Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
@Batrix2070 this isn't the Soviet Union and they don't have the morale they would should they actually ne attacked.

Numbers arnt a win on modern war.
You can have large numbers but if they are untrained and not morally ready or mentally the first gunfight they will crumble amd be food for the fire.

And in modern war numbers don't mean shit
 

Marduk

Well-known member
Moderator
Staff Member
It depends, the competence of these guys will be about one thing anyway, not to be blind and know how to call in artillery. Whether they know how to shoot matters less.
Any idiot can call for artillery, but it takes a well trained and equipped artillery spotter to do it well and to get it firing where it's supposed to.
And even less important are precisely the young people, it is the older ones who are more important because Russian doctrine assumes full mobilization before the war and not in war, and this is because for the Russian army the professional troops are supposed to be only the backbone of the real army, which ergo many positions that are really necessary were not filled, such as messengers or mechanics, which is precisely the reason for the hopeless display of Russian logistics and downloading equipment and repairing them.
It is precisely the majority of conscripts that will go there, by which the whole thing should start to work better.
That's how it was in the 90's. These "cadre units" were mostly disbanded to free up money for modernisations. A lot of stuff was disappeared along the way too of course.
Then, during the war, a lot of the remaining spare equipment and personnel was again shifted to support the separatist forces, and then even some of the training cadre was decimated to reinforce units in the field.
They are doing the mobilization with only what's left after all that. And 20-30 years of dodgy storage practices for all the reserve equipment that didn't get pawned off. That's how you get pics of half rotten AK's that may well be still in Russia because warlords in Africa refused them on quality grounds.
 
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LordsFire

Internet Wizard
Let me put it this way, the planners who came up with the mobilization system of the USSR and which Russia, despite reforms, still has in an unchanged shape designed a system whose main principle is amorality as well as indifference to the condition of the people inside the machine, what matters is that they are there.

No, the quality really, really, really does matter.

As Marduk said, it takes training and/or experience to call down an artillery strike accurately.

As Zachowon said, if you don't have the morale, you're not ready to fight.


On top of these things, there's the very basic matter of accuracy with a rifle.

If your basic rifleman can't hit the target in the first few shots, odds are that 'target' is going to start shooting back at him. If he can't hit in the next few shots, that 'target' is probably going to hit him first.

This is the most basic bread-and-butter of infantry warfare. Machine guns, artillery, tanks, Javelins, MANPADS, all of that builds on it and changes the game up, but the most basic element of modern warfare is 'Can your guy hit the other guy with a bullet first?'

Last month I shot ~60 rounds in the old gravel pit near where my parents live. Most of it was .22 LR for practice and fun, rounded out with 9 rounds of 30.06 in the rifle I'll actually be hunting deer with in November. My shoulder was sore for three days from the 30.06 rounds.

I've read more than one firsthand account from Russian volunteers months ago, back when their supplies were not as exhausted, and they were processing men through a few hundred/thousand at a time, where they'd get to go to a firing range once, and fire maybe three rounds.

That was it for practice firing.

At that point, you probably don't even know if your sights are zeroed in properly. You certainly don't know how to compensate for the arc of the bullet, recoil, wind, etc. You probably haven't even learned to overcome the instinctive flinch your body has when you realize how much recoil from big rounds hurts.

No training in fire and maneuver. No training in fire discipline. No training in combined arms operations. Certainly no training in how to call in an artillery strike properly.

With the number of incoming conscripts spiking from hundreds/thousands being processed at a time, to three hundred thousand, everything is just going to get worse.

This is how you waste lives. Not how you prepare your soldiers to win a war.
 

Megadeath

Well-known member
Do it Russia and j will be seeing you in Ukraine
Really? I wouldn't think even that would get US boots on the ground. I'd anticipate more that US (Maybe NATO) would use air force and possibly naval elements to just wreck everything Russian in Ukraine in a shortest possible time frame way, then stand almost completely back down to current support.
 

