Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[Batrix2070]

Chiron hasn't been seen since May 17th.

I think it was after ATP started joking that he was an FSB agent.

 

[TheRejectionist]

I think it was after ATP started joking that he was an FSB agent.

ATP probably thinks I am one as well. Fuck, I wouldn't goddamn blame him/her (or you) for it.

 

[AnimalNoodles]

Ah ha. Ah hahaha... HAHAHAHAHA! In other words, no.

My point still stands.The Russian goal is to grind up the Ukie cadre. Ukraine is starting to draft women ffs. How many Ukies died in the failed Kherson offensive? The lines of battle will continue to ebb and flow.

 

[Cherico]

When you say "Fight to the last Ukrainian" you make it sound like they're being cynically used, and that belittles them. They've chosen to fight for their freedom and self determination, and I applaud them for that, and also the countries that have supported them in that fight. For sure they almost unanimously have reasons for that support beyond it being the right thing to do, but that doesn't change that it is a fundamentally good and just thing, nor that it wouldn't be possible if they weren't interested in enthusiastically defending themselves to start with.

But, yeah as you and @paulobrito said, a Russia/NATO war is way more likely to go nuclear, and that would be horrendous. Even if the logistics, maintenance and quality issues that have effected the rest of the Russian war machine apply to their nuclear forces (And I think it's likely that they are far less impacted.) they have the capacity to make a NATO "victory" a shitty situation for the rest of the world. But... So what? The point is they can't get away with unreasonable diplomatic dick swinging, because the big stick of their military isn't hanging so scarily in the background. Sure they could go full NK and just threaten to nuke everyone they don't like every second Tuesday, but that just makes them an even more isolated pariah state. It's pretty clear they can't live up to their ambitions even with access to world markets. If they're cut off long term they'll just become increasingly irrelevant.

From a Nato prespective yes they are being cynically used but their also fighting for their freeedom and self determination. Both of these things can be true at the same time. France didn't help the american revolution out of the kindness of their heart they helped them to fuck over their rivals.

Real politic and more idealistic desires can and do sometimes converge.

 

[Batrix2070]

ATP probably thinks I am one as well. Fuck, I wouldn't goddamn blame him/her (or you) for it.

I don't think you, I think ATP doesn't either. He rather thinks you are a naive Italian thinking that Russia winning is helpful to Italy.
And I don't care, you can get angry but at the end of the day you won't change anything in the fact that I want Poland to destroy Russia with the hands of others and take its role as the main card player in Eastern Europe.
With the help of the US which needs a Trojan horse to play itself the EU, especially since the UK has just gone.

 

[Marduk]

From a Nato prespective yes they are being cynically used but their also fighting for their freeedom and self determination. Both of these things can be true at the same time. France didn't help the american revolution out of the kindness of their heart they helped them to fuck over their rivals.

Real politic and more idealistic desires can and do sometimes converge.

It's similar to South Korea. One way of looking at it is that USA was "using" them to fight a proxy war against commies, but on the other hand their alternative to being "used" was being ruled by the Dear Leader, so i guess they didn't mind that at all.

 

[Tiamat]

It's similar to South Korea. One way of looking at it is that USA was "using" them to fight a proxy war against commies, but on the other hand their alternative to being "used" was being ruled by the Dear Leader, so i guess they didn't mind that at all.

Then again, if one looks at South Korea and North Korea these days, the disparity in wealth and living conditions between the two is obvious.

 

[paulobrito]

Then again, if one looks at South Korea and North Korea these days, the disparity in wealth and living conditions between the two is obvious.

Heretic! Are you saying that Best Korea is not the best ever nation in the world? /s

 

[ATP]

I think it was after ATP started joking that he was an FSB agent.

Indeed- and it was joke.I really hope that he was not some low-level agent and KGB silenced him.Like that polish traitor on Belaruss.Becouse i would feel quilty if he died thanks to my joke.

