Considering their space program was humming right before the start of the VSMO... I wouldn't take any bets on any significant portion of their nuclear strike capability being degraded... and 'Star Wars' was a giant bluff that worked while the only ones who've proven rocket defense are the Israelis with their enormously expensive, range limited and far from infallible Iron Dome system. Ukraine hasn't stopped hardly any of the Kalibur missiles Russia keeps firing months after the reddit/twitter anal...ysts predicted them to run out... It's almost like Russia still has the population, resources and infrastructure capable to build this stuff... even if they aren't using it particularly well.
Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)
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LordsFire
Internet Wizard
Star Wars was not a bluff. There was a very real intention behind it, though just how difficult missile defense would be was not yet fully understood.
You're right that the US hasn't had to test its ABM shield against hostile powers yet. That's because nobody has been dumb enough to start World War III, Atomic Boogaloo.
This doesn't mean that the technology has not continued to be developed, refined, and tested in the intervening decades. It is fair to say that its effectiveness has not been tested in a mass launch/mass defense situation, but it is also fair to say the reliability of Russia's nuclear deployment systems have not been tested in a mass launch situation either.
What we do know for sure, is that if the Russians launch, not every missile will launch, and not all that launch will reach their targets. Percentages of failures? That we don't know.
We also know that the ABM shield will be activated, and they'll try to intercept as many nukes as they can. Percentage of successful interceptions? That we don't know.
We also know that Russia has zero anti-ballistic nuclear missile capability. If NATO launches against them, the only ones that fail to hit, will be those that suffer mechanical failures. That isn't a conflict that Russia wants to get into.
(And, as a note, China doesn't have an ABM shield either, which is part of why they also probably will never use nukes except if China gets invaded.)
I was given to understand that they did have something like that, specifically to defend Moscow.
LordsFire
Internet Wizard
They've tried to develop such, but last I checked, they've not actually succeeded.
Outside of some magical infallible and invincible shield that could also prevent any dead hand final FU device making Chernobyl look like eating a banana in relative release of radioactive particles, the basic rules of MAD still apply.
And China's 'ABM shield' is probably hypersonic missiles hitting us before we can respond with the majority of our arsenal. Evne in that case though I'm pretty sure the basic rules of MAD still apply.
If they've developed something and deployed it, it likely works as well as the rest of their ADMs work against HIMARs...which means not at all.
No, the Moscow ABM system does not depend on making the interceptor actually collide with the incoming missile. It's more like in Missile Command. The interceptor is itself a small nuke, and just needs to be close enough.
LordsFire
Internet Wizard
MAD still applies to a degree. You don't want any nukes hitting your nation, but if the enemy knows that only 1/3 they launch will get through, whereas 90-95% of the ones you launch will?
That makes them much less interested in playing the escalation game.
That aside, I rather suspect that you don't know what you're talking about when it comes to hypersonic missiles. Tell me, what do you think is faster, the standard Minuteman III missile US nuclear ordinance is launched on, or the more recent hypersonic missiles?
Australia will likely win since it's on average smarter than Brazil is. Brazil's only hope would be if the sheer size of its population will produce enough smart people to counter Australia to compensate for its much lower average IQ relative to Australia.
paulobrito
Well-known member
The modern Russian ICBMs and SLBMs each launch 8-12 MIRV systems - some are warheads, others are decoys. Each ABM launch need to deal with all of these, so go try if you feel lucky.
Regarding the reliability of the Russian missiles - the same rules apply to US ones, they also have problems with their missiles.
About the HIMARS - They are not magic, the Ukrainians simply launch a salvo of their older, less precise missiles before, saturating the Russian defenses and the more precise HIMARS fly just after, while the Russian systems are busy re-arming.
So, yes, MAD rules are very much still in effect.
Regarding the reliability of the Russian missiles - the same rules apply to US ones, they also have problems with their missiles.
About the HIMARS - They are not magic, the Ukrainians simply launch a salvo of their older, less precise missiles before, saturating the Russian defenses and the more precise HIMARS fly just after, while the Russian systems are busy re-arming.
So, yes, MAD rules are very much still in effect.
