Conservatism and the Environment

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I don't know. Where any excess energy gets deposited in climate is a very complicated question. Let's say we do, continue.

In a 5 day period during the late European heat-wave, when that heat-wave reached Greenland, it melted an excess 40 billion tons of ice during that 5 day period of 30 July - 3 August. Total melt was 55 billion tons and normal melt was 40 billion tons. Mass-balance is easy based on satellite data. It takes 12,000 BTU/hr for 24 hrs to melt one ton of ice (doing this in reverse, freezing the ice, gives us a "refrigeration ton", commonly used in industry). Doing this calculation shows that during that five day period excess heat was being applied at the rate of 2.8 terawatts to the Greenland ice sheet.
 

Iconoclast

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I'm a leftie, but I'm happy to see that there is conservative interest in protecting the present ecosystem. I mean, one would think that conservatism and conservation of natural resources would go hand in hand, right?

The biggest problem with protecting the ecosystem is that it is a very complex system that we don't fully understand. People have tried eliminating pests and re-engineering the food chain before, like with Mao's "Great Leap Forward". It has always ended in disaster.

Without human meddling, the ecosystem will tend towards a natural balance, a kind of homeostasis only interrupted by large-scale disasters like huge eruptions or meteor impacts, and even then, only temporarily; extinction events are simply opportunities for new species to evolve, in time. If we are caught in a situation where we must engineer the Earth for our needs, then we must understand that we are doing this largely for ourselves, for the continued survival of our own species.

Humans might not have been the only intelligent species to have ever evolved on Earth. In deep time, millions and millions of years ago, there might have been another, but all the evidence would be gone by now. Even if we go extinct, there might be others, yet, who will appear at some point in the future. It is natural for us to feel existential dread at the possibility of human extinction. I feel like it's intrinsically false for people to characterize environmentalism as a selfless desire to protect the environment, because no matter what we do, Earth will still harbor life millions of years from now. Really, it's a selfish desire to protect ourselves from destruction.

So, that's the first thing we should do. We should characterize it as an anti-extinction project, because that's what it fundamentally is.

Now, this is an extraordinary time for any human being to be alive, because the past hundred years have been fundamentally different in character from the previous thousand before them. The personal computer as we know it has only existed for a handful of decades, and yet, I am speaking to you from across the globe, typing on a laptop in my bedroom. This is a remarkable, momentous time, and yet, people are so acclimated to it now, they see it as mundane.

Industrialization has offered the illusion of mankind escaping nature, but we are still beholden to nature. We are still part of the ecosystem and dependent on a wide variety of organisms for our own survival, which, in turn, are dependent on other organisms, and so on. I have always felt that the best way to avoid damaging the environment would be for mankind to attain a kind of true ecosystem-independence, such that the methodologies used could also be employed for space colonization. Things like fusion reactors, hydroponics, and so on. If we can survive on an ecosystem-in-a-jar, we could survive on Mars, or anywhere. Moreover, such "jarred ecosystems" would have minimal impact on the natural environment around them, if they were properly designed as closed-loop systems.

Think about the way farming works right now. It releases tons of greenhouse gases, erodes the soil, kills plant cover, leads to desertification and aquifer depletion, and so on. An indoor vertical farm with LED grow lights, hydroponics systems, and recycled water has no such problems whatsoever. No need for pesticides, since it's a sealed building that doesn't let pests in, and food can be grown year-round, because it's a climate-controlled environment that doesn't care if it's wintry outside. By removing ourselves from the ecosystem and creating our own isolated systems of subsistence, we can preserve our environment.

However, this, in itself, could have some unforeseen social issues, like the movement of agriculture from a rural to an urban environment and the choking-out of rural livelihoods. People speak of these things in optimistic terms, because it shortens supply lines and seemingly improves agricultural efficiency, but really, what we're saying when we suggest things like indoor farms is that we should eliminate the farmer and replace him with an "indoor farm technician". An urban-dweller. This would, in turn, promote urbanization, and while urban environments are efficient, they are also fraught with technical, social, and political difficulties of their own.

I am actually very interested in conservative input on this issue, because it seems to me that city-dwellers are being unnecessarily cruel to rural-dwellers by destroying their livelihoods. Coal mining jobs, factory jobs, sawmill jobs, agricultural jobs... if everything dries up, then ruralism as we know it will die. That's not a pleasant prospect. It's a very dangerous idea.
 

