More like counter-information will not be tolerated.
And that's really all the Left has going for it. Every candidate has possible strengths and weaknesses. I try to visualize it as a chess board. Pieces can come and go, be taken or freed. Each resource and piece must be spent meaningfully if you want to try and gain an advantage over your opponent.
The DNC had the following pieces:
- Race "Equality"
- Overstretched. The pity for BLM has all but evaporated.
- Gender "Equality"
- Not spent yet, but has yet to prove relevant. It didn't prove effective in 2016 though.
- Socialism/Communism
- Overstretched. Where sympathetic Commies are ordering the police to stand down and letting the people fend for themselves after decades of telling them they don't need guns because the police will save them.
- Impeachment
- Spent. The last push was the actual articles of Impeachment. As others have commented in the past, the DNC never intended to go through with the trial, merely hold it over Trump's head to imply that he was a traitor and may be removed, even if victorious. COVID eliminated some of the backlash, but also eliminated all memory of it in the public's mind.
- Treason/Russian Agent
- Spent. The idea that Trump was a Russian agent had never fully taken hold, but after 4 years of not finding anything, the average voter has pretty much tuned it out. I expect that any sort of push to make Trump sound like a tyrant or a Russian agent will be met with indiference.
- Biden's Record
- Gone. Was torn to tatters during the Democrat Primaries.
- Biden's Charisma
- Life Support. Old age and Dementia has taken its toll on Biden and the public has become aware that his health is in question and I suspect more and more are realizing he's not all there. If Biden is forced into a debate, the public will see him for what he is. If Biden does not debate or sends Kamala in his place, the public will realize he's not all there. Using the high ground of COVID will only prompt Trump to invite West to debate, effectively bringing into question who the third wheel of the election actually is.
- Gun Danger
- Gone. All new gun purchases are believed to have been from liberals. This may work within some liberal circles, but guns are effectively off the table now.
- COVID-19
- Mostly spent. The DNC tried to use the failures in the COVID response to try and paint Trump as either uncaring or incompetent. Trump however, managed to undermine that narrative with the stimulus bill he passed, as well as his insistence on Governors being responsible for their own state. And to be honest, the DNC did not have a coherent stance on COVID and were more useless than the RNC in this situation.
- Media
- Half Spent. The Media's greatest strength was their ability to gently nudge or shape the narrative in their favor. When that spell was broken on the public in 2016, the Media responded by trying to outright control the narrative. Since then they have been wrong about so many high profile subjects that the media has lost a considerable amount of credibility. Worse, competing narratives have arisen from social media, which they do not have full control over. The attempt by their tech allies to control it has been met with resistance and mistrust. And possible legal action too. The Media is still only half spent I expect, having an abundance of resources. The problem I see is that they probably lack any real means of moving the needle at this point. They can no longer shape the narrative and outright control is slipping through their fingers.
- The Kamala Move
- The Paper Tiger
- The choice for VP was interesting. There is a sort of fear/hope within the Trump side that Kamala will the new challenger, as Biden has failed. I considered this possible for a short time and it still might be possible of Biden; I think the window for a switch could last till the end of August. After August, if Biden is still the challenger, then he will be the primary name on the ticket.
- Regardless of what happens, Biden will not make it through his first term. He will be discarded. At this point, I am uncertain he will even make it to his inauguration. Normally in this situation, you'd toss a bone and let him be President for a few months, but Biden could get so much worse that he is unable to attend.
- The Kamala Move is probably an internal move; to try and get the SJWs on board with the Neo-Liberals, rather than riot with the Commies. That will draw in the hardcore SJWs I think, since they care more about moving the needle on racial and social relations than they do about Communism or Socialism. They may not like Kamala, but she would be the only acceptable candidate of the three.
- The Kamala Move however, is born of a disconnect with reality. Someone, somewhere thought that Kamala's racial mix and gender would give her the advantage in consolidating power within the party. The problem is that Kamala has a really bad record; she got knocked out early in the primaries after Tulsi Gabbard blasted her on stage. Trump isn't going to hesitate to do it himself. Nor is Kamala a good debator nor does her family history lend her to someone who can ride the "fight the south" mantra. Tough on crime, human right abuses, and literally wanted an innocent man to die for the sake of her reputation. She will sink.
