Taiwan Straights Tension

WolfBear

Well-known member
Do you think that the US would actually be willing to go to war with China over Taiwan? The question here is self-explanatory. On the one hand, the US has been de facto defending Taiwan for over 70 years and has a long history of directly participating in Asian Wars:

-The Asian theater of the Spanish-American War
-The Filipino-American War
-The Pacific theater of World War II
-The Korean War
-The Vietnam War

So, it would fit a historical pattern for the US to also militarily intervene here. On the flip side, though, the American people are likely more isolationist than they were 10 or 20 years ago. Then again, Taiwan does produce a huge part of the world's semiconductors.

Anyway, what do you think?
 
It depends on who is in the White House.

If the US commits to helping Taiwan fight off China, the war will be very, very short.

Short wars rarely have the time to become wildly unpopular at home.

A short war and a decisive US victory?
 
The reason it wouldn't be short is if whoever is in charge of the USA decided we need to land forces in China for stupids.

You mean similar to how Israel sent ground troops to Lebanon in 2006 to fight Hezbollah instead of doing it exclusively by sea and air? This little stunt on Israel's part cost a whopping 121 Israeli soldiers' lives in that war! :(
 
Do you think that the US would actually be willing to go to war with China over Taiwan? The question here is self-explanatory. On the one hand, the US has been de facto defending Taiwan for over 70 years and has a long history of directly participating in Asian Wars:

-The Asian theater of the Spanish-American War
-The Filipino-American War
-The Pacific theater of World War II
-The Korean War
-The Vietnam War

So, it would fit a historical pattern for the US to also militarily intervene here. On the flip side, though, the American people are likely more isolationist than they were 10 or 20 years ago. Then again, Taiwan does produce a huge part of the world's semiconductors.

Anyway, what do you think?

They'd absolutely intervene, given the economic ties and political prestige attached to Taiwan, but then we would rapidly get our asses kicked. Don't believe me, believe the Pentagon:

The U.S. Military 'Failed Miserably' in a Fake Battle Over Taiwan

The U.S. military reportedly "failed miserably" in a series of wargame scenarios designed to test the Pentagon's might. The flunked exercises, which took place last October, are a red flag that the way the military has operated for years isn't going to fly against today's enemies.​
Specifically, a simulated adversary that has studied the American way of war for decades managed to run rings around U.S. forces, defeating them decisively. "They knew exactly what we're going to do before we did it," Gen. John Hyten, Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, revealed at an industry event.​

While Hyten did not disclose the name of the wargame (it's classifed), he did say that one of the exercises focused exclusively on a brawl between U.S. and Chinese forces fighting over Taiwan—a scenario that seems increasingly likely.​

'We're going to lose fast': U.S. Air Force held a war game that started with a Chinese biological attack

Meanwhile, a leading Chinese think tank recently described tensions in U.S.-China relations as the worst since the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989, and it advised Communist Party leaders to prepare for war with the United States.​
What many Americans don’t realize is that years of classified Pentagon war games strongly suggest that the U.S. military would lose that war.​
“More than a decade ago, our war games indicated that the Chinese were doing a good job of investing in military capabilities that would make our preferred model of expeditionary warfare, where we push forces forward and operate out of relatively safe bases and sanctuaries, increasingly difficult,” Air Force Lt. Gen. S. Clinton Hinote, deputy chief of staff for strategy, integration and requirements, told Yahoo News in an exclusive interview. By 2018, the People’s Liberation Army had fielded many of those forces in large numbers, to include massive arsenals of precision-guided surface-to-air and surface-to-surface missiles, a space-based constellation of navigation and targeting satellites and the largest navy in the world.​
“At that point the trend in our war games was not just that we were losing, but we were losing faster,” Hinote said. “After the 2018 war game I distinctly remember one of our gurus of war gaming standing in front of the Air Force secretary and chief of staff, and telling them that we should never play this war game scenario [of a Chinese attack on Taiwan] again, because we know what is going to happen. The definitive answer if the U.S. military doesn’t change course is that we’re going to lose fast. In that case, an American president would likely be presented with almost a fait accompli.”​
 
They'd absolutely intervene, given the economic ties and political prestige attached to Taiwan, but then we would rapidly get our asses kicked. Don't believe me, believe the Pentagon:

The U.S. Military 'Failed Miserably' in a Fake Battle Over Taiwan

The U.S. military reportedly "failed miserably" in a series of wargame scenarios designed to test the Pentagon's might. The flunked exercises, which took place last October, are a red flag that the way the military has operated for years isn't going to fly against today's enemies.​
Specifically, a simulated adversary that has studied the American way of war for decades managed to run rings around U.S. forces, defeating them decisively. "They knew exactly what we're going to do before we did it," Gen. John Hyten, Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, revealed at an industry event.​

