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May the Peace of Blake be with you.
Precentor Dune
Funny how all those western anti-tank weapons are making it to the front by the thousands despite the "aIr tHreAt," huh.
Maybe the mods could clarify something for me. We are, of course, supposed to avoid arguing over the veracity of "sources" as it leads to endless circular bickering. But what, exactly, qualifies as a source? Even the information I'm collating is sourced to, well, other primary sources, as journalists do. But I keep seeing shitheads with a Twitter account just saying shit and this shit being asserted to be True, with the source being "dude trust me." What is the standard here? Does it have to be said on Twitter? Does the person saying it have to claim Credentials? Do those credentials actually have to stand scrutiny? At what point does it qualify as "news" worthy of being posted in this here news thread, as opposed to some clown making it the fuck up? If we presume we cannot know who is and isn't making shit up, does the newsworthiness lie in who is making up what shit? In which case, does that mean potential lies uttered by Side A and Side B count as news, as they are belligerents, but horseshit made up by posters on this forum, in this here thread, qualify as the half-assed analysis we are supposed to eschew?
Please clarify these things for me. Because I used to be a modestly Big Deal on Twitter, and I could be again in a goddamned hurry. But since I see certain people just making shit the fuck up right here on the forum, I'm thinking maybe I could save myself the trouble of screwing with birdsite again.
Ideally (lol) we're hoping we'd have responsible posters only post from somewhat reputable and trusted sources on Twitter (even if not presently accurate and obviously biased) to cover this conflict and give the members the benefit of the doubt in that regard. I'd loath having to create some metrics for "curated" sources because that seems pretty gay lame distasteful or in the inverse, let this thread be shit up with whatever.
Furthermore the intent behind the arguing of veracity of sources is to prevent this thread from being mucked up with people arguing endlessly about it here when they can do it in the Donb Ass (or other threads) but if people are going to post their "debunking" via Tweets here it'd only be fair for the whole discussion to remain here or be moved elsewhere (its own thread or the Donb Ass one).
I'd lean towards the latter but I'll canvas the other staff opinions to see if there's anything contrary.
Funny how all those western anti-tank weapons are making it to the front by the thousands despite the "aIr tHreAt," huh.
Maybe the mods could clarify something for me. We are, of course, supposed to avoid arguing over the veracity of "sources" as it leads to endless circular bickering. But what, exactly, qualifies as a source? Even the information I'm collating is sourced to, well, other primary sources, as journalists do. But I keep seeing shitheads with a Twitter account just saying shit and this shit being asserted to be True, with the source being "dude trust me." What is the standard here? Does it have to be said on Twitter? Does the person saying it have to claim Credentials? Do those credentials actually have to stand scrutiny? At what point does it qualify as "news" worthy of being posted in this here news thread, as opposed to some clown making it the fuck up? If we presume we cannot know who is and isn't making shit up, does the newsworthiness lie in who is making up what shit? In which case, does that mean potential lies uttered by Side A and Side B count as news, as they are belligerents, but horseshit made up by posters on this forum, in this here thread, qualify as the half-assed analysis we are supposed to eschew?
Please clarify these things for me. Because I used to be a modestly Big Deal on Twitter, and I could be again in a goddamned hurry. But since I see certain people just making shit the fuck up right here on the forum, I'm thinking maybe I could save myself the trouble of screwing with birdsite again.
I personally don't care who wins this but it really seems like the Russiaboo's are 99% cope at this point. I mean their "objectives" keep changing repeatedly
I personally don't care who wins this but it really seems like the Russiaboo's are 99% cope at this point. I mean their "objectives" keep changing repeatedly
I personally don't care who wins this but it really seems like the Russiaboo's are 99% cope at this point. I mean their "objectives" keep changing repeatedly
Yeah, but to be fair, the Ukrainianboos were literally making up shit in the first week. Ghost of Kiev anyone? Or farmers using tractors to tow away Russian hardware? The Russians have clearly been pushed back. That said, the war is far from over.
The biggest problem with this war for Russia, aside from their shit logistics and maintenance, was the fact that they had clearly planned for this to be a fairly easy operation. The Ukrainians are putting up a much better fight than any of them expected. Now, the plus to the Russians retreating back into Belarus is that NATO will be able to send them more stuff without having to worry about them being intercepted. That was a very real possibility a week ago.
