Trump's Unseen Advantage

[The Original Sixth]

2016 taught everyone that polls aren't always accurate. Certainly there were accurate polls, but just as often we see lots and lots of inaccurate polling being done. The most inaccurate polls were generally in states that were believed to be safe, but were actually in danger of being lost. Examples include Wisconsin and Michigan.

Some of you might have heard that the black pills are screaming that Trump is going to lose. Our favorite Mike Cernobitch, is one of the primary people insisting that Trump and by extent the GOP, is going to get wiped out in 2020. Whether this is Cernovich trying to panic people into voting (possible) or is simply whoring himself by trying to stir the pot (a bit more likely) is anyone's guess. That said, he does raise some points.

1. Trump has lost the internet tough guy crowd. At least as of now. The reason is that it's much easier to act like a tough guy while risking nothing, than it is to engage in a political power struggle that makes Star Trek 3D chess look childish in comparison. Despite the fact that Trump is winning on nearly all fronts, he hasn't acted like the reckless badass that Mike Cernobitch jerks off to at night.
2. Trump has not defended alt-media groups as much as they would have liked. Mister Metokur called it about two years ago; Trump wasn't going to step in and stop Google from attacking the right on their platforms because he wanted to make it a campaign issue in 2020. That's a cold move to make, especially when you're leaving your allies out to freeze, but the fact is that it's working. Ted Cruz is pushing for Parler as an alternative site, while Trump is pushing forward with means of punishing Google, Facebook, and Twitter by forcing them to either choose to be an open platform or to act as a publisher that edits. All three are now wide open for painful lawsuits.
3. Trump has let down the Law and Order types by holding off on his response to the riots, as well as average voters. Average voters were more upset by Trump acting so late, then what actually happened after he deployed the military.

While this is all true, I think people like Cernovich overstate the situation. I would point some people here towards Styxx. Various posters here will know that I think that Styxx is overrated. And while I still hold this to be true, please--please know that Styxx is very, very good at understanding polling data. And what Styxx will tell you is the obvious; first that while Trump has lost support over the past few months, this is under immense pressure by an epidemic, riots, and his political opponents. All of which may not exist in November.

So if you want really accurate information on polling, go to him. And yes, RCP (real clear politics) is a good source for seeing the full spread of polls taken. In fact, I used it and looked at 2016 and now in 2020. I looked closely at four swing states from 2016; Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Florida. These states are under heavy scrutiny by the DNC, because Trump won these by very, very narrow margins. 0.7, 0.7, 0.3, and 1.2 respectfully. Those are the most in play.

What's interesting was that in 2016, the polls were inaccurate in who was favored. They were:

• Wisconsin -- +6.5 Clinton
• Pennsylvania -- +1.9 Clinton
• Michigan -- +3.4 Clinton
• Florida -- +2 Clinton

Wisconsin and Michigan were actually way off. Most of that was due to a lack of polling, but even Pennsylvania and Florida were off by a fair margin by election day. Now, while some of that is due to voters shifting back and forth, it's also true that a lot of these polls were outlandishly in favor of Clinton often by double digits throughout the election. I suspect that the purpose of that was to bump up the spread for Clinton by a few points (because a lot of people do look at the spread) while also being used as the occasional cudgel against Trump supporters

• Wisconsin -- +0.7 Trump (7.2)
• Pennsylvania -- +0.7 points (2.6)
• Michigan -- +0.3 Trump (3.7)
• Florida -- +1.2 Trump (3.2)

To the right is the numerical value that the pro-Clinton finding polls were off by. Wisconsin is by far the worst and is probably an outlier. What we can see though is that the polls generally undervalue Trump's support by 3 points. Those who watch Styxx might also have heard that Biden has low in-party support. That's true. Antifa is rioting impart because Sanders got on his knees and took Biden's dick in his ass. The people who support the protests and the riots are generally NOT going to vote for Biden. Because in their minds, Biden is part of the problem. He's too moderate. He also can't risk chasing their votes, because he needs to chase after the Midlander and Florida vote. In effect, part of why Trump held back so many times was to avoid scaring away the swing voting populations. The closer we get to election, the more that Biden has to worry about the same problem.

Anyway, I looked at 2016 and looked specifically at the lead that Clinton had over Biden for June. What I'm looking at is momentum. As much as middle America HATED Clinton and even though the far left despised Clinton, Clinton had strong in-party support. A lot of people rallied for her. The Neo-Liberals were not well liked, but it was perceived that they were the winning team. What I found was that in June of 2016, Clinton either held near or greater support across all three states.