While Hyten did not disclose the name of the wargame (it's classifed), he did say that one of the exercises focused exclusively on a brawl between U.S. and Chinese forces fighting over Taiwan—a scenario that seems increasingly likely.​

'We're going to lose fast': U.S. Air Force held a war game that started with a Chinese biological attack

Meanwhile, a leading Chinese think tank recently described tensions in U.S.-China relations as the worst since the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989, and it advised Communist Party leaders to prepare for war with the United States.​
What many Americans don’t realize is that years of classified Pentagon war games strongly suggest that the U.S. military would lose that war.​
“More than a decade ago, our war games indicated that the Chinese were doing a good job of investing in military capabilities that would make our preferred model of expeditionary warfare, where we push forces forward and operate out of relatively safe bases and sanctuaries, increasingly difficult,” Air Force Lt. Gen. S. Clinton Hinote, deputy chief of staff for strategy, integration and requirements, told Yahoo News in an exclusive interview. By 2018, the People’s Liberation Army had fielded many of those forces in large numbers, to include massive arsenals of precision-guided surface-to-air and surface-to-surface missiles, a space-based constellation of navigation and targeting satellites and the largest navy in the world.​
“At that point the trend in our war games was not just that we were losing, but we were losing faster,” Hinote said. “After the 2018 war game I distinctly remember one of our gurus of war gaming standing in front of the Air Force secretary and chief of staff, and telling them that we should never play this war game scenario [of a Chinese attack on Taiwan] again, because we know what is going to happen. The definitive answer if the U.S. military doesn’t change course is that we’re going to lose fast. In that case, an American president would likely be presented with almost a fait accompli.”​

But at least we would get a lot of Taiwanese refugees moving over here and bringing their excellent cuisine, cute Asian waifus, and high-tech over here, right? ;)
 
They'd absolutely intervene, given the economic ties and political prestige attached to Taiwan, but then we would rapidly get our asses kicked. Don't believe me, believe the Pentagon:

The U.S. Military 'Failed Miserably' in a Fake Battle Over Taiwan

The U.S. military reportedly "failed miserably" in a series of wargame scenarios designed to test the Pentagon's might. The flunked exercises, which took place last October, are a red flag that the way the military has operated for years isn't going to fly against today's enemies.​
Specifically, a simulated adversary that has studied the American way of war for decades managed to run rings around U.S. forces, defeating them decisively. "They knew exactly what we're going to do before we did it," Gen. John Hyten, Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, revealed at an industry event.​

While Hyten did not disclose the name of the wargame (it's classifed), he did say that one of the exercises focused exclusively on a brawl between U.S. and Chinese forces fighting over Taiwan—a scenario that seems increasingly likely.​

'We're going to lose fast': U.S. Air Force held a war game that started with a Chinese biological attack

Meanwhile, a leading Chinese think tank recently described tensions in U.S.-China relations as the worst since the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989, and it advised Communist Party leaders to prepare for war with the United States.​
What many Americans don’t realize is that years of classified Pentagon war games strongly suggest that the U.S. military would lose that war.​
“More than a decade ago, our war games indicated that the Chinese were doing a good job of investing in military capabilities that would make our preferred model of expeditionary warfare, where we push forces forward and operate out of relatively safe bases and sanctuaries, increasingly difficult,” Air Force Lt. Gen. S. Clinton Hinote, deputy chief of staff for strategy, integration and requirements, told Yahoo News in an exclusive interview. By 2018, the People’s Liberation Army had fielded many of those forces in large numbers, to include massive arsenals of precision-guided surface-to-air and surface-to-surface missiles, a space-based constellation of navigation and targeting satellites and the largest navy in the world.​
“At that point the trend in our war games was not just that we were losing, but we were losing faster,” Hinote said. “After the 2018 war game I distinctly remember one of our gurus of war gaming standing in front of the Air Force secretary and chief of staff, and telling them that we should never play this war game scenario [of a Chinese attack on Taiwan] again, because we know what is going to happen. The definitive answer if the U.S. military doesn’t change course is that we’re going to lose fast. In that case, an American president would likely be presented with almost a fait accompli.”​
Except it's called we make these claims to get money because "SEE WE CANT WIN! OUR TESTS SHOW WE NEED MORE MONEY!"
Have you ever seen what the military does?
We did the same about the MIG 25, then we made the F-15, then we made the F-22.
Turns our we didn't need too, but that's the point.

We overestimate our enemies.

