Alternate History Ideas and Discussion

You really need to actually understand what Hitler and the Nazis were about. As well as your irrational hatred of democracy which also throws your judgement totally off.
Germans,not nazis.They were about usual prussian thing - conqest more territory.
As long as soviets do not try openly backstab them/what Molotov did in 1940/ they would be happy with taking Africa and invading England.

And,as a result,soviets would backstab them and we would have soviet Europe.

P.S I was taking not about Democracy,but Democrats.And their strange custom of giving everything to soviets for free.
Allies,like Poland,should be sell for something,noit given free!
Who teached FDR and Truman politics ?

Soviet logistics in 1940 are just as bad as half a year earlier, when during the mostly unopposed invasion of Poland some tank units lost 3/4ths of their tanks over 200-250km due to breakdowns.
There is a single - single tracked - railroad across mountains and steppe/desert leading from Baku to Abadan - 1100km. Good luck!
With Churchill and other "Easteners*/panic mongers" in the Gov't rest assured that by spring '40 there would be a strong British corps - if not more - in Iraq. Plus possible French troops.

Yes, the Soviets would get to south Iran. Give them a few months. And then it is a repeat of the Manchurian War (or North Africa) on a smaller scale. Same principle applies - long distance, one RR.
Look at Soviet performance in Afganistan 40 years later.

* Ye Olde British "ankle biting" warwinning strategy - capture an island here (Wrangel Island or suchlike would be ideal), a peninsula there (Kamchatka!) ...



ATP hints at harbouring a certain distaste for democraTS (the US DNC), not democraCY.
1.You have a point.I forget,that there was one road.Soviets would throw slaves to build more,but it would take time.
And,where we taking about ankle biting,Magadan was connected only by sea with rest of soviets,had gold,and deatch camps,and only NKWD thugs to fight there.

Ideal for taking - England would get gold and propaganda ammo.

And, yes,i do not like Democrats - not becouse they gave us to soviets,but becouse they did it for free.
When in politics notching should be for free.
 
Soviet logistics in 1940 are just as bad as half a year earlier, when during the mostly unopposed invasion of Poland some tank units lost 3/4ths of their tanks over 200-250km due to breakdowns.
There is a single - single tracked - railroad across mountains and steppe/desert leading from Baku to Abadan - 1100km. Good luck!
With Churchill and other "Easteners*/panic mongers" in the Gov't rest assured that by spring '40 there would be a strong British corps - if not more - in Iraq. Plus possible French troops.

Yes, the Soviets would get to south Iran. Give them a few months. And then it is a repeat of the Manchurian War (or North Africa) on a smaller scale. Same principle applies - long distance, one RR.
Look at Soviet performance in Afganistan 40 years later.

* Ye Olde British "ankle biting" warwinning strategy - capture an island here (Wrangel Island or suchlike would be ideal), a peninsula there (Kamchatka!) ...



ATP hints at harbouring a certain distaste for democraTS (the US DNC), not democraCY.

On the last point I think its both. He hates the US Democratic Party because of their views but he's also made clear repeatedly of his hostility towards the idea of democracy in general, preferring theocratic states with strong aristocratic structures.
 
Germans,not nazis.They were about usual prussian thing - conqest more territory.
As long as soviets do not try openly backstab them/what Molotov did in 1940/ they would be happy with taking Africa and invading England.

And,as a result,soviets would backstab them and we would have soviet Europe.

P.S I was taking not about Democracy,but Democrats.And their strange custom of giving everything to soviets for free.
Allies,like Poland,should be sell for something,noit given free!
Who teached FDR and Truman politics ?


1.You have a point.I forget,that there was one road.Soviets would throw slaves to build more,but it would take time.
And,where we taking about ankle biting,Magadan was connected only by sea with rest of soviets,had gold,and deatch camps,and only NKWD thugs to fight there.

Ideal for taking - England would get gold and propaganda ammo.

And, yes,i do not like Democrats - not becouse they gave us to soviets,but becouse they did it for free.
When in politics notching should be for free.

Excepts its the Nazis in control of Germany. Plus even the Prussians desired territorial gains in the east. As demonstrated by the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk.
 
Excepts its the Nazis in control of Germany. Plus even the Prussians desired territorial gains in the east. As demonstrated by the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk.
Can you really blame the Prussians though? They needed the resources in WW1. Plus, who wouldn’t want a buffer between themselves and Russia? :p
 
Can you really blame the Prussians though? They needed the resources in WW1. Plus, who wouldn’t want a buffer between themselves and Russia? :p

In that they were the maker of the problem they faced in terms of looking only to military security by superior force which meant they threatened and hence alienated pretty much all their neighbour. That they drove Britain into defensive agreements with both France and Russia - its traditional rivals and opponents. Then once the war started they did just about everything they could to alienate the US as well. - I know there's an argument that elements in the US wanted to secure their loans to the allies and that was a factor. However repeated breaches of international agreements, attempts to launch sabotage attacks on US territory and things like the Zimmerman telegraph coupled with their increasingly open status as a military autocracy played far more of a role.

However that's beside the point here. The point is the Nazis were in charge and Hitler was fanatically committed to invading the USSR, for reasons of land/resources but even more so for reasons of dogma and belief.
 
On the last point I think its both. He hates the US Democratic Party because of their views but he's also made clear repeatedly of his hostility towards the idea of democracy in general, preferring theocratic states with strong aristocratic structures.
Nope,my friends.I do not hate Demorats,only detest them.I would hate them if they sell us to soviets,but since they gave us for free....
About Democracy - good ise in theory,in practice iy mean oligarchy.
So,i would prefer christian Kings,not aristocrats or priests.They suck as rulers.

Excepts its the Nazis in control of Germany. Plus even the Prussians desired territorial gains in the east. As demonstrated by the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk.
No,there are germans in control of germany.Who voted for nazi party,which win honest election.
And almost nobody there opposed german crimes in Poland,till they started loosing.

About prussians - especially they desired territorial gains in East.Crime of Partition was their idea,not russian.
 
Nope,my friends.I do not hate Demorats,only detest them.I would hate them if they sell us to soviets,but since they gave us for free....
About Democracy - good ise in theory,in practice iy mean oligarchy.
So,i would prefer christian Kings,not aristocrats or priests.They suck as rulers.


No,there are germans in control of germany.Who voted for nazi party,which win honest election.
And almost nobody there opposed german crimes in Poland,till they started loosing.

About prussians - especially they desired territorial gains in East.Crime of Partition was their idea,not russian.

In practice all systems become oligarchical if their allowed to ascend or descend to that status.

The Nazis didn't actually win a majority as they had only about 38-40% of the vote and this actually declined slightly in the last election before they managed to persuade other groups they could be trusted with power. Which they very quickly showed they couldn't be. Hitler was pretty much in unchecked power and he made all the decisions. Which included attacking the USSR as soon as he was able to. That a lot of the German military were deluded enough, after their rapid conquest of France, to think they could pull it off and their desire for the continued priviledges they got under the Nazi system made them more agreeable for the operation removed any chance of say a coup against him.
 
In practice all systems become oligarchical if their allowed to ascend or descend to that status.

The Nazis didn't actually win a majority as they had only about 38-40% of the vote and this actually declined slightly in the last election before they managed to persuade other groups they could be trusted with power. Which they very quickly showed they couldn't be. Hitler was pretty much in unchecked power and he made all the decisions. Which included attacking the USSR as soon as he was able to. That a lot of the German military were deluded enough, after their rapid conquest of France, to think they could pull it off and their desire for the continued priviledges they got under the Nazi system made them more agreeable for the operation removed any chance of say a coup against him.
And german elites still do not mind crimes committed in Poland.
 
‘Islamic Khmer Rouge Equivalent’.

Yes, ISIS certainly goes out of its way to glorify bloodshed and sadism. However, I’ve yet to hear about them forcibly de-industrializing or annihilating a fourth of their own people in less than five years, which is exactly what the Khmer Rouge did.
 
‘Islamic Khmer Rouge Equivalent’.

Yes, ISIS certainly goes out of its way to glorify bloodshed and sadism. However, I’ve yet to hear about them forcibly de-industrializing or annihilating a fourth of their own people in less than five years, which is exactly what the Khmer Rouge did.
De-industrialization is a bit of a stretch for them; mostly because even the most fanatical of them know that modern technology is just too damn useful to throw away. At least as long as there are other cultures around who might fight them.
 
De-industrialization is a bit of a stretch for them; mostly because even the most fanatical of them know that modern technology is just too damn useful to throw away. At least as long as there are other cultures around who might fight them.

Yeah, I suppose eschewing modern technology and expertise would make it both harder to recruit from abroad and nigh-impossible to combat the Iraqi and Syrian militaries. After all, you can't tweet or broadcast videos without cameras or telecommunications infrastructure, and being steamrolled by neighbors who've happily modernized goes without saying.

Used to attribute that to ISIS being a tad more "sane" than Pol Pot and his cronies, though upon reflection, I suppose the Khmer Rouge having different goals and priorities — namely, not seeking recruits from elsewhere and remaining Khmer nationalists who, besides their idiotic foray into Vietnam, by and large didn't give two shits about the outside world — makes a lot more sense. Still... gotta' wonder what the odds of Jihadi Pol Pot eventually rising to power are, given the kinds of bloodthirsty maniacs who regularly crop up in the Middle East nowadays. :rolleyes:
 
‘Iran Attacks Iraq First’.

