Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

I can assure you.
people like @planefag have done better military assessments then those of the pro Russians.
The Estonian has done better then pro Russian sources.
The Chieftan has done better then pro Russian sources, and he is barley commenting on it and isn't pro either side and is staying quiet about it.
Task and Purpose are doing a better job and Cappy is ex infantry.

The whole thing is, the military people who are doing so called assessments for the Russian side, are doing a horrible job and taking the Russians at face value.

I trust the sources I mentioned more because each one besides Planefag AFAIK, has prior Military experience and actually can back up thier claims.

You have people like me that this shit is my job.

I just see "SEE THIS ONE GUY WHO SAYS HE IS MILITARY OR WAS IS SAYING HOW BAD THE IKRAINIANS ARE SUFFERING AND TRYONG TO PROVE THE BDA PEOPLE WRONG"
 
paulobrito said:
Oh, i still remember the number of times the US declared some ISIS or Al-Qaeda dude killed, and said bastard re-appear time and again.
Face it, during warfare thinking that someone is dead and is being dead are very different things.
Like, for example:
You receive info that the target is in place X, so you bombard place X. And report the target dead.
But, he can survive or not even be present.
That happened time and again in all wars.
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Which is why intel is such an important thing in wars
 
All of you just do as you do with cretinous celebrity cunts like Brie Larson or Seth Rogen.

Don't fucking trust anyone.

Especially on anything relatively mainstream such as Youtube or Twitter.
 
TheRejectionist said:
All of you just do as you do with cretinous celebrity cunts like Brie Larson or Seth Rogen.

Don't fucking trust anyone.

Especially on anything relatively mainstream such as Youtube or Twitter.
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And so you're proposed alternative would be.....what? Fly to Ukraine and do our own recon? Ignore everything we hear and have no opinion until someone writes the definitive account of the war 30 years from now?
 
Chiron said:
No it is not, and actual experts looking at these photos can't substantiate the bulk of the claims due to lack of markings, incorrect weather, no one around, in a few cases clear Russian Troops in Uniform with captured Ukrainian Gear being mislabeled. Wrecks so destroyed as to make verification impossible. Etc.

Oryx's list is utterly worthless.
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The cope is strong with this one, given that a great deal of this equipment is not in use by both sides - the vehicles in question have been customized into distinct variants, and people like Oryx are incredible autists that can tell this shit apart just based on antenna whips and other shit glued onto the turret. Never you mind that the primary Ukrainian battle tank is the old-ass T-64BV, which is only operated by Russia's puppet "rebels" and not in very great numbers. Ukraine's T-72 is the "AMT" model and its ERA layout makes it very distinctive, and they operate too few T-80s to be worth mentioning. Same goes for most of the Russian MRAPs. Which makes the staggering disparity of tanks seen knocked out or captured (350 for Russia, 86 for Ukraine) rather telling - if Russia's doing so well, why don't they prove it and post more video or photographic evidence of knocked out Ukrainian armor?

TheRejectionist said:
All of you just do as you do with cretinous celebrity cunts like Brie Larson or Seth Rogen.

Don't fucking trust anyone.

Especially on anything relatively mainstream such as Youtube or Twitter.
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Tell that to the copeniks on here who post Telegram links of some asshole spouting laughable lies as proof of Glorious Rodina's Epic Advances.

 
planefag said:
The cope is strong with this one, given that a great deal of this equipment is not in use by both sides - the vehicles in question have been customized into distinct variants, and people like Oryx are incredible autists that can tell this shit apart just based on antenna whips and other shit glued onto the turret. Never you mind that the primary Ukrainian battle tank is the old-ass T-64BV, which is only operated by Russia's puppet "rebels" and not in very great numbers. Ukraine's T-72 is the "AMT" model and its ERA layout makes it very distinctive, and they operate too few T-80s to be worth mentioning. Same goes for most of the Russian MRAPs. Which makes the staggering disparity of tanks seen knocked out or captured (350 for Russia, 86 for Ukraine) rather telling - if Russia's doing so well, why don't they prove it and post more video or photographic evidence of knocked out Ukrainian armor?
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Because Twitter and Facebook banned them?

And all their posts are on Telegram and in Russian?
 