• Wisconsin -- +3 Biden to +1 Clinton
• Pennsylvania -- +3-5 for Clinton
• Michigan -- +2-3 for Clinton
• Florida -- +3-5 for Biden

Furthermore, I suspect some of the 2020 polls are a bit suspicious. Personally, I'm starting to ignore swing state polls that show someone ahead by 10 or more points. Biden's Pennsylvania advantage for example, is showing oldest to newest; +6, +10, and +3. The +10 is from the NY Times and is probably complete and utter bullshit. The Harper and CNBC polls are probably more accurate. But what that shows is that Biden's support is probably dropping as he gets more attention. If you look at the soft support that Trump had in 2016, which I expect is the "silent Trump supporter" type, for Pennsylvania that's 2.6. My guess is that Biden is slightly ahead in Pennsylvania. What I've estimated for actual support is this:

• Wisconsin -- +2.5 for Trump to +0.8 for Biden
• Pennsylvania -- +0.4 to +3.4 for Biden
• Michigan -- +1.7 to 2.7 for Trump
• Florida -- +2.8 to 5.8 for Biden

That looks to be about right, especially on the closer end. I think that these two are sort of neck and neck in many states. It should be noted though, that Trump's approval rating is higher in 2020 than it was in 2016. And before COVID 19 became the death of us all, Trump had hit 50% approval. And during that time, I'm pretty sure Trump was actually leading in polls. I think if Trump manages to navigate COVID 19 and bring the economy back, we may see another 2-3 points added for each of these states. That would probably give Trump an assured win in every state except Pennsylvania and Florida. I think Wisconsin and Michigan will break for Trump again.

I would also like to add--and this is hypothetical here, bordering on wishful thinking, that Biden is going to be facing a lack of in-party support. Less than Clinton. People hated or disliked Clinton, but she had a strong base. Biden has a weaker base. Getting that Mitt Romney feel with the lack of in-party enthusiasm. Biden's support back in May from the black community was 9% lower than it was for Clinton.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/05/28/does-biden-have-problem-with-african-american-voters/

Interestingly, Clinton had 88% for her, 8% for Trump, and 2% who were unsure.
In 2020, Biden has 79% for him, 11% for Trump, and 11% who are unsure. (Look, I don't know where WP got the extra 1%)

I suspect that Biden may face heavy losses in support as the campaign goes on. The DNC is already trying to set the table for the conversation of doing away with the debates. Already a few institutions are citing COVID 19 concerns. The DNC will try and avoid a debate. I think that would be catastrophic for the DNC, but not as much as letting Biden debate. Because Biden has gotten much, much worse in his time between the primaries and the general. He's gone from forgetting which state he's in to forgetting the end of his thought.

That said, I don't think they'll be able to avoid all of the debates. That one debate will be enough to destroy Biden. Hopefully, Trump will be able to disrupt their narrative of avoiding the debate.

In any case, I think Biden will probably lose 2.5-5 points due to a lack of excitement among the Democrats.

 

[Bacle]

I think the issue with polls right now is, they act like people haven't already picked who they are going to vote for.

I don't think there will be much that can sway someone from supporting Trump to Biden, or Biden to Trump. People are probably lying to pollsters again.

That's not to say this isn't a close race or that either candidate has a better chance.

Right now about all anyone can do is pray and vote.

 

[Bear Ribs]

Often it's less about who the voter picked, and about whether the voter can get off the couch to go vote for their pick. Trump was successful in large part because he's loud and different, and that can be exciting so he motivated a lot of people to get up and vote.

Unfortunately that may work against him this time as the Democrats have worked themselves into such a frenzy that their voters may be more motivated to vote against Trump rather than because they're excited by Biden.

 

[Terthna]

Often it's less about who the voter picked, and about whether the voter can get off the couch to go vote for their pick. Trump was successful in large part because he's loud and different, and that can be exciting so he motivated a lot of people to get up and vote.

Unfortunately that may work against him this time as the Democrats have worked themselves into such a frenzy that their voters may be more motivated to vote against Trump rather than because they're excited by Biden.

I'm not so sure about that. Most of those who have become "frenzied" seem more excited about rioting than voting.

 

[Bacle]

I'm not so sure about that. Most of those who have become "frenzied" seem more excited about rioting than voting.