- The DNC Base
- Has more or less split three ways.
- The Commies are pissed that they didn't get Bernie Sanders.
- The SJWs are pissed that Biden is the lead on the ticket, but may be placated by the thought that Kamala Harris will be appointed President. They'd have preferred her proper election, but they can delude themselves into thinking that white people are racist and need to be tricked for the "proper" outcome.
- The Neo-Liberals "won" the primaries by encouraging the less crazy ones to bow out, allowing Biden to consolidate enough of a lead to bury Sanders. The problem is that it alienated the two of the three major blocs within the DNC. The concern I expect, was always that they would have to choose. The Commies wanted Sanders and did not take as well to Warren as they might have hoped. The SJWs for the most part don't care about Kamala's record. The delay for VP pick I think was impart driven by who to choose: Warren or Harris. In the end it was Harris, which makes the SJWs happy, but utterly alienates the Commies.
- That can still work though (in theory) because the commies are in generally heavy blue regions or states, so they don't need to cater to them. The Neo-Liberals are much more comfortable with the SJWs and much more capable of establishing a deal. The Commies are going to be shoved out the door after the election.
The media is the only thing the DNC really has going for it. I don't expect they'll be a force to be reckoned with after the election. Because if they fail in 2020, they'll suffer the same crises that the DNC proper did in 2016; a loss of confidence, followed by a purity spiral, and ultimate failure in 2024. If the Media loses now, their goose is cooked. The Commies won't believe them, the Neo-Libs won't pay their bills, and the SJWs will devour them.
Trump is riding high though:
- The Economy
- Mostly spent. A shadow of its former self, the Economy was Trump's greatest argument for his re-election. His Queen. That said, the massive growth under him is still in the memory of the public. Moreover, the current strong return of jobs is also something people approve of. In a sense, by the DNC insisting that people had to wear masks and social distance, impart because they believe and impart because it's a political tool--the DNC in effect blunted the damage Trump took with an economic downturn. They tried to sharpen that impact by blaming him for COVID 19, but that never took.
- Social Media
- Trump's former Queen, half power. It was Trump's primary tool in the 2016 election and I daresay tipped the balance for him. It's also why the media has been working overtime with the DNC and tech giants to censor Trump and his crew online. They figure if they can undermine his ability to undermine their narrative, they can win. There have been several strategies that Trump has put forward to blunt this attack however:
- Switch his Press Secretary to an attractive, commanding woman who would not take their shit and in fact, goes on the offensive against the media. Since the media has to cover the press conferences, they have to interact with her and get attacked for it. During the riots, they took irreparable harm by trying to engage her.
- Trump as always, likes to provoke people and it works. With the media, Trump has baited them into being addicted to their own hate. Trump trained the media to enjoy hating on him. And people do what they enjoy, even if it's bad for them. See fatties. The media can't help but try to counter-narrative Trump on almost any subject, to the point that they'll do so even if it makes them look like fools.
- The Red Line. When Twitter started to move on Trump, Trump immediately took executive action to strip away their legal protections as a platform and not a publisher. Twitter might slap on a few more labels about Trump passing out false COVID info or try to censor a few more platforms, but they won't go after his account. At least not until they are truly desperate.
- The Wall
- Moderate Piece, but in play. A major piece for him winning the south in 2016, the accomplishment of building a wall was in doubt for a long time. Yet it is being built and having such a (literal) massive campaign promise being fulfilled has been a boon to his campaign.
- Trade Wars
- Moderate Piece, but in play. Trump's trade wars have been good for the nation. Specifically, the Mid-West and the Far West of the country. Trump already had the Far West, but the Mid-West contains blue states and swing states. The Trade Wars have secured manufacturing back in the country when people are desperately looking for better paying jobs. While his economic piece was diminished by COVID-19, the actions that Trump took against other nations economically will be well remembered in the Mid-West.
- Anti-War
- Minor Piece, but in play. One of Trump's greatest moves was pulling out of the Middle East. Obama promised the end to the endless wars and occupations. He delivered mediocre results. Trump is actually delivering. All across the world, the American footprint has grown lighter. This is seen across the country as a universal good. Even among the commies and SJWs. Even if they won't admit it.