Agent23 said:
Russia really doesn't give a shit about winning the "information" war, aka making more people screech on social media.
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Well,why then lied then that they do not want to attack? and later said,that they woud take Kiev and denazify Ukraine?
Look on @Chiron sources - they are in english,and say about fighting nazis,evil spirits and bandits ,and liberating ukrainian cities from ukrainians,later helping people which homes they burned.

I agree,that it is very prymitive - but it is still propaganda,exactly the same like used by sralin.
Putin problem is,that:

1.USA gave East Europe to sralin for free,and let him do whatever he pleased there.USA now do not gave Ukrains to Putin,but are sending weapons there.

2.It work on people either really stupid,or knowing that NKWD could take them and their families and send to gulag/mass graves/both,and nobody in USA would care.
That is why people in Poland and Bulgary after 1947 was going on marches and schouting how much they love sralin - becouse otherwise they and their families would suffer.

Now,Putin could do that only to russians and people on captured territories,not to us.
 
BlackDragon98 said:
Because Twitter and Facebook banned them?

And all their posts are on Telegram and in Russian?
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Did RT.com just vanish from the internet or something, or are they pretending most people in the EU aren't already using proxy services?

Agent23 said:
Russia really doesn't give a shit about winning the "information" war, aka making more people screech on social media.
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Don't seem to give a shit about the actual war either given that they're still stuck at their Day 1 positions around Donetsk city lmao

hey

hey

how's that cauldron coming along
 
Another audit of Oryx's work





Weather is consistent with meteorological data.



UkA pilots did good flying low through gaps in SHORAD. Unfortunately, Russia has a lot more gas stored all along the front.



Quite a character...



Ru MoD release and forwarded to Telegram.

The War in Ukraine

Current situation. Russians are anchoring on the Irpin-Bucha River and anchoring around Chernihiv of which the only bridge out was blown. Julian Roepecke's announcements of a full withdrawal are not supported by the Ukrainian Defense Ministry.

And Tiktoks of civilians driving around Ivankiv and seeing smoke is not indicative of anything.

Given how often UkA Claims prove to be bullshit, we will just have to wait till actual flag raising pictures show up.

In any event, the Russians have a solid lodgment across the Donets at Izium and with the fresh reinforcements can begin the second phase.

Also those crowing about the draft announcement, that is standard every year by Russian Law requiring the President to announce the yearly draft and sign it. These soldiers will not see combat this year.
 
ATP said:
Well,why then lied then that they do not want to attack? and later said,that they woud take Kiev and denazify Ukraine?
Look on @Chiron sources - they are in english,and say about fighting nazis,evil spirits and bandits ,and liberating ukrainian cities from ukrainians,later helping people which homes they burned.
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Um, usually those sources are few and far between, and often other sources that are purely in Russian have a lot more stuff and push it out faster.
Channels like Intel Slava Z and ASB military news are few, far between and soliciting crypto donations, so they are just your rando Russian/Belarussian/other pro-Russia poster doing this stuff for personal enjoyment.

Russia has invested a hell of a lot less in any and all information war and social media presence, probably because Putin and most of the higher-ups in Russia are basically soviet boomers and because neither they nor those beneath them really believe in the crowd having an actual, free will and not being manipulated by various western oligarchies and deep state blobs.
 
Man.

I always supported Ukraine but expected it to be occupied in short order when this started. Now, based on the information bubble of mainstream corporate/liberal media, Reddit, and SpaceBattles I'm pretty convinced the Ukrainians are actually going to win.

BTW, what the actual fuck?

This is as if the US invaded Canada and got beaten back. I legitimately can't believe Russia's apparent military incompetence in planning for nothing except a successful coup. Even if the resistance was zero it looks like Russian troops would've still been stranded from what we've seen, what with it being a three day drive to Kyiv and having fuel for one day. This is the most ridiculous defeat in modern history.

Nobody pro-Russia was claiming this would be a long slog of a war at the beginning of this. I am legitimately baffled at how Russia could be in any tactical retreat from anywhere given the forces they have, if they had a solid plan. As far as I can tell no solid plan was made at all.

The sheer impressiveness of Russian forces being pushed back right now, even if I'm wrong and Russia somehow still wins, points to incredible flaws in Russian planning and execution of the war.

My best take on this is the argument that invasions are just hard in the current technological paradigm and most military forces would do this poorly. But if that's the case, then deciding to invade at all is clearly a terrible idea and a competent organization would never have tried it.

I'm curious what the counter-arguments are from the pro-Russia side right now, as their earlier arguments seem largely disproven.
 