Now, there is I think, the possibility that the Russians are going to re-group and come back with a new plan of attack. Since the Russian leadership no doubt has a more realistic idea of what they're going to be facing, they might be able to ease the pains of logistics for when they attempt to take Kiev again. The downside is now that the Ukrainians know they're coming, the Russians are going to be facing a lot more fighting on the way back down. Still, the very presence of the Russians in Belarus will pose a threat to the Ukrainians, so there is only so many troops they can try and transfer to the eastern front without risking another hit from the Russians to the north.
Yeah, but to be fair, the Ukrainianboos were literally making up shit in the first week. Ghost of Kiev anyone? Or farmers using tractors to tow away Russian hardware? The Russians have clearly been pushed back. That said, the war is far from over.
The biggest problem with this war for Russia, aside from their shit logistics and maintenance, was the fact that they had clearly planned for this to be a fairly easy operation. The Ukrainians are putting up a much better fight than any of them expected. Now, the plus to the Russians retreating back into Belarus is that NATO will be able to send them more stuff without having to worry about them being intercepted. That was a very real possibility a week ago.
Now, there is I think, the possibility that the Russians are going to re-group and come back with a new plan of attack. Since the Russian leadership no doubt has a more realistic idea of what they're going to be facing, they might be able to ease the pains of logistics for when they attempt to take Kiev again. The downside is now that the Ukrainians know they're coming, the Russians are going to be facing a lot more fighting on the way back down. Still, the very presence of the Russians in Belarus will pose a threat to the Ukrainians, so there is only so many troops they can try and transfer to the eastern front without risking another hit from the Russians to the north.
I mean if it was a war for survival that might be the case but the political cost of this debacle may be far too much for this farce to continue for much longer.
I mean if it was a war for survival that might be the case but the political cost of this debacle may be far too much for this farce to continue for much longer.
The issue is that the Russian leadership very likely views this as an existential threat. Even more so given the massive setbacks this campaign has seen. Heavy losses? Sure, they probably foresaw that. Being driven from Kiev? No, I don't think so. This will have made the Russians less secure than they were before. At least they had the delusion of competency before the war began. Now Russia is being confronted with the reality that not only can Ukraine be used as a strategic asset by NATO to pressure Russia, they're now being confronted with the truth that their armed forces are not what they used to be. Contrary to what the media likes to insist, Russia is not doing this because Putin is a colossal douchebag. They feel this is threatening their very existence. Things have gone from bad to worse.
The very least the Russians can accept is taking up to the Dnieper River. There is no going back. The last time the Russians let the Ukrainians have a breath of air, they went from a joke of a military unable to handle the complicated task of firing off rockets to driving back the Red Army. Unless it comes to rebellion back home, Putin is going to throw wave after wave of troops at this problem and he's going to bomb Kiev until its little more than a pile of rubble.
We're probably seeing the worst case scenario play itself out right now. Because now the Russians have to view every able bodied man as a potential future soldier. While I am waiting on confirmation that the retreating Russians have been shooting men...it's a realistic possibility. Civilian casualties are about to go from a "civilians expendable" to "target practice". Genocide is honestly not far off here.
Are we really supposed to be getting upset over looting? I mean, don't get me wrong, it's not the right thing to do--but most of these guys are conscripts. Looting is what poorly trained soldiers do. Has been for thousands of years.
That's far worse--but let's back it up.
First, how many sexual crimes did US soldiers commit in the Middle East? How many of those were covered up? Second, several soldiers raping people is not a rational reason to wish for the destruction of Russia itself--since I rather doubt that Putin told them "make sure to take time out from the war effort to rape children". Finally, these are conscripts. These people are pressed into service with very little choice and probably very little background check (if any). Calling for the death of Russia is as fair as calling for the death of America because some American men rape people. It's entirely irrational.
I mean, the Ukrainians have literal neo-nazis in their National Guard. Confirmed. By their own admission, at least 250 skinheads were admitted into their National Guard. And upwards to a thousand. In their National Guard. And that's before we take into account evidence of Ukrainian militia and troops allegedly shooting their own people, beating their own people, and other abuses of power.
So let's all just chill and wait until some of the dust settles before we start screaming for Russia to be destroyed for war crimes that we haven't even confirmed actually happened.
