What If the CIA Never Existed?

[DarthOne]

Without thr CIA the cold War would have ended differently

 

[TheRejectionist]

Without thr CIA the cold War would have ended differently

You have no basis for saying this.

The US would most likely have been worse off by then as well.

How? No crack or other drugs epidemic? No heavy migration of my fellow Latinos because they wouldn't have propped up dictatorships, which also resulted in the guerrillas that attempted to overthrow them which lead to refugees, human trafficking and the drug trade?

The CIA is the reason we were invested in long range deep recon aircraft like rhe U2 and SR71.
thw CIA is responsible for a lot of aspects.

I am pretty sure the SR71 has been considered overrated if not considered outright junk by many in the US military itself.

Without the CIA, we would have most likely had a commie Italy...

You could argue that...if the margin of the 1948 election was actual close call, but there was 48% per cent for Christian Democrats (one single party mind you not counting their allies in the PLI, PRI, others and the Italian Social Movement) and 31% of the Democratic Front (a coalition of the leftist parties which only a part of it was the Italian Communist Party and they would soon split) so "NO CIA EQUALS COMMIE ITALY" is fallacious.
Probably the percentages would be different.

*looks at DPRK and China and Cuba*
Ah yes, look how they no longer exist

You could argue they follow a brand of socialism yes, but two out of three haven't been credible threat to anyone since the Wall fell and I would argue even during the Cold War they were at best annoying. China on the other hand as @King Arts put it is at best aesthetically communist but that's about it and let's not forget that Tricky Dick and that mummified parasite of Kissinger they still exist, your own country's leaders and politicos changed the legitimacy of the Republic of China for a subversive realpolitik, which also we are paying the consequences today just like the American interventions in LATAM.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Why is everyone in this Alternative Timeline thread so mean and antagonistic to each other in discussion like its political?

It's just a fun Alternate History hypothetical...

 

[TheRejectionist]

Europeans

@Abhorsen as long as you don't get the narc types...but it STILL depends. I have know one too many Latinos that came here just to cause problems they did in their homelands...and met also one Cuban (who surprise surprise, didn't grew in Cuba OR has any relative left there as far as I know) who was explicitly and unapolageticly a Castrist and "affably" so.
I am Latino ,both because I am a Brazilian and Spanish-descendant and Spanish-speaking ( third acquired language though) and even I am critical of my fellow Brazilians and fellow neighborly "cousins" , both those who become too "gringo" AND those who seems they can't let up the fucking mentality of the homeland (excessive male and female promiscuity being among them).
Also, as someone who is also European, Latinos in many cases are better than PROGRESSIVE, LIBERAL OR CENTRIST Europeans, but otherwise Latino and Europeans who are ethically, morally and law-abiding souls are not different.

But progressive Euros... well... we do share the same opinion on that, as someone who considers himself somewhat socially nationalconservative.

 

[Husky_Khan]

CIA wasn't very effective early in the Cold War, so the Soviet Union would be even more effective in the early years. Keep in mind they were able to reliably secure Eastern Europe (Romania and Czechoslovakia) despite the CIA's middling efforts and were completely flatfooted by both North Korean aggression and Chinese aggression in the Korean War. They also weren't able to prevent infiltration of the State Department and Manhattan Project and so on.

They did advance US Intelligence in cryptanalysis so that expertise just not being advanced would have knock on effects later as cryptography and signals intelligence and tangible technical things like that were just as valuable as any Bond style Human Intelligence type of stories or events that arose from the CIA efforts. Human Intelligence wise, the CIA became key for specialists (ie language or regional or cultural specialists etc) and those working in an advistory capacity were rather invaluable assets. So that would be diffused to wherever as well.

Special Operations and paramilitary operations I suppose would be shifted to the Defense Department so that's not as big a deal. And I guess foreign intelligence would be parceled out to a bunch of random places like the War/Defense Department, the FBI and other National Police/Law Enforcement Organizations and maybe the State Department setting up something more neutered.

I think that Communist or Red aligned parties in Europe would likely be more successful and Soviet backed intelligence operations more successful in Eastern Europe (and elsewhere) but I'm not sure if that would translate to something particularly tangible. Like bereft of cash and bribes and other assets, would the Red aligned parties in Italy and Greece and France or whatever gain more power early in the Cold War?

