History Western Civilization, Rome and Cyclical History

[stevep]

Please stop going along with his obvious and deliberate attempts to derail this thread. It's clearly what he wants. Better to ignore outright.


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The 40K discussion is, of course, far more benign-- but at this point has also strayed a bit beyond the confines of this thread, so I'll refrain from adding to it here. (We can happily carry it on in the 40K thread. )


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More on-topic: a vague consideration that I've been thinking about recently is that the civilisational cycle is actually more resilient than you'd think. There have been comments here, from time to time, about random events, climate changes, or modern technology being "game changers". I think that, at least for the most part, this is not really the case. Some observations:


-- When civiliational cycles are disrupted, it's almost invariably the result of human action on a massive scale. Mostly, we're talking about complete conquest of a civilisation by another. In some case, this terminates the conquered civilisation; in other cases, it transforms that civilisation, affecting its historical cycle. (Examples of the latter include China and Russia, both at the hands of the Mongols.)

-- Even significant changes in climate and such external factors don't seem to have a very direct effect on the cycle. It certainly affacts the specifics, but not so much the overall pattern. For instance, the civilisations hardest-hit by the Late Bronze Age Collapse were already going into a recessive phase, and the civilisations that came out on top were already on the up-swing anyway. At most, the wider context accentuated the existing trends; but it didn't disrupt them.

-- A potential reason for this is that the kind of human action that can distort the cycle is typically fast and overwhelming, like a tsunami. Changes in climate are slower, more like rising sea levels. Civilisations may definitely suffer from those, but they can typically still adapt.

-- Climate factors (and other external pressures) can and do shape how a culture develops, so while not alterning the underlying civilisational mechanics, it can alter their application. I'd tentatively point out Meso-America as the most extreme example of this. In that civilisation, the familiar cycle is oberved, but ever single period is drawn-out. It's like they were playing out their history in slow-motion. My own suspicion is that environmental pressures (that shaped the civilisation from the start) played a rol in that.

-- An interesting (potential) outlier is the case of India, where the equivalent of Alexander and Napoleon (namely Chandragupta Maurya) actually triumphed. To my knowledge, this is the only case in history where that happened. A potential reason is that Alexander's invasion of India was just disruptive enough to the Nanda Empire to give Chandragupta a critical leg up later on. This is, in any event, a case where a "low probability outcome" actually happened. And without evidence of truly massive/overwhelming action by another civilisation!

-- This, overall, does not bode well for the notion of such "low probability outcomes" actually happening in our future. We've discussed some of these as speculation, bt I do think they'll remaing purely speculative. Things like the Gracchi winning, or Marius winning, or Caesarism being defeated, et cetera-- those haven't been observed to happen. Ever. That's not to say that they can't happen, but rather that it's not really what I'd put my money on.

-- In summation: by far the best prediction of the future is still attained by observing the analogous events from previous civilisations, and applying the common trends to our civilisation. They shout of "this time it's different!" is becoming more shrill and panicked with each passing day.

1.Agree about our pet troll
2.Agree about cycles - but:
2.1 now all things happen faster.So,i think that EU would fall till 2030,and we would have new Europe about 2040 - only question what it would be,Caliphate,China province,green gulag,or,highly unlikely, return to normal states.
2.2 We now gulag possibility - so,except return of new cycle we would get neo commies ruling til remnants of people would live in caves.
The same goeas for USA - we would have either Ceasar or green gulag about 2050.Well,small chances for Return of Republic,too.

So little imagination. You can't see outside your box any more than Skalligrim can. So you hide behind delusions of a the dark horrors of your dreams. It would be funny if it wasn't so tragic.

 

[stevep]

Came across this interesting article and the general discussion, along with the reference to the 3rd story made me think immediately of this discussion.

There are a number of things I find rather off. Think a consumer society has been about for a long time. There has been a fashion cycle estimated since at least the 18thC in Britain and probably earlier in the Netherlands. Also the idea of a mass market has been around long before ~1945. It could be that the author is talking about the move from the idea of greater spread of wealth to it being increasingly presented by commercial and other interests as the be all and end all of individual life. A bit like Smith's ideas of a free market was perverted from a way to empower people to a way to deny them choice and excuse increasingly parasitical behaviour by the dominant elites. Or one of Thatcher's most notorious and damaging lies "there's no such thing as society". There have been attempts at denying the importance of choice and of ordinary individuals in western society for decades now and especially in the Anglo-sphere it has had a damaging effective. However it is always possible to change things despite the desires of the doomsayers. They may want disaster but we can deny them their dreams. Cultures die when there are no longer enough people to believe in them.