And if they wreck or tear down statues on Federal land, they get a nice felony record, 10 years in prison, and lose the ability to vote going forward.

I think that may be part of Trump's plan right now, actually. Radical Dems who tear down statues get stuck with felonies and lose the right to vote. Thus depriving the Dems of voters over the long term, no matter what happens to him.

 

[The Original Sixth]

I think the issue with polls right now is, they act like people haven't already picked who they are going to vote for.

I don't think there will be much that can sway someone from supporting Trump to Biden, or Biden to Trump. People are probably lying to pollsters again.

That's not to say this isn't a close race or that either candidate has a better chance.

Right now about all anyone can do is pray and vote.

No, I don't think that explains the situation entirely.

First, I estimate that Trump's silent voter base is probably around 3% when it comes to polls. That looks to be the case in 2016. Now, that may have grown in 2020, but I can't expect it would be more than 5%. I don't think there are enough people distrustful of pollsters that you would have more than 5% of people lie about who they were going to vote for.

Second, I do think Trump's soft support has dropped in the past two months. The reason I see for that is because of COVID 19, Trump's poor response (among the governors themselves), the fallen economy, the protests (which undercut his black support), and the riots which made a lot of swing voters angry, among the hard supporters. It really does make sense that in swing states, Trump's support, which has nationally dropped by almost 10 points, is indeed suffering among all of this bad stuff going on.

Third, this is all happening in June. As I laid out above, Clinton was actually further ahead in 2016 than Biden is right now. And that is with lower in-party support. It's also with a much weaker candidate and against a Trump who had 3 good years and is showing a massive return to economic strength after an epidemic and nation-wide riots.

Fourth, I'm not sure what cards the DNC has left to play. They threw away their COVID-19 play because they wanted to support the protests, because they hoped that it would give people the impression that they were protesting against Trump (as opposed to a Yankee Democrat city in a Yankee state). The far left sent out Antifa in full force and the DNC hoped that Trump would overreact. He didn't and that whole strategy has fizzled out. In fact, I would argue that the DNC well overplayed the riot hand. They can't really go back and start claiming they're afraid of COVID 19 (they will and they are) because they all supported BLM rioting and looting.

Finally, it's how the DNC has acted. If they had thought the riots were working, I don't think the Seattle mayor would have let anarchists set up shop in Seattle. And if that had worked, I don't think she would have ended it after Trump laughed at her nor do I think they would have immediately have tried it at DC. Blows that should end Trump's bid for the presidency are instead doing little more than holding him back in the worst months of his entire presidency.

 

[The Original Sixth]

And if they wreck or tear down statues on Federal land, they get a nice felony record, 10 years in prison, and lose the ability to vote going forward.

I think that may be part of Trump's plan right now, actually. Radical Dems who tear down statues get stuck with felonies and lose the right to vote. Thus depriving the Dems of voters over the long term, no matter what happens to him.

Numerically, that doesn't matter. You probably aren't going to strip away enough voting rights for felons that you can meaningfully shift the vote. What Trump is doing is playing a deeper game. Most of the frontline Antifa members are rich kids in their early 20s. They're low-skill, unmarried, and believe that the peak of their fun will be in their 20s (lots of sex, parties, drugs, beer, ect.) and most of them believe (wrongly) that this all sort of goes away by your 30s, when you will have kids and a house and all that shit.

They don't want to spend what they believe will be their best years in jail, their ass being a holster for a gangbanger. The women especially, who are statistically less prone to risky behavior, are more apt to want to watch Orange is the New Black on Netflix than live that reality for the next 10 years of their lives. Basically, at least a quarter of their members will do this:

 

[LordsFire]

An interesting take. I don't entirely agree with it, but an interesting take.

I'm curious what your thoughts on Biden's advantages and disadvantages are?

 

[Cherico]

so lets say Trump wins what next?

 

[Bacle]

so lets say Trump wins what next?

Depends entirely on the House and Senate make ups.

If there is a red wave, Trump might be able to do quite a lot.

If it stays mixed control, with a D House and an R Senate, he'll be able to do EOs and judges, probably not much else.

If it's mixed with an R House and a Dem Senate, he'll basically only have EO's.

If by some freaky occurence he wins but both the House and Senate go to the Dems, he will get impeached on some frame job BS within a year I expect.

 

[The Original Sixth]

An interesting take. I don't entirely agree with it, but an interesting take.

