Alternate History Ideas and Discussion

[WolfBear]

I must admit that I find the earlier, not-actually-intended POD to be the far more interesting one. I believe the best way to achieve it is for the Chongzhen Emperor to heed the advice to evacuate his court from the North. This would assure continuity of government for the Ming, and deprive the Qing of the court bureaucracy that they basically got handed on a silver platter (and eagerly co-opted) in OTL.

Since the Chongzhen Emperor himself would be seen as losing most of the empire, it's probably best if he evacuates most of the court to the South, to be under the leadership of Crown Prince Zhu Cilang, while he personally remains in the North. There, he still commits suicide, and thereby pays for his failures. In OTL, the Qing (with the Crown Prince also dead) claimed to actually be "avenging the Emperor" against various upstarts and pretenders. This allowed them to sway many erstwhile Ming loyalists to their side.

In this ATL scenario, Zhu Cilang will have the not-seriously-contested claim of avenging his father, painting the Qing as the ultimate foe. The fact that Zhu Cilang survives and prsides over the Ming court not only gives the Ming that advantage (and deprives the Qing of it), but also gives a legitimacy to this ATL Southern Ming that was lacking in OTL. There is no question who the new Emperor will be, and the Ming loyalists will have a clear rallying point. There will also be more of them, in this situation.

All of this may well be enough to prevent a Qing conquest of the South, thus leading to a divided realm. How long that division lasts may be called into question, but it's far from impossible that it becomes a lasting situation.

Would China starting from the 1600s in this TL be comparable to what it was in the late Middle Ages when it was partitioned between the Jin (North) and the Song (South)?

Jin–Song Wars - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Skallagrim]

Would China starting from the 1600s in this TL be comparable to what it was in the late Middle Ages when it was partitioned between the Jin (North) and the Song (South)?

Jin–Song Wars - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Yes.

If we look at this map here--

--then we may tentatively assume it to be a realistic outcome that a bolstered Southern Ming overcomes the hopeless Xi and annexes the South-Easternmost reaches of Shun, thus becoming the Realm of the Yangtze River and Lands Southward. Conversely, the Qing will take by far the most of Shun, and subdue unruly regions to the West, thus becoming the Realm of the Yellow River and Lands Northward.

 

[WolfBear]

Yes.

If we look at this map here--

--then we may tentatively assume it to be a realistic outcome that a bolstered Southern Ming overcomes the hopeless Xi and annexes the South-Easternmost reaches of Shun, thus becoming the Realm of the Yangtze River and Lands Southward. Conversely, the Qing will take by far the most of Shun, and subdue unruly regions to the West, thus becoming the Realm of the Yellow River and Lands Northward.

Very interesting!

BTW, this is very off-topic, but I found it very interesting how even in Song China, Chinese were already very knowledgeable about their country's geography:

Song dynasty - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Lord Sovereign]

In terms of European interference in this timeline, whilst I do think more territory would be hoovered up, what happened in India would be difficult to happen here. This would be a divided China between two very centralised bureaucracies in possession of huge armies, not so much a dynastic implosion and following warlord era as it was with the Mughal Empire.

 

[Earl]

Yes.

If we look at this map here--

--then we may tentatively assume it to be a realistic outcome that a bolstered Southern Ming overcomes the hopeless Xi and annexes the South-Easternmost reaches of Shun, thus becoming the Realm of the Yangtze River and Lands Southward. Conversely, the Qing will take by far the most of Shun, and subdue unruly regions to the West, thus becoming the Realm of the Yellow River and Lands Northward.

Mmm, looking at this: I don’t think the Europeans can actually do their divide and conquer game, mainly because you have too compact states, who can resist. In fact, ironically, this may lead to stronger states come the 19th Century. War equals need for better weapons, need for better weapons equals more trade with the west, more trade with the west equals guns (yay) and economic/political development leading to stronger states playing a hand in politics.

I also suspect in this TL, we wouldn’t be talking about the breakup of China. Rather The Ming (who control most of Han China) would just view themselves as the Chinese and the Qing would be viewed as the Manchus. The upper areas is an area for 20th century nationalist fantasies to talk about retaking.

