Here's some interesting punditry on how the case might shake out:
The Meaning Behind the Supreme Court Granting Cert in NYSRPA v. Corlett - The Truth About Guns
◀Previous Post Next Post▶ By LKB This morning, the Supreme Court announced that it has granted cert in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Corlett, the case challenging New York City’s “may issue” (read: no issue unless you are politically connected) system for granting concealed...
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Justices Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch appear to be locks for a strong Second Amendment decision. Based on her writings as a circuit judge, ACB appears to be as well. Kavanaugh has talked a good 2A game in the past, but there have been increasing concerns as to whether his supposed conservative views would outweigh his apparent desire to remain in good standing with the Beltway chattering classes.
In granting cert today, it would appear that the pro-2A wing of the Court is sufficiently satisfied that they can now get to five…which means Kavanaugh is likely on board. I’ll go out on a limb and say that Roberts will also wind up in the majority, but only for a purely tactical reason rather than any return to originalist sanity.
After the Court takes its preliminary vote on a case after oral arguments, if the Chief Justice is in the majority, then he gets to assign who writes the draft of the majority opinion (which almost always winds up being the Court’s opinion). If the the Chief Justice is not in the majority, that role falls to the senior-most associate justice in the majority.
Ergo, if Roberts goes squish on the NYSR&PA case, the assignment role would fall to Justice Clarence “Second Class Right” Thomas who would almost certainly take that job for himself and write a very expansive pro-Second Amendment opinion.
Even if the Chief Justice Robert doesn’t like (or may ultimately vote against) the majority in the case, he can tactically vote with the majority up front, thus being able to assign the opinion to someone who will produce an opinion that’s closer to his own. My guess is that he’d assign the opinion to Kavanaugh. If Roberts took it himself and tried to write a weak sauce opinion, there would be five votes that could reject it and join an opinion written by Thomas or Alito which would then become the Court’s opinion.