- Health Care
- Mostly spent. Trump lost the health care debate with his own party in early 2017 and it was a major blow to him, along with the Russia Gate hoax weighing down his campaign. It cost him sympathy and support in the Mid-West, which was starting to fear that they had made a mistake in supporting him. Even if he wasn't a racist, he might have been a Russian Agent/Sympathizer and clearly didn't care about getting Healthcare passed.
- That has somewhat been blunted by COVID-19. Trump passing that stimulus bill with the Republicans gave them a new lease on life on that front. The DNC has utterly bombed; trying to pass absurd stimulus bills while radicals demand UBI.
- Military
- Minor Piece, in play. Trump has worked hard to built up the military as much as humanly possible. Which is not to say by much in 4 years, but he has made major moves. The F-15-EX passed and the US Air Force is quickly going to be replacing is dying old fighters with new Gen 4 models. People in the military industry (some of them) and the military itself are pissed (some at least), but the F-15-EX is overall, going to be good for the country. Trump also managed to order more ships (I think) and is looking to (I think) Italy to build them several new frigates. All of which will enlarge the US Navy.
- Trump also passed huge reforms for veterans, cementing his support.
- Charisma
- Still in play. For better or for worse, Trump is more or less the same Trump that we saw in 2016, but with experience in government.
Overall, the DNC is holding on by a thread and they know it. I looked at RCP's polls for WI, PA, MI, & FL. I discount anything at around 9 points or higher. Because if you think a poll with one candidate at 9 points higher than the other in a battleground state is accurate, you're a fucking moron.
The Breakdown:
- WI -- Biden +4.6
- PA -- Biden +5
- MI -- Biden +4.5
- FL -- Biden +4.3
Looking at 2016 though, I also saw the results vs the estimated lead. Here is what each state was off by in terms of polls and points:
- WI -- 7.2 points
- PA -- 2.6 points
- MI -- 3.7 point
- FL -- Off by 1.4 points.
More interestingly, look at the drop in Nov vs Aug on the actual polling itself.
- WI -- 0.8 points
- PA -- 7.6 points
- MI -- 6.9 points
- FL -- 4.2 points
Wisconsin was not seen as a state that would break away. So there was no major drop in the polls for Clinton. She was expected to win WI and there was very little polling done there. A .8 point drop in polls as we get closer to election day is not unusual. What is interesting is that the three states that were up for grab, had MAJOR shifts. Florida is less severe, but Pennsylvania and Michigan were both dropped by 7 points.
On average, for those 3 battleground states, there was a 6.23 point drop for Clinton.
What does this tell us? That CANNOT be the natural mood change of the country. Clinton had taken some hammering in the last two weeks of the election, but there is no way it shifted 6 points in two states. Or 4 points in Florida. 0.8 points in Wisconsin? Sure. Possible. But we know they were waaay off in Wisconsin. It was a surprise Battleground State.
The current, non-bullshit-polls-adjustment RCP average for all these states right now is:
- WI -- +6.5 Biden
- PA -- +6.4 Biden
- MI -- +6.7 Biden
- FL -- +5.0 Biden
If we adjust for the Autumn drop, here is what we are probably going to find:
(State -- Current Adjust // Projected Election Result)
- WI -- +0.4 Biden // +0.3 Trump
- PA -- -1.2 Biden // +1.9 Trump
- MI -- -0.2 Biden // +0.5 Trump
- FL -- +0.8 Biden // +0.4 Trump
In other words, if Trump hasn't LOST support, then he will in fact, has a slight edge in everywhere except Pennsylvania, which he has a larger edge. Biden isn't winning. In fact,
he's probably losing. I averaged out Wisconsin's point drop to match PA and MI's average. Overall, it looks as though the DNC likes to encourage people to add somewhere between 6-7 points in the polls to favor their candidate. Florida they were more realistic on, so it looks as though they only adjusted it by 4 points.
This more accurately explains the cautious nature of the Biden campaign. And this gets only worse if they're polling all voters, not likely voters.
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