ATP probably thinks I am one as well. Fuck, I wouldn't goddamn blame him/her (or you) for it.

Him,and i do not think that you are agent - only silly western european who belive that throwing Poand under Moscow bus save him.
Becouse,if Poland fall,you would be next.
Putin is not tsar,who wanted only slavish people and Constantinopole,but kgb colonel,who want entire Europe.

 

[ATP]

Looks like I typed this up but forgot to post it: "Sure, if NATO actually attacked Russia then Russia would be saved by the threat of its nukes, or else WWIII gets the bad ending if NATO doesn't listen. But the point is the armed forces have nothing but the nukes to save them. Russia's reputation that, as the inheritor to the Soviet army, their conventional forces are to be respected has been exposed as fantasy."

Only obsolete? Wasn't it confirmed that Ukraine is now using the same artillery as the USA with (sometimes) the most advanced available ammunition?

And as for tanks, the USA is sending them old tanks indirectly, unless you think all the countries that are getting tanks from the USA and sending their Soviet stuff to Ukraine would have done the latter even without getting replacements.


Paulobrito, I see you liked this post. So let's look outside the frame of the picture you're painting. The West wants to isolate Russia and neuter its influence. But Russia has a lot of resources. Specifically it has resources that China and India refuse to live without. So let's say China and India keep on trading with Russia. Let's even say that the West continues to use resources ultimately sourced from Russia, but obtained through these two proxies.

But what is the result of this? The West can still push Russia back to its own borders. (And stop there. That is what the nukes are for, not "defending ethnic Russians" in other countries.) All the other countries that Russia has historically pushed around can be immune to its influence. China and India are too big for Russia to push around.

What, really, is the difference between Russia and NK in this scenario? That they don't depend on food imports? Wow.

Russia, in this scenario, doesn't have to be "dismembered in small nations" to be "easily controlled". They'll have backed themselves into a corner that lets two nations that each have more than ten times their population babysit them. The West doesn't even have to bother doing the controlling!

NATO do not gave tanks to Poland,we must buy Abrams from USA.
And,if USA wanted Ukraine victory,they would send 500 their older Abrams there and 200 F.16.
In that case,Ukraine would arleady win.

And you are right about China and Moscov - Pekin would made putin vassal now.

The point is that before this war, Russia (like all the NATO/US wars in the last 30 years) has only fought against much weaker opponents.

This war is like not a single one in recent history - for all purposes, is a real war between two peer-level forces (the NATO support/training/financing/etc elevates Ukraine a lot) done on a very wide front.

That the Russian forces are found lacking is no surprise - maybe the level of lacking. But, if you put anyone in this kind of fight, you also see weakness/problems on any side.

If this is only Ukraine alone against Russia, the fight terminated long ago with a victory for Russia, don't have any illusions.

Moscov could crush Ukraine in first months before real help come,but they failed to do so.Which made their army joke.

And,USA do not supporting Ukraine sriously here - if they did,we would have at least 500 Abrams and 200 F.16 there.
They do not want defeat Moscov,but made them abadonn alliance with Pekin.

And,when Moscow leave China,USA let them happily massacre Ukraine,balts and Poland.
It is very good,that Putin is fighting for us.

Of course,it all could be feint - and real super kgb army is waiting for RIGHT HOUR to struck.
Or,putin just want his army dead.They could made putch,after all.

 

[Zachowon]

My point still stands.The Russian goal is to grind up the Ukie cadre. Ukraine is starting to draft women ffs. How many Ukies died in the failed Kherson offensive? The lines of battle will continue to ebb and flow.

I mean, I wouldn't say the Kherson is failed.
It is still moving slowly.
And I mean, numbers still seem to point towards Russia having more killed then thr Ukrainians

 

[TheRejectionist]

I don't think you, I think ATP doesn't either. He rather thinks you are a naive Italian thinking that Russia winning is helpful to Italy.
And I don't care, you can get angry but at the end of the day you won't change anything in the fact that I want Poland to destroy Russia with the hands of others and take its role as the main card player in Eastern Europe.
With the help of the US which needs a Trojan horse to play itself the EU, especially since the UK has just gone.

