Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

Agent23 said:

Sure, sure, please enlighten me, oh self-proclaimed expert in everything.


Sure, sure, pipelines leading to nowhere, since the Russians would not let you drill for oil in their back yard after you try and take so much of what they see as their and with good reason.
The other major players probably being Turkey and China, with them having more interest in getting the oil flowing through their territory, e.g. something akin to Nabucco, or the other way towards China.

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And here you have it, one of the results of this war and Ukraine's fate after it will be deciding how much of Black Sea exactly will be Russia's backyard.

Agent23 said:

Now the pole thinks it is an expert in network cables, too.
Tell me, what is the difference between packet and circuit switching and between a hub and a switch?

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What is this, a networking theory 101 exam?
Who the hell uses hubs anymore these days. Some scrooge i guess.

Agent23 said:

The End Of The Century-Old Black Sea Drilling Dream.
Turkey tried for over 50 years.
Russia tried, Romania tried, we tried, Exxon and a bunch of other western companies tried.
If there was a major oil field under there,don't you think that we would have found it already?
Keep dreaming and digging for random crap to justify your nonsense.

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Yeah, digging for random crap is what oil companies will keep doing.
"Don't look for oil and gas, if there was any it would be found already" is a pretty bad case of not having a clue, the whole bloody point of exploratory drilling is to find what wasn't found before, and you can't know for sure until you try, if no one did it the "proven reserves" would never increase and the peak oil doomsayers would be inherently right. The legal and security risks of "Russian world" are pretty high on the list of reasons why this area is still poorly explored.

Agent23 said:

This map probably shows the pro and anti-Russia sentiments best.
The fact that the neo-nazis and western media have been suppressing them and manufacturing bullshit polls is irrelevant.

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Ah, so the 2001 census was a bullshit pool lead by nazis?

It does show that the scale of existence of pro-Russian sentiment is highly variable depending on the unobstructed, continuing operation of Russian propaganda and perhaps other tricks too. Why does this sentiment disappear so mysteriously in other years, when there is no extended effort (or ability to do it) related to glorious Russian world taking over from le evil western pawns?
As i said, if Putin and his advisors took this quite... optimistic assessment you present here seriously, which is quite likely, that explains their current mistake. Unfortunately for them, its quite optimistic even for 2010, and they can only wish it was 2010 again when it comes to the support they have, as that was before Russia's recent slights against Ukraine happened, revealing quite a few vital pieces of information about how Russia views the relationship, that were not exactly making Russia look good. The liberal application of "beatings will continue until morale improves" strategy to Ukraine really did a number on Russia's popularity there.

Marduk said:

And here you have it, one of the results of this war and Ukraine's fate after it will be how much of Black Sea exactly will be Russia's backyard.

What is this, a networking theory 101 exam?
Who the hell uses hubs anymore these days. Some scrooge i guess.

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Congratulations, you have proven that you might be on your way to be eligible to take CCENT.
And I do know a crotchety old Informatics professor or two that still asks that question, or used to 10 or so years ago, but the fact that this is part of networking theory and that some switches still default to hub mode when overloaded is besides the point.

Marduk said:

Yeah, digging for random crap is what oil companies will keep doing.
"Don't look for oil and gas, if there was any it would be found already" is a pretty bad case of not having a clue, the whole bloody point of exploratory drilling is to find what wasn't found before, and you can't know for sure until you try, if no one did it the "proven reserves" would never increase and the peak oil doomsayers would be inherently right. The legal and security risks of "Russian world" are pretty high on the list of reasons why this area is still poorly explored.

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Which part of "The black sea has been searched for decades" do you not understand?
You might as well look under Krakov or Kiev.
The Oil of Kiev.

Marduk said:

Ah, so the 2001 census was a bullshit pool lead by nazis?

It does show that the scale of existence of pro-Russian sentiment is highly variable depending on the unobstructed, continuing operation of Russian propaganda and perhaps other tricks too. Why does this sentiment disappear so mysteriously in other years, when there is no extended effort (or ability to do it) related to glorious Russian world taking over from le evil western pawns?

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Oh, I don't know, perhaps the last free-ish elections are a better barometer of public sentiment.
You know, before the nazis and the US state department did their little coup or started interfering hard in Ukraine.

