• Attention All Comstar Customers, We are pleased to report that our HPG systems update was completely successful. Service is fully back online. Sincerely, Comstar Precentor Dune

Federalized Austria Survives First World War

Aldarion

Neoreactionary Monarchist
So instead of historical 1867 Austro-Hungarian compromise, let's say that the Habsburg Monarchy federalizes instead on something similar to the US model before the Civil War, and as a consequence survives the First World War.

How would things go from there, and what impact would Habsburg survival have on the future history, especially potential World War 2?

EDIT: Fixed the year.
 
Last edited:

Buba

A total creep
It was 1867.
No need for US model - Norddeutscherverein example is next door.
A-H was broken up by victors. Some say that a hateboner of masonic anticlerical French elites towards the pillar of Catholicism was a major factor, others say - "because Hungarians". A federal structure was not that important - not losing the war was.
Events preserving an A-H - and a continued A-H - change world history beyond recognition.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
It was 1867.
No need for US model - Norddeutscherverein example is next door.
A-H was broken up by victors. Some say that a hateboner of masonic anticlerical French elites towards the pillar of Catholicism was a major factor, others say - "because Hungarians". A federal structure was not that important - not losing the war was.
Events preserving an A-H - and a continued A-H - change world history beyond recognition.

I think that what would be really nice would be if Poland ever succeeded in breaking away from Russian rule and then received Galicia from A-H in exchange for a Hapsburg King. Bukovina can either completely go to Romania or be split between Poland and Romania in this TL.

I think that both Vienna and Budapest would be much more populous cities in this TL.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
I think that what would be really nice would be if Poland ever succeeded in breaking away from Russian rule and then received Galicia from A-H in exchange for a Hapsburg King. Bukovina can either completely go to Romania or be split between Poland and Romania in this TL.

I think that both Vienna and Budapest would be much more populous cities in this TL.

I think that from a German perspective having a separate, independent, pro-German Poland that includes Galicia would be ideal since that way the Slavic element in the Austrian half of Austria-Hungary would not be politically and electorally dominant:

1280px-Austria_Hungary_ethnic.svg.png


The Austrian half of Austria-Hungary would lose about half of its Slavic population but almost none of its German population in such a scenario. And Poland would become quite content as well!
 

Sergeant Foley

Well-known member
So instead of historical 1878 Austro-Hungarian compromise, let's say that the Habsburg Monarchy federalizes instead on something similar to the US model before the Civil War, and as a consequence survives the First World War.

How would things go from there, and what impact would Habsburg survival have on the future history, especially potential World War 2?
Would this butterfly the Archduke assassination in 1914?
 

Aldarion

Neoreactionary Monarchist
Would this butterfly the Archduke assassination in 1914?

Possibly. I mean, he was killed because he wanted the Monarchy to federalize. But I don't think it would butterfly away the war: Serbia still wants Bosnia, Germany still wants colonies, France still wants revenge, Italy still wants Croatian coast...
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Possibly. I mean, he was killed because he wanted the Monarchy to federalize. But I don't think it would butterfly away the war: Serbia still wants Bosnia, Germany still wants colonies, France still wants revenge, Italy still wants Croatian coast...

@sillygoose argued elsewhere on this forum that FF gave up on trialism/the United States of Greater Austria plan and instead wanted to keep A-H's dualist federal structure intact but simply to implement universal suffrage in Hungary. And for a war to still break out, an alternate trigger needs to be found: An A-H civil war, with Bosnia seceding and wanting to join Serbia, for instance. Or Russia attempting to dismember the Ottoman Empire.
 

Sergeant Foley

Well-known member
Possibly. I mean, he was killed because he wanted the Monarchy to federalize. But I don't think it would butterfly away the war: Serbia still wants Bosnia, Germany still wants colonies, France still wants revenge, Italy still wants Croatian coast...
Translation: The Archduke and his wife still get whacked?
 

Lord Sovereign

Well-known member
A federal greater Austria would have been a massive road block to both the Third Reich and Soviet Union. A strong and stable Hapsburg empire would be the west's tool of choice in containing both communism and fascism, and many of the empire's subjects would see Austria as their protector from these things. Indeed, in this scenario WW2 would not start as we know it with an invasion of Poland after years of appeasement, but with Vienna and Berlin coming to blows over the Sudetenland.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
A federal greater Austria would have been a massive road block to both the Third Reich and Soviet Union. A strong and stable Hapsburg empire would be the west's tool of choice in containing both communism and fascism, and many of the empire's subjects would see Austria as their protector from these things. Indeed, in this scenario WW2 would not start as we know it with an invasion of Poland after years of appeasement, but with Vienna and Berlin coming to blows over the Sudetenland.

Would Poland be willing to fight for the Sudetenland along with the Anglo-French in this TL? Just how effective would the Anglo-French be in sending supplies to the East in such a scenario? Would Italy allow them to move supplies through its own territory or would they have to move these supplies by sea instead?
 

Buba

A total creep
A surving "Austrian Federation" means events in Germany are different and there is no III Reich. Or no Hitler-headed III Reich as we know it.
Not having any USSR is such a scenario is also likely.
WWII breaks out when Austria and Germany jointly kick off Round XX of "Wars for European Domination".
 
Last edited:

WolfBear

Well-known member
WWII breaks out when Austria and Germany jointly kick off Round XX of "Wars for European Domination".

