Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[Arch Dornan]

And here I thought that this empty space was reserved for Mother's name ...

It's fine to be cocky but he becomes fair game in a warzone.

 

[Aldarion]

It is entirely detached from reality, as it requires misinterpreting statements by Putin alone as the sole evidence for the claim. Putin's definitive statement, which often gets cited only in part for obvious political reasons nowadays, was:

"Anyone who doesn't regret the passing of the Soviet Union has no heart. Anyone who wants it restored has no brains."
Far from a ringing endorsement of the USSR, and helps explain what he means with other statements in following years. The collapse of the USSR was, indeed, a geopolitical disaster and humanitarian tragedy; excess mortality in the 1990s was on the order of 11 million in Russia and tens of millions passed into poverty in a Depression-level collapse of conditions that didn't start to recover until the 2000s.

And that collapse will not have happened if USSR had not been created in the first place.

But when you look at the collection of the statements he has made, it paints a rather more complex picture than what you have cited:

Private Site

historyandwar.org

“I made a decision to conduct a special military operation. Its goal is to protect people who have been abused by the genocide of the Kyiv regime for eight years. And to this end, we will strive for the demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine, as well as bringing to justice those who committed numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including citizens of the Russian Federation.”

Article by Vladimir Putin ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“

en.kremlin.ru

I would like to emphasise again that Ukraine is not just a neighbouring country for us. It is an inalienable part of our own history, culture and spiritual space. These are our comrades, those dearest to us – not only colleagues, friends and people who once served together, but also relatives, people bound by blood, by family ties.

Since time immemorial, the people living in the south-west of what has historically been Russian land have called themselves Russians and Orthodox Christians. This was the case before the 17th century, when a portion of this territory rejoined the Russian state, and after.

It seems to us that, generally speaking, we all know these facts, that this is common knowledge. Still, it is necessary to say at least a few words about the history of this issue in order to understand what is happening today, to explain the motives behind Russia’s actions and what we aim to achieve.

So, I will start with the fact that modern Ukraine was entirely created by Russia or, to be more precise, by Bolshevik, Communist Russia. This process started practically right after the 1917 revolution, and Lenin and his associates did it in a way that was extremely harsh on Russia – by separating, severing what is historically Russian land. Nobody asked the millions of people living there what they thought.

It seems that the Communist Party leaders were convinced that they had created a solid system of government and that their policies had settled the ethnic issue for good. But falsification, misconception, and tampering with public opinion have a high cost. The virus of nationalist ambitions is still with us, and the mine laid at the initial stage to destroy state immunity to the disease of nationalism was ticking. As I have already said, the mine was the right of secession from the Soviet Union.

In the mid-1980s, the increasing socioeconomic problems and the apparent crisis of the planned economy aggravated the ethnic issue, which essentially was not based on any expectations or unfulfilled dreams of the Soviet peoples but primarily the growing appetites of the local elites.

This immediately raises many questions. The first is really the main one: why was it necessary to appease the nationalists, to satisfy the ceaselessly growing nationalist ambitions on the outskirts of the former empire? What was the point of transferring to the newly, often arbitrarily formed administrative units – the union republics – vast territories that had nothing to do with them? Let me repeat that these territories were transferred along with the population of what was historically Russia.

Moreover, these administrative units were de facto given the status and form of national state entities. That raises another question: why was it necessary to make such generous gifts, beyond the wildest dreams of the most zealous nationalists and, on top of all that, give the republics the right to secede from the unified state without any conditions?

At first glance, this looks absolutely incomprehensible, even crazy. But only at first glance. There is an explanation. After the revolution, the Bolsheviks’ main goal was to stay in power at all costs, absolutely at all costs. They did everything for this purpose: accepted the humiliating Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, although the military and economic situation in Kaiser Germany and its allies was dramatic and the outcome of the First World War was a foregone conclusion, and satisfied any demands and wishes of the nationalists within the country.

It seems that the Communist Party leaders were convinced that they had created a solid system of government and that their policies had settled the ethnic issue for good. But falsification, misconception, and tampering with public opinion have a high cost. The virus of nationalist ambitions is still with us, and the mine laid at the initial stage to destroy state immunity to the disease of nationalism was ticking. As I have already said, the mine was the right of secession from the Soviet Union.