WyldCard4 said:
This is as if the US invaded Canada and got beaten back. I legitimately can't believe Russia's apparent military incompetence in planning for nothing except a successful coup. Even if the resistance was zero it looks like Russian troops would've still been stranded from what we've seen, what with it being a three day drive to Kyiv and having fuel for one day. This is the most ridiculous defeat in modern history.
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A former superpower trying to maintain a regional superpower's army on the budget of a middle power with a bonus of corruption and eating up own propaganda to the point of overconfidence does that. They keep a whole lot of nice stuff on the roster... but corners get cut wherever possible. Training, logistics, maintenance, supplies, support equipment, very expensive nitty gritty electronic equipment. Everything that doesn't result in news headlines if neglected (and in few cases that got neglected anyway, hence news headlines like the silly adventures of Kuznetsov) and doesn't need to be shown on parades is negotiable.
No one really knew the true scale of institutional rot of Russian military until it was forced to move more than few usual expeditionary units into proper combat.
Even i got surprised by how badly it got hamstrung by the supply situation, and i was expecting them to get stalemated to begin with, just on the issue of taking over cities and controlling territory without having a sufficient amount of infantry available, not before even getting to that point in most places.
WyldCard4 said:
Nobody pro-Russia was claiming this would be a long slog of a war at the beginning of this.
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That's the thing, being pro-Russia is highly correlated with accepting the word of Russian PR...
Something even the people who order that PR have apparently done, even when out of all people they should have known better.
 
Marduk said:
A former superpower trying to maintain a regional superpower's army on the budget of a middle power with a bonus of corruption and eating up own propaganda to the point of overconfidence does that. They keep a whole lot of nice stuff on the roster... but corners get cut wherever possible. Training, logistics, maintenance, supplies, support equipment, very expensive nitty gritty electronic equipment. Everything that doesn't result in news headlines if neglected (and in few cases that got neglected anyway, hence news headlines like the silly adventures of Kuznetsov) and doesn't need to be shown on parades is negotiable.
No one really knew the true scale of institutional rot of Russian military until it was forced to move more than few usual expeditionary units into proper combat.
Even i got surprised by how badly it got hamstrung by the supply situation, and i was expecting them to get stalemated to begin with, just on the issue of taking over cities and controlling territory without having a sufficient amount of infantry available, not before even getting to that point in most places.

That's the thing, being pro-Russia is highly correlated with accepting the word of Russian PR...
Something even the people who order that PR have apparently done, even when out of all people they should have known better.
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They were overly-optimistic, which is a problem.
They have tried to reduce casualties to a minimum.
Their strategic objective was securing the Donbass and taking out all of the Ukronazis as well as destroying Ukraine's war-making potential.
between all of the wrecked aircraft, drones, repair and fuel facilities and military plants, Donbass being reinforced and the main Ukrainian army getting the noose slowly tightened around it I do believe that Russia has reached most of its objectives.
And while it would have been lovely to see Kiev take over and the dumb clown marched in chains before a court that sadly wasn't the Russian objective.

You keep jacking off to the weak version of Schrodinger's Russians, who are a menace to all of Europe, but can't take one impoverished Eastern European country, though.
 
Agent23 said:
They were overly-optimistic, which is a problem.
They have tried to reduce casualties to a minimum.
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How? By not mobilizing some 5-6 figure number of conscripts, giving them 80's kit (optimistically) and throwing them into the fray in hope to overwhelm the other side with sheer numbers?
Agent23 said:
Their strategic objective was securing the Donbass and taking out all of the Ukronazis as well as destroying Ukraine's war-making potential.
Click to expand...
Fiction. If that fiction was true there would be no failed Kyiv push, and the reassigned resources could in fact make the other fronts less of a shitshow.
Agent23 said:
between all of the wrecked aircraft, drones, repair and fuel facilities and military plants, Donbass being reinforced and the main Ukrainian army getting the noose slowly tightened around it I do believe that Russia has reached most of its objectives.
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Cope. Russia is doing the most damage to Ukraine's ex-Soviet rust park (which thanks to this kerfuffle will be in large degree replaced by overpriced western shinies straight from production lines), for the price of degrading its own best forces. That's a shit deal if there even was one, for what? Satisfying the delusional propagandist's dreams of stopping Ukraine blitzkrieging Russia that was totally just around the corner?
Package deal of getting Donbabwe plus becoming the most sanctioned country in the world?
Agent23 said:
And while it would have been lovely to see Kiev take over and the dumb clown marched in chains before a court that sadly wasn't the Russian objective.
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That's industrial strength copium. If it wasn't their objective they would not be wasting so much effort on it while other fronts really could have used that stuff.
Fuck, without that front they could have even kept Belarus out of the political fallout to some degree.
Agent23 said:
You keep jacking off to the weak version of Schrodinger's Russians, who are a menace to all of Europe, but can't take one impoverished Eastern European country, though.
Click to expand...
Russiaboos are the only ones jacking off here.
 