Sailor.X

Cold War Veteran
Founder
Really? I wouldn't think even that would get US boots on the ground. I'd anticipate more that US (Maybe NATO) would use air force and possibly naval elements to just wreck everything Russian in Ukraine in a shortest possible time frame way, then stand almost completely back down to current support.
I would expect some Black Budget US Air Force or Navy air asset to do it's best impression of the If not for the Grace of God episode of Stargate SG1 on those Russian troops.
 

History Learner

Well-known member
I mean, Jesus Christ. We've spent this long agonizing over ... ONE PARAGRAPH of your post. Is it really unimaginable that I would not care to expand my efforts to the rest for any reason other than dishonesty?

And yet you've seen fit to engage in this dialogue, after ostensibly not having time to engage the rest of the post. Let's not pretend you were attempting to do a cherry pick and this right here proves it, in that you're trying to use one point to claim the entire post was wrong.

The only dishonesty here is you.
 

History Learner

Well-known member
Or, you could substantiate your assumption that he was talking about UAVs as well as fighter jets.

Forgive me for assuming you had the ability to recognize a UAV is a warplane. Likewise, why are we suddenly limiting ourselves to fighter jets? You were the one talking about definitions before, would you like me to quote you?

What do you think I'm arguing? With respect to this specific line of questioning, I'm just responding to you. I can stop if you like, but perhaps you should stop asking questions you don't want me to answer.

Why would I want that when I just cut through all of them? It's why you're trying the fake tough act now.

"I don't have time now (and make no promises of later)"
If this misled you to think that I was "making no promises" to have time later, let me correct your misunderstanding: I was "making no promises" to respond point by point to your entire post later. If you are not willing to engage with someone objecting to a specific part of your post, you can quit now. If you think that, by choosing this specific part to argue about, I'm somehow dishonestly taking advantage of that specificity to mischaracterize your position ("cherry picking"), feel free to make an argument laying that out in detail. If you think I'm picking on the one thing you got wrong while ignoring everything you got right, congratulations! Just concede the supposedly insignificant point and walk away.

Why would I do that when I already proved you were wrong and you, yourself, confirmed you were cherry picking? You've now graduated to special pleading as well, so at this point I'm trying to see how many dishonest takes you're going to make.

I would disagree with your implication that Ukraine is unable to estimate its own losses any better than what that guy did in that interview. I would (did) argue that he was playing up the losses (which I think we'd agree are usually played down) in the context of begging the West for additional aid. In support of this, I showed that even within the context of his own testimony he was indisputably highballing the loss figures.

I'd agree Ukraine has a pretty good grasp of its losses, which is why any low counts or defending of Oryx's numbers doesn't have merit if they're lower than even the people we both agree on have reason to downplay them. The Western Aid angle doesn't make sense, however, because they wouldn't be asking for the equipment (and still be asking for it now) if they didn't actually need it because of high loss rates. It also leaves out the fact the West has intelligence agencies and space recon assets to which they can verify Ukrainian losses too, so Ukraine lying wouldn't work.
 

History Learner

Well-known member
...You really haven't been paying much attention to what the Russians have been doing with their conscripts up to this point, have you?

There's been a lot of 'Yes, it's nice that you have a nursing degree, here's your rifle, get to the front lines.'

Except it hasn't. Maybe stop getting your news from NEXTA and other literal SBU/CIA fronts which have every reason to lie?
 

History Learner

Well-known member
Do it Russia and j will be seeing you in Ukraine

More accurately, your shadow will be seeing the wall behind you after it's permanently left there from the flash of a Russian ICBM detonating.

Really? I wouldn't think even that would get US boots on the ground. I'd anticipate more that US (Maybe NATO) would use air force and possibly naval elements to just wreck everything Russian in Ukraine in a shortest possible time frame way, then stand almost completely back down to current support.

I wonder what the following Brazilian and Australian Cold War will look like, after they are left to pick up the pieces?
 

