Taiwan Straights Tension

TheRomanSlayer

Kayabangan, Dugo, at Dangal
Malaysia, Singapore, and possibly the Philippines have significant Chinese minority populations, though relations between the Chinese diaspora and the indigenous populations in SE Asia are rather tense. Other than that, Canada would always be open to accepting Taiwanese refugees.
 

Sailor.X

Cold War Veteran
Founder
I will just point out that equipment does not equal doctrine. Being a CCP military officer is not the same as being a military officer in the west. China has a lot of military officers that really don't know what they are doing in combat situation. Points at the dust up China had with India last year where the CCP troops got their asses handed to them by India. Many CCP Officers got their positions through cronyism not competence. Don't let CCP propaganda about their military fool you. They don't know how really fight a modern war. All they can do is look tough.
 

TheRomanSlayer

Kayabangan, Dugo, at Dangal
I will just point out that equipment does not equal doctrine. Being a CCP military officer is not the same as being a military officer in the west. China has a lot of military officers that really don't know what they are doing in combat situation. Points at the dust up China had with India last year where the CCP troops got their asses handed to them by India. Many CCP Officers got their positions through cronyism not competence. Don't let CCP propaganda about their military fool you. They don't know how really fight a modern war. All they can do is look tough.
Another possible unintentional side effect of China getting into a war would be related to gender imbalance. Since the gender ration is heavily skewed in favor of Chinese males, a huge amount of casualties sustained would actually result in that imbalance shrinking. At the same time though, what would happen to Chinese parents if they grow old, and their only son ends up dead because of the decades old One Child Policy, and a discouragement of having daughters?
 

Sailor.X

Cold War Veteran
Founder
Another possible unintentional side effect of China getting into a war would be related to gender imbalance. Since the gender ration is heavily skewed in favor of Chinese males, a huge amount of casualties sustained would actually result in that imbalance shrinking. At the same time though, what would happen to Chinese parents if they grow old, and their only son ends up dead because of the decades old One Child Policy, and a discouragement of having daughters?
Well given what I have seen on ADV Podcast. Said old parents are fucked 6 ways to Sunday. Because the CCP does not give a damn about them. They will die from lack of help.
 

Bassoe

Well-known member
Another possible unintentional side effect of China getting into a war would be related to gender imbalance. Since the gender ration is heavily skewed in favor of Chinese males, a huge amount of casualties sustained would actually result in that imbalance shrinking.
The problem is that we're in the same situation. The oligarchy would only benefit from large numbers of their own young men who've been rendered economically redundant by automation and globalization and whom changing societal norms have denied any chance of marriage and family being drafted and sent off to get shot, before said young men radicalize against them.
 

LordsFire

Internet Wizard
The problem is that we're in the same situation. The oligarchy would only benefit from large numbers of their own young men who've been rendered economically redundant by automation and globalization and whom changing societal norms have denied any chance of marriage and family being drafted and sent off to get shot, before said young men radicalize against them.

The entire US war machine is oriented around minimizing the amount of casualties that we suffer. Keep in mind that in the entirety of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, we suffered 2420 dead over 20 years in Afghanistan, and 4,507 over 8 years in Iraq.

If there's one thing the US populace has demonstrated an extreme aversion to across all political lines (though arguably not among the political elite), it's Americans coming home in body-bags, and notably this is something that the political left has leaned into hard multiple times in living memory. We are very good at spending money rather than lives in war.

If there were serious losses in a war over China, Biden et al would get thrown out of office, with the support of most of the leftist political base.

I will just point out that equipment does not equal doctrine. Being a CCP military officer is not the same as being a military officer in the west. China has a lot of military officers that really don't know what they are doing in combat situation. Points at the dust up China had with India last year where the CCP troops got their asses handed to them by India. Many CCP Officers got their positions through cronyism not competence. Don't let CCP propaganda about their military fool you. They don't know how really fight a modern war. All they can do is look tough.

I figure the most likely result if China does fight the US and allies over Taiwan, is that it'd end up looking a lot like what happened to Iraq in 1991. However, I force myself to keep in mind that what probably will be is far from a certainty.

