World War III: 1988, Chapter 1: "The Crows Gather"
Tiamat
I've seen the future...
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World War III: 1988
Chapter I: The Crows Gather
"I still remember after the Reykjavik Summit, how there were photos all over the press of Reagan and Gorbachev laughing, smiling and shaking hands. Sure, there wasn't any particular deals made, but the press was heralding it as a new era of detente, or 'glasnost' as Gorbachev had called it. Everyone was hopeful again. I guess they forgot some important details about the history and nature of Soviet politics..."
-- Excerpt from declassified Central Intelligence Agency memorandum by U.S. DDI Jack Ryan, released via Freedom of Information Act, 2000.
To analyze the "War of '88" as it is sometimes regarded as, one must first delve into the fateful events that led to the conflict, which are myriad and rather complex. Since the war, historians and researchers have slowly gathered information from both former U.S./U.K. intelligence analysts and ex-Soviet/ex-Warsaw Pact defectors , declassified intelligence files and intercepts, and whatever diaries and archives were recovered via various means during the chaotic disintegration of the USSR to paint a very rough portrait of events leading to the Third World War.
In 1986, Mikhail Gorbachev had cemented his position as General Secretary of the CPSU by replacing key figures in several departments of the secretariat, and also surrounding himself with figures he felt were more sympathetic to his plans to implement reforms, or perestroika as he called it. Some of these figures included Boris Yeltsin, Eduard Shevardnadze, Anatoly Lukyanov, and Vadim Medvedev among others. Gorbachev had begun to openly call for not just reforms to the Soviet economy, but also improved relations with the West and reductions in military spending in order to offset the cost of the planned reforms. Needless to say, Gorbachev's actions were not at all well-received by the more conservative figures within the secretariat from the Brezhnev era, in particular the head of the KGB, Viktor Chebrikov. Although he had been appointed head of internal security under Gorbachev, and was, at least publicly seen as supportive of some of Gorbachev's initial reforms, Chebrikov was a protege of Andropov, and was far less than enthusiastic about Gorbachev's desire for more open debate within the USSR in regards to various ethnic strife across the country, as well as more "openness" with the West and deescalation of tensions. Chebrikov favored a more aggressive and as it would later turn out, ruthless approach to the West, seeing it as part of the "great revolutionary struggle" through which there could only be one outcome. However, an unforeseen event in 1986 brought matters to a head.
On April 26, 1986, the No. 4 Nuclear Reactor at the Chernobyl NPP plant outside Pripyat, Ukraine exploded, releasing untold amounts of irradiated and hazardous material into the surrounding area and atmosphere. Immediately after this the Soviet authorities attempted to conceal the event, not stating until April 28 after radiation detectors at the Forsmark NPP plant in Sweden detected radiation that there was an "incident". With radiation detectors going off throughout Central and Western Europe, eventually reaching as far as the mainland United States, negative outcries came pouring in from the West, along with rumblings from the Soviet public. Even as the Soviets attempted for the next several months to put out the fire from the explosion and evacuated the area around Chernobyl, there were still efforts by the Kremlin to suppress information on the incident. What truly blew up the matter within the Kremlin however, was when Gorbachev chaired a private meeting after the Chernobyl disaster in late August that same year with Chebrikov.
In the meeting, Gorbachev demanded to know if Chebrikov had been suppressing critical details in regards to the incident that may have hampered cleanup efforts. Chebrikov defiantly responded he had been merely acting in the interests of state security. An incensed Gorbachev then demanded to know the whereabouts of Valery Legasov, who had been a key figure in regards to investigating the disaster and coordinating recovery efforts. His whereabouts had not been known since he'd released his report to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Chebrikov informed him he had been detained by the KGB "for concerns in regards to his mental health and well-being". When Gorbachev demanded his immediate release, Chebrikov informed him that Legasov had committed suicide. At this Gorbachev shouted at Chebrikov in a tone that could be heard outside the room to his secretaries, ordering Chebrikov to get out, and then called for a meeting of the secretariat the next day, where he demanded a "full list of all current projects in the USSR that may pose a safety risk to the state and it's people", and for the list to be delivered to him by the end of September.
On September 28, the USSR Minister of Defense, Sergey Sokolov, delivered a report to Gorbachev detailing all sites and projects that may have "safety issues". While the full report is still unknown (curiously enough all copies of the report were in time seized and destroyed by the KGB), two items that were supposedly at the top of the list were the then-unknown Soviet biological weapons program known as Biopreparat, and a relatively unknown Soviet research site referred to only as "Site 24" (Both the U.S. and U.K. governments still to this day refuse to comment on what intel is known about Site 24 or what it may have been used for). Gorbachev asked to know more information in regards to the two items. After reviewing notes and pictures supplied by Sokolov's aide, Gorbachev sternly ordered Sokolov to cease all activities with the two programs within 30 days. When Sokolov resisted, an incensed Gorbachev demanded Sokolov's full cooperation in the shutdown of both programs, or to hand in his resignation within 30 days. A shaken Sokolov then excused himself and retired to his office, where it is suspected he made a phone call to none other than Chebrikov.