Marduk

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In a 5 day period during the late European heat-wave, when that heat-wave reached Greenland, it melted an excess 40 billion tons of ice during that 5 day period of 30 July - 3 August. Total melt was 55 billion tons and normal melt was 40 billion tons. Mass-balance is easy based on satellite data. It takes 12,000 BTU/hr for 24 hrs to melt one ton of ice (doing this in reverse, freezing the ice, gives us a "refrigeration ton", commonly used in industry). Doing this calculation shows that during that five day period excess heat was being applied at the rate of 2.8 terawatts to the Greenland ice sheet.
In light of the longer term of this summer those numbers are even more impressive, but in the scale of affecting sea levels or other meaningful effects on civilization, that adds up to severe changes only in timeframes of a size where civilization, its impact on climate, and climate's impact on it are going to be very hard to predict.
After all, the whole ice sheet is 2,850,000 cubic kilometres, each of them representing about 0.93 billion tons of ice. As such, yearly losses in range of three digit billions per year would take truly historical timespans to put a major dent in the whole thing, a mere 100,000 cubic kilometers, ~1/29 of it, would take a century or few.

Coincidentally, for one, after one iteration "century or few", the issue of fossil fuel use will be moot, as in anything resembling current use rates, by that time the known reserves will be long out, more likely than not making them quite scarce and impractical as a major energy source.
 
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Iconoclast

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In light of the longer term of this summer those numbers are even more impressive, but in the scale of affecting sea levels or other meaningful effects on civilization, that adds up to severe changes only in timeframes of a size where civilization, its impact on climate, and climate's impact on it are going to be very hard to predict.
After all, the whole ice sheet is 2,850,000 cubic kilometres, each of them representing about 0.93 billion tons of ice. As such, yearly losses in range of three digit billions per year would take truly historical timespans to put a major dent in the whole thing, a mere 100,000 cubic kilometers, ~1/29 of it, would take a century or few.

I think food security is almost a bigger concern at this point than sea level rise. What about soil loss? Every year, it's about 12 million hectares turned into desert out of about 1.4 billion total hectares of arable land. That's the whole area of North Korea, but spread out across the globe. At the current rate, it will all be gone in about 120 years, and that's assuming that food demands don't increase. The thing is, however, food demands are increasing, and they're increasing rapidly, especially as the world's population not only increases, but also as they're becoming wealthier and shifting more from a plant-based diet to a meat-based diet to reflect this. This, in turn, means more plants being used as animal feed, which means even more intensive agriculture and more soil erosion. Global warming can also kill plants and reduce yields.

George Monbiot had a very disturbing article on this phenomenon:


The trouble begins where everything begins: with soil. The UN’s famous projection that, at current rates of soil loss, the world has 60 years of harvests left, appears to be supported by a new set of figures. Partly as a result of soil degradation, yields are already declining on 20% of the world’s croplands.

Now consider water loss. In places such as the North China Plain, the central United States, California and north-western India – among the world’s critical growing regions – levels of the groundwater used to irrigate crops are already reaching crisis point. Water in the Upper Ganges aquifer, for example, is being withdrawn at 50 times its recharge rate. But, to keep pace with food demand, farmers in south Asia expect to use between 80 and 200% more water by the year 2050. Where will it come from?

The next constraint is temperature. One study suggests that, all else being equal, with each degree celsius of warming the global yield of rice drops by 3%, wheat by 6% and maize by 7%. These predictions could be optimistic. Research published in the journal Agricultural & Environmental Letters finds that 4C of warming in the US corn belt could reduce maize yields by between 84 and 100%.

If the rate of soil erosion continues to increase, why, all the arable land and accessible aquifers could be gone by the end of the century. If we transition to indoor farming, then we'd need a lot of acreage of ideal land to build vertical farm structures, and we'd need fairly cheap and carbon-neutral electricity for grow lighting and climate control. The whole thing is a pretty challenging prospect, economically and socially-speaking.
 

