Remember, Biden hasn't just been visibly having problems remaining articulate, he also has problems controlling his temper. Trump has an impressive ability to needle people.
I think Biden will avoid debating at all costs. Looking weak is far better than being exposed as not just partially senile, but also incapable of restraining yourself. Youtube can't do enough censoring to keep the footage of a debate from being widespread, and unless Biden actually is a lot more coherent than he's seemed, that would be the absolute death knell.
A good take. I agree it is a better strategy to avoid the debates and look weak, on the pretense of being too moral to be debate Trump, but I think there is a deeper dimension that most people don't take into account; Kenya West is technically running for President. Now, we are all probably right in assuming he can't possibly win, even if he pulls a few electors to his side.
However, if Biden doesn't show up, then Trump can still hold the debates. That changes the frame; instead of Biden looking weak to avoid looking completely incapable and incompetent, the new frame will be that Joe Biden isn't even serious about running against Trump. Because the frame as most people understand it is that whoever the people debating in September and October are, they are the two people running. So if Biden ducks out, then the natural frame is that the race is actually between Trump and West, not Trump and Biden.
The media will try and counter that narrative, but the fact is that Trump has tradition on his side; people will watch the debates. In fact, people will watch simply to see who will make the bigger ass out of themselves. The level of damage that can do to the Democrat narrative is deep. So deep in fact, that I suspect that if Trump does make this move and he does debate West, then Biden and his team will be forced to attend the other debates, while demanding special treatment. Because if they don't, no amount of voter fraud is going to save them or delay a Trump victory.
West will steal so many votes from Biden that those marginal push victories that any cheater might try to slide into the system will not make up for their losses. That's on top of the socialists not being willing to vote and rioting instead. Letting Trump set the narrative with West would be the greatest political disaster within the past 4 years for the Democrats.