Chebrikov had decided it was time to enact "desperate measures" to safeguard the future of the Socialist State, and an opportunity to do just that had sprung up. Gorbachev and Reagan had agreed to meet in Reykjavik, Iceland in October to discuss a thawing of ties and possible disarmament talks. When Gorbachev and his wife and staff flew off to Iceland October 10, Chebrikov immediately contacted Alexander Vlasov, Minister of the MVD (Internal Affairs) and warned he should be on the lookout for "possible infiltration by Western-sponsored terrorists". It is widely suspected this was a coded reference to prepare his troops to take immediate action on Gorbachev's return. While it has been debated if Vlasov went along with the plan willingly, or may have been blackmailed by Chebrikov, the outcome remained that Vlasov immediately gave an immediate "stand-to" order to the MVD troops, but to await further orders. Similarly, transmissions were passed along to the KGB-controlled Kremlin Guard, to also be on alert for any "acts of subversion".
At the Reykjavik Summit, Reagan and Gorbachev spoke in earnest. Though no deal was struck, with Reagan insisting that the Strategic Defense Initiative program, or SDI remain in place, there was a remarkable sense of congeniality between the leaders, their wives, and staff. Both leaders stated they felt they had a very promising start and wished each other well, and felt further meetings could be arranged to lead to something concrete and productive. The western media described the summit as a potential new era in detente between the East and West. Sadly, this would never be the case as Reagan fondly bid Gorbachev farewell, unknowingly for the last time.
When Gorbachev and his entourage arrived back in the USSR on October 13 at Sheremetyevo Airport outside Moscow, they were immediately greeted by numerous armed plainsclothed men from the KGB Spetznaz Alpha Group. They were immediately hustled into several waiting trucks at gunpoint and driven away. This was the last time Gorbachev and his wife were seen in public. Although their fate still remains unknown, it is claimed by several sources they were driven to an unidentified lake outside Moscow where they were shot, the corpses burned and the ashes and bones scattered across the lake. But what came next was far more ruthless and brutal.
An official state of emergency was declared in Moscow, declaring that "Western backed spies and terrorists had infiltrated the USSR and emergency measures were to be taken immediately." Fully armed MVD troops with armored vehicles, backed by the Kremlin Guard, immediately arrested all of Gorbachev's inner circle and associates. Yeltsin was immediately shot in his own office. Shevardnadze attempted to escape in his personal car and was machine-gunned at a KGB checkpoint. Other personas such as Lukyanov and Medvedev were arrested and forcibly taken away in trucks, never to be seen again. Andrei Gromyko was immediately designated the new General Secretary of the CPSU.
The next day, October 14, a shocked Ronald Reagan watched from the Oval Office as Andrei Gromyko appeared on the Soviet TASS News Agency, declaring that the Kremlin had acted against "A complex plot by the West utilizing traitors within the USSR to undermine the great Socialist State, leading to the disaster at Chernobyl." He then went on to declare that it would behoove their "Socialist brothers and sisters in arms around the world, especially among the Warsaw Pact, to act against all Western-sympathetic traitors immediately." The TASS broadcast then immediately shifted to a courtroom where a barely seen figure in a corner purported to be Gorbachev (Western intelligence analysts on reviewing the footage dispute this, claiming it was likely a stand-in) was made to listen to a litany of charges, accusing him of conspiring with the West to undermine the Soviet Union, leading to the incident at Chernobyl. After the charges were made, an immediate guilty verdict was declared, with the figure purporting to be Gorbachev being lead away by KGB guards, presumably to be executed.
After the newscast ceased, President Reagan turned to his Chief of Staff, Donald Regan and was quoted as saying rather directly, "Don...just what the hell happened?!"
To which Donald Regan paused for a moment, then replied "Mr. President...we are in for some very rough and nasty weather ahead." Donald Regan later mentioned in retrospect he had no idea how prophetic those words would be...
"When my last few contacts in the USSR went dark, I knew it was bad. Even the 'Red Room' had gone silent. I was barely able to help get Kalugin out in time, and Mitrokhin along with Alibekov seemed to both get the hint and got out with the dogs yapping on their heels. I knew some others who also tried to defect. Some succeeded...the rest, I never heard from again. Even then, I don't think anyone realized it was just the prelude to something far worse."
--Declassified joint CIA/MI-6 operations debrief of unnamed ex-Soviet KGB defector identified as "Black Widow", released via Freedom of Information Act, 2000.