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1. With the numbers of nukes Russia and the USA have, 1/10th or maybe even 1/100th is 'more than enough'. And again that's discounting any hypothetical Dr. Strangelove system like the doomsday torp Russia announced a couple years back that will fk the world no matter where it goes off.
2. Speed of a Minuteman =/= total reaction time needed to detect and launch in response to a hypothetical first strike which, yes, I admit I don't know what it is. If it's shorter than the flight time of the Chicom missiles? MAD rules. If it's longer? Still MAD rules because they're almost certainly not bagging all our SSBN's.
LordsFire
Internet Wizard
A fairly standard ABM objective is to intercept before a MIRV can split. Again, we don't know how successful that'll be, because these weapons have never been used in war, but MIRV existing makes terminal-stage interception of marginal use, not early or mid-stage.
Also, if you have links to Russians successfully intercepting any missiles, I'd like to see it. Also, HIMARS and older Grads are much, much easier to intercept than ICBMs.
1. The Russians have less than 300 missile delivery systems capable of reaching the US. So 1/10th means 30 total, and 1/100th means three total. They may have about 6000 warheads available, but that does not mean they have them ready to be delivered.
2. 'Hypersonic missiles' are slower than traditional ICBMs. The advantage to them is that they fly much lower, rather than entering low earth orbit, so the engagement window on them is much lower.
Detecting that they've been launched on the other hand is not as much of a problem, and unless you have a day where the Navy is sleeping, and storms block out skies across the entire Atlantic and/or Pacific, nobody is going to be able to get them to the US before counter-strikes are not just launched, but landed. Last I checked (and a cursory search just now) they're not ready to serve as an alternative to ICBMs as yet. There's tactical and theater-ranged versions either nearing or in service, but nothing that's going to carry a nuke from China or Russia to the mainland USA.
Also, the US has them too. We just don't make as big a deal out of them, because we don't need to act like we're bigger and more dangerous than we actually are. Everybody already knows the US military is the biggest kid on the block.
The Dysfunction of Russian Mobilization Is Real Yet Doesn't Matter (That Much)
Don't miss the forest for the trees
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Ukrainian refugee arrested after 'trying to kick down ex-lover's door'
Sofiia Karkadym has been arrested after attempting to kick down her ex-lover's front doorwww.examinerlive.co.uk
The honeymoon phase didn't last a year.
I remember her, I think!
For everyone saying that our current ABM is anywhere near enough to deal with Russia, we have 44 Ground Based Interceptors. It seems designed to say Fuck North Korea and Iran, and we might as well fire it off against everyone else (which, fair enough, the two most likely places to launch are the Norks and Iran). Even if every one hits a missile, that's still 250+ Ballistic Missiles (times the MIRV amount). We have a few others, but even all together they won't be enough No, a nuclear exchange with Russia kills us all.
Would still having a missile defense system in Eastern Europe have significantly helped in regards to this?
Knowledgeispower
Ah I love the smell of missile spam in the morning
what do you think AEGIS ashore in Romania and the burkes based out of spain are for?
Thanks. I was just wondering because I know that Obama changed Bush Jr.'s missile defense plan back in 2009-2010 in order to avoid pissing off Russia as a part of Obama's attempted Russia reset.
The point I am getting at is this time the Russians will make it out better surrendering them fighting
I mean.
That is publicly available knowledge.
One needs to remember that we have more then ground based, and that the US is at least 4 steps ahead of the rest of the world.
We just don't announce it....
Edit: I am not saying I know anything.
I am just saying dint think what is outwardly known is the full thing, or that we arnt ahead in ways.
Remeber we made the F-117 and the F-22 before any other country got close.
We confirmed a gen 6 fighter has been flying and every other country can hardly get a 5th gen.
Also rember, we just let it be known we have a fucking new strategic bomber.
None of what you listed has to do with our ability to stop nukes. Note also that we know we have those things, so using them as an argument that the US is sandbagging doesn't work.
We're working on one, but still, it's woefully inadequate from what I can tell. Which, fair enough, some of this is new tech, and there's a ton of political problems that need to go through.
Don't get me wrong, the GMD program is absolutely great at what it's designed to do: stop a country from getting a few ICBMs then holding the US at gunpoint forever. What it isn't, that people keep pretending that it and other anti missile programs are, is a Russia/China nope button.