United States 2024: United States Senate Dicussion Thread
- Thread starter 49ersfootball
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This simply is not true. Again, people who are disconnected with politics have a severe hatred for Trump, but this doesn't spread outward, and is very focused. He is an asshole, and people get this. Unfortunately, his being an asshole turns people off to him.
Terthna
Professional Lurker
And if that's all the justification they need to vote for Biden, a man who has express his sincere hatred for the people of the United States numerous times, as well as his desire to see them destitute, locked up forever, or dead, then it should be laughably easy to make them hate whomever the Republicans decide to run in 2024 as well.
hyperspacewizard
Well-known member
Really the best thing would be to get the current people running the Republican Party out of politics. I wish the founders had placed an age limit on all offices and term limits on everything. I feel at some point we became a society ruled by the geriatric. Anyone past 65 should be doing something else with their remaining life.
Pocky Balboa
Well-known member
This. All I'm going to say is, the library I work at was used as a voting location and is located in a town in one of the FL counties flipped to red, and most of the people living here all keep voting blue. I asked people exiting the polls while shilling our library programs to them on who'd they choose, Biden or DeSantis, they chose the senior pedo. Asked the same thing to the other voluntolds I was working with in the hurricane shelter the next day, same response. For fucking dumbass reasons too. "hurr durr, sure everything's more expensive, but I ain't choosing DeSantis for anything cuz he won't drain Lake Okeechobee some so we could have an easier time fishing on our days off."
It literally cost the entire media their entire credibility and Trump winning a 4 year term to make Trump so hated. They succeeded, but at such a cost that crippled them (just look at their ratings). They couldn't do it again, and won't. On top of that, Trump handed them most of the material they needed. He is an asshole, the media just went "He's being an Asshole!" 24/7. They aren't magic, they can't just sink a candidate just because they don't like him.
Terthna
Professional Lurker
After two years of Biden though, anyone capable of rational thought should recognize that Trump is the lesser evil. If they can't? That says to me that they're the sort of person that the media wouldn't have to put much effort into convincing them of anything.
Donald Trump endorsed 239 Candidates. 219 of them won. That is a 93% success rate. So I'm curious as to how people are saying Trump has lost his touch when his effectiveness is in the 90s.
Did you happen to watch the Ben Shapiro video's I posted yesterday, because he goes into this in detail.
TL;DR: The race's Trump candidates won were not competitive races; in the competitive races Trump's picks mostly lost. This means Trump might be fine in hard red areas, but the swing areas dislike him a lot.
I respect Ben Shapiro, but the simple fact is, he's a NeoCon. He's not even hiding it. He's open to working with Populists and other style Republicans, but he makes no beans about his criticisms of Trump and having been against him for years.
Again, not everyone is as hooked into politics as we are. Most aren't. All they think about politics is contempt for Trump, and think Biden's a moron. But better a moron than someone awful. But they'd cheerfully vote DeSantis over Biden.
Look, what people fail to realize is that Biden is considered incredibly safe because he is a moron. That's how he won the primary: he didn't seem to be a radical, he was just dumb. Given the lesser of two evils, people will choose dumb over evil everytime. But give them any other option but Trump, and suddenly it becomes competent non-evil vs dumb, and competent non evil will win.
I don't think that's a fair way to look at it. How many of those candidates were in gimme districts?
His endorsement meant a lot in some places, such as the NH, PA, GA senate races, and the AZ governor. The first three lost, and Kari Lake might lose too. Those are the campaigns that need to be looked at.
Was his analysis good or not though? It's an important question to ask. Yes, Shapiro is biased to hell and back. He might also have a point.
Ben Shapiro is closer to the mindset of most of the US than most GOP media personalities, and whether he's a neocon or not, doesn't mean he's wrong about what the wider US populace wants or why the GOP so badly underpreformed.
Also, criticizing Trump is not something that makes someone a 'bad person' or means they aren't spitting facts. Shapiro's issues with Trump mostly come down to Trump's personality, not his politics, which frankly has been shown to be completely justified.
Stop acting like Trump is the only hope the Right has, and stop acting like the Right can just dismiss the majority of the electorate because they don't buy the Right's internal propaganda and do unfortunately buy a lot of MSM bullshit.
Trump is poison to the Right, when it comes to anything but the hardcore GOP, and it doesn't matter how much we may have liked/supported Trump in the past, that is the reality we are faced with now.
strunkenwhite
Well-known member
But what about the places where abortion restrictions failed? Kansans kept their Democratic governor, for example. My more immediate question, though, is How do you figure the cycle didn't favor Republicans? It was a midterm with a Democratic president. Also, I assume you're not counting court appointments when considering the consequences of 2014.
I have to admit, if you had asked me to think of reasons why someone would vote against DeSantis, "he's too environmentalist" would not have been on that list.