Difficult to do due to Russia's greater strength, no? Unless of course Russia is distracted elsewhere, such as being involved in another war with Japan. And if Russia is too weak, then would there really be an imperative for the CPs to spark a new war? And would their people actually tolerate this? Even Germans were skeptical of Hitler doing this until after the Fall of France, I suspect.

And Kaiser Karl was pro-peace, no? As was his son Otto, IIRC. Not the types who would start a new war or who would support Germany starting a new war.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
@Aldarion Really, it would have benefitted both Serbia and Romania to join A-H if they were rational about this, and assuming that WWI would not have broken out by then. They could have been made their own federal units when combined with Bosnia + Dalmatia (for Serbia) and with Transylvania + Bukovina (for Romania).

I wonder if there was any realistic way for A-H to get Silesia back after 1866. Going to war against Prussia in 1870 while Prussia was also busy with France? Allying with Russia rather than with Prussia after that point in time?
 

Aldarion

Neoreactionary Monarchist
You do know that FF was very anti-war, right?

I am aware. Thing is however, even the old Emperor did not want war OTL. But you do not need to want war to end up in it. Franz Ferdinand survives? Great. War gets delayed. But Serbia still wants to create its Greater Serbian Empire at the expense of Austria-Hungary, Italy still wants Croatian coast. Meaning that it is very likely something will happen. And then there is still the competition between colonial powers in wider Europe, and these events may still draw Austria into them.

And Kaiser Karl was pro-peace, no? As was his son Otto, IIRC. Not the types who would start a new war or who would support Germany starting a new war.

Correct. But if Soviet Union gets formed anyway, then you still have a bunch of stir-crazy revolutionary morons at the helm of a great power. Soviet invasion of Poland in 1920.? They will be invading Germany and/or Austria-Hungary instead.

So how likely is the Communist revolution to happen in the Russian Empire without the war to kick it off?

@Aldarion Really, it would have benefitted both Serbia and Romania to join A-H if they were rational about this, and assuming that WWI would not have broken out by then. They could have been made their own federal units when combined with Bosnia + Dalmatia (for Serbia) and with Transylvania + Bukovina (for Romania).

Eh... Serbia and rationality do not go together, not in this scenario anyway. If somehow Serbia stays under Obrenović dynasty, then maybe, but Serb imperialists became way too strong under the Karađorđević dynasty (including Petar I. and Aleksandar I., so you don't get anybody sane on Serbian throne until regency of Pavle Karađorđević - but actual prince, Petar Karađorđević, was probably no better than previous rulers). Hence why Austro-Hungarian annexation of Bosnia - which was in fact a very logical move, even if it came too late - created a crisis.

Also, why combining Serbia with Bosnia and Dalmatia? Serbia has no historical claim to either area.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
I am aware. Thing is however, even the old Emperor did not want war OTL. But you do not need to want war to end up in it. Franz Ferdinand survives? Great. War gets delayed. But Serbia still wants to create its Greater Serbian Empire at the expense of Austria-Hungary, Italy still wants Croatian coast. Meaning that it is very likely something will happen. And then there is still the competition between colonial powers in wider Europe, and these events may still draw Austria into them.

You still need a casus belli. An Austro-Hungarian civil war, troubles in Ottoman Armenia, et cetera.

Correct. But if Soviet Union gets formed anyway, then you still have a bunch of stir-crazy revolutionary morons at the helm of a great power. Soviet invasion of Poland in 1920.? They will be invading Germany and/or Austria-Hungary instead.

Poland could still come into existence again if Russia goes Communist. It will be a rump Poland, though.

So how likely is the Communist revolution to happen in the Russian Empire without the war to kick it off?

Not very. But a more moderate eventual Russian Revolution is more possible.

Eh... Serbia and rationality do not go together, not in this scenario anyway. If somehow Serbia stays under Obrenović dynasty, then maybe, but Serb imperialists became way too strong under the Karađorđević dynasty (including Petar I. and Aleksandar I., so you don't get anybody sane on Serbian throne until regency of Pavle Karađorđević - but actual prince, Petar Karađorđević, was probably no better than previous rulers). Hence why Austro-Hungarian annexation of Bosnia - which was in fact a very logical move, even if it came too late - created a crisis.

Also, why combining Serbia with Bosnia and Dalmatia? Serbia has no historical claim to either area.

A lot of Serbs live in Bosnia. Albeit much less in Dalmatia, I think. But it would give this Serb federal unit a coastline.
 

Aldarion

Neoreactionary Monarchist
You still need a casus belli. An Austro-Hungarian civil war, troubles in Ottoman Armenia, et cetera.

True. That is why I said the war gets delayed - preventing Franz Ferdinand's murder would remove an immediate cassus belli. But there had been a few such cases in the years preceding the outbreak of the war, and war was only avoided by very active diplomacy between the rulers, so... I don't think they'd even need to wait for too long.

Poland could still come into existence again if Russia goes Communist. It will be a rump Poland, though.

Agreed. Maybe something like Napoleonic Poland?

Not very. But a more moderate eventual Russian Revolution is more possible.

Agreed. Still, Communism would be avoided, which would make Nazi and Fascist rise to power unlikely. This would mean no Second World War.

A lot of Serbs live in Bosnia. Albeit much less in Dalmatia, I think. But it would give this Serb federal unit a coastline.

No Serbs ever lived in Dalmatian coast, so even if you go with ethnic map rather than historical rights, Serbia would not in fact get a coastline. You would just get a completely dysfunctional Croatia and a mostly dysfunctional Serbia - geographic map would not make any sense.

I mean:
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top