Alternate History What If The Saxons and Germanic Paganism Won the Saxon Wars?

[KilroywasNOTHere]

The Saxon Wars were the campaigns and insurrections of the thirty-three years from 772, when Charlemagne first entered Saxony with the intent to conquer, to 804, when the last rebellion of tribesmen was defeated. In all, 18 campaigns were fought, primarily in what is now northern Germany. They resulted in the incorporation of Saxony into the Frankish realm and their forcible conversion from Germanic paganism to Christianity

In the end the irminsul was burned (apparently there is question about if they thought it was a manifestation of the world tree) and those who did not convert to Christianity were either killed or deported (,Holocaust it seems are as old as time)

So my question is what would have happened if the Saxons won the Saxon wars? Charlemagne dies in the heat of battle. The Irminsul/World Tree stays intact and Widukind is able to drive out the Frankish and unite all of local pagan tribes under his banner. How does this change history going forward. Does it really change it or does it simply prolong the inevitable?

Fantasy bonus round: what if the mythological figures of Germanic Paganism were real and some fought with Saxons against the Franks? How would this change things if at all?

 

[Skallagrim]

If Charlemagne himself dies, and in the chaos the Frankish forces end up slaughtered, that's a pretty great upset to the Frankish realm -- and a major triumph for Widukind. And Widukind is already tied to the Danes through marriage, and has an alliance there. The Frankish-held regions in what's the Eastern Netherlands in modern times were populated by Saxons, and would presumably be lost to the Franks and gained by Widukind. Many Frisians would also come under Saxon overlordship. The Saxons also had ties with the Thuringians, who would also enter the Saxon-led league.

I've quickly outlined the region that would be under Pagan German control:

(Obviously a map depicting a later age, but it was easy to show the rough region in question here.)

 

[KilroywasNOTHere]

If Charlemagne himself dies, and in the chaos the Frankish forces end up slaughtered, that's a pretty great upset to the Frankish realm -- and a major triumph for Widukind. And Widukind is already tied to the Danes through marriage, and has an alliance there. The Frankish-held regions in what's the Eastern Netherlands in modern times were populated by Saxons, and would presumably be lost to the Franks and gained by Widukind. Many Frisians would also come under Saxon overlordship. The Saxons also had ties with the Thuringians, who would also enter the Saxon-led league.

I've quickly outlined the region that would be under Pagan German control:

(Obviously a map depicting a later age, but it was easy to show the rough region in question here.)

How do you think that'd affect the greater scope of things from what I've read Charlemagne essentially led the charge In converting Pagan Europe to catholicism. Would a Saxon victory change the course of the middle ages?

 

[stevep]

How do you think that'd affect the greater scope of things from what I've read Charlemagne essentially led the charge In converting Pagan Europe to catholicism. Would a Saxon victory change the course of the middle ages?

I can't see paganism surviving as monotheistic religions are significantly more ruthless and organised and also tend to appeal to ruling elites, which makes it more likely that rulers would be tempted by them. Since they tend to be centralised systems which place a very high importance on centralised control rather than the more decentralized nature of the older tribal states.

However such a win could put back their destruction for quite a while and would cause serious complications for the expansion of organised Christian states north of the Alps and east of the Frankish core. Coupled with continued Muslim pressure and at the time the ERE still powerful in the east it could end up with more of eastern and possibly even central and northern Europe ending up Orthodox.

OTL I did read that a lot of the conversions of much of the region was helped by clerics from England, especially Northumbria who felt a need to 'aid/civilize' their pagan kin but if the region has suffered heavily from Charlemagne's rampages before he's defeated then their likely to face a much less friendly welcome.

 

[KilroywasNOTHere]

I can't see paganism surviving as monotheistic religions are significantly more ruthless and organised and also tend to appeal to ruling elites, which makes it more likely that rulers would be tempted by them. Since they tend to be centralised systems which place a very high importance on centralised control rather than the more decentralized nature of the older tribal states.

However such a win could put back their destruction for quite a while and would cause serious complications for the expansion of organised Christian states north of the Alps and east of the Frankish core. Coupled with continued Muslim pressure and at the time the ERE still powerful in the east it could end up with more of eastern and possibly even central and northern Europe ending up Orthodox.