China is also using knock off Russian tech
 
Except it's called we make these claims to get money because "SEE WE CANT WIN! OUR TESTS SHOW WE NEED MORE MONEY!"
Have you ever seen what the military does?
We did the same about the MIG 25, then we made the F-15, then we made the F-22.
Turns our we didn't need too, but that's the point.

We overestimate our enemies.

China is also using knock off Russian tech

Yes, I've seen what the military does in that it most recently lost to Afghan tribesmen using 30 year old Russian tech after we spent 20 years fighting them to the tune of trillions of dollars. Given that failure, along with the previous recent failure in Iraq, I'm willing to conclude we are indeed as corrupt, deluded and ineffective as our tests show and you concede here. That's what I love about the issue of China for several of you here, in that you back yourselves up into these schizophrenic arguments that fall apart under the least scrutiny.

Either the tests are correct or, as you assert here, our Defense establishment is hopelessly corrupt and ineffective. In which case, defer back to the test results if our leadership is that stupid. However, I don't think you actually believe the latter argument because if you did you wouldn't care this much about the China issue. If we have this great military superiority you and others assert, combined with their imminently collapsing economy (again, which many of you assert), there is absolutely no reason to focus one second of the day upon them; your arguments, if taken at face value, mean they can be safely written off.

That you don't do that says it all about what you really feel about the situation.
 
As someone who is in the military and knows full well what we do.
China has an untested military.
Hell, do you remeber what Poland said about Russia? Warsaw in days? Yet now....
Huh almost like we overstate how powerful something is so we can make ourselves ready foe something we don't know everything about.

Like the MIG 25, thought it was a super aircraft, turns out it was horrible, yet we made plenty of counters.

Wierd
 
The best way is to actually do it and see the results once all the simulations are done but you'll have to bear the results in real time if things don't go your way.
 
It would be nice if American military equipment was made in a way that was simple, easy to fix, and cheap to sell as well.
 
I don't think China is worried about the United States getting involved; not after what happened in Afghanistan, and what's currently not happening in Ukraine. They know we'll stay out of their way, so the only thing they really have to worry about is their Southeast Asian neighbors allying with each other against them; which would be more than enough to stop their invasion of Taiwan cold.
 
I don't think China is worried about the United States getting involved; not after what happened in Afghanistan, and what's currently not happening in Ukraine. They know we'll stay out of their way, so the only thing they really have to worry about is their Southeast Asian neighbors allying with each other against them; which would be more than enough to stop their invasion of Taiwan cold.
What?
You mean how we are supplying Ukraine?
And how we arnt going full send to war with Russia?
Taiwan is a lot more value to the US then Ukraine
 
I think the Chinese leadership is trying to convince themselves that the US won't interfere when the CCP invades Taiwan. Biden is helping them achieve this deception. There is pretty much a zero chance that the US does not aggressively defend Taiwan. The warhawks on both sides of the aisle WILL make sure it happens.

What worries me is that Biden is doing so much damage to the US' reputation abroad that I'm pretty sure Xi sees it as you do @Terthna. Which means the CCP has a false expectation of things. Which is how many wars start. Which is why I think this one will start sooner rather than later.
 
What?
You mean how we are supplying Ukraine?
In way that basically ensures that most of it is embezzled by the same sorts of people the Bidens were in business with, yeah.

And how we arnt going full send to war with Russia?
Which I agree with, but I'm aware that a lot of others don't; and to be fair, it's being done in a way that makes America look weak.

Taiwan is a lot more value to the US then Ukraine
And China is a lot more valuable than Taiwan to the people in the United States government who would actually make the decision to get involved or not.



I think the Chinese leadership is trying to convince themselves that the US won't interfere when the CCP invades Taiwan. Biden is helping them achieve this deception. There is pretty much a zero chance that the US does not aggressively defend Taiwan. The warhawks on both sides of the aisle WILL make sure it happens.

What worries me is that Biden is doing so much damage to the US' reputation abroad that I'm pretty sure Xi sees it as you do @Terthna. Which means the CCP has a false expectation of things. Which is how many wars start. Which is why I think this one will start sooner rather than later.
Before the Afghanistan retreat, I would have argued that there was zero chance that American troops would leave behind American civilians in a war zone; not to mention billions of dollars in undamaged military hardware to be seized by our enemies. I've since then learned not to underestimate the depths to which we've fallen.
 
What worries me is that Biden is doing so much damage to the US' reputation abroad that I'm pretty sure Xi sees it as you do @Terthna. Which means the CCP has a false expectation of things. Which is how many wars start. Which is why I think this one will start sooner rather than later.
One of the dialogues I heard between Biden and Xi is he accuses Biden of being two faced on his promises something like you say one thing but I see American movement act differently on the world toward China.
 

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