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World War III: 1988
Chapter I: The Crows Gather
"I still remember after the Reykjavik Summit, how there were photos all over the press of Reagan and Gorbachev laughing, smiling and shaking hands. Sure, there wasn't any particular deals made, but the press was heralding it as a new era of detente, or 'glasnost' as Gorbachev had called it. Everyone was hopeful again. I guess they forgot some important details about the history and nature of Soviet politics..."
-- Excerpt from declassified Central Intelligence Agency memorandum by U.S. DDI Jack Ryan, released via Freedom of Information Act, 2000.
To analyze the "War of '88" as it is sometimes regarded as, one must first delve into the fateful events that led to the conflict, which are myriad and rather complex. Since the war, historians and researchers have slowly gathered information from both former U.S./U.K. intelligence analysts and ex-Soviet/ex-Warsaw Pact defectors , declassified intelligence files and intercepts, and whatever diaries and archives were recovered via various means during the chaotic disintegration of the USSR to paint a very rough portrait of events leading to the Third World War.
In 1986, Mikhail Gorbachev had cemented his position as General Secretary of the CPSU by replacing key figures in several departments of the secretariat, and also surrounding himself with figures he felt were more sympathetic to his plans to implement reforms, or perestroika as he called it. Some of these figures included Boris Yeltsin, Eduard Shevardnadze, Anatoly Lukyanov, and Vadim Medvedev among others. Gorbachev had begun to openly call for not just reforms to the Soviet economy, but also improved relations with the West and reductions in military spending in order to offset the cost of the planned reforms. Needless to say, Gorbachev's actions were not at all well-received by the more conservative figures within the secretariat from the Brezhnev era, in particular the head of the KGB, Viktor Chebrikov. Although he had been appointed head of internal security under Gorbachev, and was, at least publicly seen as supportive of some of Gorbachev's initial reforms, Chebrikov was a protege of Andropov, and was far less than enthusiastic about Gorbachev's desire for more open debate within the USSR in regards to various ethnic strife across the country, as well as more "openness" with the West and deescalation of tensions. Chebrikov favored a more aggressive and as it would later turn out, ruthless approach to the West, seeing it as part of the "great revolutionary struggle" through which there could only be one outcome. However, an unforeseen event in 1986 brought matters to a head.
On April 26, 1986, the No. 4 Nuclear Reactor at the Chernobyl NPP plant outside Pripyat, Ukraine exploded, releasing untold amounts of irradiated and hazardous material into the surrounding area and atmosphere. Immediately after this the Soviet authorities attempted to conceal the event, not stating until April 28 after radiation detectors at the Forsmark NPP plant in Sweden detected radiation that there was an "incident". With radiation detectors going off throughout Central and Western Europe, eventually reaching as far as the mainland United States, negative outcries came pouring in from the West, along with rumblings from the Soviet public. Even as the Soviets attempted for the next several months to put out the fire from the explosion and evacuated the area around Chernobyl, there were still efforts by the Kremlin to suppress information on the incident. What truly blew up the matter within the Kremlin however, was when Gorbachev chaired a private meeting after the Chernobyl disaster in late August that same year with Chebrikov.
In the meeting, Gorbachev demanded to know if Chebrikov had been suppressing critical details in regards to the incident that may have hampered cleanup efforts. Chebrikov defiantly responded he had been merely acting in the interests of state security. An incensed Gorbachev then demanded to know the whereabouts of Valery Legasov, who had been a key figure in regards to investigating the disaster and coordinating recovery efforts. His whereabouts had not been known since he'd released his report to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Chebrikov informed him he had been detained by the KGB "for concerns in regards to his mental health and well-being". When Gorbachev demanded his immediate release, Chebrikov informed him that Legasov had committed suicide. At this Gorbachev shouted at Chebrikov in a tone that could be heard outside the room to his secretaries, ordering Chebrikov to get out, and then called for a meeting of the secretariat the next day, where he demanded a "full list of all current projects in the USSR that may pose a safety risk to the state and it's people", and for the list to be delivered to him by the end of September.
On September 28, the USSR Minister of Defense, Sergey Sokolov, delivered a report to Gorbachev detailing all sites and projects that may have "safety issues". While the full report is still unknown (curiously enough all copies of the report were in time seized and destroyed by the KGB), two items that were supposedly at the top of the list were the then-unknown Soviet biological weapons program known as Biopreparat, and a relatively unknown Soviet research site referred to only as "Site 24" (Both the U.S. and U.K. governments still to this day refuse to comment on what intel is known about Site 24 or what it may have been used for). Gorbachev asked to know more information in regards to the two items. After reviewing notes and pictures supplied by Sokolov's aide, Gorbachev sternly ordered Sokolov to cease all activities with the two programs within 30 days. When Sokolov resisted, an incensed Gorbachev demanded Sokolov's full cooperation in the shutdown of both programs, or to hand in his resignation within 30 days. A shaken Sokolov then excused himself and retired to his office, where it is suspected he made a phone call to none other than Chebrikov.