Marduk said:

As i said, if Putin and his advisors took this quite... optimistic assessment you present here seriously, which is quite likely, that explains their current mistake. Unfortunately for them, its quite optimistic even for 2010, and they can only wish it was 2010 again when it comes to the support they have, as that was before Russia's recent slights against Ukraine happened, revealing quite a few vital pieces of information about how Russia views the relationship, that were not exactly making Russia look good. The liberal application of "beatings will continue until morale improves" strategy to Ukraine really did a number on Russia's popularity there.

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As opposed to Nuland's "Fuck the EU" and the Ukronazis using human shields and the Zelenski regime lying through their teeth and banning all opposition and jailing and killing journalists and dissidents while the majority of men in Ukraine try to dodge conscription?
Sure, sure.

Look, I have pictures of your new housemate:

Agent23 said:

Which part of "The black sea has been searched for decades" do you not understand?
You might as well look under Krakov or Kiev.
The Oil of Kiev.

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Every region where new oil is found "has been searched for decades". Exploration techniques and technologies are constantly improving, what was missed with previous ones may be found with new.
Turkey is establishing new viable gas fields there already.
On top of that changes in extraction technologies may change what counts as recoverable and economically feasible to extract.
The potential is definitely there, especially if we count the stuff that will need new technologies.

In this study, by using the literature seismic and other data of the Black Sea such as salinity, porosity of the sediments, common gas type, temperature distribution and pressure gradient, it was estimated that up to 71.8 (median) standard trillion cubic meters (tcm) of CH4 can be available in the Black Sea

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Of course the part of Black Sea around Crimea, and to lesser degree, Ukraine coast, had exploration efforts wind down over last decade due to the Crimea takeover and all the legal and political uncertainty caused by this, all the serious oil companies hate this kind of risks.
But this kind of roadblocks doesn't mean there is nothing to find, just that there needs to be a more suitable geopolitical situation for them to consider it worth looking.

Agent23 said:

Oh, I don't know, perhaps the last free-ish elections are a better barometer of public sentiment.
You know, before the nazis and the US state department did their little coup or started interfering hard in Ukraine.

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Lol, here we have a new definition of free election - Russia simps win

Agent23 said:

As opposed to Nuland's "Fuck the EU" and the Ukronazis using human shields and the Zelenski regime lying through their teeth and banning all opposition and jailing and killing journalists and dissidents while the majority of men in Ukraine try to dodge conscription?
Sure, sure.

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Fuck the EU is a position not that unpopular in the EU itself too
Spare me the Russian propaganda talking points about muh Nazis, go join Antifa if you obsess about Nazis as much as them.
So they don't tolerate spies and have conscription, how is that worse than Russia?
At least they don't have to lie that they don't send conscript to the front while sending them anyway

Marduk said:

Every region where new oil is found "has been searched for decades". Exploration techniques and technologies are constantly improving, what was missed with previous ones may be found with new.
Turkey is establishing new viable gas fields there already.

Turkey to Revise Upward Its Major Gas Discovery in Black Sea

www.bloomberg.com

On top of that changes in extraction technologies may change what counts as recoverable and economically feasible to extract.
The potential is definitely there, especially if we count the stuff that will need new technologies.

Investigation of gas hydrate potential of the Black Sea and modelling of gas production from a hypothetical Class 1 methane hydrate reservoir in the Black Sea conditions

Gas hydrate deposits which are found in deep ocean sediments and in permafrost regions are supposed to be a fossil fuel reserve for the future. The Bl…

www.sciencedirect.com

Of course the part of Black Sea around Crimea, and to lesser degree, Ukraine coast, had exploration efforts wind down over last decade due to the Crimea takeover and all the legal and political uncertainty caused by this, all the serious oil companies hate this kind of risks.

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Yeah, sure, sure, and soon we will discover unicorns farting rainbows there, too.
All of this crap started appearing in the news after the Maidan coup and Russia taking the area.
Maybe some people are trying to rope in the gullible for their little Commonwealth restoration crusade or just capitalizing on the Muh Russia histeria, or searching for reasons to sell aid to Ukraine to the public?

Marduk said:

Lol, here we have a new definition of free election - Russia simps win

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Sounds fairer than the USA's last presidential election, and the EU's, you will vote until you vote the way we want approach, wouldn't you say?

Marduk said:

Fuck the EU is a position not that unpopular in the EU itself too

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Polexit when?