OTL I did read that a lot of the conversions of much of the region was helped by clerics from England, especially Northumbria who felt a need to 'aid/civilize' their pagan kin but if the region has suffered heavily from Charlemagne's rampages before he's defeated then their likely to face a much less friendly welcome.

How powerful and influential is the Orthodox church at this point and time? Admittedly my only exposure to them is through CK2 where they really have no teeth unless you mend the Great Schism.

 

[stevep]

How powerful and influential is the Orthodox church at this point and time? Admittedly my only exposure to them is through CK2 where they really have no teeth unless you mend the Great Schism.

Well, especially if Charlemagne's empire collapses after his defeat and death the ERE is by some way the largest, richest and most powerful state in Europe. It might also mean that its influence, assuming you get the OTL 9th C revival, is going to increase further and with no Charlemagne to form the basis of what becomes the HRE who else is the Papacy going to turn to to protect it against groups such as the Lombard's. In TTL it could be that the influence of the Catholic church is considerably reduced as its too dependent on the empire.

Furthermore OTL of course the eastern arm of the Viking age saw the Rus from Sweden found states along the Dnieper, most noticeably at Kiev and they came into conflict and then rough alliance with the ERE, adopting its religion and supplying many troops. In TTL if Catholicism is both less influential and less powerful militarily as well then Orthodixism could spread westwards from the Rus states into Sweden and elsewhere in the Baltic areas and Scandinavia.

 

[Skallagrim]

How do you think that'd affect the greater scope of things from what I've read Charlemagne essentially led the charge In converting Pagan Europe to catholicism. Would a Saxon victory change the course of the middle ages?

The absence of Charlemagne certainly changes things. Chances are, this scenario prevents his coronation by the Pope. If the Frankish realm splis apart after Charlemagne's death (which is not unlikely at all), the Western Imperial idea has just been aborted. That dramatically changes the course of Western culture.

It's also good news for the Slavs and Balts, who will likely be pushed East far less comprehensively by the Germans.

Paganism gets a reprieve, but as has been noted: probably a temporary one. I'd argue that defeating Charlemagne is going to be the defining "national" moment, so eager conversion to Christianity in the short(er) term is unlikely. You'd see the Saxon realm closely tied to Scandinavia, which would also be Pagan at this time. They'd be foreign and hostile to the Christian realms, so in this ATL, I could see the whole Viking period being much more of "Pagan scourge upon the Christians" kind of thing.

Some alt-Knut figure might even be able to unite all the Germanic Pagans realms under his sole rule, which would be a great boon.

But would it be enough? I don't think so. The way to avoid gradual conversion is dedicated hostility to the spread of Christianity (e.g. always kill missionaries and send their heads back as a warning). This automatically creates the side-effect that the Christians hate you, and will want to stamp out your "heathen cult".

It's highly probable that the Slavs will be converted as in OTL. They'll probably all go Orthodox, though. The Balts, too -- it'll be Orthodox Slavic Christians from the South and East fighting them, instead of also having Catholic German Christians coming from the West. But the ultimate outcome is the same. (In AH circles, the idea is occasionally raised of some pan-pagan alliance against the Christians, i.e. Saxons teaming up with Balts and Fins, but that's a silly pipe-dream. The idea of "paganism" as a shared identity is a thoroughly modern concept.)

So the result is: a Pagan "wedge" covering a large part of the Scandinavian peninsula, and Denmark, and the greater Saxon region. This is vulnerable to attacks from all sides. And as noted: it would attract such attacks. I expect "Crusades" to be far more of a Northern affair than in OTL.

Even if the Catholic West is irrepairably weakened and far more fractured into smaller states than in OTL (with the Franish realm being split permanently, and Germany never forming)... they're not likely to be weak forever.


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Redbad killing Charles Martel, and the Frankish realm collapsing into a violent, highly destructive civil war then, would possibly give the Germanic pagans somewhat better odds. It keeps the whole Frisian region (which covers most of the Low Countries at the time) conveniently Pagan, and prevents the Franks from militarily crushing the Saxons later on. You'd need then have the Saxons emulate Redbad, with some alt-Widukind coming to power and leading the pagan Saxon struggle against Christian encroachment.