And being captured by the Russians in such numbers that they are training their own troops on them as seen in multiple videos. UkA transports them in civilian vehicles, hands them to a random fella and his dog, random fella gets a taste of artillery and runs while the dog dies, leaving the ATGMs behind. That and the bulk of UkA forces we see stick to the Soviet Based and Ukrainian built AT Weapons which they can better source and practically all of them know how to use.
And as this fella points out, Russia scrapped and/or sold all their T-64BVs a decade ago. DPR and LPR's own T-64s are a different model and all are accounted for. So any destroyed T-64BV is a Ukranian T-64BV type 2017. Number 2 on Oryx's list is clearly a marked Ukrainian Tank to let other Russians know its out of action so they don't waste ammo on it. It has the digital camo on it and yellow stripes on the barrel. Number 1 on the list, you can see the digital camouflage that didn't burn away, indicating its a UkA Tank. And so on.
Oryx's entire list can be thrown out as unverifiable. Till unit logs are opened after the fighting ceases, he is not a trustworthy source.
And being captured by the Russians in such numbers that they are training their own troops on them as seen in multiple videos. UkA transports them in civilian vehicles, hands them to a random fella and his dog, random fella gets a taste of artillery and runs while the dog dies, leaving the ATGMs behind. That and the bulk of UkA forces we see stick to the Soviet Based and Ukrainian built AT Weapons which they can better source and practically all of them know how to use.
So which is it? Are the Ukrainians so oppressed by Russia's Mighty Omnipresent Air Force that they have to use "single vehicle infiltrations," or are they able to bring Western supplies in by the train and truckload so fast that Russia is totally capturing six hojillion of them every second? 🤔 🤔 🤔 🤔 🤔
And as this fella points out, Russia scrapped and/or sold all their T-64BVs a decade ago. DPR and LPR's own T-64s are a different model and all are accounted for. So any destroyed T-64BV is a Ukranian T-64BV type 2017.
The very least the Russians can accept is taking up to the Dnieper River. There is no going back. The last time the Russians let the Ukrainians have a breath of air, they went from a joke of a military unable to handle the complicated task of firing off rockets to driving back the Red Army. Unless it comes to rebellion back home, Putin is going to throw wave after wave of troops at this problem and he's going to bomb Kiev until its little more than a pile of rubble.
It seems it's not far off, it's here. Or else something close enough there's no need to quibble about it because the actual events are bad enough.
The thing is, Putin doesn't have enough bombs left to destroy Ukraine. His army was either fucked from the start or was already fucked before the war. They can't hold the Dnieper in the medium term as far as I can tell. Russia can't replace its losses and Ukraine is getting new and better equipment because Russia pissed off the West that much. Russia can throw waves of troops at the mess, but with their logistics system and remaining military resources that is literally just killing their own forces for minuscule harm inflicted on Ukraine.
If Putin nukes Ukraine, there's a decent chance NATO ends up organizing the nuclear first strike. There's already calls for that. He can't "just" use nukes for it. The Russian airforce doesn't have enough missiles and bombers to damage Ukraine enough so they'll stop fighting, as we can see when cities are rubble the Ukrainians are still fighting.
So, what do you think happens when the soldiers that held Crimea are dead or forced back? The logistics of their lost materiel means they can't retake it. Ukraine is being given anti-air assets like mad so "bombing them into the stone age" isn't an option. Use of a nuclear weapon in Ukraine carries say, a 25% chance of total nuclear war from the West.
I think Russia's actually going to flat out lose due to collapse of capacity to fight. What I'm not sure about is if Putin decides "screw it" and goes nuclear anyway, or if Russia admits humiliating defeat. I can see arguments for both sides at this point.
I don't see how or why Ukraine would stop. From their national survival perspective, it's already a fight to the death. Nuclear weapons aren't actually an escalation on them, compared to what's happening with "slaughter all Ukrainian men in our territory" and "what is happening to bombarded cities." Any loss of territory is risking the genocide of everyone on the Russian side of the new border.
I am um, really damn pessimistic today, but not sure what options there are.
The very least the Russians can accept is taking up to the Dnieper River. There is no going back. The last time the Russians let the Ukrainians have a breath of air, they went from a joke of a military unable to handle the complicated task of firing off rockets to driving back the Red Army. Unless it comes to rebellion back home, Putin is going to throw wave after wave of troops at this problem and he's going to bomb Kiev until its little more than a pile of rubble.
