WI: The United States annexes Mexico, 1848

[gral]

One thing of note: without the various wars of the Meiji Restoration and, presuming the Shogunate conquers Korea with French backing, if the Japanese have just a 2% higher growth rate over OTL than by 1940 they will have an economy over 50% the size of the OTL United States.

2% as in absolute or relative terms? My understanding is that most countries didn't have large growth rates back then, so it may be easier said than done.

 

[History Learner]

2% as in absolute or relative terms? My understanding is that most countries didn't have large growth rates back then, so it may be easier said than done.

2% in absolute terms, and I think that would be possible with the inclusion of Korea in the 1870s.

 

[History Learner]

I'm reviving this mostly because of the recent Russia stuff having me consider their history, and remembering one detail that fits in nicely with what I wrote earlier about China. To that end, I would like to cite the topic of the Badmaev Plan:

Badmaev, a Russified Buriat Mongol, a recent convert to Russian Orthodoxy, whose godfather was none other than the tsar, sought to influence Russia's China policy and line his own pockets...The essence of Badmaev's missive was a fantastic proposal for acts that were intended to lead to the overthrow of the Manchu rulers of China and the subsequent voluntary submission of China and Tibet to Russian rule. The scheme, which would require covert Russian aid, called for a lengthy branch line from the Trans-Siberian Railroad to the city of Lanchow [Lanzhou] in Gansu Province. That line would confer enormous commercial benefits on Russia, and Lanchow would provide a jumping-off site for a revolt against the Manchu Dynasty led by Badmeav and his cohorts. The uprising would spread eastward, the dynasty would collapse, and a popular cry would arise for the tsar to assume dominion over China and Tibet. It was the kind of scheme which might have been hatched in a later era by the CIA. Strange though it seems, WItte endorsed Badmarv's proposal...

For example, in 1893, the Buryat Mongol physician Piotr Badmaev submitted a plan to Czar Alexander III for bringing parts of the Qing Empire under Russian sway, including Outer and Inner Mongolia and Tibet. He proposed extending the Trans-Siberian Railway from the Buryat homeland at Lake Baikal through Outer and Inner Mongolia to Gansu, China, next to the Tibetan border. When completed, he would organize, with Buryat help, an uprising in Tibet that would allow Russia to annex the country. Badmaev also proposed establishing a Russian trading company in Asia. Count Sergei Yulgevich Witte, Russian Finance Minister from 1882 to 1903, supported Badmaev’s two plans, but Czar Alexander accepted neither of them.

A Buriat by birth, Badmaev was a practitioner of Tibetan medicine with excellent political connections in the courts of Alexander III and Nicholas II. Badmaev's father was a prosperous cattle farmer of Buriat stock. After early schooling in Irkutsk, near Lake Baikal, Badmaev entered the Faculty of Oriental Languages at St. Petersburg University. Here he developed the interests that would provide his entrée into the upper reaches of imperial society: Russian foreign policy in East Asia and traditional Tibetan medicine. The future Alexander III served as Badmaev's godfather when he converted to Russian Orthodoxy, and Badmaev used Alexander's name for his patronymic. From 1875 to 1893, Badmaev worked in the Asiatic Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In 1893, in a memorandum sent to the finance minister, Sergei Witte, he outlined what became known as the Badmaev Plan, a project that called for railroad construction and commercial trading companies to extend Russian influence in Mongolia and as far as Tibet. Badmaev argued that the extension of the Trans-Siberian Railroad through Kiakhta and Peking to the Russian port of Vladivostok would provide Russia with the opportunity to promote rebellion among dissatisfied Chinese subjects, such as the Mongolians and Tibetans, who would appeal to the Russians for help. Badmaev's fellow Buriat Mongols of the Transbaikal region, who as Buddhists had long-standing religious and commercial interests in Mongolia and Tibet, would play a pivotal role as agents of Russian imperialism.

 

[WolfBear]

I'm reviving this mostly because of the recent Russia stuff having me consider their history, and remembering one detail that fits in nicely with what I wrote earlier about China. To that end, I would like to cite the topic of the Badmaev Plan:

A Russian Tibet is likely to severely freak out the British, no? Granted, there would be a Himalayan barrier between the two sides, but still, ...

 

[History Learner]

A Russian Tibet is likely to severely freak out the British, no? Granted, there would be a Himalayan barrier between the two sides, but still, ...

