Russia gathering forces near Ukraine Border

[BlackDragon98]

They would do not that.But if...russian are making monuments of soviets who genocided poles and was more cruel then gestapo.
Ukrainian are making monuments of UPA genociders who tortured even polish children to death.
I would not weep for any of them,becouse they both pray to monsters.

No need to worry.
You Poles will hack into their comms like a piece of cake, just like how you broke Enigma in 1939.
And then it's just a game of wait and counterattack.

 

[Marduk]

???....what colonization?

Joke because the US is starioning units there on rotation

To add to the irony of it, its doing so on invitation of a social-conservative government that hates Russia and leftist progressivism alike.

From the Russian perspective, they'll need to act relatively soon to blunt the impact of the coming demographic and economic crisis.

Russia is basically a glorified petro-state with too much of its capital tied in the hands of a few oligarchs who largely use funds to maintain their power and influence rather than using it to foster internal economic development.

There is another reason for this. Russian military prowess is slowly losing distance technology wise from the world's current leaders. Note how the vast majority of Russian hardware was built, or in case of newest pieces, at least planned and somewhat prototyped in the Soviet Union and is now being finished off... consider the time it took them to get it done, people in USA complain about F-35, but consider that PAK-FA, aka Su-57 aka Russia's 5th gen fighter is the result of a project started in late 80's as an answer to US Advanced Tactical Fighter program, which has resulted in F-22. But F-22 is in service since quite a long time, while SU-57 is still being developed, with about a dozen planes built, 2 of them serial, its first flight over a decade ago, official introduction few months ago, and its always just so close to being finished and having mass scale introduction into the air force, current ambition being 78 planes, we'll see how downscaled that gets by budget limitations.

Same story with Object 148 aka T-14 aka Armata - an implementation of some nice tech developed in work for Object 195 which was also started in the 80's, worked on until prototype stage in late 2000's and then cancelled. There were grand plans for over 2k of them in 2020, but so far there are only dozens semi-prototypes built, and slow bugfixing is being done with them, yet older T-72/T-90 variants are still being modernized, with clear intent to not replace them anytime soon.

Both of these are also being aggressively offered for export even to not so closely allied but merely friendly countries like Egypt and Algeria, showing the clear desperation for extra funding.

Cam you see the pattern? Despite trying hard with its 4% GDP military spending (while for many NATO countries mere 2% is apparently too ambitious, and USA stands at around 3.5%), and squeezing the industrial, material and technological leftovers of Soviet superpower level military ambitions for everything they are worth, they are struggling really hard to keep up, and inevitably falling behind. Much slower than expected due to these extreme efforts, but they are. What are they going to scare EU with when these thousands of modernized T-72's and their variants are going to be considered as obsolete as T-55's are now? They certainly won't have thousands of T-14's to replace them, because for that they would need to be well into building them already. They may have a few hundreds, maybe around a thousand of them at most, and they will need to split them between the west, the south ("dear allies" and possible rogue republics) and the east (very big, mean and hungry dragon). And what will they be working to supplement the Armata's with? They won't have an ex-soviet program to take as groundwork for it anymore, they will have to do that from scratch, and pay for it, which you can see how they struggle with even for building the things already.

By the size of population and economy, Russia is going to slowly trend to being merely one step, and in time a small step, above Turkey. Which is just one NATO country, with a big but not particularly advanced army, and decent, but not bleeding edge technologically defense industry. Also with nukes. But even Pakistan has nukes, and they are a step below that.

Hence, if Russia wants to throw its weight around in the west (they already have to play defensively in the east, but the south is not doing any better than them) and not get laughed out, it has to be within 10-20 years, perhaps 30 at most, while its military still can punch above its economic weight, because that advantage is decaying with every decade, and it has lost 3 decades worth of it already.

 

[Zachowon]

To add to the irony of it, its doing so on invitation of a social-conservative government that hates Russia and leftist progressivism alike.


There is another reason for this. Russian military prowess is slowly losing distance technology wise from the world's current leaders. Note how the vast majority of Russian hardware was built, or in case of newest pieces, at least planned and somewhat prototyped in the Soviet Union and is now being finished off... consider the time it took them to get it done, people in USA complain about F-35, but consider that PAK-FA, aka Su-57 aka Russia's 5th gen fighter is the result of a project started in late 80's as an answer to US Advanced Tactical Fighter program, which has resulted in F-22. But F-22 is in service since quite a long time, while SU-57 is still being developed, with about a dozen planes built, 2 of them serial, its first flight over a decade ago, official introduction few months ago, and its always just so close to being finished and having mass scale introduction into the air force, current ambition being 78 planes, we'll see how downscaled that gets by budget limitations.

Same story with Object 148 aka T-14 aka Armata - an implementation of some nice tech developed in work for Object 195 which was also started in the 80's, worked on until prototype stage in late 2000's and then cancelled. There were grand plans for over 2k of them in 2020, but so far there are only dozens semi-prototypes built, and slow bugfixing is being done with them, yet older T-72/T-90 variants are still being modernized, with clear intent to not replace them anytime soon.

Both of these are also being aggressively offered for export even to not so closely allied but merely friendly countries like Egypt and Algeria, showing the clear desperation for extra funding.

Cam you see the pattern? Despite trying hard with its 4% GDP military spending (while for many NATO countries mere 2% is apparently too ambitious, and USA stands at around 3.5%), and squeezing the industrial, material and technological leftovers of Soviet superpower level military ambitions for everything they are worth, they are struggling really hard to keep up, and inevitably falling behind. Much slower than expected due to these extreme efforts, but they are. What are they going to scare EU with when these thousands of modernized T-72's and their variants are going to be considered as obsolete as T-55's are now? They certainly won't have thousands of T-14's to replace them, because for that they would need to be well into building them already. They may have a few hundreds, maybe around a thousand of them at most, and they will need to split them between the west, the south ("dear allies" and possible rogue republics) and the east (very big, mean and hungry dragon). And what will they be working to supplement the Armata's with? They won't have an ex-soviet program to take as groundwork for it anymore, they will have to do that from scratch, and pay for it, which you can see how they struggle with even for building the things already.

By the size of population and economy, Russia is going to slowly trend to being merely one step, and in time a small step, above Turkey. Which is just one NATO country, with a big but not particularly advanced army, and decent, but not bleeding technologically defense industry. Also with nukes. But even Pakistan has nukes, and they are a step below that.

Hence, if Russia wants to throw its weight around in the west (they already have to play defensively in the east, but the south is not doing any better than them) and not get laughed out, it has to be within 10-20 years, perhaps 30 at most, while its military still can punch above its economic weight, because that advantage is decaying with every decade, and it has lost 3 decades worth of it already.

Don't sell Russia short just yet.

They still have made and produce the most efficient and power anti air system to date.

But yeah, China and Russia both have to make major decisions about conflicts by 2030 to 2040 if they want to be effective I the world power

 

[BlackDragon98]

To add to the irony of it, its doing so on invitation of a social-conservative government that hates Russia and leftist progressivism alike.


There is another reason for this. Russian military prowess is slowly losing distance technology wise from the world's current leaders. Note how the vast majority of Russian hardware was built, or in case of newest pieces, at least planned and somewhat prototyped in the Soviet Union and is now being finished off... consider the time it took them to get it done, people in USA complain about F-35, but consider that PAK-FA, aka Su-57 aka Russia's 5th gen fighter is the result of a project started in late 80's as an answer to US Advanced Tactical Fighter program, which has resulted in F-22. But F-22 is in service since quite a long time, while SU-57 is still being developed, with about a dozen planes built, 2 of them serial, its first flight over a decade ago, official introduction few months ago, and its always just so close to being finished and having mass scale introduction into the air force, current ambition being 78 planes, we'll see how downscaled that gets by budget limitations.

Same story with Object 148 aka T-14 aka Armata - an implementation of some nice tech developed in work for Object 195 which was also started in the 80's, worked on until prototype stage in late 2000's and then cancelled. There were grand plans for over 2k of them in 2020, but so far there are only dozens semi-prototypes built, and slow bugfixing is being done with them, yet older T-72/T-90 variants are still being modernized, with clear intent to not replace them anytime soon.

Both of these are also being aggressively offered for export even to not so closely allied but merely friendly countries like Egypt and Algeria, showing the clear desperation for extra funding.

Cam you see the pattern? Despite trying hard with its 4% GDP military spending (while for many NATO countries mere 2% is apparently too ambitious, and USA stands at around 3.5%), and squeezing the industrial, material and technological leftovers of Soviet superpower level military ambitions for everything they are worth, they are struggling really hard to keep up, and inevitably falling behind. Much slower than expected due to these extreme efforts, but they are. What are they going to scare EU with when these thousands of modernized T-72's and their variants are going to be considered as obsolete as T-55's are now? They certainly won't have thousands of T-14's to replace them, because for that they would need to be well into building them already. They may have a few hundreds, maybe around a thousand of them at most, and they will need to split them between the west, the south ("dear allies" and possible rogue republics) and the east (very big, mean and hungry dragon). And what will they be working to supplement the Armata's with? They won't have an ex-soviet program to take as groundwork for it anymore, they will have to do that from scratch, and pay for it, which you can see how they struggle with even for building the things already.

By the size of population and economy, Russia is going to slowly trend to being merely one step, and in time a small step, above Turkey. Which is just one NATO country, with a big but not particularly advanced army, and decent, but not bleeding technologically defense industry. Also with nukes. But even Pakistan has nukes, and they are a step below that.

Hence, if Russia wants to throw its weight around in the west (they already have to play defensively in the east, but the south is not doing any better than them) and not get laughed out, it has to be within 10-20 years, perhaps 30 at most, while its military still can punch above its economic weight, because that advantage is decaying with every decade, and it has lost 3 decades worth of it already.

T-55 ain't obsolete yet.

 

[Zachowon]

T-55 ain't obsolete yet.

Yes....
Yes it is.
North Kirea still modifies them as well. They are obsolete as they are basically paperweights ti any modern tank. Thier armor is useless against all but small arms

 

[BlackDragon98]

Yes....
Yes it is.
North Kirea still modifies them as well. They are obsolete as they are basically paperweights ti any modern tank. Thier armor is useless against all but small arms

T-55M5:
This modernization kit adds convex explosive reactive armour "Kontakt-5" panels around turret front, armour panel on glacis plate, a longer hull, a new style fire control equipment with stabilized TVK-3 and TKN-1SM sights for the gunner and commander, an improved V-55U engine (or V-46-5M) and a main gun stabilization system. The original 100 mm D-10T2S gun is maintained. Combat weight is less than 40 tonnes.[37]

-This is more than enough to destroy a M2/M3 Bradley, Stryker, or M113.

T-55M6:
A more radical upgrade with longer chassis with 6 road wheels each side, a 690 hp V-46-5M diesel engine and with the complete turret with automatic loader and the 2A46M 125 mm main gun of the T-72B. Also, the protection was increased to T-80U level. Optionally, the tank can be equipped with the 1A40-1 fire control system with the 9K120 "Svir" ATGM system (as per the T-72B) or with the 1A42 and 9K119 "Refleks" systems (as per the T-80U). Combat weight is 43 tonnes.[37]

-This is basically a modernized T-72 without the armor. Rather cheap upgrade package.

With modern tanks, whoever gets the first shot wins. Armor matters less and less with ATGMs and better AP rounds.

 

[Zachowon]

T-55M5:
This modernization kit adds convex explosive reactive armour "Kontakt-5" panels around turret front, armour panel on glacis plate, a longer hull, a new style fire control equipment with stabilized TVK-3 and TKN-1SM sights for the gunner and commander, an improved V-55U engine (or V-46-5M) and a main gun stabilization system. The original 100 mm D-10T2S gun is maintained. Combat weight is less than 40 tonnes.[37]

-This is more than enough to destroy a M2/M3 Bradley, Stryker, or M113.

T-55M6:
A more radical upgrade with longer chassis with 6 road wheels each side, a 690 hp V-46-5M diesel engine and with the complete turret with automatic loader and the 2A46M 125 mm main gun of the T-72B. Also, the protection was increased to T-80U level. Optionally, the tank can be equipped with the 1A40-1 fire control system with the 9K120 "Svir" ATGM system (as per the T-72B) or with the 1A42 and 9K119 "Refleks" systems (as per the T-80U). Combat weight is 43 tonnes.[37]

-This is basically a modernized T-72 without the armor. Rather cheap upgrade package.

With modern tanks, whoever gets the first shot wins. Armor matters less and less with ATGMs and better AP rounds.

And do you know that the Abrams cam tank such things without difficulty right?

Also, it is still useless against a Abrams.

 

[Marduk]

T-55M5:
This modernization kit adds convex explosive reactive armour "Kontakt-5" panels around turret front, armour panel on glacis plate, a longer hull, a new style fire control equipment with stabilized TVK-3 and TKN-1SM sights for the gunner and commander, an improved V-55U engine (or V-46-5M) and a main gun stabilization system. The original 100 mm D-10T2S gun is maintained. Combat weight is less than 40 tonnes.[37]

-This is more than enough to destroy a M2/M3 Bradley, Stryker, or M113.

Of course there are modernizations to make it a kinda viable second rate tank... But doesn't make it less obsolete. A T-34 is perfectly able to kill any of these too, especially if you put modern fire control on it, but that doesn't make it any less obsolete. Even though surprisingly enough, several countries still use them, from wiki:

In 2018, there were nine countries that maintained T-34s in the inventories of their national armed forces: Cuba, Yemen, the Republic of the Congo, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Namibia, North Korea, Laos, and Vietnam.[154] Of these operators, Vietnam possessed the largest known surviving fleet of T-34 series tanks, with 45.[14] Bosnia-Herzegovina possessed 5, Yemen 30, Guinea 30, Guinea-Bissau 10, Mali 21, and Laos 30.[14][155][156] It was unclear how many Cuban and North Korean T-34s remained in service.[14] All the Congolese, Namibian and Malian tanks were believed to be in reserve storage or inoperable.[14][157] The Laotian Army retired its T-34s in early 2019 and sold all of them to Russia, where they will be used for public displays and museum exhibits.[155]

The notable part is that despite all the upgrades Russia itself is no longer using T-55's for a reason, even though it had some of the best variant available, got rid of them all in 2012.

Realistically, newest Kontakt probably does wonders for its ATGM resistance compared to older models, but against decent MBTs with up to date kinetic ammo, very much insufficient.
The 125mm turret variant fixes some of the limitations, but at that point, its aimed mostly at few third world importers with logistical reasons for sticking with it, because you are getting half a T-72 or T-90 at that point and putting it on an inferior hull, why not get a whole one, its not like those hulls are that expensive.

 

[BlackDragon98]

And do you know that the Abrams cam tank such things without difficulty right?

Also, it is still useless against a Abrams.

T-55M6 has the same gun as a modernized T-72.
It can kill the M1A1 Abrams. Just a matter of who shots first.

 

[Zachowon]

T-55M6 has the same gun as a modernized T-72.
It can kill the M1A1 Abrams. Just a matter of who shots first.

Not from thee front but definitely vice versa.

 

[ATP]

But it would get then closer to you poles

No,it would not.Ukraine was created by germans during WW1,and they have still their assets there.
Entire war is,in fact,proxy war between Russia and Germany,or rather problem issue in their ongoing alliance.Germany would not let Russia take too much of Ukraine,and Russia would not abadonn their alliance with Merkel for that.
And people are dying,right,but ...there are ukrainian and russian.Nor Putin,nor Merkel care about them dying.

Besides,if USA would be taken by Kamala,she would gave us for free to Putin no matter how Ukraine would fare.
In that case,we would not any other choice then become China vassal state.I hope,that USA would remain normal.

 

[Zachowon]

No,it would not.Ukraine was created by germans during WW1,and they have still their assets there.
Entire war is,in fact,proxy war between Russia and Germany,or rather problem issue in their ongoing alliance.Germany would not let Russia take too much of Ukraine,and Russia would not abadonn their alliance with Merkel for that.
And people are dying,right,but ...there are ukrainian and russian.Nor Putin,nor Merkel care about them dying.

Besides,if USA would be taken by Kamala,she would gave us for free to Putin no matter how Ukraine would fare.
In that case,we would not any other choice then become China vassal state.I hope,that USA would remain normal.

No.
We would not be given to Russia or China as a Vassal state.
The military nor the people will allow rhat.

 

[ATP]

No.
We would not be given to Russia or China as a Vassal state.
The military nor the people will allow rhat.

USA would not gave themselves,but they could gave Poland to Russia.And then our only choice would be being China vassal.Bad choice,but better then russians or germans.

 

[Zachowon]

USA would not gave themselves,but they could gave Poland to Russia.And then our only choice would be being China vassal.Bad choice,but better then russians or germans.

We wouldn't give you to Russia.

Do none of you realize Russia has always been the dems big bad?
Why bow to them?

 

[ParadiseLost]

Russia is wasting its time.

Its military prowess will hardly matter if it can't fix its terrible population growth rate (currently negative).

However, I think Russia wants to push into Ukraine because if a conflict happens, it wants the border lines to be in Belarus, Ukrain, and Serbia, not on its own border.

Russia (if a war does happen) wants to be able to quickly bring pain to Germany and other parts of Western Europe to force a white peace, because a long war doesn't favor Russia (against almost any major enemy).

 

[Aaron Fox]

Oh boy, reality is curbing my notes for my future history setting again. Knew that something like this is going to happen right before Russia simply crushes Ukraine like a bug...

 

[BlackDragon98]

Oh boy, reality is curbing my notes for my future history setting again. Knew that something like this is going to happen right before Russia simply crushes Ukraine like a bug...

Russia can't possibly fight a major war right now.
Their economy got wasted by sanctions after Crimea and Donbass.

 

[Marduk]

Russia can't possibly fight a major war right now.
Their economy got wasted by sanctions after Crimea and Donbass.

Yes, but when was the last time they weren't being wasted by sanctions?
And can Ukraine alone give them a major war?

 

[BlackDragon98]

Yes, but when was the last time they weren't being wasted by sanctions?
And can Ukraine alone give them a major war?

There are US soldiers in Ukraine.
That alone stops Russia from doing anything drastic, because if US soldiers start dying, than it's no longer just a Ukraine problem.

Putin ain't stupid. He knows that Russia can't fight a war in this state.

Syria was a different case BTW. Trump and Putin collaborated in destroying Obama's pet terrorists.

 

[Marduk]

There are US soldiers in Ukraine.
That alone stops Russia from doing anything drastic, because if US soldiers start dying, than it's no longer just a Ukraine problem.

There were US soldiers in Georgia during the 2008 South Ossetia war too, and look how that worked out...
Training detachments and such generally get out of the way when shit hits the fan, as far as i know this isn't a tripwire force, like in certain NATO countries or in South Korea.