Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

The worst case scenario for Russia is now they will keep what they have taken so far.

Best case is they get all of what they want.

Ukraine is neutralized at the expense of conscripts and old equipment.

I think the first case is the more probable, but a middle way could be also.
At this point even Petraeus one of the main broadcast channels was saying when Mariupol is wrapped up, which should be soon, those forces would shift north and close the Donbass pocket and effectively defeat a large chunk of the Ukrainian army and free up a large force to effectively clear the east bank of the Dnieper. It is just a question of how long things take and how many people die. The outcome is not really in doubt even if the supposed Kiev counterattack drives the Russians back from the capital.
 
At this point even Petraeus one of the main broadcast channels was saying when Mariupol is wrapped up, which should be soon, those forces would shift north and close the Donbass pocket and effectively defeat a large chunk of the Ukrainian army and free up a large force to effectively clear the east bank of the Dnieper. It is just a question of how long things take and how many people die. The outcome is not really in doubt even if the supposed Kiev counterattack drives the Russians back from the capital.

Is Zelensky still pushing for a victory ? Because that's what he peddled to the Italian Parliament today basically.
 
Far as I can tell, he and his Nazi friends presume they can still keep Ukraine in its entirety.

Which short of the WW3 isn't going to happen.

Wanna put some money on that, copenick?

It's just to make sure these airframes can't be returned to service even if the Ukrainians wanted to do so.

It takes years to restore a boneyard airframe to service, numbnuts.
 
Far as I can tell, he and his Nazi friends presume they can still keep Ukraine in its entirety.

Which short of the WW3 isn't going to happen.
Depends what you mean by "entirety". I seriously doubt Ukraine will be retaking Crimea in the current war and I don't think Ukraine expects to. (And I don't think Russia would give it up for any reason but naked force.) I think Ukraine's most optimistic scenario could involve retaking the Donbass, but I think that's much less likely than a "status quo ante bellum" settlement. However, that settlement would last about as long as South Vietnam after the puppeteer pulled out.
 
Depends what you mean by "entirety". I seriously doubt Ukraine will be retaking Crimea in the current war and I don't think Ukraine expects to. (And I don't think Russia would give it up for any reason but naked force.) I think Ukraine's most optimistic scenario could involve retaking the Donbass, but I think that's much less likely than a "status quo ante bellum" settlement. However, that settlement would last about as long as South Vietnam after the puppeteer pulled out.
Ukrainian strategy is entirely dependent on drawing the US/NATO into the war. I think certain elements in the US government would love that, but it seems the Pentagon is starting to push back on that because they realize they are completely unable to pull that off and China would love to see that happen and would probably start sending Russia lots of military gear. Given how there is supposedly a "China Pivot" after Afghanistan fighting Russia is precisely what the military does not want to do, just have Ukraine fight to the bitter end and bleed out Russia so that the US is freed up from Europe to focus on China.
 
I suppose this is just the Russians luring the Ukrainians into a trap.

Maybe.But remember - they could win in week,if they wonted with what they have.
Either they are incompetent and unable to achieve victory,or Putin what destroy his army so they could not made putch and save Mother Russia from KGB mafias.
 
It is wishful thinking based on Ukrainian propaganda. But the situation around Kiev is irrelevant; what is going to decide the war is the Donbass front which is falling apart slowly for the Ukrainians.

I believe you mean "glacially." But that's what you get with an army that dare not venture off-road and thus has to move very predictably and fight for every single crossroads, and is advancing slowly enough that the locals have all the time in the world to dig ditches.

Oh, and with an army that can't keep a pontoon bridge alive for the life of them in a land where there are frequent water barriers.

Mariupol is set to fall. That frees up a Russian army which can then close the pocket at Izyum, which then cuts off most of the Donbass Ukrainian forces. Once they're trapped it is the beginning of the end.

I've been hearing this "Mariupol will fall any day now!" thing for - lemme check - 23 days and counting, now. How did that line go again? "Take the whole city in a week with two airborne brigades?" el em ay ohhhhhh
 
Wanna put some money on that, copenick?



It takes years to restore a boneyard airframe to service, numbnuts.

I am more let's see where it goes and while I am Italian it's not like I have also the stereotypical habit of gambling my money away in lotteries or bets. Hopefully the Russians win considering they are against the global eurofascists that wanted me to either be a social reject or a labrat. They showed also that Euro politicians have no foresight or are intentionally shooting their countries in the foot not to mention they are not united as they claim to be, for which I am glad.
 
I am more let's see where it goes and while I am Italian it's not like I have also the stereotypical habit of gambling my money away in lotteries or bets. Hopefully the Russians win considering they are against the global eurofascists that wanted me to either be a social reject or a labrat. They showed also that Euro politicians have no foresight or are intentionally shooting their countries in the foot not to mention they are not united as they claim to be, for which I am glad.

