History Western Civilization, Rome and Cyclical History

Zyobot

Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
I'll expand upon some earlier remarks here:



As far as Turkey goes, I've previously said that they are a viper within the NATO armour, and it'll bite us in the end. In practice, they're cozying up the China already. They love that Putin is immolating Russia, and that all the world is emptying its armoury into Ukraine. Their ambition is to (re)gain a neo-Ottoman sphere of influence over Syria, Lebanon, Cyprus, Egypt, and if possible the Balkans. But of these, Egypt is most desired, for this would give them control over both the Bosphoros and the Suez Canal.

(Note that I don't think that Turkey is capable of re-creating the Ottoman Empire. But they can and will grab some choice bits, and make the most of it.)

This would involve betraying NATO, but China is more than willing to back them with enormous sums of money and matériel. Because the return favour for that is China gets cheap or free access through these choke points, and Turkey becomes a forward position for Chinese strategic military efforts. (Take keen notice of how avidly Turkey is pushing for "pipe-lines through Turkey" as the "safe" alternative to existing pipe-lines. They cleverly paint this as "making Europe less dependent of Russia". But the actual effect is that they can close those pipe-lines when the time comes for their act of betrayal.)

Turkey is currently in debt and has monetary issues. I expect their betrayal to come when their economy can't hold up any longer. At that point, they'll back-stab NATO, and ally openly with China. In the process, they'll replace their currency with a new Chinese-backed one, and declare all their foreign debt void. (Unilaterally in case of the West; with permission in case of China.)

Turkey is in a strategically significant spot, it has the ambition, it's insulated from overt counter-measures by being inside NATO, it's evidently willing to accept Chinese funding, and it has a major fiscal-economic issue that will provide a compelling reason to accept the Chinese offer. Therefore, my money is on Turkey being the "Pontus" of our age.

(Russia was the only other contender that I could see, and I was saying they'd mostly likely self-destruct instead before the current war broke out. Now, it's evident. Most of Russia will be vassalised by China. Perhaps all of it. If the West is half-way capable, it'll get a chunk of Russia in its own sphere of influence. This means Russia is basically more like ancient Armenia.)

I expect the events I have described to be the root cause of our basic equivalent to the Mithridatic Wars. Europe will at this point scream out for American help, and America will answer. (This is also the point where Europe becomes a definitive American vassal region.)

Anyway, Turkey no doubt gets crushed in the end, although China will prop it up for as long as possible, same as the West is now doing with Ukraine. But China will be less effective, because they won't have so much to pour into backing Turkey. That is because the Turks are just pawns to them, to serve as a useful distraction for the West. (The Turks, possessing an inflated sense of their own importance, don't seem to realise this. Even though it's really obvious.) The main interest of China lies in establishing a firm hold on Taiwan and Asiatic Russia, as well as Korea, Japan, and South-East Asia overall. They'll be getting all of this underway, instead of spending their full effort to back the Turks.



...That about sums up why I think Turkey will play the role of "Pontus", and how it will play out. How the Arab states position themselves in this remains up for grabs. When we consider the prospective "Troubles" in Europe pertaining to unassimilated Muslims, it seems... tricky... to have an alliance that includes both European powers and Arab powers at this point. Not impossible, but certainly precarious. There is also the matter that Turkey and Iran might actually ally, since they're not in direct competition. In case of Arab opposition, this would force said Arabs to fight on two fronts. There are many ways that side of the whole affair can play out.

Yeah...

Will comment on what I can later, as this is a fascinating summation with lots of interrelated factors I feel need to follow up on elsewhere. For starters, whether China will be in a position of strength as the Eastern Empire at all, though I guess that'll have to wait.

Apart from anything else, something tells me that lots of Classical figures watching from the afterlife (namely Mithridates VI, as well as his Roman rivals) must be grimly amused that, despite how much the larger geopolitical and macro-historical backdrop has changed, Asia Minor may once again be the target of renewed wars by our age's Universal-Empire-to-be. Odd how things come full circle like that, really.