Cherico

Well-known member
Russia has around 6,000 nuclear weapons (we are rounding up)

America alone has over 19,000 cities (rounding down)

450px-NATO_30_Members.png


This is a map showing europe everything in blue is in nato.

Both France and England have their own nuclear weapons, so now Russia has to further devide their nuclear stockpile among various targets.

But it gets worse because the united states has bases in Japan and South korea so you have to take them out too, after that you have to think about China, China has competing claims against Russia and in the event of a nuclear war would claim as many resources as they could from Siberia.

So now you have to nuke china as well.

That spreads the targets among 3 different contentents at least.

Then you get into the next issue, america has been working on anti missle defense system for about 40 years now, and anti missle systems have been placed in nato countries so you have every possibility of some of those nukes being intercepted.

but it gets worse, the collapse of the 1990s hit russia hard, maintaining nuclear weapons is expensive and we have seen that corruption has gutted a whole lot of russias capability its an open question how many of those nukes many of which are from the cold war still work.

In short, in a nuclear wear nato and allies most likely get mauled but survive and russia becomes the next carthrage.
 

paulobrito

Well-known member
Nuke attacks don't work that way.
You hit the big cities, the ones that are hubs, centers of decision, industry, and finance. Destroy / heavily damage these and the country is in chaos. Add to the list the principal naval ports to damage international commerce.
It is not necessary to hit every single city. If for example, you shoot (with massive nuke attacks) the 100 most important cities in the US, the US ceases to exist as an organized nation.
The same applies to every country in the world.
 

Cherico

Well-known member
Nuke attacks don't work that way.
You hit the big cities, the ones that are hubs, centers of decision, industry, and finance. Destroy / heavily damage these and the country is in chaos. Add to the list the principal naval ports to damage international commerce.
It is not necessary to hit every single city. If for example, you shoot (with massive nuke attacks) the 100 most important cities in the US, the US ceases to exist as an organized nation.
The same applies to every country in the world.

the issue is how many nukes will get through the defenses I mean the US has been working on this shit for 40 years now, and how well have the russians maintained their nukes and you still have a whole lot of targets to spread them around. Quite frankly the question of how many of their nukes work is very much on the table.

Because this is soviet technology and we don't know how well they maintained them.
 

paulobrito

Well-known member
Nobody knows. Do you want to risk the world on that bet?
BTW, historically the nuclear forces are the best equipped/maintained in the Soviet Union. Just saying.
 

PsihoKekec

Swashbuckling Accountant
BTW, historically the nuclear forces are the best equipped/maintained in the Soviet Union. Just saying.
And in Russia as well. USA on the other hand had a lack of political will regarding it's nuclear weapons maintenance and only in the last decade started allocating funds towards refurbishing the facilities that do nuclear warhead maintenance.
 

Batrix2070

RON/PLC was a wonderful country.
@Batrix2070 this isn't the Soviet Union and they don't have the morale they would should they actually ne attacked.
Yes, the problem is that their doctrine in fundamentals and organization is still from the Soviet Union.
And in modern war numbers don't mean shit
It's not only the numbers, but the speed of their replacement that you should be looking for, so what if you have super soldiers if in the time it takes you to organize and train them your enemy manages to throw you further away and inflict further losses.
And one more thing, the Ukrainians contradict your words, they have the mass and adequate saturation of the area with troops, not the Russians. That's why the Russians get a thrashing every time because their front line doesn't exist hence the Ukrainians are able to carry out lunges between the Russian positions, while the Russians have to hit the wall every time to break through.

Only where there are a lot of Russians, such as near Kherson are the Ukrainians banging their heads against the wall unable to break through.
Any idiot can call for artillery, but it takes a well trained and equipped artillery spotter to do it well and to get it firing where it's supposed to.
Yes, but this is already a task for professionals, the job of conscripts is to inform them of this very thing, while the conscripts themselves will serve as only delayers.