 

[Lord Sovereign]

Mmm, looking at this: I don’t think the Europeans can actually do their divide and conquer game, mainly because you have too compact states, who can resist. In fact, ironically, this may lead to stronger states come the 19th Century. War equals need for better weapons, need for better weapons equals more trade with the west, more trade with the west equals guns (yay) and economic/political development leading to stronger states playing a hand in politics.

Necessity is the mother of all invention after all. They might not quite be able to do what Japan did, but a China that is forced to modernise is still in a far better position.

 

[ATP]

This option has some interesting implications. The US is more deeply embroiled in colonialism by participating in a partition of China and is less able to push anticolonialism. With China already partitioned Japan has clear lines it can't cross and is unlikely to give an excuse for embargo. A Japan that doesn't have to take Singapore and the Dutch East Indies for rubber and oil is a Japan at peace with England and the Netherlands. A post-Qing partition could be as early as 1912 or 1913. This may mean that Tsarist Russia is busy in the East and either lets Serbia sleep in the bed it made or sends clear enough signals that someone sits on the Black Hand and there is no Sarajevo assassination plot. A delayed Great War gives time for Anglo-Russian relations to sour and Anglo-German relations to recover. It's also time for Russia to less violent revolution in which something like a general strike leads to a move to constitutionalism or a single revolution after which a more moderate socialist government remains in power because Kerensky or someone like him can't set things up for a second Red revolution by insisting on staying in an unpopular war. Delaying the War also delays the interwar economic issues which may impact FDR's campaign and may prevent Wilson from running for reelection on an anti-war platform which provides another chance to keep that particular anti-Japanese bigot out of the White House further reducing the likelihood of an embargo that drives Japan to war with the non-Russian colonial powers.

If WWI does happen on schedule from a pre-war partition of China Japan probably gets most of Germany's slice because they're there while the others just have colonial forces to grab German colonies with. Mao is probably dead in a gulag in this scenario. I don't know where in China he's from or where the partition lines would be, but when Russia goes Red it'll take it's Chinese territory with it and Communists from other parts of China will make their way there. And if they're charismatic enough to be threatening get purged by Stalin. The nail that sticks up gets brutally murdered. Having colonial borders that are more hospitable than the Himalayas or northern Afghanistan will make it both easier and more urgent for the non-Russian Entente powers to intervene in the Russian Civil War. If they can't prop up a White in the East they can annex parts to their own holdings. This give the IJA a purpose that will help it secure funding against the IJN, further promoting peace between Japan, Britain, and the Netherlands.

An interwar partition means the USSR exists, which means only that Japanese adventurism in China is within bounds that everyone has agreed upon and this is just a "no Pacific War" WWII timeline. Except that the USA is culpable for colonialism and can't as easily stab the British and French Empires in the back the way it could when it only had the Philippines which could be blamed on Spain in internal propaganda.

Indeed.If WW2 happened,it would be only in Europe - or,in Asia against soviets and in Europe against germans.

 

[WolfBear]

Necessity is the mother of all invention after all. They might not quite be able to do what Japan did, but a China that is forced to modernise is still in a far better position.

Could we see eventual Ming-Japanese competition over Qing northern China in the industrial age?

 

[Lord Sovereign]

Could we see eventual Ming-Japanese competition over Qing northern China in the industrial age?

I could definitely see Japan meddling in China all the same, as the nascent island empire would have a lot to gain out of it. The young Imperial Japanese Navy could be a tie-breaker between Qing and Ming.

Bearing in mind that an industrialised China on its doorstep provides even more incentive for Japan to modernise.

 

[WolfBear]

I could definitely see Japan meddling in China all the same, as the nascent island empire would have a lot to gain out of it. The young Imperial Japanese Navy could be a tie-breaker between Qing and Ming.

Bearing in mind that an industrialised China on its doorstep provides even more incentive for Japan to modernise.

Would be interesting to see an industrialized and modernized Japan trying to play off both sides in China against each other.

 

[WolfBear]

'AHC: A surviving Novgorod Republic'

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

McCarthy looks like a pretty good alternative, remarkable that she was passed over for Vander Zalm and then Johnston historically tbh.