More "modern" historical figures (especially those in charge during the last crisis period) would have thoughts of their own, I imagine. Bit beyond me to name them all at the moment, though as it pertains to the current topic, I can unironically picture Hitler cheering for the Turks (and maybe also the Arabs and Iranians) as they threaten to wipe Israel off the map. Would probably also laugh and munch popcorn as he watches Russia disintegrate, too, feeling vindicated as he watches the "exhausted Slavs" bring their own country down via infighting as the "regimented Chinese" sweep in to claim Asiatic Russia. Doubt he'd be pleased with the Kafkaesque state of Europe or that our "Caesar" is of American rather than German stock, but you can't have it all, I guess. 🤷
 

Skallagrim

Well-known member
I'd very much enjoy if a side effect of that scenario was the forced expulsion of all turks from Germany. Wouldn't even take that much, some idiot from that Turk Wolf gang decides to try and force Germany to side with Turkey, blows up some politicans, native germans finally snap.

If we assume that the most probable path unfolds before us -- which it most likely will -- then this is going to happen eventually. It'll be a damned mess, though. Assimilation has failed, and won't magically succeed in the next few decades. So when things really get tough, the result of mass immigration in practice will be the presence of a hostile competitor-group of significant numbers within the borders of all Western European countries.

That's some ISIS shit waiting to happen.

As I see it, any war against an aggressive Islamic power will only harden the battle-lines, and make the mutual hostility that much worse. With every passing year, outlier options involving reform among Musims in Europe become less likely to transpire.

Of course, various groups of Muslims also hate each other with a passion. So that further decreases the chances of any of them being successful. As I've said: most likely, this ends with a bunch of rabid mini-Caliphates and a whole slew of loot-and-rape gangs when things hit their lowest point-- a mess which is then cleaned up at bayonet point, presumably by the "Caesarian" faction.
 

Cherico

Well-known member
If we assume that the most probable path unfolds before us -- which it most likely will -- then this is going to happen eventually. It'll be a damned mess, though. Assimilation has failed, and won't magically succeed in the next few decades. So when things really get tough, the result of mass immigration in practice will be the presence of a hostile competitor-group of significant numbers within the borders of all Western European countries.

That's some ISIS shit waiting to happen.

As I see it, any war against an aggressive Islamic power will only harden the battle-lines, and make the mutual hostility that much worse. With every passing year, outlier options involving reform among Musims in Europe become less likely to transpire.

Of course, various groups of Muslims also hate each other with a passion. So that further decreases the chances of any of them being successful. As I've said: most likely, this ends with a bunch of rabid mini-Caliphates and a whole slew of loot-and-rape gangs when things hit their lowest point-- a mess which is then cleaned up at bayonet point, presumably by the "Caesarian" faction.

Future generations will truely curse the weakness of their forbearers.
 

Skallagrim

Well-known member
Future generations will truely curse the weakness of their forbearers.

Lack of resolve; lack of a willingness to face reality.

When we speak of the various social destabilisations in the West (of which mass immigration is one, especially in Europe), it's already starkly clear to anyone who's not completely delusional that if only the politicians had listened to reason 20-30 years ago, there would in most cases be no serious crisis.

A few days ago, on the 6th, it was the anniversary of the murder of Pim Fortuyn by a far-left radical, back in 2002. In my country, he represented the voice of reason. He was set to win the elections when he was killed. Compared to the (so-called) far right now, he was moderate. He proposed plans then that they will still not accept now. But today, his proposals are no longer workable. Something more drastic would already be needed, to right the ship now. (And that won't be done either, which means any future outcome is going to be more extreme still!)

It's the same with men like Ross Perot in America, who warned about globalist cronyism and the public debt even before these things went into over-drive. And there are many such examples!

If such leaders had been listened to, then frankly moderate reforms (if implemented thoroughly, back then) would have sufficed. This is why I keep stressing that you can't reasonably blame the populist opposition for the escalation of the culture wars. It's the entrenched establishment that made (and continues to make) such horrors inevitable.