Marduk said:
How? By not mobilizing some 5-6 figure number of conscripts, giving them 80's kit (optimistically) and throwing them into the fray in hope to overwhelm the other side with sheer numbers?
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Maybe by not using the massive amounts of artillery and carpet bombings they are known for, as stated by actual military analysts and on the ground witnesses.:rolleyes:

Marduk said:
Ficton.
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Is Ficton a brand of Polish sprats?

Marduk said:
Cope. Russia is doing the most damage to Ukraine's ex-Soviet rust park (which thanks to this kerfuffle will be in large degree replaced by overpriced western shinies straight from production lines), for the price of degrading its own best forces.
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Hardly, although they will have lots of NLAWS and other overpriced western junks to give to the DNR and LNR.

Marduk said:
That's a shit deal if there even was one, for what? Satisfying the delusional propagandist's dreams of stopping Ukraine blitzkrieging Russia that was totally just around the corner?
Package deal of getting Donbabwe plus becoming the most sanctioned country in the world?
Click to expand...
I love the smell of Mardukope in the afternoon, smells like victory.

Marduk said:
That's industrial strength copium.
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Yeah, I know you are using lots of it, but stop ascribing your addictions to others, mkay.


Marduk said:
If it wasn't their objective they would not be wasting so much effort on it while other fronts really could have used that stuff.
Fuck, without that front they could have even kept Belarus out of the political fallout to some degree.

Russiaboos are the only ones jacking off here.
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The attack on Kiev was a blocking/diversionary action, as Scott Ritter has been telling us from the start.
The people Russia wants to aid and the Ukronazis they want to destroy are all in the east.
Oh, and btw, the pullback from Kiev has been pretty limited and in line with their previous opretations, as Chiron mentioned, they are pulling out and rotating VDV troops that will probably see service in other theaters of operations, but do keep living in your western media bubble.

Azov and their ilk are being exterminated or taken into captivity, here is a nice before and after:
 
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Agent23 said:
Maybe by not using the massive amounts of artillery and carpet bombings they are known for, as stated by actual military analysts and on the ground witnesses.:rolleyes:
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>known for
While not being known for being able to bring copious amounts of supplies to the frontline like... the kind of amounts of ammunition said artillery consumes when used without restriction.
>carpet bombing
Dude, wake up, its not 1940's anymore.
Agent23 said:
Is Ficton a brand of Polish sprats?
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Cope harder.

Agent23 said:
Hardly, although they will have lots of NLAWS and other overpriced western junks to give to the DNR and LNR.
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OMG they captured some infantry weapons. How about those VALs and fancy spec ops guns Ukrainians captured? That's not something you capture from random grunts.


Agent23 said:
I love the smell of Mardukope in the afternoon, smells like victory.
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Do you buy bathwater too?


Agent23 said:
Yeah, I know you are using lots of it, but stop ascribing your addictions to others, mkay.
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Cope more.

Agent23 said:
The attack on Kiev was a blocking/diversionary action, as Scott Ritter has been telling us from the start.
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You don't waste at least a third of your forces in the operation on a diversion and keep it up for a month when the "real" actions stagger.

Agent23 said:
The people Russia wants to aid and the Ukronazis they want to destroy are all in the east.
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Lol. So the theory that eastern Ukraine is still pro-Russian just doesn't know it finally goes out of the window?

Agent23 said:
Oh, and btw, the pullback from Kiev has been pretty limited and in line with their previous opretations, as Chiron mentioned, they are pulling out and rotating VDV troops that will probably see service in other theaters of operations, but do keep living in your western media bubble.
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Its still cope that it wasn't their objective at all. The whole point of feints is that they are supposed to be cheap and distract disproportionate forces. If its a feint, its a bloody failure of a feint.
 
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