It reminds me of when I read Toynbee's "A study of History" - fortunately the abridged single volume version - in my youth. Disagreed with the desperation he showed in fitting all cultures into the same very limited strait-jacket and also his eventual assumption that people are powerless to change things. However I agree with him that a culture is at its highest and most powerful when its leaders lead by example and inspire others to follow them. Rather than the latter 'universal state' which is increasingly ruled by naked force until it collapses under its own weight. There is no actual reason why new people can not inspire others if the apathy and despair the rulers desire and propagate can be overcome.

I think the article also doesn't really highlight enough that what's is proposed is very much an individualist community. Suspect the usual suspects will - if they dare to read it - start pretending that's what being suggested is some sort of socialist or communist idea.

Of course while such action would be very beneficial both for the people involved and society in general it will ultimately have to be carried into the political environment as that's the only way to break the power of the oligarchs that seek to destroy human choice and power. This again is something that isn't mentioned but possibly the author thinks is self-evident.

Anyway it shows a possible way ahead but that, like anything of value requires hard work and whether enough people are willing to engage will be the big question.

One other point is that it shows why so many people can be drawn into things like the MAGA morass. Especially as things get worse and worse with the elites consuming more and more of total resources, people get desperate for a way out and those same oligarchs are more than willing to offer a false dawn to divert them, It does however give an argument why so many people are decived in that way. Desperate people will clutch at straws, even if they latter find out those straws are poisonous snakes.

 

[King Arts]

Christianity is a monotheistic faith. It also, like the other Abrahamic religious makes claims that only god is prefect and incapable of error while all his work is deeply flawed. This causes both moral and logical contradictions but also means that any group claiming there are more than one character incapable of error is by definition heretical. Let alone all the other ways in which Catholicism like the bulk of the other main branches that claim to be Christian diverge from his teaching as reported by themselves in the bible.

I am aware of historical facts which have been known long before Luther made his [fortunately] failed attempt to reform Catholicism.

Are you talking about Mary because Catholics don’t worship Mary that you think they do shows your ignorance.

 

[Skallagrim]

1.Agree about our pet troll
2.Agree about cycles - but:
2.1 now all things happen faster.So,i think that EU would fall till 2030,and we would have new Europe about 2040 - only question what it would be,Caliphate,China province,green gulag,or,highly unlikely, return to normal states.
2.2 We now gulag possibility - so,except return of new cycle we would get neo commies ruling til remnants of people would live in caves.
The same goeas for USA - we would have either Ceasar or green gulag about 2050.Well,small chances for Return of Republic,too.

As can be deduced from the most recent reactions, the trolling simply doesn't stop if one feeds the troll.

As far as the historical cycle goes, I find that intertia is often overlooked. Sure, by all reason, the current cohort of oligarchs should be gone already. Yet humans are not fully reasonable beings, and our culture and its history is therefore always a step beyond reason. (We recently talked about Frank Herbert: he makes a big point of that as well.) The result is that moribund elites don't clear out when they ought to, but out-stay their welcome. Often considerably.

The flip-side is that while they are more tenacious than we might (optimistically) assume, they are also less capable than we often (pessimistically) assume. Sure, they'll try their "green gulag" (I think the traditional term is "panopticon society", with China's social credit being an example of this). But... it won't function. Same as all command economies don't function. So they'll fuck over a lot of people, but it won't save their dying system! In fact, it speeds the collapse!

So, I remain convinced of the previously estimated time-table. Yes, MAGA fails (or: is made to fail), and then we get "green gulag" through the 2050s. Then first real civil war, which the elite still wins. Then brutal establishment tyranny as they live on the last riches of a society thry have plundered. And then, Caesarism-- leading to a final civil war, and the demise of this age and all its key aspects.

A hell of a ride. But we can at least say it's going somewhere. The current system is going nowhere at all-- except to to the abyss, of course.

 

[Lord Sovereign]

So, I remain convinced of the previously estimated time-table. Yes, MAGA fails (or: is made to fail), and then we get "green gulag" through the 2050s. Then first real civil war, which the elite still wins. Then brutal establishment tyranny as they live on the last riches of a society thry have plundered. And then, Caesarism-- leading to a final civil war, and the demise of this age and all its key aspects.

