Mmmm, Thats fair but I do see two problems here:
1. You arent the German Kaiser, who is probably not going to have the same mindset, and even if you were, you have to deal with an Nationalist Establishment who does. Germany wasnt a absolute monarchy before the war, more a constituional monarchy with more power than wed consider prescient for the monarchy and a indepdent minded military establishment.
2. You arent the French Right, particualy not the Monarchist Right. The smart move for Hitler to make would of been to just gorge on all the German speaking regions he could of gotten and then just build a Anti Communist block. He didnt, because he had deeply rooted ideological desires of conquest. Of course there are big diffrences here, mainly in that you dont have one Adolf Hitler in command. His gambling drove Germany in a direction the Establishment did not want to go. Question is, does the French have this leader?
It's true that I'm not in their shoes, and I'm not expecting Wilhelm II to do the reasonable thing. Of course, given the three points I suggested, a more reasonable Wilhelm has to be a given for that to even happen, so there's that...
As for the French
droite, I do expect them to be more realistic than you suggested initially. Most regimes do, in fact, have a pretty reasonable sense of their position. After a monarchist restoration, France would be facing far-left terrorism. A lot of it. They wouldn't be very stable for the immediate future. This can go two ways: one is that someone like a Pinochet or a Franco seizes power, the other is that someone like Hitler seizes power. I consider the latter to be vastly less likely. Even if it does happen, though, and a "French Hitler" arises... how well would he do, compared to OTL Nazi Germany? If we look at France and Germany one-on-one, it's evident that Germany was stronger -- in both world wars. So an isolated France, trying to "pull a Hitler"? I see that going very wrong for them....
Also leads me to thinking of ways if I was the French Id do this war over again:
1. Build up an Maginot Line while building a force ready to go Blitzkreieg (Degaulle, go have fun!).
I disagree. That's an attempt to fight the last war, which is precisely why France lost so quickly in 1940 in OTL. I'd avoid over-reliance on static defences, and try to use a far more mobile strategy, much as the Mongols once used: leave openings for your enemy to breach, guide him into a pocket, and slaughter him. That's the only decent way to break up the Blitzkrieging Germans. Use their excessive speed against them to cut the advancing forces off from adequate support.
Letting De Gaulle (or whoever) fight his own, uh,
guerre éclair, will probably end up quite a bit like Lee's Gettysburg campaign. Very impressive, but you can't keep up the logistics for that, when your enemy is actually dominant when it comes to the offensive, and is presently invading France. What's De Gaulle going to do? March all the way to Berlin and hope to get there before the German tanks reach Paris? Not exactly credible.
To beat the Germans here, you'd instead have to pull a modern version of what the ancient Germans did to Varus and his legions.
2. Build my alliances with both Italy (still wants that Austrian Clay) and Russia, who is most likely revanchist at this time over the failure to win last time around, especially if Im the Tzarist Autocracy whose legitimacy is drawn from leadership of the Slavic world.
This would work, presumably.
3. Build a Intel network among the numerous nationalists in Austria Hungry, then prep them with weapons and the like.
Attempts of these nature have often failed pretty dramatically. I wouldn't put my faith in this.
4. Convince Britian that I will be a better freind to British Interests on the continent than Germany as I split up their power on the continet. The Brits just did not like a dominating power on the continet in Principle, so Germany split three diffrent ways between me, Italy and Russia works quite well.
In this timeline, France is perceived as the lunatic power that attacked Germany and escalated the last war for no good reason, motivated by pure spite. And then lost. Now, you suggest, France wants to try
again? And it wants Britain to join the "two-times losers club"?
Germany might be looking a bit powerful, sure, but the league of frothy-mouthed revanchists is
not a better alternative.
5. Wait for something convenient (Outrage in Alsace Lorraine, or the Germans having to go crush a Rebellion in say Poland), then activate my three-pronged plan by imploding Austria, going deep into Germany from both Alsace and Austria, boxing in the Germans from three sides.
There was no outrage in Alsace Lorraine in OTL, as far as I know. And why would the Germans have to crush a rebellion in Poland? Given the varios other countries that would have received Hohenzollerns on the throne, I think Poland would be put under a Catholic Habsburg. While far from ideal, this would be a massive improvement for the Poles, who'd remember what it was like being part of Russia. With Russia on the French side, the consequences for Poland of a German defeat are glaringly obvious: back under the Russian yoke! They'll fight under the Kaiser's flag before letting
that happen.
6. Divide Europe between us all, I take Western Germany, Russia gets all its shit back and extras and Italy gets to play king maker in the Balkans.
That's a nice dream.