I didn't say Manning was a disaster, just that he wouldn't be able to appeal to voters in Ontario and the rest of the East. My understanding is that by the '90s he had too strongly entrenched his reputation as a partisan for Western interests - notably despite increasing their seat count in the '97 election, Reform actually got completely shut out of Ontario (where they lost their solitary seat, Simcoe-Grey, even before the election proper due to it being split into two additional ridings and their incumbent MP not standing for re-election) and Quebec despite putting in their most serious push in both provinces, while even Day at least did a little better in 2000. Reform/the Alliance can't form government without managing a breakthrough in Ontario and the provinces still further east, and unfortunately Manning doesn't seem to be the guy who could pull it off.

Just how popular is Day in Ontario and Quebec? Because I'm not sure how strong is the Canadian Alliance in those areas. I also wonder if a different outcome of the Meech Lake Accord also means someone like John Turmel would eventually shed his perennial status and actually win a seat if he ran as part of the Canadian Alliance.

 

[Skallagrim]

This makes European interaction come a lot earlier and more interestingly. Spain will certainly come for God and Gold, as will the Dutch (well more on the Gold) and eventually the Brits and French. I’d imagine it be like India (everyone plays them off against eachother…until there the ones being played off).

In terms of European interference in this timeline, whilst I do think more territory would be hoovered up, what happened in India would be difficult to happen here. This would be a divided China between two very centralised bureaucracies in possession of huge armies, not so much a dynastic implosion and following warlord era as it was with the Mughal Empire.

Mmm, looking at this: I don’t think the Europeans can actually do their divide and conquer game, mainly because you have too compact states, who can resist. In fact, ironically, this may lead to stronger states come the 19th Century. War equals need for better weapons, need for better weapons equals more trade with the west, more trade with the west equals guns (yay) and economic/political development leading to stronger states playing a hand in politics.

Necessity is the mother of all invention after all. They might not quite be able to do what Japan did, but a China that is forced to modernise is still in a far better position.

Generally speaking, I don't quite expect either of the two Chinas to end up like India. Rather, think more of a more pronounced version of what happened to China in OTL-- or yes, indeed, to Japan. (Siam might be another point of comparison.) Of course, we shouldn't over-estimate the Chinese ability to just happily accept European guns & stuff, magically modernise, and then advance easily towards the status of a significant developed power. These things aren't easy, and both Chinas face serious challenges.

Without the conquest of the South, and with the Ming remaining, the Qing lack vital legitimacy. In addition, because they rule less of China, they actually end up making a relatively larger cultural contribution to the Northern realm that they do control. So it'll be easier to paint them as "foreign barbarians" (something that was an issue in OTL, and will be -- roughly speaking -- twice as big an issue in this ATL).

Meanwhile, the Ming have been diplaced from most of their empire, have been forced to abandon their capital, and are now re-constituting a functional state via emergency measures. Something that was fatally impopular in OTL, and will be survivable but still very risky in the ATL. So they'll have to navigate the needs of retaining popular support and the air of legitimacy, while still ensuring they have the funds and the military support to keep their Northern border secured.

In this context, it is almost inevitable that European interlopers will offer "assistance". Presumably, rival powers will offer it to the two Chinas, respectively. While this will give both Chinese realms access to very useful technology, it will also create a certain economic dependency. Not to mention the fact that the Europeans will no doubt demand political inflyence in return for their... generosity.

Neither will the decline of Spain and Portugal (the likely early players) offer a good chance for the Chinese realms to free themselves from European influence, since France and Britain (joined by various lesser players) will be right there to muscle their way in.

All in all, rather than colonial holdings, I think the two Chinas will be "dominated nations", along the same line as (but to a greater extent than) unified China was in OTL. If there is eventually some equivalent of a Great War and the Chinas stay out of it, that would be an excellent opportunity for them to ensure their future independence. If they are however dragged into it, they may well remain entangled in their respective European-led alliance systems for longer...

I also suspect in this TL, we wouldn’t be talking about the breakup of China. Rather The Ming (who control most of Han China) would just view themselves as the Chinese and the Qing would be viewed as the Manchus. The upper areas is an area for 20th century nationalist fantasies to talk about retaking.

