Middle East Running Iranian threat news and discussion thread

[GoldRanger]

Yup. And Iran has proven again and again that it is willing to play this game at this specific level of escalation. As such, this will continue until circumstances change.

The difference is that Israel attacks only targets of military importance (military bases and convoys in Syria, nuclear facilities, ships transporting weapons or other resources of military value to enemy nations). Iran attacked a British operated, Japanese owned cargo ship that did not transport anything Israeli, wasn't even travelling to or from Israel, wasn't used by the Israeli government, its only affiliation with Israel (if you can even call it that) is the operating company being partially owned by an Israeli citizen.

 

[Marduk]

The difference is that Israel attacks only targets of military importance (military bases and convoys in Syria, nuclear facilities, ships transporting weapons or other resources of military value to enemy nations). Iran attacked a British operated, Japanese owned cargo ship that did not transport anything Israeli, wasn't even travelling to or from Israel, wasn't used by the Israeli government, its only affiliation with Israel (if you can even call it that) is the operating company being partially owned by an Israeli citizen.

They don't care about infidel laws of war obviously, and better targets i guess were hard to reach, assuming ships more associated with Israel don't cross the threat zone of proxy warfare near Yemen unobserved.

 

[Bacle]

 

[ATP]

A British and a Romanian citizens die in Iranian drone attack on a civilian ship, Japanese owned and operated by a British company belonging to an Israeli businessman.

Two Europeans killed in incident on board oil tanker off Oman coast

Two Europeans have died after an incident off the Oman coast on board the oil tanker Mercer Street, the ship's owners have confirmed.

www.euronews.com

2 crewmen slain in strike on Israeli-operated ship; Jerusalem blames Iran

Suicide drone apparently targeted ship managed by Eyal Ofer's Zodiac Maritime near Oman; company says British, Romanian staff died; reports that one of those killed was the captain

www.timesofisrael.com

This is an out and out terror attack. The ship is not a valid target even in wartime, it did not carry a resource of any kind, or held any strategic importance beyond being affiliated with an Israeli. But that's Iran for ya.

Israel support Saudi Arabia in conqering Jemen.Jemen retaliated using iranian weapons.When you start supporting conqer of country X,do not be suprised when country X retaliate.

 

[Marduk]

Israel support Saudi Arabia in conqering Jemen.Jemen retaliated using iranian weapons.When you start supporting conqer of country X,do not be suprised when country X retaliate.

Conquering? How strange then that not the Saudis, but the Houthis have killed Yemen's president who was in office since the 90's.

 

[ATP]

Conquering? How strange then that not the Saudis, but the Houthis have killed Yemen's president who was in office since the 90's.

Not thanks to free elections.
And in Africa we have tribes - and killing presidents from another tribe is african norm/except Israel/,and considering that Houthis manage to take over easily after doing so,most of population supported them.
Considering that Saudis with super-duper stuff do not manage to win,most population is still against them.

 

[Marduk]

Not thanks to free elections.
And in Africa we have tribes - and killing presidents from another tribe is african norm/except Israel/,and considering that Houthis manage to take over easily after doing so,most of population supported them.
Considering that Saudis with super-duper stuff do not manage to win,most population is still against them.

No, it means Houthis are good at fighting and have some support. While considering the legendary incompetence of Arab armies, being good at fighting relatively to them is not a huge challenge.
Majority wise though, Yemen is 25-35% Shia. Do you believe so many Sunnis would support being ruled by Shia proxies of Iran? I for one find that hard to believe.

 

[GoldRanger]

https://news.yahoo.com/u-k-romania-summon-iranian-124058128.html

The brits are not happy.

The British and Romanian governments summoned the Iranian ambassadors to London and Bucharest on Monday to protest last week's drone strike on an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman, which both countries have attributed to Iran.

Boris Johnson: Iran must "face the consequences" of alleged ship attack

 

[Cherico]

https://news.yahoo.com/u-k-romania-summon-iranian-124058128.html

The brits are not happy.

to be fair have the brits been happy since the viking invasions?

 

[ATP]

No, it means Houthis are good at fighting and have some support. While considering the legendary incompetence of Arab armies, being good at fighting relatively to them is not a huge challenge.
Majority wise though, Yemen is 25-35% Shia. Do you believe so many Sunnis would support being ruled by Shia proxies of Iran? I for one find that hard to believe.

Houthis are winning with Iran support,when there is only 30% od shia there.
supporters of former president are loosing with Saudi Arabia,USA and Izrael support when most of population are sunni.

It means,that Houthis must be supported by vast majority of other tribes,including sunni.And in Africa it is like election really look like/except Israel/ - tribe which is popular win war.Becouse one tribe could not win war/unless they get USA,China.whatever support and others have spears or at best old rifles/

 

[Marduk]

Houthis are winning with Iran support,when there is only 30% od shia there.
supporters of former president are loosing with Saudi Arabia,USA and Izrael support when most of population are sunni.