Ideally, have the families of Redbad and alt-Widukind become united through marriage, and form further bonds with the Scandinavians. With the Franks defeated earlier, the Christian missionaries kept out, and the cultural identity based on the "Men of the North" having gloriously defeated the Christian Franks... Well. They'd be in a stronger position, and they'd have more time to set up a common cause. In this scenario, the Frankish realm really does end up only covering the region of France, and all of (Northern) "Germany" (including the Low Countries) stays pagan, as does Scandinavia.

This would be sufficiently early for this pagan Germanic realm to be well-defended against the Franks, and would leave the pagan Germans relatively free to carry out their very own Ostsiedlung. By the time the Christian realms really get into a position to come a-crusading, the pagan realm (particularly if it's fairly united) should be pretty big and pretty populous. Possibly able to hold its ground...

 

[KilroywasNOTHere]

The absence of Charlemagne certainly changes things. Chances are, this scenario prevents his coronation by the Pope. If the Frankish realm splis apart after Charlemagne's death (which is not unlikely at all), the Western Imperial idea has just been aborted. That dramatically changes the course of Western culture.

It's also good news for the Slavs and Balts, who will likely be pushed East far less comprehensively by the Germans.

Paganism gets a reprieve, but as has been noted: probably a temporary one. I'd argue that defeating Charlemagne is going to be the defining "national" moment, so eager conversion to Christianity in the short(er) term is unlikely. You'd see the Saxon realm closely tied to Scandinavia, which would also be Pagan at this time. They'd be foreign and hostile to the Christian realms, so in this ATL, I could see the whole Viking period being much more of "Pagan scourge upon the Christians" kind of thing.

Some alt-Knut figure might even be able to unite all the Germanic Pagans realms under his sole rule, which would be a great boon.

But would it be enough? I don't think so. The way to avoid gradual conversion is dedicated hostility to the spread of Christianity (e.g. always kill missionaries and send their heads back as a warning). This automatically creates the side-effect that the Christians hate you, and will want to stamp out your "heathen cult".

It's highly probable that the Slavs will be converted as in OTL. They'll probably all go Orthodox, though. The Balts, too -- it'll be Orthodox Slavic Christians from the South and East fighting them, instead of also having Catholic German Christians coming from the West. But the ultimate outcome is the same. (In AH circles, the idea is occasionally raised of some pan-pagan alliance against the Christians, i.e. Saxons teaming up with Balts and Fins, but that's a silly pipe-dream. The idea of "paganism" as a shared identity is a thoroughly modern concept.)

So the result is: a Pagan "wedge" covering a large part of the Scandinavian peninsula, and Denmark, and the greater Saxon region. This is vulnerable to attacks from all sides. And as noted: it would attract such attacks. I expect "Crusades" to be far more of a Northern affair than in OTL.

Even if the Catholic West is irrepairably weakened and far more fractured into smaller states than in OTL (with the Franish realm being split permanently, and Germany never forming)... they're not likely to be weak forever.


--------------------------------------------------------


Redbad killing Charles Martel, and the Frankish realm collapsing into a violent, highly destructive civil war then, would possibly give the Germanic pagans somewhat better odds. It keeps the whole Frisian region (which covers most of the Low Countries at the time) conveniently Pagan, and prevents the Franks from militarily crushing the Saxons later on. You'd need then have the Saxons emulate Redbad, with some alt-Widukind coming to power and leading the pagan Saxon struggle against Christian encroachment.

Ideally, have the families of Redbad and alt-Widukind become united through marriage, and form further borns with the Sacandinavians. With the Franks defeated earlier, the Christian missionaries kept out, and the cultural identity based on the "Men of the North" having gloriously defeated the Christian Franks... Well. They'd be in a stronger position, and they'd have more time to set up a common cause. In this scenario, the Frankish realm really does only end up covering the region of France, and all of (Northern) "Germany" (including the Low Countries) stays pagan, as does Scandinavia.

This would be sufficiently early for this pagan Germanic realm to be well-defended against the Franks, and would leave the pagan Germans relatively free to carry out their very own Ostsiedlung. By the time the Christian realms rally get into a position to come a-crusading, the pagan realm (particularly if it's pretty united) should be pretty big and pretty populous. Possibly able to hold its ground...