Indeed- and it was joke.I really hope that he was not some low-level agent and KGB silenced him.Like that polish traitor on Belaruss.Becouse i would feel quilty if he died thanks to my joke.



Him,and i do not think that you are agent - only silly western european who belive that throwing Poand under Moscow bus save him.
Becouse,if Poland fall,you would be next.
Putin is not tsar,who wanted only slavish people and Constantinopole,but kgb colonel,who want entire Europe.

My main reason for wishing a Russian victory I mentioned above is : I want the bastards that took two years of my life to loose and poisoned with their shot my mother, family and friends to loose. No I wouldn't throw under the bus Poland, because I do have Polish friends as well a don't blame you for you history for wanting Russia gone, because no I am not a silly European, I can open a history book and see over 130 years of history why you would wish such outcome.
I can't kick the bastards out, hell I am probably on an Italian government watchlist just by writing here! But if they loose in Ukraine, at least it will be a sardonic victory and hopefully a domino to fall against them.
The second is more practical. I have my mother with chemotherapy and here they haven't promised to keep the hospitals with a decent temperature, and I don't know if I my part of the city will be sacrificed, not to mention I have a kid's friend I care as if it was my own.
Her part of the city is likely to be the one going into "controlled" black to "flatten the curve of energy need" as that sellout prostitute of Von Der Leyen said and I am scared for him and for my mom.
So those why I want Ukraine to loose. It ain't much, but they are valid.

 

[ATP]

My main reason for wishing a Russian victory I mentioned above is : I want the bastards that took two years of my life to loose and poisoned with their shot my mother, family and friends to loose. No I wouldn't throw under the bus Poland, because I do have Polish friends as well a don't blame you for you history for wanting Russia gone, because no I am not a silly European, I can open a history book and see over 130 years of history why you would wish such outcome.
I can't kick the bastards out, hell I am probably on an Italian government watchlist just by writing here! But if they loose in Ukraine, at least it will be a sardonic victory and hopefully a domino to fall against them.
The second is more practical. I have my mother with chemotherapy and here they haven't promised to keep the hospitals with a decent temperature, and I don't know if I my part of the city will be sacrificed, not to mention I have a kid's friend I care as if it was my own.
Her part of the city is likely to be the one going into "controlled" black to "flatten the curve of energy need" as that sellout prostitute of Von Der Leyen said and I am scared for him and for my mom.
So those why I want Ukraine to loose. It ain't much, but they are valid.

iundarstandt your concerns - but you do not Moscov gas,but kicking out green madness.
If EU remain fixed on it,putin gas would not help you.And if Europe come back to coal,we do not need Moscov then.

 

[Marduk]

NATO do not gave tanks to Poland,we must buy Abrams from USA.

Germans did give us some tanks back when they had tanks to spare, those 1 euro Leopard 2's weren't so cheap in the long run.
Now they don't even have any left to give. Spain had some... third hand ones but in such bad state that they had to go for factory repairs, they are scheduled to go to Slovakia, while Slovakia gave Ukraine its modernized T-72's that Ukraine can use right away.

And,USA do not supporting Ukraine sriously here - if they did,we would have at least 500 Abrams and 200 F.16 there.
They do not want defeat Moscov,but made them abadonn alliance with Pekin.

Logistics. Can Ukraine send a few divisions of engineers and technicians to learn to use these for months, and then deal with their massive logistical needs? F-16 for example is infamous for getting engine damage if there is debris on runways.
There is talk of Ukrainians training for F-16's now that it's pretty assured that they will last for said months, so that may get somewhere.
As for tanks, moving the 70 ton M1's around Ukraine's already crappy and now often war damaged infrastructure is going to be a bitch. People even whine that it's a problem in Poland. What Ukraine could use more is a big Bradley shipment to help them form mechanized infantry not based on shitty BMP-1's. But there the problem is that USA has hardly any spare Bradleys, they use almost all they have.