Without question, which is why I feel like this would result in arbitration and agreement really. Tibet falls under British influence completely while the Russians content themselves with much of Northern China.

 

[WolfBear]

Without question, which is why I feel like this would result in arbitration and agreement really. Tibet falls under British influence completely while the Russians content themselves with much of Northern China.

Would this mean puppetization or outright Russian annexation?

 

[History Learner]

Would this mean puppetization or outright Russian annexation?

It seems to be unclear, the plan specifically called for the Tsar to usurp the title of China which could make it an allegory to British India?

 

[WolfBear]

It seems to be unclear, the plan specifically called for the Tsar to usurp the title of China which could make it an allegory to British India?

Interesting. Southern China would remain independent, as in the Song era?

 

[History Learner]

Interesting. Southern China would remain independent, as in the Song era?

Did you read the section I wrote on China earlier in the thread? I kinda left it vague but I feel like you could go a lot of ways with China in this scenario tbh.

 

[WolfBear]

Did you read the section I wrote on China earlier in the thread? I kinda left it vague but I feel like you could go a lot of ways with China in this scenario tbh.

In post #19? No, but I will get around to doing so.

 

[History Learner]

In post #19? No, but I will get around to doing so.

Thanks, I'd love to hear your thoughts. My gut reaction is we would see the Taiping War collapse the Qing but then internal issues would collapse the Taiping and we'd have a Balkanized China the Europeans (including Russia) could take advantage of, with Japan being to a lesser extent.

 

[WolfBear]

Thanks, I'd love to hear your thoughts. My gut reaction is we would see the Taiping War collapse the Qing but then internal issues would collapse the Taiping and we'd have a Balkanized China the Europeans (including Russia) could take advantage of, with Japan being to a lesser extent.

I'll try reading it tomorrow.

 

[49ersfootball]

I'll try reading it tomorrow.

Interesting timeline

 

[History Learner]

Something I've thought about as of late with this is the possibility of it having a more immediate effect on events elsewhere, rather than the gradual butterfly effect I suggested earlier that only hits those directly impacted.

For example, there was an Anglo-Russian near stand off concerning the Danubian states of Wallachia and Moldova in 1848-1849. The Russians had occupied them, in concert with the Ottomans initially, to put down revolts but it appeared the Russians might seek to either annex them or bring them into their own sphere from the Ottoman one. London was apprehensive over this, and threatened to send the fleet and the Russians made clear this would engender war. Ultimately, the British backed down and the Russians peacefully resolved it with the Ottomans. If the UK is distracted by events in North America, in terms of seeing the need to organize Canada and the like in light of the events South of it, could Moscow use that as leverage or trick itself into perceiving the British as being too distracted? If so, we'd likely get a Crimean War in 1849, but without the French and Italian contingents to back up the Anglo-Ottomans. How that goes is hard to say, but the advantage does seem to be in favor of the Russians.

This also produces other effects. Without the Russian intervention, it's likely the Hungarians can force the Austrians to a diplomatic agreement in their ongoing conflict; an earlier Ausgleich perhaps? In the long term, this would be great for Austro-Hungary in terms of helping to solidify their internal conditions, perhaps also ironically checking the Hungarian nobility that proved troublesome historically. In the short term, however, the new state is going to be too focused domestically to do much in its abroad. Does that mean the Italians might win their quest for independence? Does Prussia successfully enforce the Erfurt Union to create the German Empire in 1850?

Depending on how you're willing to stretch the butterfly effect, much can happen.

 

[History Learner]

Something I've thought about as of late with this is the possibility of it having a more immediate effect on events elsewhere, rather than the gradual butterfly effect I suggested earlier that only hits those directly impacted.

For example, there was an Anglo-Russian near stand off concerning the Danubian states of Wallachia and Moldova in 1848-1849. The Russians had occupied them, in concert with the Ottomans initially, to put down revolts but it appeared the Russians might seek to either annex them or bring them into their own sphere from the Ottoman one. London was apprehensive over this, and threatened to send the fleet and the Russians made clear this would engender war. Ultimately, the British backed down and the Russians peacefully resolved it with the Ottomans. If the UK is distracted by events in North America, in terms of seeing the need to organize Canada and the like in light of the events South of it, could Moscow use that as leverage or trick itself into perceiving the British as being too distracted? If so, we'd likely get a Crimean War in 1849, but without the French and Italian contingents to back up the Anglo-Ottomans. How that goes is hard to say, but the advantage does seem to be in favor of the Russians.