Who killed modernity? The fucking modernists, that's who. And they'll make damn sure that it's the most needlessly violent death that can be had....
 

ATP

Well-known member
Lack of resolve; lack of a willingness to face reality.

When we speak of the various social destabilisations in the West (of which mass immigration is one, especially in Europe), it's already starkly clear to anyone who's not completely delusional that if only the politicians had listened to reason 20-30 years ago, there would in most cases be no serious crisis.

A few days ago, on the 6th, it was the anniversary of the murder of Pim Fortuyn by a far-left radical, back in 2002. In my country, he represented the voice of reason. He was set to win the elections when he was killed. Compared to the (so-called) far right now, he was moderate. He proposed plans then that they will still not accept now. But today, his proposals are no longer workable. Something more drastic would already be needed, to right the ship now. (And that won't be done either, which means any future outcome is going to be more extreme still!)

It's the same with men like Ross Perot in America, who warned about globalist cronyism and the public debt even before these things went into over-drive. And there are many such examples!

If such leaders had been listened to, then frankly moderate reforms (if implemented thoroughly, back then) would have sufficed. This is why I keep stressing that you can't reasonably blame the populist opposition for the escalation of the culture wars. It's the entrenched establishment that made (and continues to make) such horrors inevitable.

Who killed modernity? The fucking modernists, that's who. And they'll make damn sure that it's the most needlessly violent death that can be had....
Still would work for them,if they manage to create world green gulag.Their descendents would pay for that when it finally fall,but before that,they would live few generations on our descendents backs.
 

Zyobot

Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
Future generations will truely curse the weakness of their forbearers.

Lack of resolve; lack of a willingness to face reality.

When we speak of the various social destabilisations in the West (of which mass immigration is one, especially in Europe), it's already starkly clear to anyone who's not completely delusional that if only the politicians had listened to reason 20-30 years ago, there would in most cases be no serious crisis.

A few days ago, on the 6th, it was the anniversary of the murder of Pim Fortuyn by a far-left radical, back in 2002. In my country, he represented the voice of reason. He was set to win the elections when he was killed. Compared to the (so-called) far right now, he was moderate. He proposed plans then that they will still not accept now. But today, his proposals are no longer workable. Something more drastic would already be needed, to right the ship now. (And that won't be done either, which means any future outcome is going to be more extreme still!)

It's the same with men like Ross Perot in America, who warned about globalist cronyism and the public debt even before these things went into over-drive. And there are many such examples!

If such leaders had been listened to, then frankly moderate reforms (if implemented thoroughly, back then) would have sufficed. This is why I keep stressing that you can't reasonably blame the populist opposition for the escalation of the culture wars. It's the entrenched establishment that made (and continues to make) such horrors inevitable.

Who killed modernity? The fucking modernists, that's who. And they'll make damn sure that it's the most needlessly violent death that can be had....

Had an idea hatching in my brain for a while, but since you mention it: Been thinking of writing a cross-time ISOT scenario bringing together various people and factions ranging from the late 18th century to the early 22nd century into a "shared world".

Aside from the general turbulence and rampant conflict between different generations (as well as infighting within the same generation, such as Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia still going at it), you might also have the uptimers and downtimers bookending the 21st century — the GI Generation from the 1940s, and the Imperial Generation from the 2220s — shaking hands amicably and finding they have way more in common with each other than those "21st-century lunatics" in the middle (who they'd mutually despise). An unfortunate outcome, yes, but a frighteningly likely one regardless. :oops:
 

ATP

Well-known member
Had an idea hatching in my brain for a while, but since you mention it: Been thinking of writing a cross-time ISOT scenario bringing together various people and factions ranging from the late 18th century to the early 22nd century into a "shared world".

Aside from the general turbulence and rampant conflict between different generations (as well as infighting within the same generation, such as Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia still going at it), you might also have the uptimers and downtimers bookending the 21st century — the GI Generation from the 1940s, and the Imperial Generation from the 2220s — shaking hands amicably and finding they have way more in common with each other than those "21st-century lunatics" in the middle (who they'd mutually despise). An unfortunate outcome, yes, but a frighteningly likely one regardless. :oops:
You sadist.What you get would be 21th century lunatics trying to enslave/kill all other,with help of their commie friends from 20th century.And,of course 19-20th century germans trying to take world again.
I hope,that 22th century dudes would have enough dakka to cover that.
 