This is where I have to disagree with you, Skally.

What possible evidence is there to convince you our current breed of patrician can do all these things, let alone have the steel to win a civil war? They are fat, feckless, weak, and ideologically reject the concept of strength itself.

There will not be a Sulla to save them.

 

[Skallagrim]

This is where I have to disagree with you, Skally.

What possible evidence is there to convince you our current breed of patrician can do all these things, let alone have the steel to win a civil war? They are fat, feckless, weak, and ideologically reject the concept of strength itself.

There will not be a Sulla to save them.

I'm not so sure of that. Look at the patricians of earlier ages. They were of no better character. The key point is fear of change. Better men prop up the existing order because they still believe the old order has something worth preserving; and that the alternative is worse.

We see that in this thread, just two posts above my last one, with references to MAGA being a "morass". This attitude is inherently wrong, but it's not uncommon. People are terrified of drastic changes. They'll swing their support only when "things staying as they are" is an immediately worse prospect than "throw them all out, come what may".

That's why it takes time. That's why there will, most probably, be a Sulla after all. It won't help, but he doesn't know that. He hopes against hope that the existing order can be made to function once more. (This is an iteration of Spengler's famous injunction that "optimism is cowardice".)

 

[ATP]

So little imagination. You can't see outside your box any more than Skalligrim can. So you hide behind delusions of a the dark horrors of your dreams. It would be funny if it wasn't so tragic.

Suuure.Go to bed and hide under blanket,or bad catholic hiding under your bed would get you.
but,you are as funny writing about religion like late @Chiron about Putin,so please continue.

@Skallagrim ,i think that you underestimate power of communism - once they manage to put us into gulags,we would be there till entire system fall becouse of economy.
And,in case of world Gulag,it would last till last machines stop working,and fall only after that.

Which mean 200-300 years,killing 90% of population,and leaving demoralized remnants on cave-age level technology.
Worst then 10.000BC,becouse then humans knew how to live on that level.

But,at least,all elite descendents would die - new chiefs would be gangsters or low-level security dudes.

 

[Simonbob]

Suuure.Go to bed and hide under blanket,or bad catholic hiding under your bed would get you.
but,you are as funny writing about religion like late @Chiron about Putin,so please continue.

@Skallagrim ,i think that you underestimate power of communism - once they manage to put us into gulags,we would be there till entire system fall becouse of economy.
And,in case of world Gulag,it would last till last machines stop working,and fall only after that.

Which mean 200-300 years,killing 90% of population,and leaving demoralized remnants on cave-age level technology.
Worst then 10.000BC,becouse then humans knew how to live on that level.

But,at least,all elite descendents would die - new chiefs would be gangsters or low-level security dudes.

As far as I know, there have been no long lasting Communist states. None. Even Nth Korea isn't one, now. (Power and position handed down from father to son, they're a royal family. Big no-no in Communism.)


Communism doesn't work. It doesn't work so very much that after a few years it slips into something else authoritarian. Always.

 

[stevep]

Are you talking about Mary because Catholics don’t worship Mary that you think they do shows your ignorance.

I'm talking about the bit of hubris known as papal infallibility. The time scale I mentioned should have given an additional hint.

You would do better to ask questions rather than jump to conclusions like that.

 

[ATP]

As far as I know, there have been no long lasting Communist states. None. Even Nth Korea isn't one, now. (Power and position handed down from father to son, they're a royal family. Big no-no in Communism.)


Communism doesn't work. It doesn't work so very much that after a few years it slips into something else authoritarian. Always.

I hope,that you are right.Rule of gangster dynasty is possible to survive,rule of green gulag is not.
And,unfortunatelly,soviets never evolved into sometching else,only lost its tootchs.

 

[stevep]

As can be deduced from the most recent reactions, the trolling simply doesn't stop if one feeds the troll.

As far as the historical cycle goes, I find that intertia is often overlooked. Sure, by all reason, the current cohort of oligarchs should be gone already. Yet humans are not fully reasonable beings, and our culture and its history is therefore always a step beyond reason. (We recently talked about Frank Herbert: he makes a big point of that as well.) The result is that moribund elites don't clear out when they ought to, but out-stay their welcome. Often considerably.

