When it's not?
My understanding of the situation is Salvini and Lega Nord were expecting(and desired) the fall of the previous government, as well as expecting they would be the next one - except they got the rug pulled out from below them. Major strategic planning failure here, if this is true.
That's one theory. 5 star broke the coalition because they are going down in the polls, and they would rather stick to power for a bit more time, even at the price of going down further, than be rendered irrelevant now.
The alternative i've thought out, didn't see anyone else consider it, is that Salvini has thought about it. After all, it's not unusual for a party to stick to power at any cost, especially a party that knows next elections will be bad for it.
It's no secret that Salvini was not too happy with the limits of being in a coalition with 5 star, it was a very tense relationship
since a long time, Salvini's #1 priority, the hardline policy against "migrants" and related issues, being one of the contentious points, as 5S itself is divided on the issue.
It's hardly an ideal situation for Lega, they are in constant struggle with their coalition partner to maintain their flagship policy, probably including lots of compromises on other subjects. Yet he also knows that next elections will shift the balance there, in particular if he's not limited by having to deal with them.
So here's my theory, recently this comes out:
A total of 45,505 irregular migrants and refugees reached Europe by sea since the beginning of 2019, the UN migration agency said Friday, Anadolu Agency reports. Of that figure, 859 died at...
www.middleeastmonitor.com
Hard, independent proof of Salvini's migrant policy success. The high point of Lega's influence in the ruling coalition. But Salvini knows that they are struggling to keep 5S in line on this policy, and doing better than that is unlikely. If the migrant issue goes into history, stops being a pressing matter for the voters, yet Lega is still stuck with expanding capital in the coalition to merely maintain the lack of this problem, which was the major driving force for it's success, it's not going to work out well for Lega in the long term.
They could do much better if they let the coalition partner, competitors and enemies take
lead for a moment until normal elections, giving them an opportunity to bring back the problem fighting which Salvini forged his success out of, and in turn reminding the voters why they need Salvini before the election, which is that one problem no one else seems to be willing to deal with.
Italy's main opposition party said on Wednesday it was ready to hold talks with the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement over forming a government following the collapse of the previous, populist coalition.
www.reuters.com
Zingaretti laid down five conditions that he said should be the backbone of any accord — “loyal membership” of the European Union; giving parliament a central role; economic development based on environmental sustainability; a change in handling migrants and a change to economic policy to boost investment.
ITALY-POLITICS/ (UPDATE 3, PIX):UPDATE 3-Italy's PD raises the bar for possible govt with 5-Star
news.trust.org
On Thursday he raised the stakes further with three more specific conditions: 5-Star must agree to repeal laws on security and immigration passed during its coalition with the League, revise a plan to cut the number of lawmakers to 600 from 945 and immediately commit to a framework agreement with the PD on the 2020 budget.
If that theory is accurate, so far it's all going according to plan. PD will ask 5S to shoot itself in the foot by resigning it's core and/or popular flagship policies in exchange for being in a ruling coalition for the next 3 and a half years. A deal which they will take, if 5S thinks it's screwed next election time either way.
And once election times arrives, "migrant crisis" back on the agenda thanks to the usual bumbling policy that made the large scale smuggling through Italy work well, left's excuses that it's impossible to do anything proven false by Salvini's record, the furious voters will know who to vote for to fix the problem again...
According to the theory, after 2023 Salvini won't need a coalition partner, at least not a major one or a grumbling one like 5S.
