United States 2024: United States Senate Dicussion Thread

Vyor said:

He'd lose, hard.



I really don't. I think people overestimate it.

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JagerIV said:

Ron Paul (Dad, sure, but a good jump off point) is actually one of the reasons I'm very wary of any attempt to push Trump out at this point: the bullshit pulled against him in the Romney election: he had no chance, but the Republican Establishment still felt the need to fix things for Romney.

If Trump were to be pushed out, the people in charge of it would be Mitch, not DeSantis: I don't think DeSantis really has any national infrastructure of his own at this point: he would be throwing himself at the mercy of Mitch and the Republican establishment.

Trump has some national infrastructure, and at this point if 2024 is not something the Republicans are actually well positioned to win, its more productive for Trump to burn out on that, and hopefully pull down a few more establishment types with him.

If nothing else, Mitch McConnell will be 82 in 2024, and 86 in 2028. If the next big serious election the Republicans have a good chance to win is 2028, Mitch Will be gone by that point one way or another, and if you can get Trump/American force people in now, you can replace that generation with people who will be more in line with the then 50 year old Ron DeSantis, which would be an ideal age, and he will be able to do much more with a more friendly GOP elite.

Maybe this is time to focus more on continuing the purges to get a unified enough party, rather than compromising to an attempted big tent?

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Spartan303 said:

All indications pointed to the Red Wave. Everyone from Dem to Republican and the MSN knew it was coming. Or so everyone thought. That has turned out not to be the case. Some races are still in play despite fact the Election has been over with for 2 to 3 days. I'll skip your sniping and get to American first movement. Trump actually didn't start that. Populism has been on the rise for years. Long before Trump came into the picture. Remember the Tea Party? That was just one version of it. Trump was just the man who made it a reality when the Tea Party was destroyed from the inside by the Establishment Leadership. So Right Wing Populism has been around for a while now.

Trump still has my vote. But if he doesn't run and DeSantis does, then he would have my vote. But DeSantis has said clearly he isn't running in 2024. So unless that changes this is a moot point.

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Vyor said:

Calling someone a friend and saying "I voted for him" is not lashing out.

Anyway...

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Rocinante said:

I don't think he will.

But I'll be voting for him in 2024, because I expect he will be the candidate.

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Bacle said:

Trump is a liability, and his ego and pettiness are not Dem lies, those are his own flaws.

Remember way back when you talked about how great this red wave was going to be and that I was just a black pill for doubting it.

Yeah, turns out maybe you are more out of touch with the feelings of the non-hardcore GOP base than you think, Spartan.

The GOP needs someone with Trump's populist politics, but not Trump's ego or pettiness; the America First movement must be able to move past Trump and become bigger than Trump, if it is to truly turn back the Dems insanity.

Trump started the America First movement, but the movement is bigger than him now, much bigger (to Trump's credit), and it needs to find younger blood, not let Trump become the end all, be all of the movement.
It'll be Biden, if Trump runs; Biden is going to run unless he drops dead.

The GOP need new blood to run in 2024, someone who can appeal to the Independents and Libertarian swing voters, not just the hardcore MAGA or GOP base.

Personally, I'd be focused on looking outside the party for new ideas, new talent, not at a pick between Trump or DeSantis or someone from the Old Boys club; DeSantis is more needed in Florida building a red bastion that can outlast insanity in DC.

From inside the GOP, only 2 really stand out that might be ok for 2024.

Zeldin out of NY might not be a bad pick; he didn't win, but his coattails helped flipped a bunch of blue seats, including Staten Island; Biden's and the Dem's fuckery might cause NY to go red in 2024, which would be a pain for the Dems.

Rand Paul would not be a horrible pick for 2024, if he was willing to go for it and open up the Senate seat for a Special election. However, he may be more useful where he is.

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Sergeant Foley said:

You don't think Trump will run again in 2024? 😕

Why not?

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Rocinante said:

B

I don't think he will win again.

He's definitely going to run again.

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Planchar said:

Doesn’t fucking matter they aren’t voting for Biden. They are voting against Trump

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Ixian said:

They also recently elected a dead guy and a guy with brain damage following a stroke.

If the Biden administration announced tomorrow that Biden has late stage dementia, most Democrats would still vote for him in 2024.

Candidate quality only seems to matter to Republicans and Independents. The Democrats will vote for anyone with a (D) next to the name.

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The One Char said:

Yeah @Bacle hasn't seemed to catch on that his "45%" are complete fucking morons.

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Bacle said:

Yet they still vote, and guess what, you cannot ignore 45% of the electorate and expect to have good electoral odds.

