PsihoKekec
Swashbuckling Accountant
It seems lot of people have a reason to fear this and the next year
Who else dreads this year?
- Thread starter Cherico
- Start date
This seems incredibly specific. These are people not on rent or mortgage, not the population as a whole. What are the normal statistics for these people?
I think thats saying that, for example 30% of all households are not current with their rent or mortgage.
That's not what it's saying, at least as far as I can tell. The quote is:
So I think it should be parsed this like:
Ummmm, the phrase is 'not current', not 'not currently'. By not current they mean behind on payments.
Arch Dornan
Oh, lovely. They've sent me a mo-ron.
The Onion being half right after Gore and Bush except it's not Florida but the swing states.
Yeah it means that if you literally misquote the title.
It says "not current." That means behind on payments.
This is a REALLY bad economic situation.
This is why a relief package is still needed.
Huge swaths of the country have 41%+ people behind on mortgage/rent and facing foreclosure/eviction. This is bad. The stock markets are doing great but the economy is otherwise on the verge of an utter meltdown.
Ah, I couldn't copy and paste, so I had to type it. Sorry for the mistake. But still, I don't think my parsing is wrong here.
This is how I would phrase it for this parsing. For the other parsing, 'where' would go after adults, like:
Or even more succintly, if this is looking at all adults, we don't care why they think eviction is likely, so it would be more like:
I'd expect that a very high percentage of people behind on mortgage or rent would think that eviction is likely or somewhat likely. For me to be worried about this and think a bailout was necessary, I'd have to see prepandemic numbers from last year and compare.
EDIT: I just looked up the actual survey, and I was right, they were lying with statistics. Here's a link, click on housing insecurity. New York is actually the worst, with 16% of people encountering some type of housing insecurity (Percentage of adults who are not current on rent or mortgage payments, or who have slight or no confidence that their household can pay next month’s rent or mortgage on time). So let's take Florida, which according to this graph has about 40% of whatever. If, by your reading, it means that:
Then we need at least 40% of people in Florida "not current on rent or mortgage payments, or who have slight or no confidence that their household can pay next month’s rent or mortgage on time". But by the Same survey, only 7.3% of people are "not current on rent or mortgage payments, or who have slight or no confidence that their household can pay next month’s rent or mortgage on time".
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Panzerkraken
Well-known member
Yeah, the statistics are being misrepresented by pulling a different map (the eviction map from the same survey). That earlier graph was a grab from the Eviction tab on that survey. So of the 9.1M respondents in the survey, between 400k and 800k of them are behind in their payments. Of those, 39-63% are facing foreclosure in the next 2 months. So the actual numbers according to the survey data are "only" 156k - 504k facing who would be at risk of being homeless in the next 2 months (at the time of the survey).
Bear Ribs
Well-known member
That's not quite how it works either because you normally should extrapolate the rest of the country from the respondents, not just use the 9.1M who responded.
I haven't been able to find any other surveys on how many people are worried about eviction. However Eviction Lab has some useful information up to about 2016 on rates of evictions filed vs. actual evictions. The worst we've gotten in some time was during the 2008 economic crisis where eviction filing rates hit a touch over seven percent and actual evictions didn't quite break three. This is consistent with my experience where landlords are generally loath to ever evict someone and generally use eviction filing as a negotiating tactic (and means to get the court to assign a mediator) but generally don't want to actually have to evict.
Yeah. This could be bad, but not 40% of people getting evicted bad
Panzerkraken
Well-known member
I should have qualified that I was only talking about Florida, not the nation, and with nearly 50% of the population of the state responding, the sample size seemed more than reasonable.
Arch Dornan
Oh, lovely. They've sent me a mo-ron.
Taxes are back motherfucker.
Floridaman
Well-known member
On the brightside with money printing we will never again have a shortage of toilet paper.
CarlManvers2019
Writers Blocked Douchebag
I'm honestly expecting another attempt at worldwide lockdowns
By some new virus conveniently coming out and lots of world leaders and celebrities going on about how "ready we are"
My country while there are lots with an obsession with CNN and the like, at the very least seems to have the luck of NOT having an original sin to cow the population
Floridaman
Well-known member
Stock drop probably, but there won’t be mass eviction. The government will continue their moratorium, landlords will be fucked, and over time real estate will collapse as in such an environment who on earth would be willing to maintain rentals. So the future is more likely to be like you see in NYC where due to the regs the only thing built are high end condos, since those are sold, not rented.
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TyrantTriumphant
Well-known member
If the Democrats manage to cheat their way to victory in the Georgia Senate elections, then I suspect they will try to pack the Supreme Court within their first year in power. It would be rather difficult to achieve some of their more radical policies with conservatives in the majority in the court and they have promised a lot to their radical wing.
Of course if they do that then it is almost inevitable that the Union will dissolve in some form of another. It might take a few months for things to get rolling, but in the wake of the Supreme Court being packed I would expect to see conservative areas of the country engage in mass civil disobedience, nullification, and ultimately demand secession.
Whether that would dissolve into civil war at that point is hard to say. It's certainly possible that cooler heads on the leftist's side would permit a peaceful breakup, considering that the Democrat's leadership would be unlikely to survive a civil war regardless of the outcome.
While a successful peaceful secession wouldn't be easy, especial since the Red Blue split is mostly an urban versus rural thing, it would certainly be better than a civil war. With how interlocked our economy is, especially in regards to food, a significant portion of the population would almost die in any sort of internal war. And given how dependent some parts of the world are on our food exports it is likely that mass starvation would break out in many foreign countries.
So yes, I dread this year. And I dread next year even more.
Of course if they do that then it is almost inevitable that the Union will dissolve in some form of another. It might take a few months for things to get rolling, but in the wake of the Supreme Court being packed I would expect to see conservative areas of the country engage in mass civil disobedience, nullification, and ultimately demand secession.
Whether that would dissolve into civil war at that point is hard to say. It's certainly possible that cooler heads on the leftist's side would permit a peaceful breakup, considering that the Democrat's leadership would be unlikely to survive a civil war regardless of the outcome.
While a successful peaceful secession wouldn't be easy, especial since the Red Blue split is mostly an urban versus rural thing, it would certainly be better than a civil war. With how interlocked our economy is, especially in regards to food, a significant portion of the population would almost die in any sort of internal war. And given how dependent some parts of the world are on our food exports it is likely that mass starvation would break out in many foreign countries.
So yes, I dread this year. And I dread next year even more.
Doomsought
Well-known member
There will never be a peaceful breakup. The entire point of all that is happening is to sacrifice prosperity for power.