Zyobot

Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
You sadist.What you get would be 21th century lunatics trying to enslave/kill all other,with help of their commie friends from 20th century.And,of course 19-20th century germans trying to take world again.
I hope,that 22th century dudes would have enough dakka to cover that.

Hey, no one said ISOTs had to be all good! ;)
 
  • HaHa
Reactions: ATP

Skallagrim

Well-known member
Look, the Spenglerian view of history is interesting, but do not take it as gospel. Given how comically wrong Spengler got it the first time round in the form of Germany and Hitler, mayhaps the idea has some flaws hither and thither?

Quoting this here because I'd otherwise participate in derailing another thread.

I'm pretty curious what you mean. Spengler certainly got things wrong, but he cottoned on to what a failure Hitler was pretty early on (in fact, when most foreign leaders were still cheer-leading for Der Führer). Spengler remarked that Hitler had "read the entire title of my book" (implying Hitler knew fuck-all about what Spengler intended). Later on (just a year before his own death at a relatively young age) Spengler mentioned "in ten years, the thousand-year Reich won't exist anymore".

Nine years and eleven months later, Hitler put a bullet through his own brain. So as far as predictions go, that one was pretty accurate! ;)

Sure, early on, Spengler hoped the Nazis would bring about national re-invigoration. So did a lot of people, and the smart ones figured out early on it wasn't going to happen. Spengler among them.
 
Last edited:

Bassoe

Well-known member
To be honest....the future historians wont be completely in the wrong there.

The current leadership is incredibly decadent (That I can forgive) And corrupt (This not so much)
When everything goes tits up and the system collapses people will have a histography about how douchy the last guys were, and it wont be completely wrong.
Certainly true that this kind of historiography is no doubt going to be a thing. Especially when you consider that the people who typically initiate a Principate want to set themselves apart from the "fallen age" that came before. So evn though they don't really have to invent the degeneracy that they decry (it's real, we can see it this very day), they do (and will again, in our future) have a tendency to stress those aspects. ...And ignore that there was good, too. [*]

Of course, decadence is a human trait, and since human nature is basically static (or has been, for the past ten millennia, and I don't see any evidence of change), the Empire soon has its own excesses. But since it has more of a fixation on moral norms (though not necessarily good morals!) and "the proper forms", there are more "mainstream" voices loudly decrying it. Which defines a lot of the literature from the Principate, doesn't it? Even their histories are thinly-veiled morality plays. The effect is that in retrospect, the ages all look about equally decadent. And maybe they are. (A key difference is that the decadence of a chaos period is allowed to unhinge society, and the decadence of the Principate is very much not allowed to do that.)

The obsession with immortality tends to go away with the advent of the Principate, though. That kind of society tends to seek immortality through renown, rather than some kind of physical deathlessness. This returns later, in the Dominate. It's interesting that Caesarism, meanwhile, is also not exempt from such yearnings. Caesar himself was (as we've noted) a particularly noble iteration of his... archetype, if you will. But note how Qin Shi Huangdi was himself obsessed with immortality. It's possible that a "Neo-Caesar" of our age pours billions into life-extension technology, no doubt including all sorts of pseudo-science. That's not a given, but history shows that it it very much possible for such a figure to share in such an obsession.

We might conclude that the people of sick/dying societies and systems become obsessed with physical immortality, whereas people in healthy/thriving societies don't typically experience that particular ultra-fixation. (This is, I think, an extreme aspect of the broader tendency of unstable societies being obsessed with materialism, and stable societies caring far less about materialism.)
I think it's more of a systematic problem than that, that the current actions of the status quo leadership indicate they've got no confidence in their own capabilities. They treat personally attaining immortality as more plausible than raising their nepo babies into worthy heirs, building their own personal luxury apocalypse bunkers as more plausible than keeping this society functioning, building ATP's "Green Gulag" computerized surveillance state to root out dissidents rather than making a society which doesn't motivate large numbers of people to want to violently overthrow it, and so forth and so on.
Had an idea hatching in my brain for a while, but since you mention it: Been thinking of writing a cross-time ISOT scenario bringing together various people and factions ranging from the late 18th century to the early 22nd century into a "shared world".

