Breaking News Robert F Kennedy Jr. is considering a 2024 POTUS Run To Challenge Biden

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Husky_Khan said:
Maybe if your a legal eagle it makes legal sense that RFK Jr isn't an "Independent" candidate but it seems pretty spurious anyways.

I'm not even the sure of the logic of it using just common sense. I don't see how RFK Jr could clearly draw away votes just from Biden and not from Trump as well considering how contrarian he is to both parties and candidates. The right wing media might report on him more positively, but that's because the left wing and mainstream media doesn't report positively on any candidate to any degree besides Biden.

If the Right Wing media outlets are praising RFK Jr... that means it'll target right wing voters primarily. RFK Jr might draw away some Democratic voters but they'd be like "Post-Left" Glenn Greenwald and Jimmy Dore types who seem pretty niche as is anyways.

Might as well call Jill Stein or Cornel West spoilers, I think they're more aligned with the "Democratic Campaign" in a general sense, far more then RKF Jr is.
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Democrats definitely think of Jill Stein as a spoiler candidate in principle, their only question is whether she gets enough votes to be an effective spoiler. Florida 2000 is etched into the bones of every Democrat who witnessed it and they will never forget or forgive the Green Party. I don't know if they care about Cornell West at all.

As for RFKJ, I agree that it's unclear who he takes more votes from. And I think both R and D party leadership is similarly unsure. Clearly the people behind this lawsuit seem to have a strong opinion, though.

I was pretty convinced by some commentary I saw to the effect that it's better to ignore his national effect and focus on his likely effect on the races in the specific states most likely to be decided by small margins. It is very unlikely that the two effects are identical.
 
Husky_Khan said:
Campaign over and so goes his protection
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5f76488774fe5b0018a8e9b6

"Lets go for a Drive." - Hillary Clinton
 
The Deep State: "Hmm... Do we have any more registered republican shooters gaslit by the feds and ready to go? One of those taking out RFK would work well for us. Send a message to other democrats."

Other Deep State Person: "Good idea! Let's just pull the secret service off him to prep. They can't pull the incompetence play again with so much heat on them after the Trump thing."

The Deep State: "Ugh... Can you believe they screwed that up? It was perfect. They had everything set up and they blew it."
 
Rocinante said:
I don't know all the details about the poll. Can't answer that. You'll have to look it up if you want to know that stuff.

Look, using basic logic, you can tell immediately that almost no democrats will be voting for him.

He's anti-vax and anti funding Ukraine. Those are big deal breakers for democrats.

Further, he's going to run on a platform of attacking the DNC, and most of the middle/upper-middle/educated class love the democrat establishment.

Everything he is doing is poison for democrats and attractive to many right leaning voters who aren't totally sold on Trump and are just voting against Biden. Trump needs those voters to win.

RFK is the most dangerous thing for Trump's campaign so far.

I'm calling it now: if RFK runs independent, Democrats win in a landslide. No cheating needed.

I'm patient. We'll wait and see. I'm even going to put a reminder in my phone that links to this post for the day after the election, and we'll revisit then, to see if I was right.
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Well, it's not the day after the election like I promised, since he dropped out, but looking back on this prediction, felt like revisiting.

I was indeed correct that RFK was going to pull more votes from Trump, which is why he dropped out of the race. His main interest is punching the democrats.
 
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