Alternate History Could Operation Barbarossa had been succesful megathread
- Thread starter Buba
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sillygoose
Well-known member
Poland chose not to activate the pact to keep Romania a neutral port they could use:
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sillygoose
Well-known member
Why is France falling in 1939 here? Sure, I don't see why they wouldn't given the consequences of being the odd man out and having Soviet ultimatums dropped on them.
Of course Romania would ask both, Poland in particular due to their alliance from 1921, as well as Italy.
If war starts over Czechoslovakia in 1938, then wouldn't there be a Nazi invasion of France in 1939? If so, wouldn't there be a realistic chance of France falling a year earlier?
sillygoose
Well-known member
Depends on whether the Allies want to keep fighting for Czechoslovakia after the country fell or not. 1938 was not 1939 or 1940. The Allies were much less prepared and even IOTL though it would take years before they were ready to take the offensive.
Assuming the Allies decided to strangle Germany via economic warfare and blockade and Poland opted to stay out of the war then yes we could see a 1939 invasion that would probably go well, though maybe not as well as IOTL. Germany had a greater air advantage then and considerably more combat experience. However economically they weren't really ready for a major campaign as they were in 1939, but were relatively more ready in 1938 relative to the Allies than in 1939. Not having to worry about Poland or occupy it would be pretty helpful, especially if Poland acted as an economic ally and sold Germany the raw materials it needed. Poland had pretty lucrative trade deals with Germany as of 1938.
Buba
A total creep
The Me 109E - the best fighter in the world in '39 and'40 - began to reach units in late '38 or early '39. The earlier version were not so exciting
Yes,it was logical decision - and they were no obliged to help anyway since our leaders run.
sillygoose
Well-known member
Compared to the French and British fighters of the time? Or Czech?
The British had only 16 Hurricane I's as of February 1938 and apparently the engine issue and problems even with the MG armaments effectively meant they were useless in 1938.
The French were still using fixed landing gear fighters IOTL in 1939:
So while the Bf109D was really nothing great it was much better than the opposition, which barely had functional modern fighters and those that were were pretty bad.
There is a reason the Allies gave up on Czechoslovakia in 1938.
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I think that it would be too much of a blow to Allied honor to give up after Czechoslovakia falls. This would also mean that a lot of Allied lives would have been sacrificed in vain, which the Allies would very likely NOT want.
BTW, somewhat off-topic, but you might be interested in this polling:
Gallup Vault: U.S. Opinion and the Start of World War II
On Sept. 1, 1939, Nazi Germany invaded Poland. At the time, Americans favored supporting the Poles, up to a point.
news.gallup.com
1939-1940 Americans did not want the Anglo-French to make peace with Nazi Germany at the expense of either Czechoslovakia or Poland.
sillygoose
Well-known member
IOTL they were willing to throw Czechoslovakia under the bus. But assuming they did they were really not ready for war, with the force ratios being even worse than in 1939. Again there is a reason the Allies didn't fight in 1938, up to and including thinking the Czechs would fall apart pretty quickly.
Pretty easy to want others to do the dying for your desires.
And they expected the Poles to last for several months in 1939 in real life, right?
Similar to Ukraine right now, right?
BTW, some additional polling from that time period:
Gallup Vault: U.S., FDR Won 1939 Popularity Poll in France
In 1939, Gallup conducted simultaneous polls in the U.S. and France on each nation's favorite foreign countries and statesmen. The U.S. led in France, as did FDR.
news.gallup.com
The people of the US, Britain, and France were very friendly towards each other in 1939.
sillygoose
Well-known member
Yep, about 6 months IIRC.
Sadly yes.Similar to Ukraine right now, right?
Not surprising.BTW, some additional polling from that time period:
Gallup Vault: U.S., FDR Won 1939 Popularity Poll in France
In 1939, Gallup conducted simultaneous polls in the U.S. and France on each nation's favorite foreign countries and statesmen. The U.S. led in France, as did FDR.
The people of the US, Britain, and France were very friendly towards each other in 1939.
Do you think that the Polonkadonks (Poles) could have survived for six months had they retreated to eastern Galicia, used Romania as a bridgehead for supplies, and somehow avoided having the USSR invade the eastern part of thir country?
At least the West gets to teach Russia a very painful lesson, though.
Yeah, this is why a peacetime alliance between these three countries in 1919 seemed so rational.
sillygoose
Well-known member
Problem is getting the Soviets to avoid invading. Certainly the Poles tried that strategy, but it failed. They could drag it out somewhat, but 6 months is optimistic.Do you think that the Polonkadonks (Poles) could have survived for six months had they retreated to eastern Galicia, used Romania as a bridgehead for supplies, and somehow avoided having the USSR invade the eastern part of thir country?
At least the West gets to teach Russia a very painful lesson, though.
Yeah, this is why a peacetime alliance between these three countries in 1919 seemed so rational.
I think it is the West that is getting the very painful lesson, not Russia. If anything Russia is learning the extent of its power and the weakness of the West.
In 1919 the interests of those nations diverged; the only reason they were even remotely favorable to one another was the threat of war against Germany again which western media ginned up. Public opinion follows media narratives. Less so today due to the internet.
You should read the German white book that has the documents captured from Polish diplomatic archives; normally I would consider it rank propaganda not worth reading, but President Hoover (in his book "Freedom Betrayed") says his presidential library got the Polish embassy archives as a donation after the war when the Communists took over and the government in exile disbanded and comparing the documents in the Polish files to the German white book documents they are essentially exactly the same but for translation differences (Polish to English vs. Polish to Germany to English).
Buba
A total creep
I know the Polish coo-cool-cloudlanders expected that.
The Entente - the conclusion from military conferences in March and April - knew that in 1939 it could do nothing to assist Poland.
No. German too stronk.
The German white book for World War I? :
If so, what about what it says here? :
Is this information false due to the Polish archives confirming the German documents?
sillygoose
Well-known member
No WW2.
I'm not endorsing most of what it says, just the Polish reports since their authenticity was independently confirmed by Hoover, who was no friend to the Nazis, but rather a humanitarian that helped anyone in need and was very anti-war. In the 1920s the USSR would have faced a famine that made WW2 starvation in the USSR look small in comparison had he not organized food relief, because he believed compassion would prevent future war. Also the Polish ambassador to Britain published his war diary while in London and had a section where he was appalled that the Germans had captured their diplomatic archives intact, something he knew despite claims to the contrary by the exiles from Warsaw due to the documents published by Germany being accurate.
The specific documents I had in mind were reports from the ambassador in Washington about how media manipulation convinced the public in the US and later UK that war was imminent and should be pursued despite it creating an utter disaster for everyone. The Polish ambassador to Washington noted war hysteria in the US that did not exist in Europe in 1938 and blamed it on the media which would not stop talking about it to distract from the collapsing economy and worsening political prospects for the FDR administration. The overall point is that polls, especially back then, are/were a function of media messaging rather than strongly held beliefs.
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Was war fever in France in 1939? I'm presuming that it was stronger in Britain in 1939 than in 1938 and about the same in the US, according to what you're writing?
You know, I wonder how things would have unfolded in a TL where Hughes wins the US Presidency in 1916, followed by a Democratic 1920s, followed by a Republican such as Hoover winning in 1932 and 1936. Hoover's views before and during early World War II were pretty isolationist or at least non-interventionist:
sillygoose
Well-known member
France AFAIK was more despondent about another war, but thought it was a necessity.
Yes AFAIK to the rest.