The flip-side is that while they are more tenacious than we might (optimistically) assume, they are also less capable than we often (pessimistically) assume. Sure, they'll try their "green gulag" (I think the traditional term is "panopticon society", with China's social credit being an example of this). But... it won't function. Same as all command economies don't function. So they'll fuck over a lot of people, but it won't save their dying system! In fact, it speeds the collapse!

So, I remain convinced of the previously estimated time-table. Yes, MAGA fails (or: is made to fail), and then we get "green gulag" through the 2050s. Then first real civil war, which the elite still wins. Then brutal establishment tyranny as they live on the last riches of a society thry have plundered. And then, Caesarism-- leading to a final civil war, and the demise of this age and all its key aspects.

A hell of a ride. But we can at least say it's going somewhere. The current system is going nowhere at all-- except to to the abyss, of course.

There's a simple answer. Stop trolling and try and behave like an adult. As I've said before your not going to censor me because your frightened of the points I raise.

Your still trying to pretend that the MAGA morass wasn't a creation of the oligarchs. It's held back reform for a while and there is the danger that serious reform will be prevented in time and you get the absolute disaster you crave so badly. The question is are you that much of a simpleton or willingly doing everything you can to keep the oligarchy from being challenged?

 

[stevep]

I'm not so sure of that. Look at the patricians of earlier ages. They were of no better character. The key point is fear of change. Better men prop up the existing order because they still believe the old order has something worth preserving; and that the alternative is worse.

We see that in this thread, just two posts above my last one, with references to MAGA being a "morass". This attitude is inherently wrong, but it's not uncommon. People are terrified of drastic changes. They'll swing their support only when "things staying as they are" is an immediately worse prospect than "throw them all out, come what may".

That's why it takes time. That's why there will, most probably, be a Sulla after all. It won't help, but he doesn't know that. He hopes against hope that the existing order can be made to function once more. (This is an iteration of Spengler's famous injunction that "optimism is cowardice".)

Your finally looked into a mirror.

Unfortunately not true as your still trying to pretend that Trump was a reformer rather than a committed member of the oligarchy. Can I sell you a bridge?

 

[stevep]

Suuure.Go to bed and hide under blanket,or bad catholic hiding under your bed would get you.
but,you are as funny writing about religion like late @Chiron about Putin,so please continue.

@Skallagrim ,i think that you underestimate power of communism - once they manage to put us into gulags,we would be there till entire system fall becouse of economy.
And,in case of world Gulag,it would last till last machines stop working,and fall only after that.

Which mean 200-300 years,killing 90% of population,and leaving demoralized remnants on cave-age level technology.
Worst then 10.000BC,becouse then humans knew how to live on that level.

But,at least,all elite descendents would die - new chiefs would be gangsters or low-level security dudes.

I fear there's a considerable chance of that sort of disaster, possibly even worse if some people on this thread get their desired collapse and chaos.

I don't fear delusional idiots unless their in a position of power to inflict the harm they wish. Don't think either you or Slallagrim are in that position, fortunately for the world.

 

[ATP]

I fear there's a considerable chance of that sort of disaster, possibly even worse if some people on this thread get their desired collapse and chaos.

I don't fear delusional idiots unless their in a position of power to inflict the harm they wish. Don't think either you or Slallagrim are in that position, fortunately for the world.

Good troll,show sometching more funny! and,it is nice,that you think about me entire day,but maybe you should try sometching else? it is not healthy for you.
Well,your problem,not mine.

 

[King Arts]

I'm talking about the bit of hubris known as papal infallibility. The time scale I mentioned should have given an additional hint.

You would do better to ask questions rather than jump to conclusions like that.

That still doesn’t make them non Christian, after all most christians think the Bible is infallible yet the Bible is not God.

 

[ATP]

I'm talking about the bit of hubris known as papal infallibility. The time scale I mentioned should have given an additional hint.

You would do better to ask questions rather than jump to conclusions like that.

Poor victim of protestant propaganda.Papal could not made errors only when he said it ex Catedra,and about faith and morality.
Last time it was used about 1955.

 

[LordDemiurge]

Communism doesn't work. It

Also, even the USSR did not have the ability to put everyone in a gulag.

They generally speaking did actually have to and tried to appease their citizenry when they could and faced consequences if things got to too bad.

Honestly just look at their propaganda and monument, there is a constant need to instill a sense of civic religion and identity.