Aside from the general turbulence and rampant conflict between different generations (as well as infighting within the same generation, such as Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia still going at it), you might also have the uptimers and downtimers bookending the 21st century — the GI Generation from the 1940s, and the Imperial Generation from the 2220s — shaking hands amicably and finding they have way more in common with each other than those "21st-century lunatics" in the middle (who they'd mutually despise). An unfortunate outcome, yes, but a frighteningly likely one regardless. :oops:
You sadist.What you get would be 21th century lunatics trying to enslave/kill all other,with help of their commie friends from 20th century.And,of course 19-20th century germans trying to take world again.
I hope,that 22th century dudes would have enough dakka to cover that.
Hey, no one said ISOTs had to be all good! ;)
Not sure it'd go so well for the 21th century status quo, because of their two mutually contradictory objectives:
  • Total technocratic control.
  • Having supply chains that encircle the world, work on a just-in-time basis and include enemy nations and very weak nations located right next to enemy nations and vulnerable to conquest used to manufacture everything essential for maintaining said total technocratic control.
There are so many places which if replaced by ISOTed counterparts of themselves would cause system-destroying cascade failures.
 

stevep

Well-known member
For democracy (or at least mass-democracy, which is what most self-described proponents of democracy see as the only "real democracy") to work as intended, you'd have to make a world of saints. Or rather: it can work, roughly as intended, for a few decades. But it deteriorates very quickly.

If you safe-guard it to have a stake-holder system (meaning any variation on: "those who put something into the system get a vote in how it's run, the free-loaders don't get a vote"), stability and durability will increase.

Unfortunately, in a system where your personal success as a politician is based on convincing the largest mass to vote for you, the easiest way to power is to expand the franchise to include more people. That is: people whose vote you can secure by promising them free stuff, and/or other benefits.

For this reason, even basically functional stake-holder systems tend to gradually deteriorate into mass-democracies, which inevitably collapse into internal conflict when the "free goodies" run out. (Which they always do, because the whole thing's based on legalised plunder.)

So then the elite loses the support of the "voting cattle", and they impose ever more restrictive means to retain their own power. So the very elite that created the mass-democracy then murders it when it turns against them. On the flip-side, the discarded masses turn to a faction of militant demagogues, who eventually succeed in overthrowing the old elite in a bloody conflict.

On a civilisational scale, that's the advent of Caesarism. Which is what we have to look forward to. We now live in the early days of the last eight decades (or so) of "modernity". And what we call democracy will not make it to the end of that period. What will replace it won't be mch better either, because this "Caesarism" is simply the continuation of the tradition that has initiated modernity (Napoleon!), has appeared in the middle of the period as well (Hitler!), and will finally dominate the end of the period in similar fashion.

But when those violent days of retribution are behind us as well, when we arrive in "the world after modernity", things will get a lot calmer again. In some part because there will no longer be a democracy as we commonly understand it nowadays. (Meaning that if there are representaive bodies, they'll be local, and the vote will not just be given to anyone.)




That's because all the established parties are just different masks worn by the same elite. Democracy is a puppet-show, and we live in the time where the masks begin to slip, and the deception is revealed.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




An excellent post! (I'm just quoting the above bit because your posr includes a big quote, and trying to quote the whole thing in turn doesn't seem to work.)

I'd like to add that what you describe really captures the mechanisms by which the "national empire" fails. There are variations, of course; your analysis is mostly about Britain, whereas (for instance) the French case was similar in the basis, but obviously different in the specifics. We do need to keep in mind that the universal empire functions by different rules, because its premises are different. You compare Britain -- and current America -- to Rome, but at some level, this is unfair, because they are both national entities, not civilisation-encompassing ones. They can't be Rome, unless they transform themselves in the way Rome transformed itself. (After all, the Republic became the Empire in the way it did, in paet because the Republic was unable to oversee the emerging Imperium properly.)