In the realm of probability though, china loses barring overwhelming political sabotage, like in Vietnam. Without that, it'd take more or less a miracle.
 

The Immortal Watch Dog

Well-known member
Hetman
"If"

There's no If.

The Pentagon is owned by China, so is the guy whose in the Whitehouse. People need to realize the US defense apparatus is infested with traitors and wumaos. Good little Gweilos who will jump at their masters beck and call.

We will lose any military conflict with China..not because the average American soldier is inferior, or because the Sergeants are disloyal. But because our leadership is comprised entirely of oathbreakers. And because they will purposefully throw any military conflict that threatens their masters.

We're going to lose Taiwan and Japan and Korea will end up standing alone, unless the next person in the Whitehouse has the sense and the courage to conduct a total purge of the DOD, the State Department and the armed services branches and does something to limit the power of the defense lobby. Then, only then can the US win this and win it with something approaching easy.

But not with current leadership...Hell some of them might even engineer accidental friendly fire incidents that'll sink US carriers.
 

The Immortal Watch Dog

Well-known member
Hetman
If that’s the case, the US also risks losing SE Asia as well.

The US's best bet is to back Japanese imperial restorationists, then just hand them as many nukes as possible and a promise to turn a blind eye to any atrocities they commit against China.

And then make the same promise to India.

We need like..a decade at a minimum to unfuck our astoundingly disloyal and corrupt intelligence/defense apparatus.
 

Scottty

Well-known member
Founder
The US's best bet is to back Japanese imperial restorationists, then just hand them as many nukes as possible and a promise to turn a blind eye to any atrocities they commit against China.

And then make the same promise to India.

We need like..a decade at a minimum to unfuck our astoundingly disloyal and corrupt intelligence/defense apparatus.

Sounds like you want the most populous part of the world to nuke itself to rubble. At least, that would be the effect of what you are advocating for.
 

The Immortal Watch Dog

Well-known member
Hetman
Sounds like you want the most populous part of the world to nuke itself to rubble. At least, that would be the effect of what you are advocating for.

Asia does this every few centuries or so, always.

The West has never been able to successfully stop it and I'm not particularly fond of the notion that we as the defacto hyperpower with all our issues with corruption and treachery have some moral obligation to risk the annihilation of every major city on the West Coast to wade into one of the most backwards, hateful, imperialistic and bloodthirsty corners of the world to stop their cultural norms....Especially when they all think we're vermin who belong either as their slaves or out of their way.


edit-Especially when we've been so infiltrated by Beijing's intelligence apparatus that we're one more rigged election away from becoming a Chinese vassal. We need to fix ourselves first...Not worry about some of the oldest and most treacherous societies on earth.

Best to just let them fight each other, as they always have.
 

LordsFire

Internet Wizard
"If"

There's no If.

The Pentagon is owned by China, so is the guy whose in the Whitehouse. People need to realize the US defense apparatus is infested with traitors and wumaos. Good little Gweilos who will jump at their masters beck and call.

We will lose any military conflict with China..not because the average American soldier is inferior, or because the Sergeants are disloyal. But because our leadership is comprised entirely of oathbreakers. And because they will purposefully throw any military conflict that threatens their masters.

We're going to lose Taiwan and Japan and Korea will end up standing alone, unless the next person in the Whitehouse has the sense and the courage to conduct a total purge of the DOD, the State Department and the armed services branches and does something to limit the power of the defense lobby. Then, only then can the US win this and win it with something approaching easy.

But not with current leadership...Hell some of them might even engineer accidental friendly fire incidents that'll sink US carriers.

Good grief. Every time I think 'Maybe he's not as crazy as I remember,' I come across one of your posts like this.

This isn't a sober analysis of a serious threat, it's hysteria.

There's a lot of problems with what you've posted here, but probably the biggest problem of them all is as follows:

No matter how many traitors and incompetents further up the chain of command try to sabotage things, every man who gets to the point where he is under fire is going to work to save his own life. And in a modern naval/air threat environment, that means killing the enemy before he can kill you, because it will take far too long to get out of range for running to be a viable option.