The Ming would certainly paint the Qing as foreign barbarians, but in their own realm, the Qing would go to great pains to present themselves as th legitimate ruling dynasty of China-- denouncing the Ming as degenerate and corrupt figures ruling over a court of Southern barbarians. (The tendency in Northern China to regard the South as basically barbarian and in Southern China to view the North as barbarian exists even in OTL, to this very day. Nobody really believes it nowadays, but it's still a meme. Historically, to the South, the North was half-Mongol, and to the North, the South was half-Vietnamese.)

Both regimes will have maps claiming all of China for themselves, and marking the rival regime only as "provinces in rebellion"-- if even that. They might just outright pretend to be ruling the whole realm.

 

[Zyobot]

‘President Dick Cheney’.

Honestly, he’d probably be GOP Biden, except with less dementia and more heart problems.

 

[Skallagrim]

‘President Dick Cheney’.

Honestly, he’d probably be GOP Biden, except with less dementia and more heart problems.

Cheney doesn't have the public appeal to make a succesful run in his own name. The way to get him in the Oval Office is to kill off Bush. The closest call we got for that was in mid-January 2002, when Bush choked on a pretzel and lost consciousness for a few moments. In OTL, he woke up on the floor, the pretzel of doom having been dislodged when he hit the ground. In a very plausible ATL, he doesn't survive.

The result is that Cheney pushes the same neo-con agenda, probably still blundering into Iraq-- if nothing else, to try and get himself some credentials as a "decisive leader". But during the rest of the term, Afghanistan turns out not to be a "mission accomplished", and any adventure in Iraq will be divisive.

So the Democrats win in 2004. Will Kerry still be their candidate? Impossible to tell, but it's immaterial anyway: the Democratic candidate will be a safe establishment politician. They'll aim to withdraw from Afghanistan and Iraq, but using some bullshit "responsible time-table", which will be a big mess anyway, and whatever arises in post-occupation Afghanistan and Iraq wll be demonstarbly unpleasant. Meanwhile, there's still a major economic crunch in the making (its roots going back decades).

The Democrats will probably survive the 2008 election by blaming the Iraq/Afghanistan mess on Bush and Cheney, and by promising all sorts of hand-outs and bail-outs as the "solution" to the economic crash. During the next term, however, this will all prove to be very dumb and harmful. Even though the foreign wars were idiotic, the way the Democrats handled the exit strategy will get the blame for the failure in hind-sight. (In an ATL where it's never tried, the Republican hawks can keep pushing the myth of "the Surge", claiming that it would have definitely won the war if it had just been tried, you guys!) Meanwhile, the economy will go down the crapper, and the Democrat solution ("Borrow money, print money, spend money, MORE MORE MORE!") only makes things worse.

Which means the populist wave arrives in 2012 instead of 2016, and probably includes more influence from ATL analogues to the Tea Party and the Ron Paul libertarian movement. Still very much in favour of economic protectionism, but with much more hatred towards the Federal Reserve and its monetary policies as a key plank of their platform. And calls for a balanced budget amendment are going to be loud, I think.

"It took twenty years to count the votes, and Ross Perot won."

 

[Zyobot]

Like the bulk of what @Skallagrim writes, but replying to a couple points:

Cheney doesn't have the public appeal to make a succesful run in his own name. The way to get him in the Oval Office is to kill off Bush.

Yeah, I figured as much. Fortunately, riding Bush's coattails is the next best way to get around it, though speaking of which...

The closest call we got for that was in mid-January 2002, when Bush choked on a pretzel and lost consciousness for a few moments. In OTL, he woke up on the floor, the pretzel of doom having been dislodged when he hit the ground. In a very plausible ATL, he doesn't survive.

I get that Dubya was a klutz and all, but choking on a pretzel and waking up on the floor after it's been dislodged is... well, the "Dumbest way to die I can think of!" in a world where he never wakes up again is a drastic understatement, I'll say that much.

