Genghis Khan dies early.

[Circle of Willis]

'Sigh'

Lets step back again. As you are conflating several events decades apart.

Genghis Khan was no doubt competent and deserves credit for forging an empire with the strength of his right arm.

However, the true test of any General is not besting 3rd rate trash. But taking on a foe who is their equal, does everything right and still loses. then building a firm foundation that takes centuries of decadent rulers to cause a collapse. There are few generals who meet that criteria and Genghis isn't on it and he failed to lay a firm foundation that would keep his Empire together, causing it to fragment and fall apart 22 years after his death.



Perhaps, perhaps not. Jalal still has the Khwarzm Homelands intact which is a solid base of manpower to work with. If Jalal decides to wreck the Qara Khitai and succeeds, he can bring even more resources to the game. Though more likely he strikes a deal with the Kipchaks to supply mercenaries which he can use to bring Transcaucasia and Rum to heel after sweeping up the Abbasids. Depending on how he plays his cards, he might even be able to cut a deal with the Mamluks coming to power in Egypt.

Alternatively without the desperation caused by the Mongol Invasions. Jalal might content himself to simply deposing the Abbasids and bringing Transcaucasia under his sovereignty, helping Rum destroy Cicilia Armenia and striking peace with Mamluk Egypt. This secures Persia, removes the Hayastani claim to the Persian Throne, and gains a Black Sea Port. He can then retrench and consolidate, loan out detachments of his Army to the Rum Turks and Mamluks as needed and develop Persian Infrastructure for a firm foundation he can leave his successors.

And if the Mamluks aren't fighting the Ilkhanate and have peace with a strong Khwarzm, they won't just raid Cyprus, they will go for its conquest along with Rhodes. And if they can get a strong Alliance with Rum and Khwarzm, they may just find the common cause to send an Army to bail out the Almohads.

Then again the Mamluks may just decide to conquer the Almohads themselves if they get a peace deal with the Khwarzm.

So many different threads possible.

In the interest of avoiding derailing this thread into a discussion of Genghis' merits when the POD is that he dies before accomplishing much, I'll leave this as my final statement on the subject: I don't agree that the Jin dynasty or even Muhammad II's Khwarazm could be described as 'third rate' pushovers.

Re: the Cumans/Kipchaks (and other northern steppe peoples), the other posters in this thread seem better-versed in what they're likely to be up to ITL. Can't say I know a whole lot about them, other than that Cumans and Kipchaks seem to have fought for pretty much everyone from Hungary to Georgia to Khwarazm and Egypt, where they became the first Mamluk dynasty - I'll have to refrain from the subject until I do more research.

Jalal's character, as borne out by his actions and described by contemporary chroniclers both, seems to have been that of an aggressive and irrepressible warmonger, so I don't think he'd be content to sit on his laurels and remain at peace for long if he has a choice in the matter. Considering that historically he was constantly fighting his neighbors even while in a very precarious position and never seems to have spared himself any time to stabilize his kingdom, he's probably not going to stop trying to expand from a stronger position until made to stop by whichever major regional power still stands in his way, if they can.

I remain very skeptical of the Egyptians, Seljuks and ascendant Khwarazmians being able to reach an accord. If they totally eliminate the crusader kingdoms between them, they'll have gotten rid of the only common enemy they have - and they all stand to gain a lot more from fighting each other than pursuing further adventures against an increasingly distant Western Christendom. If the Mamluks (being probably the best positioned of the three to strike west) are interested in taking the fight to the Christians, going after Sicily and then the heart of Latin Christianity in Italy (after, and if, they clear the Eastern Mediterranean first) seems a much better use of their resources than trying to shore up the crumbling Almohads, especially since to reach them overland they'd have to slog through the emerging Berber kingdoms in modern Tunisia and Algeria; I doubt they'd be in any hurry to bow to Cairo unless made to do so, either by Mamluk conquest or fear of Christian encroachment, first.

Speaking of Italy, a 1201 POD means there's plenty of time for the Holy Roman Emperor Frederick II to realize his lofty ambitions, or at least avert the ignominious historical destiny of the Hohenstaufens. If the 'Wonder of the World' can subdue the Popes and their Guelph allies, realize his father Henry VI's plan to make the Holy Roman imperial crown hereditary within the Staufer, and basically be the Augustus to Henry's Caesar by welding his four crowns (Germany/Italy/Sicily/Burgundy) together indefinitely, then Christendom will have its own answer to the powers of a non-gutted Islamic world in a Hohenstaufen juggernaut stretching from Lubeck to Syracuse.

Obviously the existence of such a mega-HRE will have a massive impact on the course of European history, but re: Islamic affairs, the Hohenstaufen did eventually obtain the crown of Jerusalem by marriage and would be best positioned out of all the European crusaders to make good on that claim. Frederick II himself actually recovered Jerusalem for Christendom (the last time that would be done before the KoJ lost it for good) by diplomacy in the Sixth Crusade; if they aren't distracted by the Guelph-Ghibelline wars and intrigues back home, his heirs will surely fight to keep it as best they can. (This would also provide the strong Islamic kingdoms of the east with a new common enemy to unite against, and thereby keep them from clawing at each other's throats for at least a little while longer)

Amusingly the Hohenstaufen were not only bitter enemies of the Papacy but also famously tolerant of Islam (Frederick resettled the Saracens of Sicily in Lucera and raised fiercely loyal divisions from their ranks for his many wars), so if they were to represent Christendom's best chance at maintaining a foothold in the Holy Land in general and over Jerusalem in particular...well, that'd be a hell of a historical irony. A probably more realistic (certainly in the long term) outcome is that even if the Staufer are driven from Jerusalem, they'd continue competing with the Egyptians for hegemony over North Africa, following in the footsteps of their Hauteville predecessors in Sicily (who were themselves only finally driven out of Africa in 1160, a couple decades before Frederick's birth, by the Almohads back when the latter were still on the rise).

 

[ATP]

Good point. Christianizing doesn't have to mean Russifying, like I assumed in my post. It can be an ethno-nationally diverse pontic steppe region. But Russians/Ukrainians/Ruthenians should be expected to be demographically better off though! So Pechenegs - Christianizing Turkic speakers on the Pontic steppe?


Ugric speakers on the pontic steppe/Ukraine who end up converting to western Catholicism not Orthodoxy. Interesting.

Actually, taking away the Mongols saves one Muslim group from genocide too (at least for the time and from the particular perpetrators) - the Volga Bulgars.

1.Cumans /another name for Pechengs,i think/ never united facing mongols/or,to be precise,their remnants did so,but still lost/they run to Hungary,survived some time as semi-independent group,but now their descendents are all good hungarians.
so they would not unite now.They woud be facing:

1.muslim Volga Bulgars
2.Hungarian tribe allied with Hungary kingdom
3.Rising Georgia
4.Ruthenian prines/not united,too/

So,let say,50% would become orthodox/in both georgian and ruthenian version/,30% muslims,20% catholics.
And Bulgarian muslim living on Volga was mostly wiped out by mongols,some remnants,unless that hungarian tribe,survived past 1237 - but not for long.
Now,they could become important allies for stronger Persia - or fight them.Muslims,after all,never united in those times.