Let's just say that as a Greek-American I have some spicy takes on the EU myself. 😏
 
I believe you mean "glacially." But that's what you get with an army that dare not venture off-road and thus has to move very predictably and fight for every single crossroads, and is advancing slowly enough that the locals have all the time in the world to dig ditches.
They're attacking Ukraine in February-March which is when off roading is tough. Or have you not hear of the spring thaw?
Glacially? 20% of Ukraine has fallen and the capital is threatened. There is such things as operational pauses to rest and regroup after a major advance. Read up on WW2 to learn some things and realize this is a higher intensity war that than due to technology.

Oh, and with an army that can't keep a pontoon bridge alive for the life of them in a land where there are frequent water barriers.
You do realize peer level combat is messy right? This isn't an American style war of raping 3rd world countries for fun and profit.

I've been hearing this "Mariupol will fall any day now!" thing for - lemme check - 23 days and counting, now. How did that line go again? "Take the whole city in a week with two airborne brigades?" el em ay ohhhhhh
Remind me how many battles and how long it took for Fallujah to fall against much weaker opposition? Turns out trying to take a city while not killing masses of civilians or suffer crippling losses takes longer than ADHD American attention spans can focus.
 
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I don't think it can be said that Javelins are non-factors. If that were the case, the US and NATO wouldn't be trying to pour as many as possible into Ukraine to bleed out the Russians. They are clearly a tool that allows the Ukrainians to punch above their weight. I wonder (and I say this having no experience in tactics or war), if the Ukrainians are using their own vehicles as bait in addition to ambushes? Luring in green Russian conscripts with an old T-62 and then tagging a T-70 with a javelin may not be all that hard, especially in the heat of battle.

Regardless, javelins appear to be an important factor in this war.
Perhaps this is cynical of me, but I think NATO would gladly sell them anything so long as the military-industrial complex profited sufficiently. The lives of soldiers are not a priority for CEOs, board members, or their pet politicians. Even our own veterans were fair game for many years, to the point where some were killing themselves outside VA facilities in protest of their ill treatment. People who would prey on their own soldiers would surely prey on other soldiers in a proxy war. Arranging for all the oldest and least reliable weapons to be shipped out, to be replaced by new (expensive) weapons purchased from General Dynamics, Raytheon, et al, would serve their purpose.
 
So I take you can understand why I am more on the side of the Russians.

Not really. If your objection to the EU is sovereignty based (like the UK's was, which is why they left it,) I'm not sure why you'd support a regional power that's effectively annexed Belarus and is invading another neighbor in an effort to turn them into a puppet state, too.

When the UK left the EU the EU didn't fucking invade them.
They're attacking Ukraine in February-March which is when off roading is tough. Or have you not hear of the spring thaw?
Glacially? 20% of Ukraine has fallen and the capital is threatened. There is such things as operational pauses to rest and regroup after a major advance. Read up on WW2 to learn some things and realize this is a higher intensity war that than due to technology.

Russian advances on Kyiv have been stalled for close to two weeks now, and the Ukrainians are now taking ground back from them in counterattacks. That's one hell of an "operational pause." Maybe they should've timed their attack better, no? But that'd require a level of competence that has been demonstrably lacking, hence why they're getting their asses whipped by a nation that was supposed to be a lot smaller and weaker than they are.

Remind me how many battles and how long it took for Fallujah to fall against much weaker opposition? Turns out trying to take a city while not killing masses of civilians or suffer crippling losses takes longer than ADHD American attention spans can focus.

Over a month, which was, as you said, with a much greater discrepancy of force on both sides. Which means that it's going to take three months for the Russians to take Mariupol, if ever, and by the time they're done the units engaged there will be combat-ineffective from heavy casualties. Which means they're stuck there, kiddo. They ain't going fuckin nowhere. They're never redeploying to the Dontesk line, and given how heavy the fighting around Izyum is, and how many dead naval infatryman are showing up around Izyum and Mariupol in Russian media obituaries, the Russians have committed their last real reserve of trained infantry manpower already. It's fuckin over, kiddo. That 10,000 KIA statistic the Rooksies let slip because "they were hacked" lol right sure, given 200,000 troops total deployed equals about 100,000 frontline troops (the rest are truck drivers etc) and the standard ratio of 1/3rd combat casualties being immediate KIA, that means 30,000ish out-of-action Russian troops, 1/3rd the frontline firepower. Good luck scaring up replacement manpower, Russia! Ukraine has their entire reserve force available, hundreds of thousands, because they're fighting on their home territory whereas Putin would have to deploy conscripts (which he legally can't) and send them to fight against people fighting for their own homeland and families.

I heard all this same fuckin cope when the war started, from the Western ~analysts~ who told everyone Ukraine was going to fall fast. And they were still jerking off over it a week in, insisting on the fAsT rAtE oF aDvaNcE, comparisons to Desert Storm, the whole nine yards. And now they're all really fuckin quiet. As Ukrainian counterattacks begin to encircle that gigglefuck northwest of Kyiv and fighting over Irpin still rages, I notice all that copenick jerking off over "boiled in a cauldron!" has suddenly ceased. Hmm. I wonder why.
 
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