On the plus side for the Americans; the situation they're in is much like that of Republican Rome in its last century, so there's plenty of time and incentive to become the Empire. And as I've argued here: that's something I expect to happen.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




This is an issue common to modernity: it tries to ignore or even erase the past and its traditions and lessons. The modern mind-set is based on the self-absorbed premise the the world can be re-made by the hands of man. This kind of arrogance if typically mis-placed. (In fact, you achieve more when you recognise your limits. As Bacon phrased it: "Nature, to be commanded, must be obeyed.")

A system that only works if human beings change their nature to fit the system's assumptions is aways going to crash and burn.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Will you not learn? Will you truly never learn?

I'm trying to explain to you that the mass-democracy that you defend is the mask of a highly elitist system. In reality, by defending this kind of thing, you are propping up the elite. Every single time that you fail to grasp this and keep whining about "the evil Tories!!!" that you imagine to be the most baddest of them all... every single time... you are perpetuating the very system that put them in power and keeps them in power. (Even if you rotate parties once in a while... Labour is just a different mask worn by the same elite.)

You serve the elite. I'm trying to break that elite, and I advocate for a system that will give the elite far less power than it enjoys today.




Yes, your refusal to engage with what others actually say is by now well-documented. Note that, as before, I have diligently answered every single point you raise. You, also as before, hypocritically refuse others the same courtesy, and answer only with straw-men 'arguments' and cherry-picking.

You'll have to be more intellectually honest, if you want your arguments to be in any way respectable.

However, as I said above: the core issue is that you are a servant of an elite without understanding it, and you simply cannot accept the truth of the situation because that would wipe away your whole world-view. It's pointless to argue further, if you're so bent on deceiving yourself.

But as before, I must request that you actually engage with what others say, if you insist on participating in a discussion. You clearly don't want to do that, so then please just go have some oher discussion elsewhere. Because at present, it's just an endless repetition of you straw-manning, others responding in detail, you explictly ignoring the response, and just deliberately straw-manning a bit more.

That's troll behaviour.

Wonder why this has been pulled up again as active despite being from two months ago? Albeit that its a greatly cut down summary of comments from them.


One the 1st point no I won't learn an obvious falsehood. You serve the current elite by trying to silence any opposite to them and seek to suggest any opposition is impossible. However as your said elsewhere its basically the same sort of system that you hope to emerge after the disaster your calling for then several centuries of an increasingly bloody military dictatorship. That is a small elite walking all over everybody else because their got the power. The other 'points' in this section are your normal claims and misrepresentations of what I have said to fit your own desires.

There are problems with this as such a system is impossible when the bulk of the population doesn't want to be property, especially if you hope to maintain anything above medieval levels of tech. However as usual you don't like evidence that disagrees with your desires so you continue to deny them. Hence the Swiss cheese of your current argument.

On the 2nd point if anyone wants to know I suggest they read post 614 on page 31 of this thread. Its a big post because its a complete summary of the early posts of our discussion - rather than selected highlights as you have used above. They will see the facts are the reverse of what you claim. I sought to argue my case with evidence and also occasionally counter your arguments. The latter was limited because you presented very few 'facts' which were obviously wrong as I pointed out along with a lot of assertions and insults. About the only 'evidence' you presented was the claims that laissez faire was
a) the source of Britain's economic success and rise to superpower status.
b) The method by which it defeated mercantilism France

Both are false because it was only introduced ~1850 when Britain was already the world's super-power and had been since at least 1815. Similarly the defeats of Mercantilism France occurred in the 18thC and then again if that status still applied to it, to republican and then imperial France. Which again was completed by 1815.

