Without the events of 1204, just how much longer does the Byzantine Empire survive?

WolfBear

Well-known member
Without the events of 1204, just how much longer does the Byzantine Empire survive? What I found interesting is that the Byzantine Empire had periods of recovery after huge losses--for instance, the 717-1045 period after the huge 7th century losses to the Muslims and the Komnenian era after the Battle of Manzikert. However, any Byzantine recovery after 1204 turned out to be short and ephermeral even after Constantinople's reconquest in 1261. Thus, I'm wondering just how much better the Byzantine Empire's condition would have been over the next couple of centuries and beyond had the 1204 Sack of Constantinople never actually occurred. Thoughts?
 
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History Learner

Well-known member
The Ottomans were able to expand quite heavily, though--almost up to the Byzantine Empire's 565 borders, in fact!

Yeah, it really depends; the Ottomans had the benefit of a strategic opening by events largely outside of their control and the resources-via control of Anatolia-to exploit them. The Byzantines have the handicap of being a Christian state when it comes to Middle Eastern expansion, however.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Yeah, it really depends; the Ottomans had the benefit of a strategic opening by events largely outside of their control and the resources-via control of Anatolia-to exploit them. The Byzantines have the handicap of being a Christian state when it comes to Middle Eastern expansion, however.

There is the option of mass conversion for Middle Eastern Muslims. While the traditional penalty for apostasy in Islam is the death penalty, if they are going to be living under Christian rule for centuries, an effect could eventually end up being visible--similar to a scenario where the Crusader states somehow manage to survive indefinitely, for instance.
 

Eparkhos

Well-known member
Alright, in long:

The short-term future in a no-1204 world is the existing Angelos regime being deposed by a coalition of noble families similar to that which established the Komnenian dynasty a century and change before. The Angeloi were complete shitheads and widely hated, so they have a definite end date and will almost certainly be gone by 1210. The question is who replaces them.

To make a long story short there are two real options: The Laskaroi and the Megalokomnenoi, all the other contender dynasties being too weak or divisive to be plausible. I'm not too sure about the Megalokomnenoi, as with their backing by Tamar of Georgia (and her armies), Alexios and David might be seen as foreign puppets, and their was likely still some residual resentment after the trainwreck of Manuel's late reign and Andronikos I, so I'll assume Theodoros or Konstantinos Laskaris has succeeded in deposing the Angeloi with the support of a noble coalition.

The most pressing problem of the early 13th century is centralization, as the Angeloi had allowed thematic governors and pronoiai to effectively carve out statelets for themselves across the empire--according to a map I can't be assed to dredge up, Thrace, Epirus and Bithynia were the only parts of the empire where the state still functioned. Individually, these provincial governors could be crushed in one or two campaigns by a large and determined force (see the Frankokratia), but because of the noble coalitions that dominated post-Komnenian Byzantine power politics, doing so brings a serious chance of a revolt backed by the other governors, which grows stronger as more regions are incorporated. Even if this can be resolved, this period of decentralization will have caused God-only-knows how much corruption & institutional rot that will take generations to sort out, if ever, and will hamper the state indefinitely.

The second problem of the early 13th century are Byzantium's neighbors. Bulgaria is very strong in the early 1200s, and with Kaloyan poised to come down on Constantinople like the wrath of God fending them off will be extremely difficult in and of itself. Reconquering Bulgaria will likely be impossible for a century or more due to organization and protonationalistic thought, assuming Bulgaria doesn't just crush the Byzantines. At sea, the Venetians will be a constant nuisance and threat out of a desire for concessions and more power, albeit not as much as OTL given they haven't been whetted by 1204. I think they might get a few islands, at least for the short term. To the east, the Rumites are also a growing power (for now), with a series of capable rulers taking advantage of the ongoing chaos to push west, and with little to no institutional problems for them they will be a very resilient threat. Finally there is Tamar's Georgia, which can either be a great ally or a terrible enemy, capable of pinning down the Rumites and greatly relieving the pressure on the Byzantines or setting up a puppet dynasty under the Megalokomnenoi in Trebizond and contesting control of the Black Sea trade and leadership of the Orthodox world. It could go either way, though I think mutual conflict with the Turks will drive Byzantium and Georgia closer together.

