Another Philippines related controversial take:
- The Philippines is doomed to be a colony of whichever nation wants it. China, Japan, Brunei (the Bolkiahs did rule parts of Luzon, including the city of Manila), Spain, Portugal, Britain, US, Netherlands.
Main reason being is that the Philippines straddles on a vital sea lane that is crucial to commercial trade on the seas. Heck, in any modern military operation, the Philippines would be high priority target. If held by the US, they can easily launch a naval blockade of China, with Japan and Taiwan's help. If held by China, they can easily attack Taiwan and Japan, making American resupply efforts more difficult. It explains why they're so gung ho on stealing all of the Spratly Islands.
Or Sea Empire.Imagine TL when somebody united most of islands till 1500,then welcomed portugals as friends.They were too weak to conqer him,but deliver best technology West had at that time.
Especially,if he becomed catholic King.
Then,take rest of the islands,take refugees from Japan,take Taiwan,Okinawa Kingdom and discover and colonize Australia till 1700.The same for Hawaii.
Take Aleutes and Northern shore of America,too,sending settlers there.
When Japan become isolationist,take Hokkaido,too - there were Ainu uprising there till 19th century.Kurile islands and Magadan region,local tribes knew that there was gold.
About 1850 you have Philippines,Taiwan,Okinawa,Australia,Hokkaido,Kuriles,Aleutes,Magadan,And part of North America.
Could use crimean war as pretext to take more Siberia.
Nobody invade you.
Could take Mapuche territories in current Chile,too.
Or,another possibility - carlists go there after loosing war in 1835,and create stronger state with better navy then OTL.
You stil could take Taiwan,Okinawa,Hokkaido,Kuriles,and Magadan.
Maybe Mexico,too.
Again,you are safe from anybody except USA.