Iran would shift to Mossadeq and probably fall to Islamists soonafter since it was a far weaker government than the Shah's rule would've been and the Islamists were able to dumpster them in spite of all of the monies and military gear invested in them.

Guatemala would've adopted a Soviet-aligned government, it'd probably be mild at first but it'd probably spread through Central America and the Caribbean. Socialism is far more lucrative a sell than American capitalism, especially with Authoritarian style governments. And that'd go through Cuba (obviously) and the Central American Crisis of the 70's could happen earlier as the various strongmen get knocked off without American support in El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and probably Latin American countries too though I'm not as knowledgeable on it off the top of my head.

French Indochina would be lost more quickly than OTL. Indonesia and Philippines would probably be okay though. The Congo would be under Lumumba and he was Soviet aligned so there could be knock on effects there as most of the post-colonial governments were more aligned towards Socialism and the Soviet Union. Decolonization might come more rapidly to holdouts like the Portuguese colonies of Angola and Mozambique and maybe the regimes in Rhodesia and South Africa would fall quicker.

 

[Jormungandr]

On the one hand, the CIA is a critical component of US defence. Love 'em or hate 'em (and I agree with the hate 'em camp), they're vital. They need to be reformed/cleaned out, yeah, but unlike the FBI they're actually needed.

On the other hand... it's the CIA. I don't need to summarize all the stupid shit they've done, including the whole "drugs thing".

They're a double-edged sword that randomly cuts its wielder.

 

[DarthOne]

On the one hand, the CIA is a critical component of US defence. Love 'em or hate 'em (and I agree with the hate 'em camp), they're vital. They need to be reformed/cleaned out, yeah, but unlike the FBI they're actually needed.

On the other hand... it's the CIA. I don't need to summarize all the stupid shit they've done, including the whole "drugs thing".

They're a double-edged sword that randomly cuts its wielder.

No. We don't get rid of them, they'll just do the same shit again.

 

[TheRejectionist]

CIA wasn't very effective early in the Cold War, so the Soviet Union would be even more effective in the early years. Keep in mind they were able to reliably secure Eastern Europe (Romania and Czechoslovakia) despite the CIA's middling efforts and were completely flatfooted by both North Korean aggression and Chinese aggression in the Korean War. They also weren't able to prevent infiltration of the State Department and Manhattan Project and so on.

I seem to recall that said infiltrations happened before the end of WW2 when the USA and USSR were allies and before there was even a CIA.

They did advance US Intelligence in cryptanalysis so that expertise just not being advanced would have knock on effects later as cryptography and signals intelligence and tangible technical things like that were just as valuable as any Bond style Human Intelligence type of stories or events that arose from the CIA efforts. Human Intelligence wise, the CIA became key for specialists (ie language or regional or cultural specialists etc) and those working in an advistory capacity were rather invaluable assets. So that would be diffused to wherever as well.

Special Operations and paramilitary operations I suppose would be shifted to the Defense Department so that's not as big a deal. And I guess foreign intelligence would be parceled out to a bunch of random places like the War/Defense Department, the FBI and other National Police/Law Enforcement Organizations and maybe the State Department setting up something more neutered.

I think that Communist or Red aligned parties in Europe would likely be more successful and Soviet backed intelligence operations more successful in Eastern Europe (and elsewhere) but I'm not sure if that would translate to something particularly tangible. Like bereft of cash and bribes and other assets, would the Red aligned parties in Italy and Greece and France or whatever gain more power early in the Cold War?

Financing the commies would be more easier but as you said it would difficult to say if it was tangible. In Italy the ICP made significant gains when Enrico Berlinguer opened up to have a constitutional, open discourse with the Christian Democrats of Aldo Moro.

Iran would shift to Mossadeq and probably fall to Islamists soonafter since it was a far weaker government than the Shah's rule would've been and the Islamists were able to dumpster them in spite of all of the monies and military gear invested in them.

Ehhhhhhhh... that's a long stretch of saying it would gone theocratic sooner. To this day Iranian society has one thing in common with Israeli society : you enter a room with two people and you might have seven different opinions that only share the common denominator of "we want to change things", not to mention Khomeini or fellow travellers wouldn't have the clout, the legitimacy or the savor fair to make the same actions they pulled in 1979.

