Would Russia have ended up more or less as industrialized if the Whites had won?
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Skallagrim
Well-known member
Even if they do, the likely outcome is that some clear winner emerges soon enough. Unlike in China, the commies have been crushed and there's no Japanese invasion. So you'd expect a Generalissimo to emerge before too long. A few extra years of civil war, before the house is put in order, is still much better than a few decades of Soviet rule.
Everything - except Mao and Polpot - is better then few decades of soviet rule.
Zyobot
Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
Not quite a "Whites victory" scenario, but I don't suppose people would be interested in this post, where the scenario is that Tsarist Russia industrializes and surpasses OTL America as an economic superpower?
If so, I suspect long-term results would yield similar outcomes here, at least assuming the best possible luck and leadership for the Whites. However, I doubt Russia would be able to match the US if they developed along the path of Nazi Germany instead, though as @Skallagrim says, just about anyone would be better at economy-building than Uncle Joe was.
If so, I suspect long-term results would yield similar outcomes here, at least assuming the best possible luck and leadership for the Whites. However, I doubt Russia would be able to match the US if they developed along the path of Nazi Germany instead, though as @Skallagrim says, just about anyone would be better at economy-building than Uncle Joe was.
TheRomanSlayer
Kayabangan, Dugo, at Dangal
A surviving Stolypin would have ensured that Tsarist Russia would have been able to develop its economy at a steady pace, without the tragedy of WWI and the Russian Civil War. However, the idea of an intact Jewish population within the Russian Empire staying might be difficult, given the pogroms that have occurred.
This could eventually provide political support for Zionism if the US will still eventually largely close its doors to them.
Skallagrim
Well-known member
Generally speaking, I'd argue that a "no World War I" scenario with a surviving Russian Empire is better for Russia's prospect than any scenario that does have World War I occurring (except, perhaps, if it's a very short war). As others have noted, Tsarist Russia was carrying out reforms and modernisations.
Any scenario wth a POD after World War I means Russia has already taken a shot in the gut. It can be treated, it can be survived, but it's an ordeal by its very nature. In OTL... the wound was allowed to fester, and in fact treated with quack medicine, akin to insanely irresponsible drugs. ("The wounded athlete, all jacked-up with performance drugs, keeps going even as his body gives out... until he just drops dead.")
Zyobot
Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
I suppose the more "capitalistic" industrialization process being discussed here ties well into what you said about Tsarist Russia becoming a "High Culture" elsewhere, then? If so, I'm guessing a "Whites win" scenario where competent leadership wrests power from the deranged fanatics and sets Russia on the right path would be similarly fruitful, despite the "rough patch" it went through, initially.
Stołypin reforms would made it real.That is why Wall Street send Trocky and his thugs to change that.To get rid of competitors.
TheRomanSlayer
Kayabangan, Dugo, at Dangal
I thought that Stalin was the Butcher of Katyn?
TheRomanSlayer
Kayabangan, Dugo, at Dangal
That is what I meant: STOLYPIN would have been the Father of Genuine Industrialization instead of STALIN.
Sralin was butcher of many places,i think that he have one Katyń/20.000/ per week averagely.
Chiron
Well-known member
What Whites? Which faction of them? The Tsarists? The Republicans? The Nationalist Separatists? Kerenskyite social-democrats? Define which faction first and then we can answer the question otherwise it is so overly broad as to be meaningless.
Since you brought it up, it's fairly obvious you should answer for each faction you mentioned.
Please be detailed.
🍿🤗
Chiron
Well-known member
Not my Op, the Op creator is the one who must define what he means. If the Whites win together, ok, it descends into a warlord phase and various republics break off. Poland goes north, leans on the Lithuanians until they agree to a new Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, they may even crown a new King just to earn brownie points with Britain.
TheRomanSlayer
Kayabangan, Dugo, at Dangal
If it was a White regime led by Kolchak, I would suspect that he might pull a Franco and stabilize Russia long enough to get its house back in order and try to attract foreign investors into the country. I could see the likes of Henry Ford being lured by greater profits into building an automotive plant in a non-communist Russia that is business friendly, for example.
If it was a regime led by Wrangel or Denikin, at the very best it might resemble KMT China, with various business cliques fighting for power and the authority of Wrangel or Denikin would be shaky.
If it was a Tsarist restoration, then they would have a difficult time trying to get their affairs in order, while trying to court American or British investors into a non-communist Russia.
Barring that though, was Russia in any form of financial debt by the time WWI broke out? Because until it finds a way to pay back its debts to its creditors, I don't think there would be incentives to industrialize until the debts are paid.
If it was a regime led by Wrangel or Denikin, at the very best it might resemble KMT China, with various business cliques fighting for power and the authority of Wrangel or Denikin would be shaky.
If it was a Tsarist restoration, then they would have a difficult time trying to get their affairs in order, while trying to court American or British investors into a non-communist Russia.
Barring that though, was Russia in any form of financial debt by the time WWI broke out? Because until it finds a way to pay back its debts to its creditors, I don't think there would be incentives to industrialize until the debts are paid.
bintananth
behind a desk
It's less a matter of "Is White Russia in debt?" and more a matter of "What is White Russia's credit rating?" As long as the creditors are getting paid on time and Western bankers think they'll continue to do so the rating isn't "junk" and they'll have access to affordable Western capital no matter who is running White Russia.
The Russian Civil War means that a lot of the debts owed are uncollectable write-offs because the debtor either no longer exists or is bankrupt and simply can't pay.
It's remaining ones that'll be looked at.
PsihoKekec
Swashbuckling Accountant
A lot hangs on how long the war goes and how bad is the devastation gets. The support of reds was high amongst the industrial workers, killing or imprisoning significant chunk of skilled workforce will stunt the industrial development, communists had big problems in industry due to many skilled workers being killed on the frontlines and replaced with unskilled workers who had no one to train them.
Stolypin was politically dead before he was assassinated, pretty much every faction in Russian politics was against his reforms and was seeking to undermine him.
Skallagrim
Well-known member
You're over-stating it. His 1910 legislative proposal (which would have been the culmination of his efforts) was very narrowly defeated due to a lot of intrigue. In the two years after that, Stolypin's earlier reforms were utterly vindicated, and literally every sector of the economy affected by his reforms increased in productivity (in some cases by considerable margins). By then, of course, Stolypin had been murdered.
If we suppose some POD that avoids his assassination, his return to grace -- and to power -- is essentially a done deal, and he'll be able to complete his reforms after all. (In fact, it's been suggested -- although it's purely hypothetical -- that his left-wing assassin was given help by reactionary elements, who knew that if Stolypin lived, he'd certainly be able to finalise his reforms within a year.)
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