The Future Of The Past: Ukraine Pushes De-Communization, Amid Russian Protests

Ukraine has adopted a raft of de-communization laws aimed at asserting control over the country's understanding of its 20th-century past. Moscow, however, sees the move as an impermissible assault on Russia's own self-image.

www.rferl.org

Moscow's reaction to Ukraine's de-communization initiative has been as harshly negative as was its reaction to past calls in Ukraine to join the European Union or NATO. A Russian Foreign Ministry statement on April 10 described the new laws as part of "an accelerating struggle against the heroic past of the people of Ukraine."

"By labeling the period from 1917-1991 as a period of struggle for the independence of Ukraine and declaring the 'communist totalitarian regime" of that period to be 'criminal' and 'waging a policy of state terror,' the present Ukrainian authorities are trying to erase from the memory of millions of Ukrainians the pages of the real history of Ukraine in the 20th century and its steady development as part of the Soviet Union," the statement adds.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on April 14 that the new laws are "fatal" for the Minsk process to regulate the war in eastern Ukraine between Kyiv and Russia-backed separatists.

In the view of Putin's Kremlin, the communist past is a time of economic progress, social order, and -- most importantly -- victory over Nazi Germany. For a growing number of Ukrainians, it is a time of famine, terror, and the repression of Ukrainian national ambitions.

So it seems that what he actually dislikes is the end of the Russian Empire as a unitary state and the attempted federalization under the Soviet Union. But he would still clearly prefer a Soviet Union over the current situation.

Or you can instead look at enacted policies, governmental structures and other, rational objective metrics to show its false. If statements alone are your benchmark, you might find it useful to review how Putin this year has consistently said the forces of the free market must be unleashed in response to the Western sanctions. Again, not a doctrinaire Marxist tenet, eh? Even your own articles note this:

In the address, Putin also tried to boost business confidence in the nation, reassuring skittish investors that rules governing the privatization of state property and tax collection would not be constantly shifting. Putin said tax inspectors do not have the right to “terrorize business,” and he called on the government to lower the time limit for challenging the results of past privatization deals from 10 years to three.
Doesn't sound like five year plans to me.

Under "Soviet ideology" I meant the Soviet imperialism, not their economic system. So I probably should have said the "Soviet strategic thought", their strategic logic which led them to allying with Nazi Germany and partitioning Poland.

 

[ATP]

I don't agree with this on any accounts. That you unironically believe they are still Soviets is something I still don't get, either. It just seems really detached from reality.

You do not agree with reality on anything depending current war and soviet state.
Germans payd for soviet army with NS1 and NS2.
Germans trained soviet army in german build training hub.
Germans refused to send any real aid for first 8 months of conflict.
Germans are blocking EU help for Ukraine,and sanctions for soviets.
They did everything to help Moscov which they could with american troops on their soil.
They were,are and would be soviet allies.

And why soviets are soviets,not long dead russians? russian army had honour,soviets do what kgb want.
russiant farmers loved their land,soviet peasants do not care.
russian merchants made money in honest way,soviet kgb mafia need mafia system to do so.

Russia was my nation old enemy - but,except vices,it had some valour,too.Soviets have none of it.
So please,do not insult my nation long dead enemies,comparing them to soviet thugs.They do not deserved it.

 

[WolfBear]

I wonder if Ukraine could experience a post-war baby boom after the end of this war. I know that parts of western Ukraine had slightly above replacement-level fertility right before the Soviet collapse:

If Ukraine as a whole can have that kind of TFR (or even slightly higher than that, such as 2.5) for at least a couple of decades after the end of this war (this war will give most Ukrainians a western Ukrainian mentality, frankly), then it could be enough to make up for Ukraine's mass emigration to the EU as a result of this war, which will likely still benefit Ukraine due to the huge amount of remittances that the Ukrainian diaspora in the EU will send back to their relatives and friends who are still in Ukraine.

 

[History Learner]

And that collapse will not have happened if USSR had not been created in the first place.

Sure, but you can say that about every other nation and Empire in history. We don't have time machines, so you play with the hand you're dealt.

But when you look at the collection of the statements he has made, it paints a rather more complex picture than what you have cited:

Every single one of these statements is attacking the Bolsheviks, not praising them, and for good reason:

So it seems that what he actually dislikes is the end of the Russian Empire as a unitary state and the attempted federalization under the Soviet Union. But he would still clearly prefer a Soviet Union over the current situation.

Not even Ukrainian Nationalist historians take this tact:

So does Vladimir Putin want to re-establish the Soviet Union, as is occasionally suggested today? Not really. His goal is rather to reinstate or maintain the Kremlin’s control over the former Soviet space more efficiently by creating dependencies, preferably ruled by autocrats, in place of the former Soviet republics — an imperial power structure with him as the ruler of rulers at the top.​

Under "Soviet ideology" I meant the Soviet imperialism, not their economic system. So I probably should have said the "Soviet strategic thought", their strategic logic which led them to allying with Nazi Germany and partitioning Poland.