Marduk said:

Spare me the Russian propaganda talking points about muh Nazis, go join Antifa if you obsess about Nazis as much as them.
So they don't tolerate spies and have conscription, how is that worse than Russia?
At least they don't have to lie that they don't send conscript to the front while sending them anyway

Putin’s Conscript Problem

After he denied that Russian draftees were fighting in Ukraine, military officials said otherwise. It exacerbates an already sensitive issue.

thedispatch.com

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Translation, Marduk is saying: "Ree, ree, Antifa, russian hackers, ree" which I interpret as "I win."

Agent23 said:

Yeah, sure, sure, and soon we will discover unicorns farting rainbows there, too.
All of this crap started appearing in the news after the Maidan coup and Russia taking the area.
Maybe some people are trying to rope in the gullible for their little Commonwealth restoration crusade or just capitalizing on the Muh Russia histeria, or searching for reasons to sell aid to Ukraine to the public?

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Who gives a shit about what appears in news. Do your own research, or let journos do it for you and be pulled into their narrative of the week. The oil companies were interested long before and will continue to be long after this gets stale as news.

Agent23 said:

Sounds fairer than the USA's last presidential election, and the EU's, you will vote until you vote the way we want approach, wouldn't you say?

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How is that even different? The point is the same, if my option didn't win it wasn't a fair election.

Agent23 said:

Polexit when?

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Who the fuck knows?

Agent23 said:

Translation, Marduk is saying: "Ree, ree, Antifa, russian hackers, ree" which I interpret as "I win."

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At being dollar (ruble?) store antifa, yes, you do.

Marduk said:

At being dollar (ruble?) store antifa, yes, you do.

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Agent23 said:

Translation, Marduk is saying: "Ree, ree, Antifa, russian hackers, ree" which I interpret as "I win."

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Agent23 said:

Translation, Marduk is saying: "Ree, ree, Antifa, russian hackers, ree" which I interpret as "I win."

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Wait, you're saying the Russian hackers are also conscripts? This could explain some of the quality problems.

Agent23 said:

This map probably shows the pro and anti-Russia sentiments best.

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Let's suppose for the sake of argument that your claim is correct for 2010. Has anything changed since 2010 that might sour Ukrainians' opinion of Russia? Hmm...

strunkenwhite said:

Wait, you're saying the Russian hackers are also conscripts? This could explain some of the quality problems.

Let's suppose for the sake of argument that your claim is correct for 2010. Has anything changed since 2010 that might sour Ukrainians' opinion of Russia? Hmm...

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Well, their economy tanked and all sorts of shifty characters like Azov/Aidar/Right Sector took power, as well as Oligarchic puppets like Zelenski taking over.
Same Zelenski that muzzled his opposition, went back on his promises, has direct connections to an Oligarch according to the paradise papers, and who has had his government constantly peddle disinformation like the Ghost of Kiev.
Same Azov that bombed Donbass for 8 years and killed over 16 thousand people and that is using living shields now.
Also, one thing I have not seen the Ukrainians do is distribute food and evacuate people, while the Russians are doing that if you look at non-MSM, non-big tech sources.
Also, a lot of the Ukrainian hardliners are getting systematically yeeted out of Ukraine, they have lost about 10% of their population, and I doubt those come from the pro-Russian half.
Frankly I think that the slow, gradual take over, the heavily trumpeted involvement of the dreaded Chechens and the Russians constantly trying to set up humanitarian corridors has the purpose of yeeting Ukrainians out of the East.

So, yeah, I think that once the dust settles and the Ukrainian population has some time to assimilate the massive dissonance between Twitter and reality, and when they eat a bit more Russian aid, they will probably become a lot more pro-Putin.

Agent23 said:

Also, one thing I have not seen the Ukrainians do is distribute food and evacuate people, while the Russians are doing that if you look at non-MSM, non-big tech sources.

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I wonder if that's because you are eschewing MSM sources in favor of suckling at the teat of Russian propaganda?

strunkenwhite said:

I wonder if that's because you are eschewing MSM sources in favor of suckling at the teat of Russian propaganda?

Hungry Ukrainians Trapped By Russian Attacks Get Food Deliveries From Drivers Risking Their Lives

Ukraine-based MHP is giving away 330 tons of chicken daily, but the trick is transporting it to hungry people under siege.

www.forbes.com

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The MSM shilled against GamerGate, against Trump and for lock-downs and forced jabs and for Biden.
They shilled against Brexit.
They denied denied the validity of Hunter Biden's laptop.
Why the fuck should I even give them the light of day?

Agent23 said:

Why the fuck should I even give them the light of day?