Deal with the electorate you have, not the electorate you wish you had.

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Planchar said:

Doesn’t fucking matter they aren’t voting for Biden. They are voting against Trump

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Bacle said:

There are figures out there for this, and after this election they are just more confirmed; about 1/3rd of the population love Trump, about 45% hate Trump, and the remainder might be convinced to support Trump, but Trump keep's shooting his own feet.

More people hate Trump than love him, and the margin in between the two the two groups is not big enough to ignore for electoral purposes. Trump won in 2016 because Hillary was just that unlikable, and Trump represented something new from outside the system. He was a bull in china chop who caused the Dems to drop the mask, which is damned important; however his own ego and pettiness kept holding Trump back from being truly great as a leader and POTUS.

Not all of Trump's fuck ups and missteps are Dem lies or misinformation, and a lot of people who supported him before enthuisastically would only vote for him reluctantly now, and not with the expectation he will win.

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Ixian said:

They also recently elected a dead guy and a guy with brain damage following a stroke.

If the Biden administration announced tomorrow that Biden has late stage dementia, most Democrats would still vote for him in 2024.

Candidate quality only seems to matter to Republicans and Independents. The Democrats will vote for anyone with a (D) next to the name.

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Bacle said:

Yet they still vote, and guess what, you cannot ignore 45% of the electorate and expect to have good electoral odds.

Deal with the electorate you have, not the electorate you wish you had.

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What the 2020 electorate looks like by party, race and ethnicity, age, education and religion

What does the 2020 electorate look like politically, demographically and religiously as the race enters its final days?

www.pewresearch.org

The One Char said:

And what happens if that 45% decides to side with the people who think everyone to the right of chairman Mao should be exterminated?

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Ixian said:

They also recently elected a dead guy and a guy with brain damage following a stroke.

If the Biden administration announced tomorrow that Biden has late stage dementia, most Democrats would still vote for him in 2024.

Candidate quality only seems to matter to Republicans and Independents. The Democrats will vote for anyone with a (D) next to the name.

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Dead Republican candidate wins seat in North Dakota after losing battle with COVID-19

A North Dakota man won a seat in the state legislature Tuesday night nearly a month after he died from COVID-19.

www.google.com

Planchar said:

Well for one that wouldn't happen.

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The One Char said:

And what happens if that 45% decides to side with the people who think everyone to the right of chairman Mao should be exterminated?

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Vyor said:

Most people do not vote, period. And you want to know what's funny?

That 45% number you gave has better odds for trump than this.

What the 2020 electorate looks like by party, race and ethnicity, age, education and religion

What does the 2020 electorate look like politically, demographically and religiously as the race enters its final days?

www.pewresearch.org

You are literally just saying how many democrats and lean democrat people there are with that number, people that won't vote for a republican if it was needed to save their own lives.

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Bacle said:

That 45% mostly hates Trump, not the Right or Republicans in general. Some of those people can be convince to vote R, but not for Trump.

I really do not think you get how much Trump's personality and antics have turned otherwsie reasonable moderates and centrists of to him.

They don't trust Trump with power, and I right now I cannot really blame them, even if the media lies about Trump a lot.
See, this is conflating parts of the center with the Far Left, which misses important distinctions we just saw happen a few days ago.

This poll does not show the Libertarians as an independent category, so we have no idea how their vote is moving around, and they just proved they can decide races by which way they vote.

Also, candidate quality matters as much as whether and R. D, or L is next to their name. Dems will hold their nose and vote for almost anyone with a D, however some may go R if certain issues like 2A stuff is on the table. The Dems won't learn any lessons from this election, which might be a blessing for the GOP in 2024, but the GOP needs to change course and fast.

We have to move beyond Trump to have a chance of future success, no matter what we felt about him in the past. I don't like it, but I cannot deny that is the reality the GOP faces. The GOP will also have to factor Libertarians into their politics as well, and start thinking of creating power-sharing agreements with Lib candidates to keep votes from being split.

Sacrificing a few House seats to the Libertarians, by agreeing to back Lib candidates of they have a better shot against the Dems in certain areas, might help the GOP remove power from the Dems in the long term. Breaking the two-party dynamic in Congress would do a lot to help this nation.

The GOP will never be the sole power in DC or US culture, no matter how much it wants to be, and needs to set realistic expectations and electorate assessments. It needs to pick candidates who are hard to vote against, more than it needs candidates who fire up the hardcore base.

The Far-Right might grumble about bring forced to compromise with lolberts and moderates, but if it puts a solid check on Dem insanity going forward, the Far Right will hold it's nose and vote either R, or L if need be, to stop the Dems.

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