No one thinks that Russia would win if it went up against Europe. No one thought that before this war, and now no one really thinks that.
But just because Russia can't win doesn't mean Russia can't utterly fuck up Europe in the process. It's not like things are sunshine and rainbows for the Ukrainians, as much as they've impressed the world. It's hardly unreasonable for Europe to be scared of something like that happening to itself.
Well, given the recent counter-attacks by the Ukrainians, I guess the negotiations aren't going well?
Interesting how the Russians will take the hit in their own territory. Counter-attacking is one thing, but actually striking at Russian assets in Russia? Especially with how much effort the Kremlin has put into talking up their air defenses.
Who wants to bet NATO noticed some holes in Russia's radar coverage and forwarded that information to Ukraine?
Me. I wonder if this was a temporary hole that NATO noticed in time or if the US/NATO is trying to sabotage peace talks? Even if I'm 70% sure the Russians don't actually intend to settle for half the country at this point.
Man.
I always supported Ukraine but expected it to be occupied in short order when this started. Now, based on the information bubble of mainstream corporate/liberal media, Reddit, and SpaceBattles I'm pretty convinced the Ukrainians are actually going to win.
Oh, they aren't. Ukraine has already lost. What form that takes is really up to what happens next. If they surrender soon, they'll be able to "enjoy" being a puppet state of Russia. If they continue to struggle, one of two things will probably happen. Either Russia eventually grinds them into the dirt, turning a large portion of the country into a burning hole that will produce terrorists for the next generation or so--or Russia is unable to conquer the entire country and will take up to the Dnieper River, possibly hold the south, and simply bomb the rest of the country into the stone age.
Either way, expect massive civilian casualties from bombs, bullets, starvation, disease, and exposure to the elements (coming next winter!).
BTW, what the actual fuck?
This is as if the US invaded Canada and got beaten back. I legitimately can't believe Russia's apparent military incompetence in planning for nothing except a successful coup. Even if the resistance was zero it looks like Russian troops would've still been stranded from what we've seen, what with it being a three day drive to Kyiv and having fuel for one day. This is the most ridiculous defeat in modern history.
Logistics like this, I'm told, is actually really difficult and Russia is not (by far) the first great power to suffer this kind of setback because of poor logistical planning. The world has really gotten overused to seeing the US and its NATO allies engage in war or in armies that need to cover small distances. Russia is vast, the battlespace is vast, and that really complicates things. The Russians are literally invading a country the size of Texas with very few geographical barriers. And against a NATO-armed and NATO-trained military force.
Nobody pro-Russia was claiming this would be a long slog of a war at the beginning of this. I am legitimately baffled at how Russia could be in any tactical retreat from anywhere given the forces they have, if they had a solid plan. As far as I can tell no solid plan was made at all.
Actually, I'm not too surprised. I expected that fighting would intensify to a near standstill when we got to make cities. The Ukrainians would have simpler logistics and would easily hold the defensive advantage. What surprises me is that the Russians have suffered such heavy losses in personnel, armor, and aircraft. Part of that is NATO's doing; the stingers and javelins are taking their toll. The Ukrainians have also been really good at hiding their mobile radars and I suspect that NATO is helping in any way it can.
The sheer impressiveness of Russian forces being pushed back right now, even if I'm wrong and Russia somehow still wins, points to incredible flaws in Russian planning and execution of the war.
My best take on this is the argument that invasions are just hard in the current technological paradigm and most military forces would do this poorly. But if that's the case, then deciding to invade at all is clearly a terrible idea and a competent organization would never have tried it.
I'm curious what the counter-arguments are from the pro-Russia side right now, as their earlier arguments seem largely disproven.
Russia has to win at this point. The costs thus far have been too high for Russia to just take the L. It would basically mean the end of Putin and his allies. That simply is not going to happen while Putin breathes. Instead, I fear that this will only make the Russians angrier and crueler. If Putin wasn't ordering his soldiers to shell the shit out of Ukraine before, he will now. The loss of face this past week is simply not going to be acceptable.
Also expect a fair amount of people responsible for this military bungle to be tried for treason or simply assassinated.
That said, keep in mind we're about a month into this. Wars can last years. A month into this campaign, even with significant failures, is not the end-all, be-all. Keep in mind that this is probably one of the most broadcasted (across all media platforms) war in human history. We're seeing a lot more success and failures in real time than we would see anywhere else. That makes propaganda double as important, because now opponents can inflict psychological damage on an unprepared civilian population that would otherwise be shielded from all but the largest military disasters. That's why Zelensky and his ministers have been working overtime to overemphasize those losses and push it to the headlines. He's also been able to encourage more aid than he would have gotten otherwise.
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