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You don't have to, but don't act like not seeing something is meaningful when you have your eyes closed.

Agent23 said:

Oh, that hugbox shithole.Figures.

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Still useful to get free flags and maps. Like the one I sent you.

@Agent23 the funniest thing is one of the bastards thought about another user was me.

I shit you not that guy had nothing better in his head than remembering me!

TheRejectionist said:

@Agent23 the funniest thing is one of the bastards thought about another user was me.

I shit you not that guy had nothing better in his head than remembering me!

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Lol!
Little shit must be pissed because somebody is calling out his bullshit.
I wonder if he has google alerts set up for when his nickname pops up or he is just one of the numerous leftards that have a voyeurism fetish.

strunkenwhite said:

Honestly, in the hypothesis, it would be quite interesting. The interior would still be served by the Mississippi and its tributaries (as well as the Gulf), while the northern states like Michigan would have Great Lakes access for shipping.

I mean trade would still be turbofucked if the borderless movement of goods provided by the Union broke down, but it wouldn't be as bad as it could be.

Is it as historically accurate as "JFK"?

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I am not familiar with Stone's other work, but JFK is listed as a political thriller, not a documentary.

Chiron said:

As Kyiv's control crumbles, the militias they raised with little control will become ever more vicious.

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yeah, also the Ukrainian SBU(KGB/Gestapo),and IMHO a lot of these rabid dogs will cause a lot of very conspicuous damage on their way out, and whatever parts of Ukraine are left under Russian control will be thankful to Putin and the Chechens for yeeting them out.
The problem is that many of them will be yeeted out into the EU and turn into a new mafia.
Good thing I am not Polish, Romanian or German or a Balt.

Chiron said:

New identification symbols. A red Z instead of O.

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Everybody is getting in on the 'Z' business.I'd bet that the V will turn into a blue or green Z at some point soon.

paulobrito said:

Russians are masters of resurrection, i see. Tanks, fuel tanks, anti-aircraft warfare, MLRS, and arty too...

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At this rate the losses shall be negative in a few more weeks.

Agent23 said:

Lol!
Little shit must be pissed because somebody is calling out his bullshit.
I wonder if he has google alerts set up for when his nickname pops up or he is just one of the numerous leftards that have a voyeurism fetish.

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Pretty big talk for someone who has to have me on ignore.

paulobrito said:

Russians are masters of resurrection, i see. Tanks, fuel tanks, anti-aircraft warfare, MLRS, and arty too...

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True Russian losses are one tenth of the March 19 numbers.

Ukrainians are inflating Russian losses by a factor of 10.

planefag said:

So over the last few days I have noticed a distinct trend in the images of destroyed Russian vehicles: They're all from the Mykolaiv oblast:







And since I'm at media limit, three more asplodes. Guys? I think something bad happened to the Russians north and/or west of Kherson. Just a hunch.

Also big 'ol 48 hour update. There was just too much for me to sift through in one day but an extra 12+ hours brought a wealth of new information. The way information trickles in means a lot of supposition and guesswork is often disproven later, or dramatically confirmed. That's why I try to confirm as much as possible by hunting around for different sources and try to gauge the "confidence level" in these developments; the picture over time is the most important factor.

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The SPG is also operated by Ukraine and half the images just show completely burnt out shells with 0 way to ID them.

OSINT is basically a bunch of randos grabbing at sand and calling it gold dust, it seems.

I think I'll stick to Pat Lancaster and RWA.

Vaermina said:

Funny that you say that.

Pro-Kremlin tabloid reports that nearly 10,000 Russian troops have been killed in Ukraine

The numbers, which were far higher than previous figures released by Russia, were quickly scrubbed from the pro-Kremlin site.

www.businessinsider.com

Even Russia seems to agree that they've had nearly 10k troops die so far.

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They were hacked.
Which was something you were cheering about not too long ago.

BlackDragon98 said:

True Russian losses are one tenth of the March 19 numbers.

Ukrainians are inflating Russian losses by a factor of 10.

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So, I'm sorry to bother you here but I just want to verify that you in fact believe that Russians have suffered less than 1,500 killed in Ukraine since the "special" invasion began. I know you literally just said that but it's pretty incredible to me so I wanted to say it in different words and have it reconfirmed if you don't mind.

BlackDragon98 said:

They were hacked.

Which was something you were cheering about not too long ago.

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I am sure you can prove that they were hacked?