, while Britain likely was still smarting over how the Rhodesians issued a UDI from the Empire a few decades prior) Socialist African dictatorships and one-party states such as Julius Nyerere's Tanzania and Kenneth Kaunda's Zambia, obviously, did not accept the Internal Settlement either. Eventually, Smith & the Rhodesians cracked under this international pressure and more or less capitulated to the radical revolutionaries under Mugabe in 1980. As we know, after taking power in the 1980 election (where they were reported to have engaged in extensive voter intimidation) said radicals then proceeded to completely destroy the breadbasket of Africa and turn it into a basketcase (complete with ethnic cleansing, not just of the white Rhodesians but also the Matabele support base of Mugabe's ZAPU rivals).

However. What if the West did after all agree that the Internal Settlement was sufficient, and proceed to drop sanctions & recognize Zimbabwe-Rhodesia as legitimate following the election of Muzorewa as prime minister?
 

Ricardolindo

Well-known member
Zimbabwe Rhodesia couldn't have survived. By 1979, the Rhodesian Bush War was too far along for a compromise with the moderate black opposition to work.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Then Zimbabwe would be less dysfunctional right now, with its white0owned farms still being productive and thus its economy not being anywhere near as much in the toilet as it actually is in real life? Of course, Communists worldwide could use this as political ammo to say that the US and UK weren't genuinely in favor of national liberation since only national liberation movements that the Soviet Union approves of are actually legitimate. But if Zimbabweans' lives will significantly improve, then why exactly should it matter what the Soviet Union thinks about this?
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Zimbabwe Rhodesia couldn't have survived. By 1979, the Rhodesian Bush War was too far along for a compromise with the moderate black opposition to work.

The rebels could have been crushed, no? I mean, it's not like white rule in Sub-Saharan Africa actually exemplified incompetent government.
 

Circle of Willis

Well-known member
Zimbabwe Rhodesia couldn't have survived. By 1979, the Rhodesian Bush War was too far along for a compromise with the moderate black opposition to work.
Are you certain? There seem to have been fairly extensive plans in place for an operation to neuter ZANU around this time and if the frankly comically lopsided outcomes of the Bush War's various battles are any indicator, I would definitely not be betting on Mugabe's boys. (I mean damn, 'just' lowering their K : D ratio to 20:1 seems to have been considered an achievement by both sides)

Aside from the effects of successfully killing Mugabe as Op. Quartz (or whatever equivalent to it is cooked up ITL) had planned - were Z-R to attain international recognition and an end to the economically ruinous sanctions, and especially if the Reagan administration proves much more willing to actively aid them than its predecessors, I'd imagine their chances going forward into the '80s would dramatically improve, no?
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Are you certain? There seem to have been fairly extensive plans in place for an operation to neuter ZANU around this time and if the frankly comically lopsided outcomes of the Bush War's various battles are any indicator, I would definitely not be betting on Mugabe's boys. (I mean damn, 'just' lowering their K : D ratio to 20:1 seems to have been considered an achievement by both sides)

Aside from the effects of successfully killing Mugabe as Op. Quartz (or whatever equivalent to it is cooked up ITL) had planned - were Z-R to attain international recognition and an end to the economically ruinous sanctions, and especially if the Reagan administration proves much more willing to actively aid them than its predecessors, I'd imagine their chances going forward into the '80s would dramatically improve, no?

Sounds like a reasonable analysis, frankly. Any chance that they could recruit immigrants from abroad to help their economy develop? For instance, Indians? East Africa already has a bunch of mercantile Indians, after all. Why can't Zimbabwe likewise invite them into their own country? Could provide a useful economic boost for Zimbabwe, after all.
 

Circle of Willis

Well-known member
Sounds like a reasonable analysis, frankly. Any chance that they could recruit immigrants from abroad to help their economy develop? For instance, Indians? East Africa already has a bunch of mercantile Indians, after all. Why can't Zimbabwe likewise invite them into their own country? Could provide a useful economic boost for Zimbabwe, after all.
Not until & unless Z-R comprehensively crushes the insurgents first, active warzones don't tend to be very attractive hotspots for immigrants. Even afterward I don't know if any large number of Indians would particularly want to move there, maybe the ones who got expelled from Uganda by Idi Amin & are searching for a new home in Africa but I think that happened quite a few years before the Internal Settlement.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Not until & unless Z-R comprehensively crushes the insurgents first, active warzones don't tend to be very attractive hotspots for immigrants. Even afterward I don't know if any large number of Indians would particularly want to move there, maybe the ones who got expelled from Uganda by Idi Amin & are searching for a new home in Africa but I think that happened quite a few years before the Internal Settlement.

What about Chinese who will want to develop Africa and Zimbabwe?

 

Circle of Willis

Well-known member
I think a surviving Z-R has got quite a few years or decades ahead of it to think about before immigration, Chinese or Indian or otherwise, becomes a relevant topic.
 

PsihoKekec

Swashbuckling Accountant
The problem is that USSR and China could continue the support of ZANU and ZAPU, who could continue the raids to undermine the new government, while better weapons would make the raids on their fortified bases increasingly more difficult. Materially, the Rhodesians were in dire straits by the end of war as South Africa stopped assistance and they were running low on spare parts for their aircraft and helicopters, many of which were at the end of their lifespan.

Now, if the USA accepts the new government and removes the sanctions, the military can trudge on and perhaps they can get some replacement aircraft and helicopters from American surplus after Regan becomes president and supports them as fellow fighters against communism. With the Cold War winding down both sides lose their support and have to make peace, but ZANU and ZAPU have to do it from weaker position.
 

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