I'm curious what your thoughts on Biden's advantages and disadvantages are?

Biden's advantages are mostly on paper, but they do exist.

• Biden is from Pennsylvania and served most of his political terms in Delaware. Those are both Midland states. If there's anyone who can help reach over to swing states, Biden is your guy. It's partly why he was chosen by Obama to be his running mate over Clinton.
• Biden is a somewhat charismatic speaker. He's really rough around the edges, but he's got a high profile. Enough that he's on his third run for the Presidency.
• Biden's reputation as a solid blue Democrat is unquestionable. There is hope that he might draw back Wisconsin and Michigan in addition to Pennsylvania and Florida.
• Biden's service under Obama also allows him to reach over towards the socialist and SJW crowds, especially because he's already declared that his running mate will be a woman.
• Since Biden is so old, it's obvious that he's going to play a sort of custodian angle. That is, the pitch to the SJW crowd is that he'll win the ticket, but probably retire in the first year or two so his VP can take over.

His disadvantages are:

• Being a longstanding member of Congress, he's supported and said things that are deeply unpopular with the far left right now. It's that very same reputation that the DNC is hoping will draw back the rogue states up north as well as Florida. It's very difficult to stand on your legacy while apologizing for it.
• Biden did not have a great track record through the debates. The moment he started losing to other people in early states that he should have taken handily, they began to panic and basically bribed everyone else in the run to pull out, allowing Biden to grow large enough to push Sanders aside.
• Obama was not that great for the economy. Generally the reason that people run the VP after the President leaves, is because the VP will not change what the President did during their term. The appeal is a return to normalcy, but this is backfiring in two different ways. First, the far left was not satisfied under Obama and Middle America grew impoverished under Obama. Second, since he's a custodian candidate, he's not really going to be around for long. Third, he's losing his marbles and it's clear to anyone when he's speaking.
• Dementia. I'm guessing that everyone in the inner Obama circle already knew that Biden was diagnosed with dementia before he left office. My guess was that when 2019 was starting to roll around, part of why there was such a long delay in his declaring was that they were unsure how fast the dementia would progress. By 2019, he must have been taking some kind of medication or otherwise they thought he would make it for another 2 years. The problem was, he was showing early signs of dementia during the debates; he struggled to keep up in almost every discussion. He had good days and bad, but he could still hold his own. After the debates, he got much, much worse. The dude is often unable to finish a sentence, let alone a thought. They literally have him reading off flash cards to keep him on track.
• Biden has been known as a gaffe machine for decades. In fact, that was what people thought was a weakness when he ran and when he served under Obama. That was okay under Obama because he was the VP. In 2019 that might have been seen as an advantage, because he was going after Trump. Problem is now that he's suffering under heavy dementia, he's a thousand times worse, saying "If you don't vote for me, you ain't black!"
• In an attempt to shield Biden from scrutiny, the DNC is already setting the table to shut down the debates. If they do, Trump is going to nail them over being cowards. I think the hope is that they'll get Biden some kind of medication that will help keep him together long enough for him to go at least one round with Trump. But they cannot send a demented old man against Trump, because he'll get annihilated.
• If Biden's dementia is fully exposed (assuming it hasn't been), it will blow apart the DNC's chances of taking the House and the Senate. It's too much of a betrayal of the public's trust. To send up a guy who has dementia makes you look like an idiot. Sending up a guy with dementia and lying about it, then getting caught, proves you're a pack of fucking liars.

On paper, Biden is a great counter to Trump. He's got the right friends and a solid reputation. He's also from the right part of the country. Unfortunately, the dementia has spoiled his advantages and greatly enhanced the negative aspects of his personality.

 

[The Original Sixth]

Depends entirely on the House and Senate make ups.

If there is a red wave, Trump might be able to do quite a lot.

If it stays mixed control, with a D House and an R Senate, he'll be able to do EOs and judges, probably not much else.

If it's mixed with an R House and a Dem Senate, he'll basically only have EO's.

If by some freaky occurence he wins but both the House and Senate go to the Dems, he will get impeached on some frame job BS within a year I expect.

Trump can actually still accomplish a lot without help from Congress. Specifically, Trump has been affecting domestic economics through his power in the executive branch via trade wars. As for who will win Congress, I think that's a toss-up. Honestly, when the year started, I expected the Republicans to lose a few seats in the House and the Congress to remain blue.