No, the influence games China has played, the people they've bribed, the technology and intelligence they've stolen, this is all to try to keep America from getting into war in the first place. Sure, if war comes, they'll also try to use it to degrade our ability to fight them effectively, but there's a fundamental difference between a corrupt official taking bribes and an outright enemy agent:

An enemy agent will actively work to destroy you. The corrupt official is in it for himself, which means that risking his career, much less his life, to take a stand/actions that would clearly get him fired, voted out of office, or outright tried for treason, is not something that he's going to do.

The problem with bribing corrupt officials to do things for you, is that you get what you pay for. The temporary 'friendship' of corrupt officials.

It's one thing to let China get away with manipulating currency markets, to pretend that they don't owe the world a debt in blood and treasure for the Wu Flu, to let them dump shitty steel on your markets. It's another thing entirely to let them crash the entire high-end tech industry for the next few years. There's a lot more money and influence in that.
 

The Immortal Watch Dog

Well-known member
Hetman
I guess cope posting helps but we have 10,000 Benedict Anrolds and all the loyalists are being thrown out of every level of society.
 
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Scottty

Well-known member
Founder
This is reminding me of a discussion I saw somewhere, about why in WW1 the insane "human wave" tactics against enemy machine-guns went on for as long as it did. The clowns in power weren't just stupid, they also hated normal people, and were delighted to be able to send so many of them to their deaths.

Sometimes, it's sufficiently advanced stupidity being indistinguishable from malice. But sometimes, it's actual malice, disguising itself as stupidity.

Same probably goes on the Chinese side.
 

The Immortal Watch Dog

Well-known member
Hetman
To be fair, if Truman didn't hold people like Doug out Dug back America would very likely have smashed China and North Korea to pieces.

The US also has the means to win this war.

But the people who run the country want the US to lose and they'll do everything in their power to ensure that the US is blown out of the pacific. It benefits them, as it benefits their masters.

The leaders of every western nation on earth barring a few exceptions want to destroy their own societies. Possibly up too and including killing large percentages of their own populations.

We need to accept this and elect people willing to begin treason trials and a new form of McCarthyism.

We can fight and beat China. But the rot has to be removed first.
 

Arch Dornan

Oh, lovely. They've sent me a mo-ron.
To be fair, if Truman didn't hold people like Doug out Dug back America would very likely have smashed China and North Korea to pieces.

The US also has the means to win this war.

But the people who run the country want the US to lose and they'll do everything in their power to ensure that the US is blown out of the pacific. It benefits them, as it benefits their masters.

The leaders of every western nation on earth barring a few exceptions want to destroy their own societies. Possibly up too and including killing large percentages of their own populations.

We need to accept this and elect people willing to begin treason trials and a new form of McCarthyism.

We can fight and beat China. But the rot has to be removed first.
His only mistake was not telling his boys to do a backup plan in case Mao went through with his threats so they wouldn't be taken by surprise and forced back even as they got surrounded and gave them a good thrashing.
 

AnimalNoodles

Well-known member
It depends on who is in the White House.

If the US commits to helping Taiwan fight off China, the war will be very, very short.

Short wars rarely have the time to become wildly unpopular at home.

I wouldnt bet on it. China doesnt have the resources to invade Taiwan, but it does have the resources to seriously challenge the american navy in the waters around taiwan
 

AnimalNoodles

Well-known member
Do you mean the missiles?

I mean their navy is modern and powerful. 70% of their current navy is rated as "modern" by RAND. Its not ready to challenge the USA over the pacific. They still lack weight, firepower and logistical power. But in the east china sea? Absolutely, esp in conjunction with shorebased ASM.

Their current navy looks like this, and they are going to be putting over 100 new ships into the water over the next decade or so, all of which will be modern blue water ships.


3 aircraft carriers
4 landing helicopter dock
8 amphibious transport docks
32 landing ship tanks
33 landing ship mediums
51 destroyers
49 frigates
70 corvettes
109 missile boats
26 submarine chasers
17+ gunboats
36 mine countermeasure vessels
79 submarines
19 replenishment ships
232 auxiliaries
 

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