Even if Russian leadership views this as existential for Russia as opposed to existential for their political future (which could either lead to escape routes other than victory or run up against even more dire existential political danger from continuing the war), I am not sure the reasoning holds. Russia may not run out of men, but it may run out of tanks and planes and non-nuclear missiles fit for use in war against Ukraine. What then? Nuclear weapons? I think that really might provoke internal rebellion, not to mention the western response. Hell, I doubt the Chinese signed up for condoning nuclear first strikes, for that matter.
edit: Come to think of it, there may be considerable infighting among Russian leadership about to commence or perhaps even already underway. Allegedly Putin was misled to believe that conscripts were not being extensively relied on for the invasion's front line forces. Perhaps his way out is to crusade against the dastardly people who pushed Russian boys into the meatgrinder, never mind that he was the one to decree an invasion that couldn't possibly be done without them. Even if both sides agree that Ukraine's west-friendliness is a long-term existential threat to Russia, it would hardly be the first time national security took a back seat to political backstabbing.
So which is it? Are the Ukrainians so oppressed by Russia's Mighty Omnipresent Air Force that they have to use "single vehicle infiltrations," or are they able to bring Western supplies in by the train and truckload so fast that Russia is totally capturing six hojillion of them every second? 🤔 🤔 🤔 🤔 🤔
More like you can't grasp that heavy equipment can't be moved except one by one and at night. Lighter equipment can be moved more easily but an ATGM isn't going to win an artillery duel when its wielded by an untrained civilian who a few weeks ago was working a normal job.
UkA's KORD units use Soviet Based gear exclusively as they can simply capture more and they need to keep moving to avoid getting pinned and destroyed. They can't be lugging Western ATGMs, as their operations are deep in the void zones and they need to appear as Russians till the last moment when they swing into action. Even then many got wasted.
The Donbass "rebels" have been operating captured T-64BVs since 2014. SWING'ANNAMISS
They have 46 T-64s primarily of the B model with the odd A, they lost their BVs in 2014 along with a museum piece IS-2 (they even considered using a company of T-34s at one point but a WW2 Veterans Group bitched), all of these are accounted for and still in action.
You also ignored the fact all the T-64BVs in Oryx's list had digital camo with UkA markings. Russia doesn't use that camo scheme. Aside from giving DPR and LPR units T-72s captured by them, they shipped the bulk of captures to Kubinka.
Also you really need to be more observant.
There are shell marks all over the place and many of the civilians were holding things such as beer bottles, shopping bags, or other things, indicating they were going about their daily lives. Some have white armbands.
Its looking more like civilians were caught out in the open during the UkA advance as they did not know ahead of time that the Russians were withdrawing. Also note in some pictures hands are dirty, but white cloths are clean. Indicating staging of the scene. Also possible that some collaborators were killed by Ukrainian Patriots who know that it will get swept under the rug.
As it stands we have multiple events happening simultaneously most likely and the true story won't be known if ever till after the fighting stops and people can be interviewed, assuming they tell the truth.
This one goes into the mystery pile pending further investigation.
It seems it's not far off, it's here. Or else something close enough there's no need to quibble about it because the actual events are bad enough.
The thing is, Putin doesn't have enough bombs left to destroy Ukraine. His army was either fucked from the start or was already fucked before the war. They can't hold the Dnieper in the medium term as far as I can tell. Russia can't replace its losses and Ukraine is getting new and better equipment because Russia pissed off the West that much. Russia can throw waves of troops at the mess, but with their logistics system and remaining military resources that is literally just killing their own forces for minuscule harm inflicted on Ukraine.
Russia is the second largest manufacturer of weapons in the world with reserve stocks stretching all the way to WW2, including factory fresh T-34s in deep storage which are kept for nostalgia and WW2 movies. They also build more tanks in a year than they lost so far in this war even using Oryx's inflated numbers.
Russia also has the bulk of its forces, some 190,000 plus the 2 corps of DPR and LPR which gives them another 60,000 or so troops. Their losses were light and all units still have 90% of their original troops and equipment and the replacements have been timely. It operates openly during the day, its operational movements are unhindered, while UkA can only move heavy equipment at night and one at a time as the RuAF Night Ops are deadly.
UkA Forces, despite growing to 4 times its active starting size in one month, are largely immobile leg infantry of poor quality. Their fuel reserves are shot, their military industry is destroyed, millions have fled, and they can't keep food aid up with demand. Their Air Force is a nuisance force that is down to 5 sorties a day if that, their navy has no ships, what mobile units they have are largely in technicals and their remaining artillery arm is overmatched by the Russian Artillery Arm. Lastly their economy is destroyed and the EU is stripping themselves bare to give them what they do have at a time when their people are out in the streets demanding their resignations.