The clip about me saying I wasn't going to response to an entire post will - as people will see if they read post 314 - related to a very long post from you largely full of assumptions and insults and largely unrelated to the economic matters we were arguing at the time. Hence it was perfectly sensible for me not to waste time on it.

I don't know why your dredged this up again but as people who read post 314 will see there is trolling but its not by me.
 

Yinko

Well-known member
When progressives are asked what conservatives believe (and why), their responses are (again, on average) far less accurate, and they struggle to formulate the reasoning.
Ordinary liberal I was talking to, pointed out that they had a very weak grasp of modern liberal political ideas and absolutely no grasp of conservative thinking. They went out, bought three books on conservative thought and... never read them.
The progressive author cannot imagine that someone believes in God
World views seep into writing. It's like why Japanese writing usually has spirits and pantheons, or why Chinese writing usually has gods that are able to be killed, or why even in things like Marvel and DC there is a single supreme being. There is a preconceived notion of what is the correct way for the world to work, and making a new world without that correct way just seems silly to people.
or modern technology being "game changers".
Well, in a sense it is. It's making the cycles progress faster. Rome took an easy gait, while the US is sprinting after them. The social changes that took Rome a hundred years or more often take the US a decade or less.
 

ATP

Well-known member
Ordinary liberal I was talking to, pointed out that they had a very weak grasp of modern liberal political ideas and absolutely no grasp of conservative thinking. They went out, bought three books on conservative thought and... never read them.

World views seep into writing. It's like why Japanese writing usually has spirits and pantheons, or why Chinese writing usually has gods that are able to be killed, or why even in things like Marvel and DC there is a single supreme being. There is a preconceived notion of what is the correct way for the world to work, and making a new world without that correct way just seems silly to people.

Well, in a sense it is. It's making the cycles progress faster. Rome took an easy gait, while the US is sprinting after them. The social changes that took Rome a hundred years or more often take the US a decade or less.
1.Notching knew,polish commies usually have good books which they never read,too.
2.Indeed.You could not comprehend sometching which is not arleady known to you.
3.Unfortunatelly.That is why USA ccould fall in 10-20 years,and we could have global,or at least western,green gulag.
 

Yinko

Well-known member
3.Unfortunatelly. That is why USA could fall in 10-20 years, and we could have global, or at least western, green gulag.
If the US falls they are taking everyone down with them. That is the nature of being the lynchpin in a global economy. I really doubt that green ideology or any of the current ideologies would survive a pre-industrial environment.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ATP

Skallagrim

Well-known member
Ordinary liberal I was talking to, pointed out that they had a very weak grasp of modern liberal political ideas and absolutely no grasp of conservative thinking. They went out, bought three books on conservative thought and... never read them.

That's regrettably recognisable behaviour. Practically the standard, in such circles. But we might hope that one day, he reads those books after all. That kind of thing has been known to dispel political conditioning quite effectively! ;)


World views seep into writing. It's like why Japanese writing usually has spirits and pantheons, or why Chinese writing usually has gods that are able to be killed, or why even in things like Marvel and DC there is a single supreme being. There is a preconceived notion of what is the correct way for the world to work, and making a new world without that correct way just seems silly to people.

Certainly true! None of us can escape our own frame of reference -- "all experience being arch" and so forth -- but we can ttempt to engage with it honestly. When I write fiction, I know I'm writing Western fiction, not (for instance) Japanese fiction. I could attempt the latter, but it would be, by definition, a Westerner's approximation of such.

If we lack all self-awareness, however, then we write without understanding our own position. Which is still no terminal flaw. But pair a lack of awareness with a vast helping of arrogance, and things go off the rails quite rapidly. That's how you get the (non-ironic!) "smug atheist in a world demonstrably full of very real gods" trope.


Well, in a sense it is. It's making the cycles progress faster. Rome took an easy gait, while the US is sprinting after them. The social changes that took Rome a hundred years or more often take the US a decade or less.

I think that in retrospect ("when it's all said and done"), we'll be able to see whether such an increase in pace was truly there. I personally suspect, based on what I observe, that such a thing may instead be an artifact of "POV bias". That is: we see these things from the ground level, so it seems like everything's going uniquely rapidly.