Note: I'm skipping social and economic analysis for the short term, but the best option (and the one the Laskarioi are most likely to pursue) is to break up as many estates as possible/conquer more land to revive the themata and reform the pronoiai to make them more effective as they were under Alexios I/Ioannes II. Tradewise their best option is to increase trade ties to the West through multiple sources to reduce Venetian power and increase state revenues (focusing on wines, alum and other agri products) while encouraging domestic proto-industry.

(1/X)
 

Eparkhos

Well-known member
(2/X)

Things change sharply in the mid-13th century as the Mongols roflstomp the Rumites, Bulgarians and Georgians and crush Byzantium's main rivals. I've heard speculation that the post-Byzantines survived the Mongols because they were too small/poor/isolated to bother with, but this seems suspect so I'll ignore it. With this sudden blow, Byzantium's foreign policies change dramatically and (assuming centralization and reform have progressed to the point where it is capable of foreign offensives) a return to the Komnenian Golden Era becomes truly possible.

The 2nd Bulgarian Empire was a deeply unstable state, with constant noble conflicts and extreme social tension (2nd Bulgarian Empire was the site of the only successful peasant revolt in European history), so once it is devestated by the Mongols it should be relatively easy to absorb. The technique is what matters, as a clumsy approach could easily unite the Bulgarians against Constantinople and draw out the conflict or, worse, drive it into Mongol tributage as a protection. The best approach, I think, would be to portray the basileus as an Orthodox ruler come to free the lower classes from noble tyranny and chaos, restricting the expansion of the pronoiai to secure a somewhat peaceable region and (ideally) a loyal base of men and money. No matter how it is done, this will take a time, likely more than a decade to truly pacify the region and half a century to truly integrate it, but if done well it will strengthen the Empire immensely. The Vlachs should be left as an independent state to shield Bulgaria from the Mongols, and everything should be done with great care to not provoke the khans.

Serbia was undergoing a period of domestic turmoil and civil wars (basically the entire Nemanjic Period), so the factions should be played against each other until Serbia is weak enough to be dominated. Care should be taken not to provoke the Hungarians or Venetians into intervention, however, as that could turn an otherwise backwater buffer into a cold war.

In the east, Georgia should be in flaming ruins after the Mongol invasions. The Byzantines should begin to establish political and military ties with the Georgian remnant states to increase their region and secure the Black Sea, with the eventual goal of establishing vassal states along the buffer and securing the warlike tribes of the region in service to the basileus. Existing Georgian missionary programs in the North Caucasus should recieve full aid as an important way of increasing support in the region, securing the support of the warlike Circassians, Vainakhs and Avars, future farmland and a buffer with the Mongols. It also helps protray the Byzantines as the center of the Orthodox world and increase cultural hegemony.

Finally, there are the Turks. This should be easy, actually. After the Mongol invasion, many Turkmen groups followed them from Central Asia and began settling in Anatolia. They, being truly Turkic fanatics, had little in common with the more Persianate and religious complex Seljuk Turks, and so in OTL and ITTL they set about a series of wars over land and culture. The Byzantines should play them off each other, slowly encroaching on the edge of the plateau with fortified settlements and networks of defense. This will take decades, if not centuries, but with a continuous program and rational(ish) actions it can be done very easily. Special care should be taken to play the Alawites/Armenians/'softer' Sunnis against the hardline Hanbali Sunnis supported by many of the Turkmen to intensify the conflict and ideally keep out outsiders. Eventually the two factions will have bled themselves, and as the Seljuks are far more familiar & reasonable than the Turkmen, the Byzantines should move in with overwhelming force to crush the Turkmen, kill all the men, sell the women and children into slavery and move various Greek, Albanian, Armenian and other Christian herder groups into their pastureland to make sure that they can't come back. The Seljuk nobility were very hellenized OTL, so with a stronger Byzantium and a longer and more galvanizing conflict with the Turkmen they should be even more so. They should be pulled into the existing Byzantine aristocracy as well as possible while all of Anatolia is conquered and incorporated into the Empire--a light hand should be used in much of it to keep the Sunnis and Armenians from revolting, but if this has been done right they'll be happy to just have peace after decades of war.