Putting 90% of the population in gulags requires god like power and coordination. As far as I can tell the rich today are not an alien superintelligent hive mind with mind control powers. So I'm really not sure how that would work out.

 

[Skallagrim]

Let's put the theological debate aside, since that's yet more derailing.

The issue of a command economy (and by extensiom, a command society) being doomed to fail is far more relevant, since that applies to a tendency that is indeed observed among the current establishment. What with "social credit", "basic income", "cashless society" and a whole slew of such measures-- all aimed at creating a society of obedient drones. (The people advocating this are the ones who claim to be "fortifying" democracy against the evil populists, by the way. Make of that what you will...)

Big issue: their plan cannot work. They can perhaps succeed in implementing it, but not in making it function. A key thing to keep in mind (relevant for what @ATP argued) is that while the USSR did last for a good bit... it did so by living parasitically off the capitalist world! For instance: the price system. The USSR claimed to have a perfect command economy capable of allocating ideal prices. In reality, they just... copied the average prices in the West, but converted to the ruble economy. That's it. That was they whole "genius, communist" method.

Now, we live in a global economy. The enemy is the so-called "globohomo". Their goal is a global command economy. So whose good ideas will they copy, to stay afloat? Who will they leech off of? Their entire plan is a suicide pact. But suicide for what, and for whom? For the world? Not really. They can do a lot of harm, but most of it can just be re-built, and pretty quickly. They are suiciding themselves.

All you have to do is outlive the bastards.

You can do that. It takes some planning, but it can be done. We're not their greatest enemy, after all. They are their greatest enemy.

 

[ATP]

Also, even the USSR did not have the ability to put everyone in a gulag.

They generally speaking did actually have to and tried to appease their citizenry when they could and faced consequences if things got to too bad.

Honestly just look at their propaganda and monument, there is a constant need to instill a sense of civic religion and identity.

Putting 90% of the population in gulags requires god like power and coordination. As far as I can tell the rich today are not an alien superintelligent hive mind with mind control powers. So I'm really not sure how that would work out.

No,but 10-20 % could be there.
And rest of population go working 12h per day,and shouting how they love sralin - becouse they knew,that they would be send there if they stop.
Even in their own homes they fear to stop praise commies - becouse their own children would sell them otherwise.

If globohomo made world gulag,it would last till all fall apart - and,hence Pol pot regime stil lasted after killing 30-50% of population,it would be probably killing 90% of population till remnants would be not enough to support technology.
Only good thing - their guards would kill elites then and become new tribes chieftains.
Not our descendents,becouse they all die till that happen.

But, i hope that @Skallagrim is right her,not me.
I simply could not forget what commies did to their populations without any rebellions.It could happen to us,too.

 

[Skallagrim]

But, i hope that @Skallagrim is right here, not me.

It's funny, I'm expressing the same view that I've held consistently, based on the same obervations and the same reasoning--

But whereas it's usually regarded as bleak pessimism, you view my expectation as the optimistic one! I think that's funny.


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A vaguely related point is that, while the expectation for the rest of this century tends to be dim, to those who are inclined towards macrohistorical analysis, the long-term implication is a very serene one. Universal ideas persist, or are reborn. An entire civilisation can die out, but on the soil it leaves behind, successors arise. Even though no good idea can ever last, no stupid idea can last, either.

It's very humbling, and very soothing, in a way. I really think that "taking the long view" is a mental cure for the madness and the petty obsessions of any given time. Your perception shifts from "this is insufferable" to "this, too, shall pass". And then the main question is not one of rage anymore.

We've talked a lot about what the transition from "modernity" to "the world after modernity" might entail, and what aspects might be carried over of discarded-- but I'm personally far more curious about what a future Principare might yet create and (ultimately) leave behind. The Principate is, in retrospect, always a civilisation's golden age. The most definitive art and literature is created in that era; even philosophy and science reach their "maturity". Earlier ages may be more innovative, but here we get the pay-off: a consolidation. A final form.

Imagine what our Aeneid could be like. And that's the sort of thing that out-lasts even the death of a civilisation!

The greatest benefit of stepping beyond the highly self-obsessed, "presentist" mindset of the current age (at least in my opinion) is that we'll be able to create things of lasting beauty again. Things that will be cherishes long afer our bones are dust.

That's the closest thing to immortality on earth that any sane man might desire.