What if France sold Indochina to Japan after WWI?

[stevep]

I did some reading on this. France did give out soft loans to Poland and Little Entente to buy armaments in French factories. But for rich France that was peanuts.
Factoid - when France could not meet orders - then Czechoslovakia provided the cannons or tanks, as Skoda was owned by Schneider.

Thought there was some investment but as you say a relatively low proportion.

In terms of Skoda due to the decline in home production and the increased demands as rearmament started Britain was actually importing armoured plating from them in the late 30's.

 

[WolfBear]

A bit separate from your question here, but what about exploring the idea of France selling French Indochina to the US after the end of World War I instead? I mean, the US already has the Philippines right next door, so the US shouldn't have too many problems administering French Indochina.

As a side note, if Japan acquires French Indochina after the end of WWI, then this could have important effects later on in WWII since AFAIK it was the Japanese occupation of French Indochina in 1940-1941 that caused the US to heavily sanction Japan. Here, Japan's control of French Indochina won't be an issue, which would mean a less tense Japan-US relationship in the run-up to Pearl Harbor--and which of course might prevent Pearl Harbor itself from ever occurring.

 

[WolfBear]

Does Japan even have enough money to purchase French Indochina from the French though? Even if they have the money to purchase French Indochina, it might become more of a money sink for them than Korea. Keep in mind that 1919 is also the year that the Korean independence movement becomes a prominent anti-Japanese imperialist movement.

Realistically, could Japan turn French Indochina into a set of three separate protectorates, each with puppet rulers that answer to the Japanese Emperor? IOTL, this was actually done, albeit in the closing stages of WWII. If Japan does acquire French Indochina after WWI, they would have the time in the world to set up puppet regimes that would do what the Japanese ordered. Kinda like Manchukuo, but earlier.

One country who very likely would have enough money to purchase French Indochina after WWI would be the US. Heck, the US could even do this as a part of a debt/loan forgiveness package or something. But what exactly would actually give the US the desire to want French Indochina during this time?

 

[Knowledgeispower]

One country who very likely would have enough money to purchase French Indochina after WWI would be the US. Heck, the US could even do this as a part of a debt/loan forgiveness package or something. But what exactly would actually give the US the desire to want French Indochina during this time?

If Japan wants it they have a geopolitical reason to want them not to have it

 

[WolfBear]

If Japan wants it they have a geopolitical reason to want them not to have it

Would Japan really care all that much if the US got it, though? Japan was quite content to let the US have the Philippines in 1898, for instance.

 

[Chiron]

Where are you people getting France paying for expansion of Polish and Czech defence industries?
Poland would had been delighted if France did so. Are you talking about the Rambouillet loan?
That money was to be mostly used to buy stuff in France, not build factories in Poland. The loan was for 2B Francs, of which de facto 1B to be spent in France. The terms were such that only part of that loan was used, especially the part involving expansion of Polish industry.
As to Czech defence industry - owned in large part by Schneider, BTW - AFAIK it was doing very nicely without any French investment ...
Do not forget that France hugely fucked up its defence industry with nationalisations. Hence enormous problems with manufacturing for the rearming army post '36. Plus various forms of communist sabotage for various reasons.
And the 12 month military service was a killer too.
There are many reasons for which the French army - in spite of being mobilised in early September '39 - nine months later was undertrained, underarmed, underequipped.

Case Red: The Collapse of France by Robert Forzyck.

I have the Kindle version so it's a location number 431. Details France's aid to Poland including arms and munitions, technical aid, plus loans. Mostly failed attempt to court Belgium after giving them loans and help. Next page details loans and technical aid to build up the Skoda Works. Then a failed wooing of Yugoslavia and Romania.

Basically time and effort wasted. Dwarfed by the spending on its navy, but every bit counted.

 

[WolfBear]

Case Red: The Collapse of France by Robert Forzyck.

I have the Kindle version so it's a location number 431. Details France's aid to Poland including arms and munitions, technical aid, plus loans. Mostly failed attempt to court Belgium after giving them loans and help. Next page details loans and technical aid to build up the Skoda Works. Then a failed wooing of Yugoslavia and Romania.

Basically time and effort wasted. Dwarfed by the spending on its navy, but every bit counted.

So, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Romania, Yugoslavia, and Belgium were the only countries that France invested in (at least in a big/major way) in the interwar era?

 

[raharris1973]

A bit separate from your question here, but what about exploring the idea of France selling French Indochina to the US after the end of World War I instead? I mean, the US already has the Philippines right next door, so the US shouldn't have too many problems administering French Indochina.

The problem with the above...

But what exactly would actually give the US the desire to want French Indochina during this time?

Is that I can't find a satisfactory answer to the question you raise here...

One country who very likely would have enough money to purchase French Indochina after WWI would be the US. Heck, the US could even do this as a part of a debt/loan forgiveness package or something.

...even though this point is true.

If Japan wants it they have a geopolitical reason to want them not to have it

Would Japan really care all that much if the US got it, though? Japan was quite content to let the US have the Philippines in 1898, for instance.

WolfBear, I think you understood Knowledgeispower's point backwards. I think he is saying that the thing that would motivate America to want Indochina, would be to deny it to Japan.

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But America won't want Indochina. Even if Japan is bidding to purchase it. America in the interwar era is eager to focus back home and return to normalcy. In the early 1920s, it has the money to do fund the purchase, but lacks the interest, and is doing quite enough tropical adventuring in banana wars and occupations in Nicaragua, Haiti, Cuba, and the Dominican Republic. In the 1930s, it has turned its back on even those interventions and lacks the spare cash with the Depression and all.

 

[WolfBear]

The problem with the above...




Is that I can't find a satisfactory answer to the question you raise here...



...even though this point is true.




WolfBear, I think you understood Knowledgeispower's point backwards. I think he is saying that the thing that would motivate America to want Indochina, would be to deny it to Japan.

------

But America won't want Indochina. Even if Japan is bidding to purchase it. America in the interwar era is eager to focus back home and return to normalcy. In the early 1920s, it has the money to do fund the purchase, but lacks the interest, and is doing quite enough tropical adventuring in banana wars and occupations in Nicaragua, Haiti, Cuba, and the Dominican Republic. In the 1930s, it has turned its back on even those interventions and lacks the spare cash with the Depression and all.

I suppose that if the US REALLY wants to deny French Indochina to Japan, it could purchase them itself and then immediately give them a roadmap to independence or something. Seems like a good compromise. But there would also be a US-Indochinese defensive alliance to protect themselves from any future Japanese attack on them.

 

[raharris1973]

I suppose that if the US REALLY wants to deny French Indochina to Japan, it could purchase them itself and then immediately give them a roadmap to independence or something. Seems like a good compromise. But there would also be a US-Indochinese defensive alliance to protect themselves from any future Japanese attack on them.

The US would have to care way more and be able to convince its population and reps why it should care more in order to do something like this. It would be...about as weird as my original idea for this thread

 

[WolfBear]

The US would have to care way more and be able to convince its population and reps why it should care more in order to do something like this. It would be...about as weird as my original idea for this thread

Yeah, makes sense.

Anyway, what about having the US purchase some Caribbean islands and/or French Guiana from France instead?

Also, somewhat off-topic, but what about having the US purchase the Dutch West Indies in the event of a German occupation of the Netherlands during WWI?