This also produces other effects. Without the Russian intervention, it's likely the Hungarians can force the Austrians to a diplomatic agreement in their ongoing conflict; an earlier Ausgleich perhaps? In the long term, this would be great for Austro-Hungary in terms of helping to solidify their internal conditions, perhaps also ironically checking the Hungarian nobility that proved troublesome historically. In the short term, however, the new state is going to be too focused domestically to do much in its abroad. Does that mean the Italians might win their quest for independence? Does Prussia successfully enforce the Erfurt Union to create the German Empire in 1850?

Depending on how you're willing to stretch the butterfly effect, much can happen.

Given the various ways you can shape things with the Ottomans, Russians and Austrians, the Balkans could look very different. Case in point is this Pro-Greek map from 1877 that was floated around the time of the Berlin Conference:

Spoiler: Pro-Greek ethnic map of the Balkans by Ioannis Gennadius

If the Ottomans are getting written off, the Anglo-French-Austrians all would have a reason to back this Megali Idea style Greece, and stylizing it as a restoration of the Byzantine Empire could make it more amendable to the Russians, as least politically.

 

[WolfBear]

Given the various ways you can shape things with the Ottomans, Russians and Austrians, the Balkans could look very different. Case in point is this Pro-Greek map from 1877 that was floated around the time of the Berlin Conference:

Spoiler: Pro-Greek ethnic map of the Balkans by Ioannis Gennadius

If the Ottomans are getting written off, the Anglo-French-Austrians all would have a reason to back this Megali Idea style Greece, and stylizing it as a restoration of the Byzantine Empire could make it more amendable to the Russians, as least politically.

But didn't the Russians want Constantinople for themselves? And also, didn't the Russians want to have Bulgaria rather than Greece be their main proxy in the Balkans? Granted, attitudes can change, but still, it wouldn't be the Russians' first choice.

 

[History Learner]

But didn't the Russians want Constantinople for themselves? And also, didn't the Russians want to have Bulgaria rather than Greece be their main proxy in the Balkans? Granted, attitudes can change, but still, it wouldn't be the Russians' first choice.

Yes, which is why the the Anglo-French-Austrians would prefer to support it; it's a check on Russia and plays to the Hellenophile sensibilities of the West at this time. However, it also has a means of compromise built in that can make the Russians grudgingly accept it; this sort of scheme had precedent for the Tsars, given the Austrian-Russian "Greek Plan" of the 1780s. Restoring Constantinople to Orthodoxy and reviving the Byzantine Empire, even if not directly under their auspices, could be spun as a prestige victory and maybe a more practical neutrality of the Straits could be baked in too.

 

[WolfBear]

Yes, which is why the the Anglo-French-Austrians would prefer to support it; it's a check on Russia and plays to the Hellenophile sensibilities of the West at this time. However, it also has a means of compromise built in that can make the Russians grudgingly accept it; this sort of scheme had precedent for the Tsars, given the Austrian-Russian "Greek Plan" of the 1780s. Restoring Constantinople to Orthodoxy and reviving the Byzantine Empire, even if not directly under their auspices, could be spun as a prestige victory and maybe a more practical neutrality of the Straits could be baked in too.

Excellent analysis! That said, though, it's worth noting that this Mega-Greek state can also expand into the Constantinople suburbs on the Asian side of the Straits since they are less Muslim than the surrounding countryside:

I wonder if Greece also gets the Dodecanese Islands here while Russia gets Ottoman Armenia, or at least its southeastern half, and also whether an independent Mount Lebanon state is created here. I'm presuming that a Palestine Mandate won't happen here since Zionism wasn't actually a huge movement among European Jewry yet, right?

 

[WolfBear]

Also, this is a radical idea, but if Russia doesn't want more Armenians, what about having these Armenians resettle in large numbers in western Anatolia after it will be acquired by Greece? A 19th century version of the Byzantine population transfer idea, if you will.

 

[History Learner]

Also, this is a radical idea, but if Russia doesn't want more Armenians, what about having these Armenians resettle in large numbers in western Anatolia after it will be acquired by Greece? A 19th century version of the Byzantine population transfer idea, if you will.

Religious differences and the practicalities of such make such unlikely in my estimation. Certainly though, I can see Byzantine descended aristocrats in modern Romania encouraging their subjects to resettle there, same for the Tsars with their own ethnic Greeks along with pious Slavs, etc.