If you've shorn it of Soviet ideology, how is it still Soviet strategic thought? You cite the Molotov Pact, but seem to forget the Russian Empire previously followed the same tact by engaging in partitions of Poland with Austria and Prussia both; was Frederick the Great a Nazi and Catherine a good Bolshevik? Really, Putin's definitive statement on Soviet Communism can be derived from his opening speech of the war:

"Now grateful descendants have demolished monuments to Lenin in Ukraine. This is what they call de-communization. Do you want de-communization? Well, this quite suits us. But you must not stop halfway. We are ready to show you what genuine de-communization means for Ukraine," Putin said in his address to the nation over the situation in Ukraine’s southeast.​

​

The modern Ukraine was entirely created by Communist Russia, Russian President said. "The modern Ukraine was entirely and completely created by Russia, or rather, the Bolshevik, Communist Russia," the head of state said.​

​

"This process started almost immediately after the 1917 Revolution; Lenin and his associates did it in a way, very brutal towards Russia itself - by separating, alienating parts of Russia’s own historic territories," Putin added.​

Again, nothing but scorn for Lenin, Communism and the Bolsheviks.

 

[ShadowArxxy]

Okay, so your position is that Ukraine has no right to exist "because the USSR did it", and Russia has some sort of manifest destiny right to forcibly reconquer all territory formerly claimed by the Russian Empire, starting with Ukraine and no doubt next Poland and Finland?

After all, the 26th Article of the Fundamental Law of the Empire of Russia quite explicitly stated, that, "With the Imperial Russian throne are indivisible the Kingdom of Poland and Grand Principality of Finland".

 

[Zachowon]

Should we also add in that Alaska was apart of Russia therefore Russia has the right to invade Alaska?

 

[ShadowArxxy]

Should we also add in that Alaska was apart of Russia therefore Russia has the right to invade Alaska?

Maybe that's okay because the Russian Empire sold it to the United States, not the Soviet Union.

 

[Aldarion]

Sure, but you can say that about every other nation and Empire in history. We don't have time machines, so you play with the hand you're dealt.

Difference is that USSR was basically predestined to collapse, although that was not obvious at the time as socialism was still a new experiment.

If you've shorn it of Soviet ideology, how is it still Soviet strategic thought? You cite the Molotov Pact, but seem to forget the Russian Empire previously followed the same tact by engaging in partitions of Poland with Austria and Prussia both; was Frederick the Great a Nazi and Catherine a good Bolshevik? Really, Putin's definitive statement on Soviet Communism can be derived from his opening speech of the war:

"Now grateful descendants have demolished monuments to Lenin in Ukraine. This is what they call de-communization. Do you want de-communization? Well, this quite suits us. But you must not stop halfway. We are ready to show you what genuine de-communization means for Ukraine," Putin said in his address to the nation over the situation in Ukraine’s southeast.The modern Ukraine was entirely created by Communist Russia, Russian President said. "The modern Ukraine was entirely and completely created by Russia, or rather, the Bolshevik, Communist Russia," the head of state said."This process started almost immediately after the 1917 Revolution; Lenin and his associates did it in a way, very brutal towards Russia itself - by separating, alienating parts of Russia’s own historic territories," Putin added.
Again, nothing but scorn for Lenin, Communism and the Bolsheviks.

Partition of Poland was actually envisioned by Frederick the Great, in order to maintain the balance of power between the three Empires following the Russo-Ottoman war. I am not sure you can really use it as an example of Russian strategic thought. Though Russian Empire certainly was an expansionist power.

Also, what I am reading from Putin's speech is that he equates de-communization to Nazism, and that destruction of Lenin's monuments in Ukraine is somehow ungrateful and a proof that Nazis are ruling there. He also says that Ukraine was created by the Soviet Union, which is wrong, but he uses it to justify invasion - basically, "if you have rejected Communism, you have no right to exist". The only scorn I see is for the Soviet federalism.

 

[ATP]

Sure, but you can say that about every other nation and Empire in history. We don't have time machines, so you play with the hand you're dealt.