It means,that Houthis must be supported by vast majority of other tribes,including sunni.And in Africa it is like election really look like/except Israel/ - tribe which is popular win war.Becouse one tribe could not win war/unless they get USA,China.whatever support and others have spears or at best old rifles/

It's Middle East, not Africa, so as usual it's more complicated.
Israel and USA provide only little and covert support. Saudis are the embodiment of the Arab army meme so they would need handholding pretty much, which they aren't getting, because of it their ground forces are dependent on mercenaries of various quality, and the good ones are obviously sent to protect their long and porous border and oil infrastructure - leaving the crappy forces for offensives inside Yemen, with expected results.

Houthis are well organized since a long time, and heavily supported by Iran, which aids with training, organization and equipment. Meanwhile the Sunnis are divided, the more militant part of them is not even ok for Saudis to support because they are moderate beheaders, and they aren't more interested in fighting the Houthis than fighting the Sunni government that the Saudis support, and then there's random tribal militias who are in it only for themselves, so it's more of a deathmatch than a simple, two coalition war.

Here's a somewhat recent map to demonstrate what an unholy mess the frontlines are:

For comparison, a map from 2015:

As you can see, not much has changed, the Houthis have in fact lost a little territory, but other than that they have bunkered down in their support centers, holding them, and being a pain in the ass, because they don't have heavy forces to assault enemy positions on large scale, while the other side is a circus on wheels and is too busy not falling apart and keeping moderate beheaders in line to start making advances.

 

[Husky_Khan]

A thousand American bucks for the China vaccine.

 

[GoldRanger]

Iran-backed forces seize tanker, maritime sources say; Iran denies it

Iranian-backed forces are believed to have seized an oil tanker in the Gulf off the coast of the United Arab Emirates, three maritime security sources said, after Britain's maritime trade agency reported a "potential hijack" in the area on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

Looks like the Iranians are doubling down, despite their previous denials.

On Tuesday afternoon at least five ships in the sea between the UAE and Iran updated their AIS tracking status to "Not Under Command", according to Refinitiv ship tracking data. Such a status generally indicates a ship is unable to manoeuvre due to exceptional circumstances.
Reuters could not confirm this Refinitiv data had any connection to the reported incident.

Iran-backed armed attackers suspected of seizing tanker off UAE coast

A group of eight or nine armed individuals, suspected of being backed by Iran, are believed to have boarded the vessel, a security source tells Sky News.

news.sky.com

Reports are still a complete mess, but for now it looks like a civilian ship may have been hijacked by suspected Iranian proxy forces.

 

[Bacle]

Iran-backed forces seize tanker, maritime sources say; Iran denies it

Iranian-backed forces are believed to have seized an oil tanker in the Gulf off the coast of the United Arab Emirates, three maritime security sources said, after Britain's maritime trade agency reported a "potential hijack" in the area on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

Looks like the Iranians are doubling down, despite their previous denials.

Iran-backed armed attackers suspected of seizing tanker off UAE coast

A group of eight or nine armed individuals, suspected of being backed by Iran, are believed to have boarded the vessel, a security source tells Sky News.

news.sky.com

Reports are still a complete mess, but for now it looks like a civilian ship may have been hijacked by suspected Iranian proxy forces.

This, just after they killed that Brit and Romanian in the last attack.

Iran must really be facing a lot of internal turmoil, and want the US/UK, etc. to attack them to drum up domestic support.

 

[GoldRanger]

This, just after they killed that Brit and Romanian in the last attack.

Iran must really be facing a lot of internal turmoil, and want the US/UK, etc. to attack them to drum up domestic support.

It's still not 100% certain that it's Iran (they're denying involvement), but they're certainly the primary suspect. (EDIT: The Iranians are now claiming that the reports are basically a western ploy to justify an attack against Iran)

It looks like about an hour ago the Asphalt Princess' GPS locator was turned off. I've seen an unconfirmed report that its last direction of movement before falling off grid was towards the Iranian shore.

Also, an Omani C-295 recon plane took off and surveyed the area where the ships are.

Mysterious "Potential Hijack" Of Commercial Ship Ongoing In The Gulf Of Oman (Updated)

Reports of a "non-piracy" maritime hijacking in the Middle East come just days after a fatal drone strike on an Israeli-operated tanker.

www.thedrive.com

This incident is already several hours old but reports are still incredibly vague and tentative. Nobody knows what's going on (at least nobody the public has access to).

 

[GoldRanger]

 

[Sobek]

Gulf of Tonkin incident - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[GoldRanger]

 

[ATP]

Iran was accused of helping Al Kaida.They do not do that/Saudi did/
Iran was accused of helping ISIS.They were fighting them,and Lebannon was saved from ISIS by Iran supported Hezbollah.And ISIS was initially supported by USA.
So,it is at least 50% of chance that again Iran is framed for something made by Saudis.Or USA.Or Izrael.Or all of them.

 

[Husky_Khan]

I love the replies of it being a Mossad operation. Israelis... hijacking ships in the straights and bringing them to Iran to make it look like Iran is hijacking them... or something. 🤷‍♀️

Maybe they'll blow up the ship because... that's totally a thing that can be disguised and made to look like something else.

Just as easy as feigning a few machine gun attacks at night in the Gulf of Tonkin.