I don't think that's necessarily going to happen now. The Democrats pushed for impeachment and it fell flat on its face. The allegations were weak, the House stalled, and it was torn apart in the Senate. It was clearly a partisan effort to damage the President. The FBI investigation against his pick Flynn appears to have been ordered by Obama and Biden. The FBI probe into his campaign fell flat and wasn't even used against him in his impeachment trial.

Then during the COVID 19 panic, the Democrats had conflicting responses to the outbreak, tried to blame it on Trump, called Americans who used the term Chinese or Wuhan virus as racists, and dragged their heels on legislation to ease the shutdowns for the entire country.

They haven't done much with the riots, other than try to blame Trump and act like they're standing with the black community, but that dumb bitch Pelosi can't even fucking get George Floyd's name right when talking about the bill they made in his honor. And it's pretty clear, I think, that all of these problems were in dem cities and how far the far left will go to destroy the country if they don't get what they want.

 

[Yinko]

• Dementia. I'm guessing that everyone in the inner Obama circle already knew that Biden was diagnosed with dementia before he left office. My guess was that when 2019 was starting to roll around, part of why there was such a long delay in his declaring was that they were unsure how fast the dementia would progress. By 2019, he must have been taking some kind of medication or otherwise they thought he would make it for another 2 years. The problem was, he was showing early signs of dementia during the debates; he struggled to keep up in almost every discussion. He had good days and bad, but he could still hold his own. After the debates, he got much, much worse. The dude is often unable to finish a sentence, let alone a thought. They literally have him reading off flash cards to keep him on track.

I know some people who still deny this, saying that it's just gaffs. But then you have Biden's own ads showing his best side and still looking like he has dementia.

They had to put subtitles in their own ad. Plus, it's pretty clear to me that his health is failing, his skin it turning papery, more liverspots and other irregularities showing up as a consequence.

 

[The Original Sixth]

I know some people who still deny this, saying that it's just gaffs. But then you have Biden's own ads showing his best side and still looking like he has dementia.

They had to put subtitles in their own ad. Plus, it's pretty clear to me that his health is failing, his skin it turning papery, more liverspots and other irregularities showing up as a consequence.

He actually recently got a face lift.

More terrifying for the DNC, is that a commercial like this would have had multiple takes. And THAT was the one they went with. I don't know if the average voter will pick up on that, but it sure as hell wouldn't give me any confidence on his ability to lead this nation.

 

[Bacle]

I am going to say something that will upset people here, but it needs to be said.

The Village video retweet this morning was a bad move by Trump and/or his people.

I'm no longer confident Trump can win, or that he even wants to win anymore.

Though after all the shit he's got for trying to help the average person in the US, I couldn't blame him for wanting out. If he hadn't run he'd have made a shit ton of money in the last few years, after all.

His rallies have sounded less confident and more like preparing his base for a highly contested election that ends up in the courts.

I'm afraid Trump's 'unseen' advantage is 'unseen' because it no longer exists outsides the minds of die-hards.

 

[LifeisTiresome]

I am going to say something that will upset people here, but it needs to be said.

The Village video retweet this morning was a bad move by Trump and/or his people.

I'm no longer confident Trump can win, or that he even wants to win anymore.

Though after all the shit he's got for trying to help the average person in the US, I couldn't blame him for wanting out. If he hadn't run he'd have made a shit ton of money in the last few years, after all.

His rallies have sounded less confident and more like preparing his base for a highly contested election that ends up in the courts.

I'm afraid Trump's 'unseen' advantage is 'unseen' because it no longer exists outsides the minds of die-hards.

I´ve said it too. That people here think for sure Trump will win. We can say he wins when he actually wins. With the riots, covid and so on. He may well be fucked.

 

[The Original Sixth]

I am going to say something that will upset people here, but it needs to be said.

The Village video retweet this morning was a bad move by Trump and/or his people.

What are you talking about? What video?

I'm no longer confident Trump can win, or that he even wants to win anymore.

Though after all the shit he's got for trying to help the average person in the US, I couldn't blame him for wanting out. If he hadn't run he'd have made a shit ton of money in the last few years, after all.

His rallies have sounded less confident and more like preparing his base for a highly contested election that ends up in the courts.

You should leave the mind reading to the Betazoids.

I'm afraid Trump's 'unseen' advantage is 'unseen' because it no longer exists outsides the minds of die-hards.

Lol.