This 2nd phase will consist of more WW1 style artillery attrition with short bursts of armored thrusts to unhinge defensive lines till either UkA reserves establish a new line or UkA suffers an operational shock and routes. This is the consequence of defensive technologies making attacks less successful if an opponent is willing to slug it out. Iraqi Insurgents in Fallujah held the city longer in 2014 than the Iraqi Army held Iraq in 2003, and so far UkA has shown that it is willing to slug it out and not be called cowards. Its admirable, I can respect that, but this fight can only go one way and if they lose too many of their cadres in a hopeless force on force fight, they won't have a shadow of a chance to wage an insurgency. Also they have very little time to get the farmers planting or they won't have a crop this year.
Putin feels no need to call up the reserves and has even turned away volunteers who were told to go join DPR and LPR if they were that desperate to get killed. There was no expanded draft this year, and the few conscripts mistakenly sent into the fray were exchanged. The Syrian Volunteers never came despite their enthusiasm as Putin turned them down, Ossetians sent at best an Infantry Battalion to a non-critical area largely to curry favor, Abkhazia doesn't give a fuck, they hate the Russians just as much as they hate the Georgians and only circumstance has them working together. The peace keepers in Nagorno-Kabarakh are still there.
Putin is exchanging able-bodied prisoners, not something you normally do and is a sign of confidence on his part.
Hell, Russian Artillery is no longer bothering to displace anymore. UkA simply can't do effective counter-fires anymore. Its becoming largely a mortar supported force, which is fine when fighting insurgents, horrible when facing an enemy with a functioning artillery arm that can smash you with Drone corrected fires. Also Russian Tanks due to their rifled guns, have in-direct fire capability and practically all of them now have drone support when on the firing line to spot for ATGM teams and the fall of their shots.
There is no help coming for Ukraine, they can either sue for an honorable peace or die martyrs. No one can make that choice for them.
Sorry Comrades, but this post has been taken over the Commissariat for praising the UkA. Now for enlightening propaganda videos.
PS: If my gallows humor offends you, fuck you, there is no justice in the world, only an eternity of carnage and slaughter.
Aaand, everyone is buying Ghost of Kiev News's latest story, again.
Put two and two together, what was left of the draft-age male population probably fled when they heard that the Ukrainians were coming, because they don't want to be drafted.
maybe that is just in line with the high draft dodging rates, especially after these people saw through the Ukrainian propaganda.
US Military is clueless about the 40km truck convoy's disappearance, not realizing or "forgetting" Russia has lots of decoys that look like the real thing.
You could take Oryx's work as a dubious pessimistic upper limit, but even then these losses even accepted at face value are well within the replacement capacity of the Russian Reserve Stocks and Factory new builds.
I would really like to hear more detailed reasoning on this. The losses seem to me totally unsustainable unless losses dramatically slow in pace. The tanks that have been rusting away for 50 years aren't exactly ready to roll straight onto the front lines, or do anything but get immediately destroyed if they were, since they lack the modernization efforts that went into the ones Russia actually kept in service. And they'd need to find replacement crews in many cases.
There are many reasons he might want to do this, ranging from political considerations (to alleviate the unpopularity of conscripts being sent outside Russia only to suffer the indignity of capture) to him being concerned that he needs the manpower more badly than Ukraine does.
More like you can't grasp that heavy equipment can't be moved except one by one and at night. Lighter equipment can be moved more easily but an ATGM isn't going to win an artillery duel when its wielded by an untrained civilian who a few weeks ago was working a normal job.
Youarealying fuckbag. Did they also paintZ's on their tanks too, shithead? To say nothing of the fact that a few T-64BVs have been captured in the current war.
Hell, Russian Artillery is no longer bothering to displace anymore. UkA simply can't do effective counter-fires anymore. Its becoming largely a mortar supported force, which is fine when fighting insurgents, horrible when facing an enemy with a functioning artillery arm that can smash you with Drone corrected fires.
Ukrainian TV channel Espresso published this video with "many civilians killed by russians on the roadside". Now pay a closer look to "dead" body on the right. correction : It's the windshield.
Songs from the Great Patriotic War can be heard on the streets of Mariupol.