 

[Bassoe]

The closest call we got for that was in mid-January 2002, when Bush choked on a pretzel and lost consciousness for a few moments. In OTL, he woke up on the floor, the pretzel of doom having been dislodged when he hit the ground. In a very plausible ATL, he doesn't survive.

I get that Dubya was a klutz and all, but choking on a pretzel and waking up on the floor after it's been dislodged is... well, the "Dumbest way to die I can think of!" in a world where he never wakes up again is a drastic understatement, I'll say that much.

Challenge accepted. Muntadhar al-Zaidi's shoe scores a direct hit, knocking Bush over in just such a manner as to snap his neck and kill him instantly.

 

[Zyobot]

Challenge accepted. Muntadhar al-Zaidi's shoe scores a direct hit, knocking Bush over in just such a manner as to snap his neck and kill him instantly.

Ah, yeah; forget about that one. Still a dumb way to die, though, and one sure to make JFK facepalm from the afterlife.

 

[Bassoe]

Second dumbest ahistorical presidential death since the time alternatehistoryforum fed Woodrow Wilson to a shark.

The series of shark attacks along the cost of New Jersey from July 1st-12th 1916 terrorized the country and led to the deaths of 4 people by an unknown species of shark. The media frenzy changed the image of sharks from peaceful creatures too timid to attack humans to that of a ferocious man eater, always on the prowl for innocent flesh. It was while looking at a map of where the attack occurred that I realized something though.



During early July President Woodrow Wilson was vacation at Asbury Park, which you can see is right in the path of the attacks. Now, I can't find any information on if Wilson swam for fun but lets say he's out in the water at the exact wrong time and ends up being fatally attacked in full view of those on the shore. How in the world does something like that affect both pop culture and society in general? Could one possible see a near-extinction of shark's in New England caused by a hunting frenzy?

On another note the German merchant U-boat Deutschland had recently arrived in Baltimore in July 9th, causing panic among some and causing at least one writer to the New York Times to blame them for the sharks, writing


"...These sharks may have devoured human bodies in the waters of the German war zone and followed liners to this coast, or even followed the Deutschland herself, expecting the usual toll of drowning men, women, and children. This would account for their boldness and their craving for human flesh."

With the public already having the Lusitania in their minds could one see Germany blamed for the freak shark encounter?

Edit: yikes, meant to post this in "After 1900"

Just like Taft was best known for being the "fatass president who got stuck in a baththub", Wilson will be best known for being the "only president to get eaten by a shark". This will be his humiliating legacy.

You Can't Spell "William Howard Taft" Without "Fat"

OK. OK. This isn't that bad. This is not that bad. It's not.

...

This is really bad.

Let me just make sure I'm definitely ...

"NNNGGGHHH."

OK, yes, I'm definitely stuck. Shit. Shit. This is fine. Let's just- I just need to get out of here quickly, before too many people notice. I'll just ...

"Hey can someone, uh ..."

Wait, shit, who do I even call about this? Do I have ... Is there like a guy who does this? Someone whose thing this is? It is the White House, they have a guy for everything. But of course they don't have a guy for this, Bill. Why would the White House think they needed to hire a guy to get presidents unstuck from the bathtub?

Maybe my wife? Would it be less embarrassing if Helen- Oh, what am I thinking, Helen can't lift me, she doesn't have a solid core OR a strong center of gravity.

"Baby, you know I love you, but sturdy and load-bearing you are not."

So frail and ghostly. I knew I shoulda married her sister. Eleanor. Eleanor could do it. That is the kind of woman who could lift a president out of tub if I ever saw one, I'll tell you that. Eleanor had the haunches of an Olympic bear-wrestler.

I need to get out of this fucking tub.

This is really bad. And, shit, well, this is it. You know this is the thing everyone's going to remember, right, Bill? The only thing. This is absolutely, without question, the only thing about President Taft that people will remember. All of my policies? Forgotten. Out the window. Down the drai- aw, shit. I was worried the only thing people would remember about me would be that I was the fattest president. But, no, now I'll be the president who was so fat that he was made prisoner by a god damned piece of furniture. That's what they'll all remember.

