ShadowArxxy - Canon Omake - Strategic Analysis
Omake: Strategic Analysis
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Secure Containment Information Facility - Royal Palace
"Our analysis of the three incoming DropShips' drive signatures gives us very high confidence that one of them is the same Union-CV class aerospace carrier dropship that was previously deployed against us ten years ago during the last major attack. We only have tentative IDs on the other two; one is around ten thousand tons and the other is around *fifty* thousand tons with five distinct sub-plumes. Our best guesses on those are a Mule class cargo hauler and a Aqueduct class fuel hauler. They remain on course for an landing on Griffin IV, and are clearly planning to establish a forward base there. It's the only reason to bring something as specialized and valuable as that huge fuel carrier."
The Aerospace Force officer delivering the classified briefing was a relatively young and clearly nervous Captain. Fortunately, the Queen was very good at calm, reassuring Mom Smiles. "They'd be able to attack us directly from that base?"
"It's possible, but only marginally. At a sustained 1.5G burn, Griffin IV is roughly a 24 hour flight for a maximum-velocity flyby or 32 hours for a zero-zero intercept. ASFs can fly that far but they'd be at severely degraded combat readiness. We think what they intend is to use that Union-CV to ferry several loads of fighters to the base, then hot-deck off it to double or even triple their effective fighter complement during their next major attack."
"They're still badly underestimating us then. Especially with the new Eagles, our ASF wings are more than a match for thirty-six of theirs."
"Remember that they can *produce* Leopard-CVs. With the three-collar JumpShip they clearly have, they can drop off a pair of loaded Leopard-CVs on each future run to this forward base, along with twelve ASFs from the Union-CV; that's twenty-four ASFs and two Leopard-CVs per run. Or in the worst case, they could have the ability to produce Union-CVs, which would allow them to bring in 36 fighters every run. We're going to have to monitor jump and drive plumes very carefully; if we can figure out their delivery schedule, we should be able to get a good idea of when they're going to attack and in what strength."
(For pure ASF deliveries, the most likely scenario would be two more supply runs for a force of one Union-CV and four Leopard-CVs hot decking sixty ASFs between them, while the maximum plausible would be three more supply runs for one Union and six Leopards hot decking eighty-four ASFs. Obviously, things mix up quite a bit if future drive plumes are anything other than Union-CV/Leopard-CV mix, but we should be able to see that coming.)
"So the bottom line is that they've realized our defenses are too potent for a direct JumpShip/DropShip assault, and are setting up a forward base to work around that bottleneck." The Queen frowned. "This is troubling, although I suppose it's also a backhanded compliment to our ASF forces."
"But it doesn't make any sense, Mom!" interjects James, twitching a little. Since Jeremy was away at sea, the next-in-line twins were sitting in on the briefing. "Kurita is one of the Great Houses of the Star League; they could just *use bigger JumpShips* instead of dancing around with forward bases that they know we can see!"
"That's actually one of the things that's been keeping our analysts up at night." agrees the Captain smoothly, handling the interruption with relative aplomb. "According to our friend from the Magistracy, the answer is that space infrastructure throughout the Inner Sphere really was hit *that hard* during the First and Second Succession Wars. WarShips are completely extinct, and JumpShip production is incredibly limited.
So yes, bringing in a Monolith with six Union-CVs and three Overlords on her collars would be a very direct solution to the problem we present them. But large JumpShips like that are few and far between even for a Great House. They may well have used one or two of those or even a Potemkin to bring their force from the Combine all the way out here, but they literally could not afford to leave such critically rare assets on an extended deployment. The heavy lift JumpShips must have been sent back to the Combine once they found a suitable planet to deploy on for their initial landing, which is also why they've been committed to the occupation of Nowa Warszawa rather than simply moving to a more convenient, uninhabited planet."
The officer waited for the Queen's nod before moving back to the slide deck. "We've seen them deploy dropship counts consistent with a one-collar and a three-collar JumpShip; while it would be dangerously over-optimistic to conclude that this is all they have retained, they are clearly reluctant to commit multiple JumpShips or larger JumpShips *even* when they have strong reason to believe there is no possible way we could threaten them. We're not sure *why* they are so reluctant, but this forward base strategy is a pretty solid commitment to small Jumps. They will likely continue to use the three-collar ship to build up forces at the forward base; seeing troop transport Dropships or a larger JumpShip would likely indicate that the next major assault is underway."
"I see. What are our options?"
"Unfortunately, we don't have any viable immediate responses. Our ASFs would be just as exhausted as theirs without carrier support, and the Enterprise is simply too fragile to risk in hot space. We would have to build our own carrier and combat transports in order to field any viable counterattack, and the Aerospace Force's recommendation is that we hold back until we can assemble a decisive force."
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Secure Containment Information Facility - Royal Palace
"Our analysis of the three incoming DropShips' drive signatures gives us very high confidence that one of them is the same Union-CV class aerospace carrier dropship that was previously deployed against us ten years ago during the last major attack. We only have tentative IDs on the other two; one is around ten thousand tons and the other is around *fifty* thousand tons with five distinct sub-plumes. Our best guesses on those are a Mule class cargo hauler and a Aqueduct class fuel hauler. They remain on course for an landing on Griffin IV, and are clearly planning to establish a forward base there. It's the only reason to bring something as specialized and valuable as that huge fuel carrier."
The Aerospace Force officer delivering the classified briefing was a relatively young and clearly nervous Captain. Fortunately, the Queen was very good at calm, reassuring Mom Smiles. "They'd be able to attack us directly from that base?"
"It's possible, but only marginally. At a sustained 1.5G burn, Griffin IV is roughly a 24 hour flight for a maximum-velocity flyby or 32 hours for a zero-zero intercept. ASFs can fly that far but they'd be at severely degraded combat readiness. We think what they intend is to use that Union-CV to ferry several loads of fighters to the base, then hot-deck off it to double or even triple their effective fighter complement during their next major attack."
"They're still badly underestimating us then. Especially with the new Eagles, our ASF wings are more than a match for thirty-six of theirs."
"Remember that they can *produce* Leopard-CVs. With the three-collar JumpShip they clearly have, they can drop off a pair of loaded Leopard-CVs on each future run to this forward base, along with twelve ASFs from the Union-CV; that's twenty-four ASFs and two Leopard-CVs per run. Or in the worst case, they could have the ability to produce Union-CVs, which would allow them to bring in 36 fighters every run. We're going to have to monitor jump and drive plumes very carefully; if we can figure out their delivery schedule, we should be able to get a good idea of when they're going to attack and in what strength."
(For pure ASF deliveries, the most likely scenario would be two more supply runs for a force of one Union-CV and four Leopard-CVs hot decking sixty ASFs between them, while the maximum plausible would be three more supply runs for one Union and six Leopards hot decking eighty-four ASFs. Obviously, things mix up quite a bit if future drive plumes are anything other than Union-CV/Leopard-CV mix, but we should be able to see that coming.)
"So the bottom line is that they've realized our defenses are too potent for a direct JumpShip/DropShip assault, and are setting up a forward base to work around that bottleneck." The Queen frowned. "This is troubling, although I suppose it's also a backhanded compliment to our ASF forces."
"But it doesn't make any sense, Mom!" interjects James, twitching a little. Since Jeremy was away at sea, the next-in-line twins were sitting in on the briefing. "Kurita is one of the Great Houses of the Star League; they could just *use bigger JumpShips* instead of dancing around with forward bases that they know we can see!"
"That's actually one of the things that's been keeping our analysts up at night." agrees the Captain smoothly, handling the interruption with relative aplomb. "According to our friend from the Magistracy, the answer is that space infrastructure throughout the Inner Sphere really was hit *that hard* during the First and Second Succession Wars. WarShips are completely extinct, and JumpShip production is incredibly limited.
So yes, bringing in a Monolith with six Union-CVs and three Overlords on her collars would be a very direct solution to the problem we present them. But large JumpShips like that are few and far between even for a Great House. They may well have used one or two of those or even a Potemkin to bring their force from the Combine all the way out here, but they literally could not afford to leave such critically rare assets on an extended deployment. The heavy lift JumpShips must have been sent back to the Combine once they found a suitable planet to deploy on for their initial landing, which is also why they've been committed to the occupation of Nowa Warszawa rather than simply moving to a more convenient, uninhabited planet."
The officer waited for the Queen's nod before moving back to the slide deck. "We've seen them deploy dropship counts consistent with a one-collar and a three-collar JumpShip; while it would be dangerously over-optimistic to conclude that this is all they have retained, they are clearly reluctant to commit multiple JumpShips or larger JumpShips *even* when they have strong reason to believe there is no possible way we could threaten them. We're not sure *why* they are so reluctant, but this forward base strategy is a pretty solid commitment to small Jumps. They will likely continue to use the three-collar ship to build up forces at the forward base; seeing troop transport Dropships or a larger JumpShip would likely indicate that the next major assault is underway."
"I see. What are our options?"
"Unfortunately, we don't have any viable immediate responses. Our ASFs would be just as exhausted as theirs without carrier support, and the Enterprise is simply too fragile to risk in hot space. We would have to build our own carrier and combat transports in order to field any viable counterattack, and the Aerospace Force's recommendation is that we hold back until we can assemble a decisive force."