Marduk

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I think food security is almost a bigger concern at this point than sea level rise. What about soil loss? Every year, it's about 12 million hectares turned into desert out of about 1.4 billion total hectares of arable land. That's the whole area of North Korea, but spread out across the globe. At the current rate, it will all be gone in about 120 years, and that's assuming that food demands don't increase. The thing is, however, food demands are increasing, and they're increasing rapidly, especially as the world's population not only increases, but also as they're becoming wealthier and shifting more from a plant-based diet to a meat-based diet to reflect this. This, in turn, means more plants being used as animal feed, which means even more intensive agriculture and more soil erosion. Global warming can also kill plants and reduce yields.
I think the term "spread around the globe" is very misleading here. It's far from being evenly spread around the globe. It's focused on certain geographical areas, with certain local conditions, and certain farming practices. In most of them it will take much less than 120 years, and in others, much more, if it's not sustainable for foreseeable future overall.
It's a bad case of "me and my dog, on average, are three legged creatures" style statistics, combined with very simple extrapolation, and all the problems those usually bring.
Same goes for climate change effects on farming. Sure, in some areas it may well be devastating. But nothing says that for some others, particularly currently very cold ones, it won't increase yields.
If the rate of soil erosion continues to increase, why, all the arable land and accessible aquifers could be gone by the end of the century. If we transition to indoor farming, then we'd need a lot of acreage of ideal land to build vertical farm structures, and we'd need fairly cheap and carbon-neutral electricity for grow lighting and climate control. The whole thing is a pretty challenging prospect, economically and socially-speaking.
Considering the sheer cost of these things due to their technical complexity, is not something anyone sane will be doing anytime soon. When a pressing need shows up, then some will, with the tools available at that time.
 

Spartan303

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It can be argued that Human activity can and has affected the climate and environment. A fair point to argue, which everyone is doing and doing well.

But what about active measures to address the causes of climate change and restore the environment?

Lets talk about the Ocean clean up effort. I've been following for a bit and even donated. I think this has incredible potential to clean up our oceans and prevent this from happening again in the future. But don't take my word for it, please, take a look for yourselves and make your own judgments.



This one also has promise. Reforestation efforts in the Amazon basin. They're looking to plant upwards of 73 million trees in Brazil alone.

The world's largest ever tropical reforestation effort is Planting 73 Million Trees in the Brasilian Amazon. After years of devastation, finally good news for our planet's green lung. Brazil gives green a chance.


There are other websites dedicated to reforestation projects but I'm not seeing much details in their sites so I'm leery of posting them.


Now, worried about Carbon emissions? Carbon capture technology is looking to address that very issue. Here are just a few vids on them.






Now obviously energy is a huge concern to meet our needs for the future. And much as the renewable show promise, the technology is just not there yet. Which means we need alternatives. One of them is the new Modular nuclear reactor which shows some promise.



There are more vids on this subject on youtube but the applications of this technology is fascinating and potentially revolutionary.

And there is so much out there to address issues from saving the great barrier reef, to using desalination plants and ocean water to bring clean drinking water to people far inland in need of it.

The challenges are big, but big minds are already working on solutions. They will not be easy and will need support, so if you can I would suggest supporting them, but there are options.
 

Iconoclast

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I think the term "spread around the globe" is very misleading here. It's far from being evenly spread around the globe. It's focused on certain geographical areas, with certain local conditions, and certain farming practices. In most of them it will take much less than 120 years, and in others, much more, if it's not sustainable for foreseeable future overall.
It's a bad case of "me and my dog, on average, are three legged creatures" style statistics, combined with very simple extrapolation, and all the problems those usually bring.
Same goes for climate change effects on farming. Sure, in some areas it may well be devastating. But nothing says that for some others, particularly currently very cold ones, it won't increase yields.

Technically, you're right; the effects of desertification are more profound in the equatorial regions, where a lot of the poorer countries are. I could see a coming food security crisis in a lot of these hotter, drier equatorial areas in the near future, leading to a mass exodus of people and even more immigration problems and sociopolitical strife, to the point where it could even lead directly into WWIII.



Considering the sheer cost of these things due to their technical complexity, is not something anyone sane will be doing anytime soon. When a pressing need shows up, then some will, with the tools available at that time.

Pesticide-free indoor agriculture could have some other benefits. Aside from conserving soil and fresh water, it could also prevent Colony Collapse Disorder and the death of bees, which has been blamed on the overuse of pesticides. Apparently, crops grown in indoor vertical farms are of very high quality, yielding blemish-free, weighty produce.