Every single one of these statements is attacking the Bolsheviks, not praising them, and for good reason:





Not even Ukrainian Nationalist historians take this tact:

So does Vladimir Putin want to re-establish the Soviet Union, as is occasionally suggested today? Not really. His goal is rather to reinstate or maintain the Kremlin’s control over the former Soviet space more efficiently by creating dependencies, preferably ruled by autocrats, in place of the former Soviet republics — an imperial power structure with him as the ruler of rulers at the top.​

If you've shorn it of Soviet ideology, how is it still Soviet strategic thought? You cite the Molotov Pact, but seem to forget the Russian Empire previously followed the same tact by engaging in partitions of Poland with Austria and Prussia both; was Frederick the Great a Nazi and Catherine a good Bolshevik? Really, Putin's definitive statement on Soviet Communism can be derived from his opening speech of the war:

"Now grateful descendants have demolished monuments to Lenin in Ukraine. This is what they call de-communization. Do you want de-communization? Well, this quite suits us. But you must not stop halfway. We are ready to show you what genuine de-communization means for Ukraine," Putin said in his address to the nation over the situation in Ukraine’s southeast.​

​

The modern Ukraine was entirely created by Communist Russia, Russian President said. "The modern Ukraine was entirely and completely created by Russia, or rather, the Bolshevik, Communist Russia," the head of state said.​

​

"This process started almost immediately after the 1917 Revolution; Lenin and his associates did it in a way, very brutal towards Russia itself - by separating, alienating parts of Russia’s own historic territories," Putin added.​

Again, nothing but scorn for Lenin, Communism and the Bolsheviks.

He is attacking genocider lenin,but praising genocider sralin.If he really was russian,then he would praise only tsars.

And,Crime of Partition was Catherine the whore mistake.She controlled entire Poland,and eventually lost 1/3 to germans.
Frederick the thief baited her after her mistake with provoking polish Confederacy in 1768.
As a result,tsar must fight german Empire in 1914,and lost power and life.

And,there is no more russians there - all becouse of Partitions.

 

[ShadowArxxy]

Also, what I am reading from Putin's speech is that he equates de-communization to Nazism, and that destruction of Lenin's monuments in Ukraine is somehow ungrateful and a proof that Nazis are ruling there. He also says that Ukraine was created by the Soviet Union, which is wrong, but he uses it to justify invasion - basically, "if you have rejected Communism, you have no right to exist". The only scorn I see is for the Soviet federalism.

Putin isn't completely wrong there; he's referring to how the Russian Empire was thought of as a unitary nation with even foreign colonial conquests such as Finland and Poland described as being inseparably assimilated into Russia, as opposed to the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics where the SSRs were nominally equal semi-independent nations. On paper, Russia wasn't even supposed to be "first among equals', although of course in practice Russia was all-powerful over the others.

Edit: And no, Putin is *not* saying, "If you have rejected Communism, you have no right to exist." He's saying, "Ukraine has never had a right to exist, it's always been part of Russia regardless of the SSRs established by the Soviet Union."

 

[ATP]

Putin isn't completely wrong there; he's referring to how the Russian Empire was thought of as a unitary nation with even foreign colonial conquests such as Finland and Poland described as being inseparably assimilated into Russia, as opposed to the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics where the SSRs were nominally equal semi-independent nations. On paper, Russia wasn't even supposed to be "first among equals', although of course in practice Russia was all-powerful over the others.

Edit: And no, Putin is *not* saying, "If you have rejected Communism, you have no right to exist." He's saying, "Ukraine has never had a right to exist, it's always been part of Russia regardless of the SSRs established by the Soviet Union."

Rather "Ukraine do not exist,we are liberating poor russians from nazi occupation"
If he really win in two weeks,it would fly,and nobody would care about millions of genocided there.

 

[WolfBear]

Sure, but you can say that about every other nation and Empire in history. We don't have time machines, so you play with the hand you're dealt.



Every single one of these statements is attacking the Bolsheviks, not praising them, and for good reason:





Not even Ukrainian Nationalist historians take this tact:

So does Vladimir Putin want to re-establish the Soviet Union, as is occasionally suggested today? Not really. His goal is rather to reinstate or maintain the Kremlin’s control over the former Soviet space more efficiently by creating dependencies, preferably ruled by autocrats, in place of the former Soviet republics — an imperial power structure with him as the ruler of rulers at the top.​

If you've shorn it of Soviet ideology, how is it still Soviet strategic thought? You cite the Molotov Pact, but seem to forget the Russian Empire previously followed the same tact by engaging in partitions of Poland with Austria and Prussia both; was Frederick the Great a Nazi and Catherine a good Bolshevik? Really, Putin's definitive statement on Soviet Communism can be derived from his opening speech of the war:

"Now grateful descendants have demolished monuments to Lenin in Ukraine. This is what they call de-communization. Do you want de-communization? Well, this quite suits us. But you must not stop halfway. We are ready to show you what genuine de-communization means for Ukraine," Putin said in his address to the nation over the situation in Ukraine’s southeast.​

​

The modern Ukraine was entirely created by Communist Russia, Russian President said. "The modern Ukraine was entirely and completely created by Russia, or rather, the Bolshevik, Communist Russia," the head of state said.​

​

"This process started almost immediately after the 1917 Revolution; Lenin and his associates did it in a way, very brutal towards Russia itself - by separating, alienating parts of Russia’s own historic territories," Putin added.​

Again, nothing but scorn for Lenin, Communism and the Bolsheviks.

It's quite interesting that Putin is a man who was made by the Soviet system but who is also its critic due to it being too generous towards ethnic minorities:

Vladimir Putin accuses Lenin of placing a 'time bomb' under Russia

Russian president blames revolutionary’s federalism for break up of Soviet Union and creating ethnic tension in region

www.theguardian.com

 

[ShadowArxxy]

The "generosity" of Russia here was an attempt to assimilate those ethnic minorities into accepting Russian cultural and political hegemony, and the argument that ethnic Russians "didn't get their own Communist Party" is absurd considering that the SSRs had no *meaningful* independence and the only Communist Party that actually mattered was the exclusively Russian Central Committee.

In my opinion, one can at least give the Soviet Union credit for understanding that conquered populations needed to have their actual loyalty in some way earned by "their new nation", not just declared on paper by the Tsar.

 

[WolfBear]

In my opinion, one can at least give the Soviet Union credit for understanding that conquered populations needed to have their actual loyalty in some way earned by "their new nation", not just declared on paper by the Tsar.

This is why they have mostly developed a Sovok identity by 1991 in addition to their local, national identities.

 

[ShadowArxxy]

This is why they have mostly developed a Sovok identity by 1991 in addition to their local, national identities.

I think it would have worked much better if the SSRs *actually had* a degree of independence like U.S. states, but then again, *everything* about the Soviet system would have worked better if it was done in good faith, which very little of it was.

 

[WolfBear]

I think it would have worked much better if the SSRs *actually had* a degree of independence like U.S. states, but then again, *everything* about the Soviet system would have worked better if it was done in good faith, which very little of it was.

For a better outcome, you'd need someone who isn't totalitarian coming to power in Russia in 1917. So, not the Bolsheviks. Maybe the (Right) Socialist Revolutionaries?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialist_Revolutionary_Party

The Left SRs I fear would be too totalitarian:

Left Socialist-Revolutionaries - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Viktor Chernov of the Right SRs was pretty good, though:

Viktor Chernov - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[History Learner]

I don't have the time tonight to reply to everything in this thread, but I wanted to quickly note two things:

1) It seems Russian offensive action is likely. Most of the attention is being fixed on the Belarus axis, but I would encourage everyone to also keep an eye on Kherson and Kharkov.

2) Intel Slava Z got arrested for running guns for SVR in Moldova to the Pro-Russian forces there; two Moldovan security officials died in the apprehension and six were wounded. Pro-Ukrainian accounts on TG will pick this up over the course of the next few days.

 

[Tiamat]

I don't have the time tonight to reply to everything in this thread, but I wanted to quickly note two things:

1) It seems Russian offensive action is likely. Most of the attention is being fixed on the Belarus axis, but I would encourage everyone to also keep an eye on Kherson and Kharkov.

2) Intel Slava Z got arrested for running guns for SVR in Moldova to the Pro-Russian forces there; two Moldovan security officials died in the apprehension and six were wounded. Pro-Ukrainian accounts on TG will pick this up over the course of the next few days.

So Russia is going on the offensive to attempt to retake territory via river crossings in winter where the vehicles alone Are struggling to get through the mud, with conscripts and attrited units??

 

[WolfBear]

I don't have the time tonight to reply to everything in this thread, but I wanted to quickly note two things:

1) It seems Russian offensive action is likely. Most of the attention is being fixed on the Belarus axis, but I would encourage everyone to also keep an eye on Kherson and Kharkov.

2) Intel Slava Z got arrested for running guns for SVR in Moldova to the Pro-Russian forces there; two Moldovan security officials died in the apprehension and six were wounded. Pro-Ukrainian accounts on TG will pick this up over the course of the next few days.

What's SVR?