The diehards are not saying he's gonna win. In fact, most of the diehards are panicking right now because the black pills are losing their shit. For fuck's sake, DNC backed polls shit out obviously false narratives of Biden being ahead 11 points in a fucking battleground state and people are eating it up like it's fucking candy.

If someone tells you their candidate is up by 8-11 points in a battleground state, THEY ARE LYING. You would have to see a complete and fundamental collapse of the Trump administration for this to happen. It would literally have to be worse than when they aired the Grab Them By the Pussy tape. Or at the height of the Russian Probe Panic. And all that did was cause him to lose the House. And not even by a traditionally wide margin.

I haven't said that Trump's victory is assured. There are still months to go before we enter into election night. There is a lot that the Democrats can do. But they've already played some of their best pieces and they played them poorly or the moves were just not effective.

 

[Floridaman]

What are you talking about? What video?



You should leave the mind reading to the Betazoids.



Lol.

The diehards are not saying he's gonna win. In fact, most of the diehards are panicking right now because the black pills are losing their shit. For fuck's sake, DNC backed polls shit out obviously false narratives of Biden being ahead 11 points in a fucking battleground state and people are eating it up like it's fucking candy.

If someone tells you their candidate is up by 8-11 points in a battleground state, THEY ARE LYING. You would have to see a complete and fundamental collapse of the Trump administration for this to happen. It would literally have to be worse than when they aired the Grab Them By the Pussy tape. Or at the height of the Russian Probe Panic. And all that did was cause him to lose the House. And not even by a traditionally wide margin.

I haven't said that Trump's victory is assured. There are still months to go before we enter into election night. There is a lot that the Democrats can do. But they've already played some of their best pieces and they played them poorly or the moves were just not effective.

I checked, there isn’t any video retweet, that is out of the ordinary for today, so I am not sure what he is talking about.

 

[Bacle]

What are you talking about? What video?

This is the best version I can find right now.



Trump retweeted a tweet that had a better video of it, but that was deleted after people pointed out the man shouting, very clearly, 'WHITE POWER!' from his golf cart while demonstrating for Trump.

You should leave the mind reading to the Betazoids.

It's called reading his words, attitude, actions, and those of his staff.

I have tried to remain optimistic about Trump's chances and that most BS about him is media lies or manipulations.

I can no longer do that, not after this happened. I was on Twitter as it happened, and saw how the retweet was deleted pretty fast once people pointed out what had been said in the video.

I hope Trump fires whoever is running his Twitter right now, because this could be very bad for his chances.

Lol.

The diehards are not saying he's gonna win. In fact, most of the diehards are panicking right now because the black pills are losing their shit. For fuck's sake, DNC backed polls shit out obviously false narratives of Biden being ahead 11 points in a fucking battleground state and people are eating it up like it's fucking candy.

If someone tells you their candidate is up by 8-11 points in a battleground state, THEY ARE LYING. You would have to see a complete and fundamental collapse of the Trump administration for this to happen. It would literally have to be worse than when they aired the Grab Them By the Pussy tape. Or at the height of the Russian Probe Panic. And all that did was cause him to lose the House. And not even by a traditionally wide margin.

I haven't said that Trump's victory is assured. There are still months to go before we enter into election night. There is a lot that the Democrats can do. But they've already played some of their best pieces and they played them poorly or the moves were just not effective.

This isn't about polls, this is about being on Twitter and the web a lot and reading the air.

I want Trump to win. But I'm not blind and not going to just march in rhetorical lockstep because what I say isn't popular.

 

[Floridaman]

This is the best version I can find right now.



Trump retweeted a tweet that had a better video of it, but that was deleted after people pointed out the man shouting, very clearly, 'WHITE POWER!' from his golf cart while demonstrating for Trump.


It's called reading his words, attitude, actions, and those of his staff.

I have tried to remain optimistic about Trump's chances and that most BS about him is media lies or manipulations.

I can no longer do that, not after this happened. I was on Twitter as it happened, and saw how the retweet was deleted pretty fast once people pointed out what had been said in the video.

I hope Trump fires whoever is running his Twitter right now, because this could be very bad for his chances.

This isn't about polls, this is about being on Twitter and the web a lot and reading the air.

I want Trump to win. But I'm not blind and not going to just march in rhetorical lockstep because what I say isn't popular.

There isnt one on the twitter feed, and if it were true I imagine everyone would be talking about it.