Unless ... I gotta- I just gotta do something even more impressive. Build lots of orphanages or kill ... someone. Someone everybody hates. Or- I got it! When I leave the presidency, I will become Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. No other president has done that, it'll be my thing. Hell yes, I'm going to do the crap out of that. And then a hundred years from now, all the history students will say, "Oh, right, Big Bill Taft, he was the only man in history to be both the President and a Supreme Court judge, right? So impressive!" Yes. That's what they'll all remember.

Who the hell are you kidding, Bill? You're the president who's so fat you made a diaper out of a bathtub. William Howard Taft. More like William Howard Bath. Or ... Or William How-Fat-Do-You-Need-To-Be-To-Get-Stuck-In-A Bath? I bet they're going to use me as a measuring test for bathtubs from now on. "Excuse me, do you have any larger tubs? I have three young kids, and we'd like to have them bathe together to conserve water." "Why sure, Ma'am, take a look at this tub. It's roughly one-and-a-half Tafts wide, and about a Taft-ass deep." Shit this is bad. OK, just ... just suck it up, let's just get this over with.

"Hello? Excuse me, will- Is anyone around? I'm- It's your president. Hello. I'm caught in my bathtub and I'm ... I'm the fucking president of the United States of America. Would anyone- Oh, hey, Tim, good, you're here, be a pal and- What? You're going to get more guys to help you? That's so- Yeah, fine, I guess, I'm pretty big, sure ... Fucking four!? Four guys, is that really necessary!?"

I could see this event becoming more disconnected over time. Like jokes about how he took office and immediately got eaten by a shark before he could do anything even though he would still have served most of his first term

Retrospective: Shark!(1979)

Wow, the anniversary edition blu-Ray of John Landis masterpiece "Shark!" is a feast for the eager viewer. The horror-dramatic-comedy still manages to thrill and shock after forty years.

On its face the idea of making a dark comedy about an incredibly horrific moment in American History is absurd and in bad taste, but Landis makes it work.

Relaxing at a beach resort after a stressful party convention Woodrow Wilson (Murray Hamilton) is a strutting peacock of a man, a vain, petty tyrant who delights in abusing his staff all the while delivering pious platitudes to the press.

When the President hears of the shark attacks only a few miles down the coast he figures that a mile-long swim offshore to show his fearlessness will be just the ticket to win re-election, his cabinet of cronies and hanger-ons decide that's an excellent idea, with only the no-nonsense Col. House (Robert Stack) suggesting it might not be the best idea. Of course Wilson ignores his warning so House assigns two secret service agents (Roy Schneider and John Belushi) to covertly follow the President on his swim to protect him from any nearby sharks.

We all know what happens: despite the best efforts of our two heroes Wilson is graphically torn to ribbons by the man-eater in full view of the press. The actual attack is played for sheer horror, with Landis playing the wish of the audience to see such a terrible person gone with the raw brutality of being killed by a shark.

Of course Schneider and Belushi's characters are fired, only to redeem themselves at the climax when they rescue a young boy in a creek from the man-eater and succeed in killing it, becoming heroes.

Some elements of the movie haven't aged well: the shark is obviously mechanical and the scene with Wilson casually ranting about the "inferiority of the 'n-word' race" while being attended to by black servants is more awkward and cringe now then funny.

On the other hand the rest of the movie is as much of a masterpiece as it's reputation suggests: Schneider's straight-man performance contrasts perfectly with Belushi's wildness, the funny bits are hilarious and the scary bits still terrifying.

Even historians have made their peace with the movie, most now accepting it as a good piece very loosely based on history. Sure, there are occasionally grumbles from scholars that the movie's version of Wilson has replaced the historical one in the public imagination (No, Wilson did not really say "Our great white nation must be safe from great white sharks") but when even the Woodrow Wilson Memorial in New Jersey hosts a screening and round table discussion with historians it's time to drop the crusade against it

With John Landis tragic death in a helicopter crash shortly after release it's a shame we never got to see what else he had up his sleeve but with his one film he cemented himself into movie and American history.

 

[Zyobot]

Second dumbest ahistorical presidential death since the time alternatehistoryforum fed Woodrow Wilson to a shark.

ATL history memes be like: