Texas Border Invasion Standoff

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Sounds like someone is worried.
 
Biden and his handlers are fools. They are teetering near the precipice and it's over mass immigration.

They would plunge America into Civil War for the sake of cheap labour/keep GDP line going up. This won't be worth it.

Well. Not for him.

Although I still consider it very much a long shot (in the extreme), it must be noted that if by some ludicrous happenstance matters do escalate and the culture war escalates into actual war at this rather early stage... and the right side wins... that would avert a vast amount of bloodshed later.

I don't think it's likely. I don't believe in such good luck. But if it does happen, I'll be thanking the Lord for it every day, for the rest of my life.
 
nah the goal of an adversary wouldn't be to see a specific side win. it would be to draw it out so maximum damage would be inflicted on america. supporting both sides is the way to go for that.
Not if the side they want to win is losing.


And....

The likely hood of a shooting war is VERY limited. Due to the fact that the speed in which it would take for the military outside if the 82nd, who are uh..not the most happy with the government (no unit is. In fact no one in the IC or the military truly thinks open birders are good. So many security risks.)
Add in the fact if how divided the military is at the level of actual fights varies a lot.
 
If it goes kinetic, which no federal soldiers want to have to fire on American citizens.

Since those there might have actually went to basic or AIT/OSUT with thise Guardsmen.
The green blood we bleed is all the same be it NG, Reserve or Active.
 
There would be no "victor" in such a conflict. The Union would simply disintegrate and you'd have loose coalitions of Independent Republics littering what was the United States.
I think that's a gross simplification.

A huge amount of western culture is currently utterly dependent on the lack of large-scale violence and suffering in living memory. This is particularly strong in America, where we haven't had the kinds of 'cultural enrichment' issues Europe has been suffering over the last decade.

If wide-scale violence does break out in America, and I mean thousands dying no less than a state away from any given place, not leftist riots with sub-100 fatalities in leftist cities, that would be a massive culture shock that would force a radical shift in worldviews for a lot of people.

I'm not going to try to prognosticate exactly what would come out the other side, but it'd by necessity be drastically different, especially given how smartphones and social media mean that everyone will be able to see just what's happening.

Sure, there'd be some hardcore denialists who refuse reality even as it (possibly literally) strangles them, but if there's block-to-block fighting in the next city over, and you can watch it live from hundreds of angles, that's going to change people.

Permanently.
 
There would be no "victor" in such a conflict. The Union would simply disintegrate and you'd have loose coalitions of Independent Republics littering what was the United States.

No, that's not how these things play out. The losing side has committed treason -- as defined by the winning side -- and will be politically swept aside. Neither is this a situation that can be dragged out, as with the (first?) Civil War. Once a majority of the armed forces pick a side, this becomes either emergency police action against insurrectionists (cf. Andrew Jackson's threat about 'seceding Calhoun's head from his body' over the nullification crisis), or emergency police action against a criminal admistration turned tyrannical. The side that is declared illegitimate, by the side that can back that accusation up by force of arms, is the side that loses pretty definitively.

If this comes to shooting and the Republicans back down or are successfully branded traitors, then no Republican will hold serious office in the USA for the next two or three decades. If it comes to such extremes and the Biden administration loses, then the same holds true for Democrats. In either case, the winning side will be -- if not dominated, then at least strongly influenced by it 'extremist' wing. Which will mean that the winning side carries out fairly significant reforms.

A Democrat victory, for instance, would mean that the Second Amendment is (functionally or literally) nixed, the Supreme Court is packed (and/or the sitting conservatives are branded traitors and evicted), abortion is guaranteed on a federal level, MAGA-aligned groups are banned, members of such groups are convicted for domestic terrorism purely on the grounds that they are members... and, of course, the Federal government assumes effective control of everything and the states become mere provinces that have to shut up and obey. Plus, border control becomes functionally meaningless.

A Republican victory, conversely, would mean the opposite. A major return to states' rights (probably via Constitutional amendment), removal of key Democrat functionaries for their attempted "coup", most or all gun laws immediately declared unconstitutional, probably a federal abortion ban, and mass terrorism charges against left-wing groups. Plus, borders become functionally closed, and will be heavily patrolled with soldiers with standing kill orders.
 

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