 

[Tiamat]

Another Russian media reaction to the debacle in Kharkiv. Interesting as their now seems to be some vocal disagreement.

 

[WolfBear]

My main reason for wishing a Russian victory I mentioned above is : I want the bastards that took two years of my life to loose and poisoned with their shot my mother, family and friends to loose. No I wouldn't throw under the bus Poland, because I do have Polish friends as well a don't blame you for you history for wanting Russia gone, because no I am not a silly European, I can open a history book and see over 130 years of history why you would wish such outcome.
I can't kick the bastards out, hell I am probably on an Italian government watchlist just by writing here! But if they loose in Ukraine, at least it will be a sardonic victory and hopefully a domino to fall against them.
The second is more practical. I have my mother with chemotherapy and here they haven't promised to keep the hospitals with a decent temperature, and I don't know if I my part of the city will be sacrificed, not to mention I have a kid's friend I care as if it was my own.
Her part of the city is likely to be the one going into "controlled" black to "flatten the curve of energy need" as that sellout prostitute of Von Der Leyen said and I am scared for him and for my mom.
So those why I want Ukraine to loose. It ain't much, but they are valid.

Blame Russia for starting the war and for cutting off gas supplies to Europe, not Ukraine. Ukraine isn't the one who started this war.

 

[Carrot of Truth]

I think if Russia doesn't mobilize its population and declare war for real then this whole exercise is pointless, Although now that I say this watch them blitz half way across the map in a week just so someone can comment talking shit.

 

[WolfBear]

Although now that I say this watch them blitz half way across the map in a week just so someone can comment talking shit.

I'd prefer to see a Ukrainian blitz, thank you very much.

 

[Bacle]

My main reason for wishing a Russian victory I mentioned above is : I want the bastards that took two years of my life to loose and poisoned with their shot my mother, family and friends to loose. No I wouldn't throw under the bus Poland, because I do have Polish friends as well a don't blame you for you history for wanting Russia gone, because no I am not a silly European, I can open a history book and see over 130 years of history why you would wish such outcome.
I can't kick the bastards out, hell I am probably on an Italian government watchlist just by writing here! But if they loose in Ukraine, at least it will be a sardonic victory and hopefully a domino to fall against them.
The second is more practical. I have my mother with chemotherapy and here they haven't promised to keep the hospitals with a decent temperature, and I don't know if I my part of the city will be sacrificed, not to mention I have a kid's friend I care as if it was my own.
Her part of the city is likely to be the one going into "controlled" black to "flatten the curve of energy need" as that sellout prostitute of Von Der Leyen said and I am scared for him and for my mom.
So those why I want Ukraine to loose. It ain't much, but they are valid.

Your complaints are understandable, however your ire is misdirected.

Russia is the one who began this war, not Ukraine, and as much as you have every right to hate the people who forced Wu Flu lockdowns and such on the West, there is no way they 'lose' this war and Russia 'wins'.

Also, blame the radical environmental groups and their stooges for the lack of options besides Russian energy in a lot of Europe, not Ukraine for wanting to not be under Moscow's thumb.

Being angry about the situation the war, and Wu Flu before it, has caused is completely legit. However, Russia is the one responsible for the problems in Ukraine, and you are far from the only one who wants Fauci and the other docs who lied about Wuhan to face consequences for it.

With how the war has developed, Russia no longer has ways to 'win' in Ukraine that do not involve nuclear weapons, and if nukes come out, well...your current concerns are likely to be rather small compared to what happens if you have to start worrying about literal fallout blowing in from Eastern Europe.

 

[Carrot of Truth]

I'd prefer to see a Ukrainian blitz, thank you very much.

I honestly have no horse in this race and don't really care who wins or loses. Allows me to look at the conflict objectively imo.