If everything goes well, by 1400 Byzantium will have expanded to include all or almost all of the Balkans and Anatolia, similar to their borders at the time of Basil II (minus Italy & Outer Armenia) and will have vassals stretching across Serbia and the Western Caucasus. Enter Timur.
 

stevep

Well-known member
Well it was going well until those last two words. :eek: Especially since in his later years he was a fiercely fanatical Muslim expansionist and went to great efforts to crush non-Muslims states - and those Muslim led ones who were more tolerant. Byzantium here, assuming of course a Timur figure still occurs, would probably be his target earlier than the Ottomans were OTL.

How would you see relations between such a reviving Byzantium and the western powers? Venice is always likely to be a problem but a reviving eastern empire could be an issue of concern for both the Hungarians and the HRE - unless in the latter case they have good relations with them in which case they could be on the Pope's hit list?
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
If everything goes well, by 1400 Byzantium will have expanded to include all or almost all of the Balkans and Anatolia, similar to their borders at the time of Basil II (minus Italy & Outer Armenia) and will have vassals stretching across Serbia and the Western Caucasus. Enter Timur.

Well it was going well until those last two words. :eek: Especially since in his later years he was a fiercely fanatical Muslim expansionist and went to great efforts to crush non-Muslims states - and those Muslim led ones who were more tolerant. Byzantium here, assuming of course a Timur figure still occurs, would probably be his target earlier than the Ottomans were OTL.

How would you see relations between such a reviving Byzantium and the western powers? Venice is always likely to be a problem but a reviving eastern empire could be an issue of concern for both the Hungarians and the HRE - unless in the latter case they have good relations with them in which case they could be on the Pope's hit list?

Timur won't exist in this TL due to the butterfly effect.
 

Eparkhos

Well-known member
Timur won't exist in this TL due to the butterfly effect.
True, the Timur of IRL wouldn't exist, but the factors that led to the rise and expansion (and collapse) of the Timurid Empire are still mostly unaffected due to a similar collapse of the Mongol khanates (which I believe was pretty much predestined, seeing as steppe empires either go native or collapse), and given that Timur is a fairly common (and symbolic) name in the region it seems reasonable that a major conqueror rising in the region could either be named Timur or be called Timur as a sign of respect.
Well it was going well until those last two words. :eek: Especially since in his later years he was a fiercely fanatical Muslim expansionist and went to great efforts to crush non-Muslims states - and those Muslim led ones who were more tolerant. Byzantium here, assuming of course a Timur figure still occurs, would probably be his target earlier than the Ottomans were OTL.
Quite true. The Byzantines, as chief agents of Orthodoxy in the Caucasus and western ME will be in alt-Timur's sights once he has a powerbase large enough to come after them. On a side note, Russia will be somewhat worse off ITTL as there'll be no curb-stomping of the Golden Horde by the Timurids. I'd imagine that the casus belli would be a revolt amongst the Central Anatolian Turks or a claimant to the Rumite throne inviting him in.
How would you see relations between such a reviving Byzantium and the western powers? Venice is always likely to be a problem but a reviving eastern empire could be an issue of concern for both the Hungarians and the HRE - unless in the latter case they have good relations with them in which case they could be on the Pope's hit list?
This will be elaborated on later, but Hungarian (or macro-Hungarian) interests in the Balkans conflict sharply with the Byzantines', and depending on affairs in Naples Italy could easily be a major threat. Thanks for commenting, btw.
 

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