Circle of Willis
Well-known member
I consider modern Kansas to be a red-leaning (hence the state legislature and Senate results) but still purpler state than, say, Oklahoma - having had about as many Democratic governors since ~1990 as Republicans (4 including the incumbent, compared to only half as many Dems as Republicans in the same timeframe in OK's case). So it would definitely fall under the same umbrella as North Carolina, which I mentioned.
A lot of Republican seats were up this cycle, 21 which they had to defend compared to 14 Democratic seats IIRC. Compare the amounts of red & blue on the 2022 map to 2018 and 2024 for example, two cycles which I consider to be more favorable to the GOP.
I will respectfully disagree. Shaprio has a pretty bad track record of calling these things. I like the guy and I listen to him, but I don't often agree with him and his predictions rarely pan out. Mastriano and Oz weren't defeated due to Trumps endorsements. He's the only reason they were competitive at all. The GOP, mainly Mitch McConnell essentially starved their campaigns of money, resources and support. Instead, the GOP Establishment poured Money into a Republican vs Republican battle in Alaska. Essentially pouring money into Murkowsky's campaign to ensure Tshibaka didn't get the senate seat. Why? Cause Murkowsky is GOP Establishment same as McConnell and Tshibaka is the Trump endorsed candidate. McConnell is trying to shore up the establishment at the expense of the populist republican candidate. The Lunacy of it astounds me. GOP also didn't support Herschel Walker and right now...the GOP establishment is doing NOTHING to fight for Keri Lake and Blake Masters. How is it that Kattie Hobbs is counting Keri Lakes votes and slowing the process down? And how is it the GOP Establishment is NOT crying foul? I guarantee you had it been Beto in Texas and Abbot had done the same thing the MSN would be crying bloody murder, as would the Democratic Party. And they'd be right to do it. I should also point out Hershel Walker isn't out of the fight yet. This will go for a runoff and, Republicans tend to win those more often than not.
It should also be noted that in 2022 here the Republican party was playing defense more than anything else. We had I think 17 Senate seats up for grabs and successfully defended 16 of them. Come 2024 those positions will be reversed and it'll be the Democrats trying to defend against a Republican insurgence.
Trump isn't Poison to the Republican Party. He's the one who has inspired us to win and continues to do so. DeSantis is a rising star in the party and many see him as the rightful successor to Trump when its all said and done.
Its really hard to walk around with a bunch of knives in your back.
None of which addresses the point I was trying to make, and that is that Trump is poison outside the hardcore GOP base; Libertarians and Independents aren't breaking for him anymore, and likely only did in 2016 because Hillary was just that bad.
Stop thinking about Trump in terms of how much his base likes him and how much the establishment GOP doesn't, and start thinking in terms of how he looks to those outside the GOP base, who are swing voters he can easily turn off.
Also, do not pretend Trump hasn't shot himself and his base in the feet repeatedly with his pettiness and ego'; his beef with DeSantis is all Trump, not media astro-turfing.
You may not agree with Shaprio, but I can garuantee you he and his views are close to the US mainstream than most media personalities on the Right, and just because you don't agree with him does not make him worng about his assesment of the general US populace.
It's also hard to walk when you've shot both your own feet, which Trump has done repeatedly.
See, this right here is exactly the problem! They wouldn't have been the general candidate without Trump's help, and the Republicans could have won. Trump helped just enough to fuck over everyone.
And again, the only senate seats defended were those in red or fairly red states, other than in Florida (which was DeSantis).
He's great in red areas, dogshit outside of them. There were a number of winnable/go both ways states this election, and Trump helped in none of them. Those are the ones that matter.
I've totally countered your points. You just fail to acknowledge them. None of the candidates who ran away from Trump won. None of them. The Republican candidates didn't win because Ron DeSantis endorsed them. They won because of Trump. DeSantis just doesn't have the reach yet that Trump does. He is still building his Resume and powerbase by being effective in Florida, and by all accounts he's doing a magnificent job. I acknowledge DeSantis as the future leader of the party. But that day isn't today or even 2024.
As for Ben Shapiro, he's buying into the MSM argument. But he's never denied being a Never Trumper NeoConservative. His big thing that he wants is a war with Iran to secure Israel. Now, I've got nothing against the Israelis, Beautiful country and wonderful people. Love em, almost married one. But the bottom line is Shapiro is a war hawk who wants to use American Military power and spill American blood to ensure Israel is safe. He wants a war. Trump was a peacemaker, and was more than willing to make peace to ensure stability the world over. He was not willing to make war with Iran to enforce an American led neo-globalist hegemony. That made him an enemy to the NeoConservative Warhawks, of which Ben Shapiro is their lead cheerleader.