More aid to Iraq from the West and from the wider Arab world. Iran would be confirmed as the major threat in the region. Saddam Hussein would be viewed more as "a bastard, but at least our bastard". Iran would receive sanctions post-war, but Iraq would be unable to make any gains-- nor would Iraq's backers allow this. Instead, they'd push for a cease-fire to ensure the sought-after 'balance in the region'.

Iran would be embittered and see itself as surrounded by a hostile world. Which, given OTL evidence, would turn them even nastier. There would be probably be an American intervention in the region later on (as in OTL), but against Iran.

This would create a major mess, since lopping off Arabic Khuzestan and/or Iranian Kudistan would create problems. If added to Iraq, it would destablisise the ethno-religious balance in Iraq. If kept independent, it would prompt rattachist secessionism amongst the Kurds and/or Shi'a Arabs in Iraq.

As such, I think after Iran got beaten, it would be forced to have "democratic elections". Keeping the Ayatollah regime would be impossible, as unlike Saddam Hussein, the idea of 'bloodying their noses will be enough' would be obviously nonsensical. They'd be fanatical enemies forever, so removing them would be the only option. Any new government would be hated by much of the Iranians, and the Arabs and Kurds would still harbour secessionist dreams.

Ultimately, you get as much of a mess as in OTL.

(Actual solution would be to immediately turn around and kill Saddam, too. Hand over Sunni Iraq to Syria, in exchange for Syrian Kurdistan. Create a Shi'a Arab Mesopotamia includin Khuzestan. Create a Kurdistan out of Syrian, Iraqi and Iranian Kurdistan, and allow the Turks to forcibly expel any bothersome Kurds across the border. That would involve some bloodshed, but it would create something resembling homogeneous nation-states, so could yield a semblance of stability. But that's too sane an approach for this wishy-washy era of ours. So you get the above instead. Endless internal warfare.)
 
More aid to Iraq from the West and from the wider Arab world. Iran would be confirmed as the major threat in the region. Saddam Hussein would be viewed more as "a bastard, but at least our bastard". Iran would receive sanctions post-war, but Iraq would be unable to make any gains-- nor would Iraq's backers allow this. Instead, they'd push for a cease-fire to ensure the sought-after 'balance in the region'.

Iran would be embittered and see itself as surrounded by a hostile world. Which, given OTL evidence, would turn them even nastier. There would be probably be an American intervention in the region later on (as in OTL), but against Iran.

This would create a major mess, since lopping off Arabic Khuzestan and/or Iranian Kudistan would create problems. If added to Iraq, it would destablisise the ethno-religious balance in Iraq. If kept independent, it would prompt rattachist secessionism amongst the Kurds and/or Shi'a Arabs in Iraq.

As such, I think after Iran got beaten, it would be forced to have "democratic elections". Keeping the Ayatollah regime would be impossible, as unlike Saddam Hussein, the idea of 'bloodying their noses will be enough' would be obviously nonsensical. They'd be fanatical enemies forever, so removing them would be the only option. Any new government would be hated by much of the Iranians, and the Arabs and Kurds would still harbour secessionist dreams.

Ultimately, you get as much of a mess as in OTL.

(Actual solution would be to immediately turn around and kill Saddam, too. Hand over Sunni Iraq to Syria, in exchange for Syrian Kurdistan. Create a Shi'a Arab Mesopotamia includin Khuzestan. Create a Kurdistan out of Syrian, Iraqi and Iranian Kurdistan, and allow the Turks to forcibly expel any bothersome Kurds across the border. That would involve some bloodshed, but it would create something resembling homogeneous nation-states, so could yield a semblance of stability. But that's too sane an approach for this wishy-washy era of ours. So you get the above instead. Endless internal warfare.)
The Pahlavi family stays in power and the Iranian revolution FAILS. What are the ramifications?
 
The Pahlavi family stays in power and the Iranian revolution FAILS. What are the ramifications?

There was a lot of discontent, so if it's "just" a case of the revolution going tits-up as it is attempted, we'll mostly just be waiting for the next go at it, unfortunately.

The Shah would have to be convinced to alter his course earlier. He would be best served to keep his ties to the West stronger (instead of trying to manipulate oil prices via OPEC. which lost him crucial Western support). This would in turn force him to limit his own ambitious domestic programmes. If his relations with the West were better, he'd be able to get more support; ideally in exchange for prioritising anti-corruption measures.

