Again. Debatable. But this isn't about Colonials vs Earth. This is about the Cylons vs Sol and the Cylons use much thinner armor.
Yeah Cylon Basestars seem to have much thinner armor so it stands to see if the Cylons have an advantage in wireless hacking and electronic warfare which, if not as crippling as with the original colonies, could maybe create smaller disruptions.
Cylons had a big advantage in infiltrating Humanity prior but I doubt such tricks would get much traction due to the lack of shared history and limited number of infiltration forms. Plus the Galactica are quite a boon of intelligence.
In a straight up fight the Cylons would have to find a way to close distance or jump in near to enemy formations before dumping nukes and raiders to WTFPWN the Sol System defenders. Nukes should put a decisive hurt on Sol ships as would likely even the lesser weapons but they'd still have to find a way to close distance.
That means some combination of EW (which isn't guaranteed to work on systems wholly different then what they're familiar with), some sort of tactical close in jumping and/or creating some sort of new tactics such as swarming or distractions or jumping/approaching from multiple angles or whatever.
Given the genre of "grimdark realistic SF" the two occupy, everything goes wrong, all the politicians screw things up, none of the technology will work together or be compatible except for things that make the situation somehow worse, and about 50 - 75% of the people die and a supposed "hopeful" ending is given that really involves a potential extinction level event for humanity.
Suspension of disbelief in regards to the existence of this SF series shattered due to lack of shallow lesbianic relationships detailed in this synopsis.