What about @stevep 's comments regarding the Orthodox Church could that cause some sort of chain reaction or were the two sects of Christianity not really different enough at the time to make a difference. Would the nations of Islam see an opportunity where the Catholics failed or would the Saxon and their Scandinavian cousin's find themselves pretty isolated from the rest of the world? I don't really see Norse/Saxon paganism surviving short of a major reformation and codification and I really don't see that happening given how the myths are told and the general pessimism of it. BUT is it possible that the spirit of the warrior culture might remained more intact with this scenario? Like something more akin to nationalism or in this case a culturism?

 

[ATP]

The absence of Charlemagne certainly changes things. Chances are, this scenario prevents his coronation by the Pope. If the Frankish realm splis apart after Charlemagne's death (which is not unlikely at all), the Western Imperial idea has just been aborted. That dramatically changes the course of Western culture.

It's also good news for the Slavs and Balts, who will likely be pushed East far less comprehensively by the Germans.

Paganism gets a reprieve, but as has been noted: probably a temporary one. I'd argue that defeating Charlemagne is going to be the defining "national" moment, so eager conversion to Christianity in the short(er) term is unlikely. You'd see the Saxon realm closely tied to Scandinavia, which would also be Pagan at this time. They'd be foreign and hostile to the Christian realms, so in this ATL, I could see the whole Viking period being much more of "Pagan scourge upon the Christians" kind of thing.

Some alt-Knut figure might even be able to unite all the Germanic Pagans realms under his sole rule, which would be a great boon.

But would it be enough? I don't think so. The way to avoid gradual conversion is dedicated hostility to the spread of Christianity (e.g. always kill missionaries and send their heads back as a warning). This automatically creates the side-effect that the Christians hate you, and will want to stamp out your "heathen cult".

It's highly probable that the Slavs will be converted as in OTL. They'll probably all go Orthodox, though. The Balts, too -- it'll be Orthodox Slavic Christians from the South and East fighting them, instead of also having Catholic German Christians coming from the West. But the ultimate outcome is the same. (In AH circles, the idea is occasionally raised of some pan-pagan alliance against the Christians, i.e. Saxons teaming up with Balts and Fins, but that's a silly pipe-dream. The idea of "paganism" as a shared identity is a thoroughly modern concept.)

So the result is: a Pagan "wedge" covering a large part of the Scandinavian peninsula, and Denmark, and the greater Saxon region. This is vulnerable to attacks from all sides. And as noted: it would attract such attacks. I expect "Crusades" to be far more of a Northern affair than in OTL.

Even if the Catholic West is irrepairably weakened and far more fractured into smaller states than in OTL (with the Franish realm being split permanently, and Germany never forming)... they're not likely to be weak forever.


--------------------------------------------------------


Redbad killing Charles Martel, and the Frankish realm collapsing into a violent, highly destructive civil war then, would possibly give the Germanic pagans somewhat better odds. It keeps the whole Frisian region (which covers most of the Low Countries at the time) conveniently Pagan, and prevents the Franks from militarily crushing the Saxons later on. You'd need then have the Saxons emulate Redbad, with some alt-Widukind coming to power and leading the pagan Saxon struggle against Christian encroachment.

Ideally, have the families of Redbad and alt-Widukind become united through marriage, and form further bonds with the Scandinavians. With the Franks defeated earlier, the Christian missionaries kept out, and the cultural identity based on the "Men of the North" having gloriously defeated the Christian Franks... Well. They'd be in a stronger position, and they'd have more time to set up a common cause. In this scenario, the Frankish realm really does end up only covering the region of France, and all of (Northern) "Germany" (including the Low Countries) stays pagan, as does Scandinavia.

This would be sufficiently early for this pagan Germanic realm to be well-defended against the Franks, and would leave the pagan Germans relatively free to carry out their very own Ostsiedlung. By the time the Christian realms really get into a position to come a-crusading, the pagan realm (particularly if it's fairly united) should be pretty big and pretty populous. Possibly able to hold its ground...

I think,that we still would have Great Moravia christianed by catholics - becouse they would fight germans here,too.
Hungarians in this scenario could never come and destroy them,becouse in OTL german envoys asked them for that.
Here,pagan germans could not send envoys through ERE.
So,big catholic Great Moravia vs.pagan germans and catholic Western Europe.I like this TL,even if there would be no Poland here.