But if you look at older history, social discontent was simmering for ages, too, and then something like the Grachhan and Marian turnings happened in the span of a few years. So was that so slow, compared to us?

We might consider it like this: imagine we're in a car, rushing past the trees by the side of the road. It looks like a break-neck pace. Then we look at a more distant vista near the horizon, and it barely seems to move at all. But that's a matter of perspective. Our speed, relative to objects at both distances, is constant.

Events now may very well seem faster than "distant" events, is what I'm saying-- but I'm not convinced they really are appreciably faster. (But I'm not rling it out, and time will tell us the answer if we're willing to wait for it.)


If the US falls they are taking everyone down with them. That is the nature of being the lynchpin in a global economy. I really doubt that green ideology or any of the current ideologies would survive a pre-industrial environment.

If the USA collapses completely, we're indeed looking at global collapse. Indeed, anything bad enough to destroy the USA as an entity would practically be definition have to be bad enough to ruin the world.

That being said, a political system can be destroyed without the actual society or country being destroyed. Imagine even such a violnt transition as the French revolution, after all: complete disintegration of the system, but the country (though drenched in blood) was strong enough to go for an enthousiastic campaign of Napoleonic expansion within about a decade....
 

Yinko

Well-known member
Events now may very well seem faster than "distant" events, is what I'm saying-- but I'm not convinced they really are appreciably faster. (But I'm not rling it out, and time will tell us the answer if we're willing to wait for it.)
I was more so thinking of the patterns that are already in the past, like the rise of the US as a great power, the social patterns, etc. Not the current populism. From foundation to great power status took the US ~200 years, it took Rome ~500 years, the transition from great power to center of the world took an additional 20 years for the US, 150 years for Rome. In fact, as things get later into the comparison, the ratio gets tighter.
That being said, a political system can be destroyed without the actual society or country being destroyed. Imagine even such a violent transition as the French revolution, after all: complete disintegration of the system, but the country (though drenched in blood) was strong enough to go for an enthusiastic campaign of Napoleonic expansion within about a decade....
Maybe, I would think that in the current climate a violent change of system in the US on par with the French Revolution would also cause global collapse.
 

ATP

Well-known member
If the US falls they are taking everyone down with them. That is the nature of being the lynchpin in a global economy. I really doubt that green ideology or any of the current ideologies would survive a pre-industrial environment.
China,India,and some muslim states should survive ...making their own gulags.
 

Zyobot

Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
Had it in mind for a while, but since we're talking about the "on-the-ground" experience for people living through it: How many people will realize what's happening around them and see the process for what it really is, at each stage of the cycle?

Admittedly, most people don't know jack-shit about history, and even most of those who do probably haven't read enough macro-history to make quite the same "connections" between past cycles and ours that we're making here. In fact, even those who read (and for that matter, write) Atlantic articles making superficial Trump-Caesar comparisons only register it as an "ad-hoc" comparison and are otherwise ignorant of everything and everyone — the Gracchi brothers, Marius, and Sulla — building up to the arrival of a real Caesar figure who drowns The Republic in blood. :(
 

Yinko

Well-known member
Had it in mind for a while, but since we're talking about the "on-the-ground" experience for people living through it: How many people will realize what's happening around them and see the process for what it really is, at each stage of the cycle?

Admittedly, most people don't know jack-shit about history, and even most of those who do probably haven't read enough macro-history to make quite the same "connections" between past cycles and ours that we're making here. In fact, even those who read (and for that matter, write) Atlantic articles making superficial Trump-Caesar comparisons only register it as an "ad-hoc" comparison and are otherwise ignorant of everything and everyone — the Gracchi brothers, Marius, and Sulla — building up to the arrival of a real Caesar figure who drowns The Republic in blood. :(
I've heard comparisons with Rome pretty much my entire life. It wasn't an educated comparison, it was people saying "all empires fall, we are an empire, we look like we might fall". In that sense, I think people are probably pretty savvy but just lack the data points needed to connect the dots.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top