Otherwise, it is the professional ones that the Russians must lose in the fighting, when the ones who were supposed to die en masse were the conscripts.
These "cadre units" were mostly disbanded to free up money for modernisations. A lot of stuff was disappeared along the way too of course.
Some of the units, not all, were disbanded, then there was another counter-reform and they were again restored but less than disbanded. The problem is that almost all of them are now in Ukraine, something that should not happen during mobilization
Then, during the war, a lot of the remaining spare equipment and personnel was again shifted to support the separatist forces, and then even some of the training cadre was decimated to reinforce units in the field.
They are doing the mobilization with only what's left after all that. And 20-30 years of dodgy storage practices for all the reserve equipment that didn't get pawned off. That's how you get pics of half rotten AK's that may well be still in Russia because warlords in Africa refused them on quality grounds.
The problem is that this is what the Soviet-Russian doctrine is all about. Better troops are supplemented with worse ones as better equipment is lost too quickly to replenish them. But by virtue of the fact that we are the ones attacking, we lose a lot of equipment but so does the enemy. It's just that we can do it faster than the enemy because we just have the crappy equipment but we have it and the enemy doesn't necessarily have its super equipment in stock.
This is how you waste lives. Not how you prepare your soldiers to win a war.
The problem is that you assume and approach it like a typical Westerner, that is, that the person is important. Unnecessary losses should be avoided even at the cost of not achieving operational goals, because the goal can always be achieved later but people cannot be recovered that way.
And wars should be fought quickly and finished as soon as possible.

Russia like the former Soviet Union does not consider your fulminations reasonable, the people killed can be replaced by someone else, as long as it is. But the achieved goal will give what it wants, because now Russia is playing for big stakes, what if they lose a few dozen thousand people, how the gained ground will allow you to recruit more in their place?

They are attuned to a long and grueling war in which losses mount and mount until one side can't replenish men and equipment at a sufficient pace.
And by virtue of the fact that it is Russia that is mentally and physically prepared for such a battle, it takes much greater losses than those of its opponents for its replenishment system to finally collapse.

What matters is whether you can hold out long enough to that point, and by virtue of the fact that the Russian pain threshold is much higher than such a Western one, it is fair to say that in the long run the West would lose such a war.

Therefore, it is the Russians who are favored by time, not Ukraine.

And the fact that Russian demographics are in a disaster? That's the reason why the Russians struck now, because later they won't be able to use this strategy again not without blowing themselves to pieces after a bloody victory or lack thereof.
No, the quality really, really, really does matter.
It is only relevant for an army that relies on maneuver and speed of strikes to knock down the enemy in quick succession.

In the case of an army aiming to bleed the opponent, quality becomes an obstacle, because your goal is to make the opponent run out of reserves by which his defense, due to lack of resources, must collapse.
And to achieve this, you have to replenish your losses faster than he does, and a lot faster, and creating good soldiers is not synonymous with fast replenishment unless you prepare a huge paramilitary program before the war that allows you to prepare some basics that later in real training you can skip because they are unnecessary

The Russian doctrine, which the Russians took selectively, does not seek a quick victory, but a total victory in which your opponent will lose almost all, if not all the reserves he has. This is a war of attrition.
Well, and most importantly, in Russian doctrine, thinking. It is not up to conscripts to execute targets, operationally, but to "elite" troops. It is the job of the conscripts to shield these elite troops with their destruction of by suffering losses for them.

What happens when this is not done? Well, it becomes Kiev, Sevrodonets, Mariupol and many other places. The Russians lose decent soldiers and have to replenish them with weaklings. And these are inferior in the task they were supposed to do, precisely the elite ones.
When it was the weaklings who were supposed to bleed so that the real army could do its job against a weakened opponent.

Since they have now begun to do as they should, that means one thing. Something happened in Russia that they decided to risk a politically long and grueling war because such a thing is now to be expected.
 
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