I absolutely disagree. Weapon technology and communications have increased our reach, but it hasn't altered our geography in a significant way.
Yes they fucking did. Every kilometer of distance buffer is worth less now, as planes, missiles and radars have more range. You are dramatically underestimating what a shitshow for global economy and its logistics would China's expansion wars be. *No one* would be able to avoid the fallout of that.
If China were to weaponize say, the internet, to attack our infrastructure, we can literally just severe the cabal links that connects them to the rest of the world. Countries like Russia and Egypt already have an inverse in place; cutting themselves off from the web to isolate dissidents.
China lacks the projection power to threaten anyone besides its immediate neighbors and regardless of the current fashion of lone-wolf diplomacy, China is not an irrational actor.
What stops them from using third countries as gateways for cyberattacks, including those it has land or sat connections with? Are you going to cut yourself off from everyone too?
What about all the China manufactured stuff NATO countries are reliant on imports of? You think China will not try to manipulate them through that? See: COVID crisis supply woes.
Whereas, if NATO had agreed not to let Ukraine into its membership (and there was really no reason to let Ukraine in anyway) and Ukraine had been sensible about its actual strength (but was not, because it thought that it had the aegis of the West), then Ukraine would have most probably of remained under the thumb of Russia or at the worst, become a puppet state. Which is no huge loss, considering how laughably corrupt Ukraine is.
As typical of a country that was under the thumb of Russia for past decades, including Russia itself...
See the pattern here?
It would be silly for Russian Empire rebuilding to be tolerated because they made sure that the countries that used to be part of it, or are on the way there, run like shit. It's Russia's ambitions that are the problem, and successes in pursuing them are about the last thing that will prevent them from throwing their weight around more.
The Ukrainian grain, yes.
Consider where that grain was going to... It's in fact a big self-own against Russia's leftover global political pull.
From what I understand, fracking isn't all that easy to get to and the best places to do it are off the top of my head, the US, China, and Russia. The latter two lack the technological sophistication and experience to actually tap into it and even if they started today, it would probably take 10-20 years before it got any real yields. And it's not like Russia really needs it at the moment.
It's not technology, that can be imported, the bigger problem is economic viability in terms long term business/financial rights, considering the investments needed, which in case of Russia and China are "what if suddenly Putin's or Xi's pals decide to just nationalize everything". Europe meanwhile has greens and socialists. USA was about the only country that had enough pro-businesses to get someone to risk the investments, and even then greens with DNC fucked it up.
What Europe should be doing is trying to restore their military capability so THEY can deal with the Middle East. Because it's not our problem anymore. France is actually probably going to be fine, since they have some West African countries that are basically part of a hidden Neo-French Empire that has yet to awaken. Once shit hits the fan, you can expect France to change the way it does business.
But apart from them and MAYBE the Brits, all of Europe simply lacks projection power.
That's hilariously bad analysis, considering where West Africa is, how well is France doing there, and how much benefit is it getting out of that.
It's also quite illustrative of the main problems here being political, while the means are the easy thing to fix comparatively.
But their fight against jihadists in the Sahel is not over
www.economist.com
The commander of French anti-jihadist force Barkhane accused "mercenaries" from Russian group Wagner of "preying" on Mali.
www.thedefensepost.com
French President Emmanuel Macron said on Thursday he condemned a decision by Mali's rulers to suspend broadcasts by French state-funded international news outlets RFI and France 24.
www.reuters.com
They are getting elbowed out of their old "sphere of influence" by friggin Russian totally non state mercs out of all people.
Power projection is worthless if your political leadership can't use it in a smart way, in fact then it's a cost generating liability because it will be used to create messes rather than clean them (see: French involvement with Libya).
If France was using its power projection competently, then the thing flowing from Libya to the EU in large quantities would be hydrocarbons, not illegal immigrants.
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