I'm skeptical of a Red Wave changing anything, given a lot of these issues were present and deepened during Trump's term. However, should they get into power and maintain their current trends on seeking to establish a deal on Ukraine, they could be best.
Trump Says Ukraine Should Have Done Deal With Putin
During an appearance on the The Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Show podcast, the former president suggested that Ukraine could have "given up" the territory of Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014, or agreed not to join NATO.
The remarks came after Trump was asked for his opinion of the photoshoot Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and his wife, Olena, did for Vogue magazine, which has come under scrutiny given it took place while the country was at war.
"Probably not the greatest thing," Trump said, before adding his much repeated stance that the Russia invasion would have "never happened" if he was still president.
"He [Putin] wouldn't have done it with me. He wouldn't have done it. At a minimum, they should have made a deal," Trump said.
"They could have given up Crimea. They could have done something with NATO, 'Okay, we're not gonna join NATO,' and you'd have a country, because I believe Putin wanted to make a deal," Trump said.
"And now I don't think he wants to make a deal. I think it's much tougher to make a deal. He's blowing up the whole place. I mean, he'll take over the whole place. And it's very, very sad to watch what happened with Ukraine. Very, very sad."
Trump said that he does not believe Putin "ever intended" to start a war with Ukraine but will now "rather have the whole country, now that he started."
Republicans Begin To Sour On Aid To Ukraine
According to Morning Consult polling, while a plurality of all voters see the United States as doing “the right amount” to help Ukraine, Republican voters were the only group more likely to say the U.S. was doing “too much,” at 28%, than too little, 25%.
A June poll for the University of Maryland found that willingness to tolerate substantially or somewhat higher levels of energy prices and inflation had dropped off for Republican voters compared to overall voters in a similar March survey.
With the war near a standstill in the country’s eastern region, Ukraine will have to come back for more money eventually, and if Republicans win one or both chambers of Congress, it is by no means clear more aid will be forthcoming.
Rep. Matt Gaetz, the firebrand House Republican from Florida, said as much in a July 1 exchange with Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.). Answering a Tweet from Gallego that said “Fact is if the Republicans take over the House in 2022 US support to Ukraine will come to a halt,” Gaetz replied, “Ruben is correct.”
At a recent rally in Anchorage, Alaska, Trump riffed on the cost so far, misstating the amount spent.
“Like with Ukraine, we put up $60 billion and Europe put up $5, 6 [billion]? OK?” he said, drawing boos from the crowd. (Through early July, Congress has authorized about $54 billion for assistance not only to Ukraine, but to neighboring countries as well in response to the Russian invasion. )
And Trump is by no means alone among Republicans. On the last aid package, 11 GOP senators voted against more money, including Kentucky’s Rand Paul.
“We don’t have any money for anyone,” he told HuffPost. “I mean, we’re a trillion dollars in the hole every year. So any money that is allocated to send to a foreign country has to be borrowed first from another foreign country.”
The outlook in the Senate is arguably better for Ukraine than in the House, with McConnell and Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) presenting a mostly united front on the issue so far. In the House, where Republicans have the best chance to take over and where 57 members of the conference voted against the last aid package, the picture is murkier.
Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) is expected to get the Speaker’s gavel if the GOP picks up the handful of seats it needs in the fall to win control. But McCarthy’s grip on the conference is somewhat tenuous, which could lead him to have to make promises to secure the 218 votes needed for the speakership.
One obvious potential spoiler group: the House Freedom Caucus, which hounded the two most recent Republican speakers, John Boehner and Paul Ryan. Members of the group have complained about the Biden administration caring more about Ukraine’s borders than the U.S.-Mexico border.
Ohio Republican Jim Jordan, one of the Freedom Caucus veterans and a vote against the last aid package, said the group has yet to talk about the issue in depth.
If Republicans win, supporting further aid to Ukraine would have to be a broader, conference-wide call, he said.
“It’s got to be a conference decision and, look, we haven’t won yet. We’ve got to win,” he said.