Chebrikov had decided it was time to enact "desperate measures" to safeguard the future of the Socialist State, and an opportunity to do just that had sprung up. Gorbachev and Reagan had agreed to meet in Reykjavik, Iceland in October to discuss a thawing of ties and possible disarmament talks. When Gorbachev and his wife and staff flew off to Iceland October 10, Chebrikov immediately contacted Alexander Vlasov, Minister of the MVD (Internal Affairs) and warned he should be on the lookout for "possible infiltration by Western-sponsored terrorists". It is widely suspected this was a coded reference to prepare his troops to take immediate action on Gorbachev's return. While it has been debated if Vlasov went along with the plan willingly, or may have been blackmailed by Chebrikov, the outcome remained that Vlasov immediately gave an immediate "stand-to" order to the MVD troops, but to await further orders. Similarly, transmissions were passed along to the KGB-controlled Kremlin Guard, to also be on alert for any "acts of subversion".
At the Reykjavik Summit, Reagan and Gorbachev spoke in earnest. Though no deal was struck, with Reagan insisting that the Strategic Defense Initiative program, or SDI remain in place, there was a remarkable sense of congeniality between the leaders, their wives, and staff. Both leaders stated they felt they had a very promising start and wished each other well, and felt further meetings could be arranged to lead to something concrete and productive. The western media described the summit as a potential new era in detente between the East and West. Sadly, this would never be the case as Reagan fondly bid Gorbachev farewell, unknowingly for the last time.
When Gorbachev and his entourage arrived back in the USSR on October 13 at Sheremetyevo Airport outside Moscow, they were immediately greeted by numerous armed plainsclothed men from the KGB Spetznaz Alpha Group. They were immediately hustled into several waiting trucks at gunpoint and driven away. This was the last time Gorbachev and his wife were seen in public. Although their fate still remains unknown, it is claimed by several sources they were driven to an unidentified lake outside Moscow where they were shot, the corpses burned and the ashes and bones scattered across the lake. But what came next was far more ruthless and brutal.
An official state of emergency was declared in Moscow, declaring that "Western backed spies and terrorists had infiltrated the USSR and emergency measures were to be taken immediately." Fully armed MVD troops with armored vehicles, backed by the Kremlin Guard, immediately arrested all of Gorbachev's inner circle and associates. Yeltsin was immediately shot in his own office. Shevardnadze attempted to escape in his personal car and was machine-gunned at a KGB checkpoint. Other personas such as Lukyanov and Medvedev were arrested and forcibly taken away in trucks, never to be seen again. Andrei Gromyko was immediately designated the new General Secretary of the CPSU.
The next day, October 14, a shocked Ronald Reagan watched from the Oval Office as Andrei Gromyko appeared on the Soviet TASS News Agency, declaring that the Kremlin had acted against "A complex plot by the West utilizing traitors within the USSR to undermine the great Socialist State, leading to the disaster at Chernobyl." He then went on to declare that it would behoove their "Socialist brothers and sisters in arms around the world, especially among the Warsaw Pact, to act against all Western-sympathetic traitors immediately." The TASS broadcast then immediately shifted to a courtroom where a barely seen figure in a corner purported to be Gorbachev (Western intelligence analysts on reviewing the footage dispute this, claiming it was likely a stand-in) was made to listen to a litany of charges, accusing him of conspiring with the West to undermine the Soviet Union, leading to the incident at Chernobyl. After the charges were made, an immediate guilty verdict was declared, with the figure purporting to be Gorbachev being lead away by KGB guards, presumably to be executed.
After the newscast ceased, President Reagan turned to his Chief of Staff, Donald Regan and was quoted as saying rather directly, "Don...just what the hell happened?!"
To which Donald Regan paused for a moment, then replied "Mr. President...we are in for some very rough and nasty weather ahead." Donald Regan later mentioned in retrospect he had no idea how prophetic those words would be...
"When my last few contacts in the USSR went dark, I knew it was bad. Even the 'Red Room' had gone silent. I was barely able to help get Kalugin out in time, and Mitrokhin along with Alibekov seemed to both get the hint and got out with the dogs yapping on their heels. I knew some others who also tried to defect. Some succeeded...the rest, I never heard from again. Even then, I don't think anyone realized it was just the prelude to something far worse."
--Declassified joint CIA/MI-6 operations debrief of unnamed ex-Soviet KGB defector identified as "Black Widow", released via Freedom of Information Act, 2000.
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They'll definitely create quite a ruckus, and will inevitably want to "stick it to the man" regardless. Without giving too much away, let's just say 1987 is the year where Reagan kind of outdoes himself on the international stage as compared to the previous year...