In doing the latter, some of his other programmes would have to wait (namely education). This would actually be good, since th Iranian economy wasn't ready to absorb educated graduates in vast numbers. That caused unemployment among the educated, and they became typical leftists. By doing the above, the amount of Marxist students would be dramatically reduced. The Iranian economy would evolve more gradually, and over time, the also gradually growing number of Iranians with a higher education would find employment upon graduation.

Finally, he'd have to resist his urge to push secular policies, which enraged many faithful Muslims. His calendar reform, for instance, was pure insanity. But specific provisisions that seemed designed to bully Muslims (such as giving exorbitant power to Zoroastrian clergy, who were a tiny majority) also created massive resentment. By choosing not to pursue such policies, the Shah could retain much more support.

The ramifications of this are that Iran continues a steady upward development economically. Over time, education also broadens, hand-in-hand with the developing economy. More trade with the West seems obvious, and with it, you get more cultural influence from the West. This would still prompt resistance, but it would be a vocal minority in the ATL scenario. Iran would ultimately be much better off. Far from perfect, no doubt, but not under the deeply unpleasant regime that seized power in OTL.

I think this would all be very hard to achieve, though. You'd almost need the Shah to have a personality transplant.
 
Quoting selectively again, because I have a few "quibbles" here and there:

More aid to Iraq from the West and from the wider Arab world. Iran would be confirmed as the major threat in the region. Saddam Hussein would be viewed more as "a bastard, but at least our bastard". Iran would receive sanctions post-war, but Iraq would be unable to make any gains-- nor would Iraq's backers allow this. Instead, they'd push for a cease-fire to ensure the sought-after 'balance in the region'.

Pretty sure he was viewed that way IOTL, too, despite having attacked first.

Nonetheless, I suppose an ATL in which roles are reversed makes helping Saddam a bit more "defensible", mostly because it would technically be a case of Iraq defending itself in addition to being a hard-nosed secular regime not ruled by crazed religious fundamentalists.

As such, I think after Iran got beaten, it would be forced to have "democratic elections". Keeping the Ayatollah regime would be impossible, as unlike Saddam Hussein, the idea of 'bloodying their noses will be enough' would be obviously nonsensical. They'd be fanatical enemies forever, so removing them would be the only option. Any new government would be hated by much of the Iranians, and the Arabs and Kurds would still harbour secessionist dreams.

Given their sheer fanaticism, I doubt they'll surrender or submit to Western reconstruction without resisting to the bitter end.

For one, you've got the Basij, which would recruit children as young as twelve to run over minefields in human-wave attacks and make themselves martyrs (kinda' like this poor kid here). That in mind, I've little doubt the Iranians would have IEDs lying everywhere and legions of suicide bombers just itching to take some American troops with them, in the event of attempts to forcibly remove them from power. Basically, contemplate what a full-scale invasion of the Japanese mainland might've looked like in World War II and swap the sweeping archipelago for a gigantic sandy desert — and that's pretty much what I'm picturing here.
 
Given their sheer fanaticism, I doubt they'll surrender or submit to Western reconstruction without resisting to the bitter end.

For one, you've got the Basij, which would recruit children as young as twelve to run over minefields in human-wave attacks and make themselves martyrs (kinda' like this poor kid here). That in mind, I've little doubt the Iranians would have IEDs lying everywhere and legions of suicide bombers just itching to take some American troops with them, in the event of attempts to forcibly remove them from power. Basically, contemplate what a full-scale invasion of the Japanese mainland might've looked like in World War II and swap the sweeping archipelago for a gigantic sandy desert — and that's pretty much what I'm picturing here.

Iran wasn't even able to crush Saddam easily. And Saddam's military was garbage. There's little doubt that the Americans would be able to take out the Iranian regime with only a bit more difficulty than taking out the Iraqi regime. But because leaving the bloodied Ayatollah regime isn't a viable option, you'll see something like the Iraq occupation, but in the '90s (or whatever).

It'll be like that, but worse-- and with the Shi'a equivalent to ISIS showing up almost at once. So imagine the Iraq occupation, the Afghanistan occupation, and the Syrian civil war, all rolled into one conflict taking place in occupied Iran. A bloody mess. It would be a costly failure as far as Iran itself would be concerned. But conversely, with the Arab world more aligned with America against Iran, some major trouble could be averted on that side of the equation. (For instance, Arab rapprochement with Israel might get a boost, and there would be less of a support structure for anti-American Islamists in the Arab world. So probably no Al-Qaeda, for instance. With the USA seeking to surround Iran, they may well keep relations with the Taliban basically functional, too.)

So, on the whole, is this better or worse than OTL? I'd suggest that it's roughly on par. More pain in some places, a bit less pain in a few other places.
 

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