The main problem is, as you said, the costs involved. Many vertical farming startups have failed because the whole concept isn't very commercially-viable as yet. There are a number of fascinating reasons why they've failed, and though I've seen some of my friends present them as a panacea for food security, I think there are some significant challenges to overcome:



 

Marduk

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Technically, you're right; the effects of desertification are more profound in the equatorial regions, where a lot of the poorer countries are. I could see a coming food security crisis in a lot of these hotter, drier equatorial areas in the near future, leading to a mass exodus of people and even more immigration problems and sociopolitical strife, to the point where it could even lead directly into WWIII.
Yeah, most people with an idea more or less agree that to some level a bunch of countries there will be in major trouble one way or another, the specific details being contested, but the in general, guess so.
However, i fail to see how famine in that region and attempts at mass migration due to it would cause WW3 as anything other than ridiculously unlikely result. After all, famine already happened there in mid XX century, at the height of the Cold War, yet no WW3. A random leadership succession crisis in Russia or China can bring us way closer to a WW3 grade situation than this, and far more suddenly too. Loads of starving people are hardly something that the major powers will feel eager to fight about.

The main problem is, as you said, the costs involved. Many vertical farming startups have failed because the whole concept isn't very commercially-viable as yet.
Until they can produce something on mass scale at least similarly priced as normal farming, it will be stuck in niche applications and markets where pricing competitive with general markets is not a decisive issue for their customers.
That, as long as it remains the case, makes it a completely non fitting solution for countries that have enough trouble importing food even at the market prices to begin with.
 

Navarro

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Humankind has been manipulating the environment to better suit itself for thousands of years - in many ways it can be thought of as one of our defining traits as a species. Now some of this manipulation has had negative side effects, definitely, but destroying or cutting back technological civilisation to try and minimise our impact on the planet is not a workable solution.

The real solution is to colonise space - the resources of our own solar system are more than we could need for the foreseeable future, and there's plenty of space to put space colonies.
 
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Battlegrinder

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The real solution is to colonise space - the resources of our own solar system are more than we could need for the foreseeable future, and there's plenty of space to put space colonies.

I feel like if orbital mirrors and other geo engineering systems are mostly sci-fi ideas that aren't yet viable, going full "who needs earth, let's just go to space" is quite a bit farther out than that.
 

Marduk

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High Frontier was technologically viable in the 70s, it’s all a matter of political will.
Technological viability doesn't mean political viability, and in particular economic viability.
It's impressive to what lengths space programs still do in order to limit chance of more and less catastrophic accidents, and the costs and limitations the space programs suffer due to it.
Large scale programs may have need to compromise on such things and be less selective of people and suppliers in order to reach that large scale.
And related but additionally to that, there are sheer economics.
If, say, it's even technologically viable for us to generate orbital solar power and deliver it to Earth, it's a terrible idea to do so if in the end the electricity turns out to cost , for example, 20$/kWh, as any wide scale reliance on that would strangle the very economy that makes such an ambitious project possible, not to mention the political will behind it.
 
D

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Space is the ultimate goal, but in the interim we should switch to fission supplemented by renewables as a stopgap until we can crack fusion.

Nuclear power, in strict technical terms, solve the problem, and thus is not politically desirable to those who find the problem useful, you are correct.
 

Realm

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The real solution is to colonise space - the resources of our own solar system are more than we could need for the foreseeable future, and there's plenty of space to put space colonies.

The real solution is to change our dominant culture from one of infinite growth and consumption into one that doesnt.

Entering space with the ideology of a cancer cell just leads to us being cancer in space!
 

Battlegrinder

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Alternatively- we sort our shit out and stop being cancer

Given the choice between "fundamentally change human nature" and "invent technological workaround to compensate for flaw in human nature", it's usually better to go with the latter, since it has a history of actually working and being possible.
 

Realm

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Do you have any idea how big "space" is?

I really, deeply, need you to understand that the practical ability of us to maintain the ideology of a cancer cell does not justify being a cultural cancer.

Don't make me, a commie, be a better conservative than you are. I'll do it, man, I'll fucking do it.

Given the choice between "fundamentally change human nature" and "invent technological workaround to compensate for flaw in human nature", it's usually better to go with the latter, since it has a history of actually working and being possible.

Human nature being, of course, the universalized culture touchstones of liberal capitalism invented within the last millennium, in certain parts of the world, which required blood and fire to spread.

Sure bud.
 

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