Guatemala would've adopted a Soviet-aligned government, it'd probably be mild at first but it'd probably spread through Central America and the Caribbean. Socialism is far more lucrative a sell than American capitalism, especially with Authoritarian style governments. And that'd go through Cuba (obviously) and the Central American Crisis of the 70's could happen earlier as the various strongmen get knocked off without American support in El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and probably Latin American countries too though I'm not as knowledgeable on it off the top of my head.

Guatemala for its own sake didn't want to align with the USSR, unless the civilian government wouldn't be overthrown and they thought the Commies were the only tangible option left out of desperation since they certainly can't ask their neighbors or the allies of the United States (unless France is pissed off earlier than the Algerian War).

French Indochina would be lost more quickly than OTL. Indonesia and Philippines would probably be okay though. The Congo would be under Lumumba and he was Soviet aligned so there could be knock on effects there as most of the post-colonial governments were more aligned towards Socialism and the Soviet Union. Decolonization might come more rapidly to holdouts like the Portuguese colonies of Angola and Mozambique and maybe the regimes in Rhodesia and South Africa would fall quicker.

Indochina was partially lost first with the battle Die Ben Phu, then when the American government overthrew the government of his own puppet because they thought it would make the situation better it was definitely lost.

 

[Husky_Khan]

I seem to recall that said infiltrations happened before the end of WW2 when the USA and USSR were allies and before there was even a CIA.

Well like I said the early Cold War history is mostly of CIA failures and money dumps. If anything changes it would be the USSR achieving its goals earlier then they did.

Ehhhhhhhh... that's a long stretch of saying it would gone theocratic sooner. To this day Iranian society has one thing in common with Israeli society : you enter a room with two people and you might have seven different opinions that only share the common denominator of "we want to change things", not to mention Khomeini or fellow travellers wouldn't have the clout, the legitimacy or the savor fair to make the same actions they pulled in 1979.

The thing is I don't think the Mossadeq Government would be very powerful. As you state it woudl be surprisingly divided and weakened without the Western support with the foreign investments into Iran's oil industry and therefore the knock on effects elsewhere. Pahlavi might've not done much to win popularity domestically but his government, with foreign backing, was able to suppress the Islamists in 1964 and I don't think the Mossadeq government would've been strong enough to resist the Shia Fadaykin or whatever they called themselves at the time, at least not without significant foreign backing which would almost certainly come from the Soviet bloc.

Guatemala for its own sake didn't want to align with the USSR, unless the civilian government wouldn't be overthrown and they thought the Commies were the only tangible option left out of desperation since they certainly can't ask their neighbors or the allies of the United States (unless France is pissed off earlier than the Algerian War).

I just feel that it'd be broadly similar to what happened in Cuba. There were legitimate attempts by the US Government and even the CIA to convince Castro to remain aligned with the West and adopt some peaceful democracy instead of Strongman stuff but that didn't work out obviously and I'm sure the CIA wasn't blameless in that fallout either if there was any. But while there is a third way bloc of Non-Aligned Nations, said bloc typically seemed to nod towards the Soviet-bloc oftentimes or just Socialist-Left policies and ideologies in general.

Indochina was partially lost first with the battle Die Ben Phu, then when the American government overthrew the government of his own puppet because they thought it would make the situation better it was definitely lost.

Well the reason I think Indochina would fall sooner is due to the lack of the CIA presence to prepare the area for an American or Western backed South Vietnamese government with their intelligence on the locals and network of people that they could work with and whatnot. I mean maybe the Pentagon could've done stuff on their own for the most part but I doubt it. The CIA basically backed an insurgency in Laos for example that more or less tied up NVA and Pathet Lao forces for much of the length of the US time in the Vietnam War as one example.

The French ironically might've had more influence in South Vietnam then the Americans did, like they did with the Binh Xuyen Cartel which actually made a play for power against the US backed Diem Government back in the late 50's.

 

[Jormungandr]

No. We don't get rid of them, they'll just do the same shit again.

The FBI or the CIA?

 

[DarthOne]

The FBI or the CIA?

Yes

 

[filipina84]

Maybe you should open a thread on it.

Agree on this.