Alternate History Ideas and Discussion

Zyobot

Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
As nice as all that sounds, the leftoids will do anything they can to smear Nixon and prevent a second election. The question is what they can do.

Speaking of which, I wonder how the 1972 election will play out in the scenario @Skallagrim outlined? It was already an FDR-style blowout IOTL, but with Nixon’s popularity (presumably) even greater here, the odds of him beating Roosevelt ’36 in one or both key metrics (the popular vote and Electoral College) look pretty decent to me.
 

stevep

Well-known member
Hey, I want some love, too! :p

Anyway, good to have you back, Steve. Sorry again about your friend, though going by your post, I guess he’s on the road to recovery now.

Only temporary for the moment. His daughter came back from uni for the weekend so I get to spend a couple of days at home - well 3 actually because she came back a day early - but will be back with him Sunday evening. Hopefully the bone will start knitting again over the next few weeks and he will be able to be more independent. However definitely not going to be in a position to walk his dog safely for a while as Indie can be rather an handful.

As such I will be on and off the next few weeks until hopefully things settle down. At Chaz's most of the week-days but nipping back for 2-3 hours during the day for a break and a brief check of my emails and the like.
 

Zyobot

Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
Only temporary for the moment. His daughter came back from uni for the weekend so I get to spend a couple of days at home - well 3 actually because she came back a day early - but will be back with him Sunday evening. Hopefully the bone will start knitting again over the next few weeks and he will be able to be more independent. However definitely not going to be in a position to walk his dog safely for a while as Indie can be rather an handful.

As such I will be on and off the next few weeks until hopefully things settle down. At Chaz's most of the week-days but nipping back for 2-3 hours during the day for a break and a brief check of my emails and the like.

In that case, take the time you need. Regrettable to hear about your friend’s injury, but if you’re helping him pull through, then that’s what matters most. 💪
 

Skallagrim

Well-known member
As nice as all that sounds, the leftoids will do anything they can to smear Nixon and prevent a second election. The question is what they can do.
Speaking of which, I wonder how the 1972 election will play out in the scenario @Skallagrim outlined? It was already an FDR-style blowout IOTL, but with Nixon’s popularity (presumably) even greater here, the odds of him beating Roosevelt ’36 in one or both key metrics (the popular vote and Electoral College) look pretty decent to me.
If Nixon ends the Vietnam War in a way the hawks can call honourable and with speed that the doves can't reasonably critique, then he's in for a massive victory. He's just rendered the core left-wing points of agitation moot. They are left flailing, and the GOP can honestly say that they've delivered exactly what Nixon promised. Considering that he didn't actually do poorly during his OTL term, I think he'll easily win re-election and it's going to be really overwhelming. The Dems will put up a sacrificial lamb against him, although they sort of did that in OTL, didn't they?

In '74, the Dems get crushed, too. GOP control of the legislature will help Nixon's ambitions along nicely. Nixon's fairly moderate policy positions would be completely vindicated, and with counter-culture rendered moot, politics would be more centrist in general. I think that there still won't be much of a chance for the Dems in '76, and the Nixon gets his own equivalent to H.W. Bush to succed him. I think that'll end the same way, too: the Dems will aim for a reversal of fortunes in '80, when Nixon's legaxy has worn off.

The combo of more centrist politics and reduced chances for the GOP in '80, means there will presumably be no Reagan (or equivalent). On the other side, no Carter, no Jerry Brown, and certainly no fruitcakes like Dukakis.

Politics will be quite different in tone. Fewer extremes. The negative long-term result may be more of a centrist UniParty establishment, primarily opposed by re-invigorated fringes on both sides as we go into the '90s. Those fringes may even seek each other out, and become the "new opposition". One might imagine a scenario where in the mid-'90s, a ticket along the lines of Clinton/Romney faces off against, say, Perot/Sanders. Can you imagine?
 
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Zyobot

Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
Considering that he didn't actually do poorly during his OTL term, I think he'll easily win re-election in '74. The Dems will put up a sacrificial lamb against him. They'll just let all the party's loonies run, and then see them get crushed. And then they'll hope for a reversal of fortunes in '80, when Nixon leaves office.

So... OTL '72 results, save for Nixon winning Massachusetts this time?

If so, that'd make him the first (and quite possibly only) president to win in a fifty-state sweep, greater than FDR '36 or Reagan '84 IOTL. Probably an even bigger popular-vote share than what LBJ got, too, seeing as 60.7 percent for Nixon '72 in real life isn't that far behind the 61.1 percent achieved by Johnson '64... and could very well break that record IATL, for reasons already mentioned.
 

Skallagrim

Well-known member
So... OTL '72 results, save for Nixon winning Massachusetts this time?

If so, that'd make him the first (and quite possibly only) president to win in a fifty-state sweep, greater than FDR '36 or Reagan '84 IOTL. Probably an even bigger popular-vote share than what LBJ got, too, seeing as 60.7 percent for Nixon '72 in real life isn't that far behind the 61.1 percent achieved by Johnson '64... and could very well break that record IATL, for reasons already mentioned.
I only just now noticed that with my sleep-deprived brain, I totally messed up the years in my post. o_O (Edited now.)

Anyway, yes: I think Nixon has a pretty good chance of going for a clean sweep.

This would, as I said, have major implications. Although in the long-term, it won't just be somehow "all good". Things even out, they always do.

One fun side-effect is that with Vietnam ended earlier and with a result the USA can be proud of, and with Nixon widely seen as either revered (by the GOP) or at least grudgingly respected (by the Dems), the formative years of one G. Lucas will be very different. If he ever makes Star Wars, it's going to be a different beast!
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
His ploy to end the Vietnam War early in his term has to actually work. He used the 'madman' theory, suggesting he was willing to start all out global nuclear war to avoid losing in Vietnam. The USSR figured he was serious, the North Vietnamese didn't. (Or rather: their grasp of geopolitics seems to have been so limited that they simply didn't understand the implications.)

If the USSR gets scared enough, and makes very clear to North Vietnam what the risk is (and that if it happens, the USSR will not back them), then Nixon can get a negotiated peace in 1969. Vietnam will be divided like Korea, and Nixon can call it "peace with honour". The anti-war counterculture evaporates in the face of no more war. The American servicemen can say that their many sacrifices meant something.

Nixon ends up the unifying figure who healed a terrible wound.

We may be reasonably certain that these ATL outcomes would prevent the whole Watergate thing later on, because Nixon would be in a very different position by then.


For bonus points:

1) Appoint conservative Supreme Justices to appease the GOP's right wing. This means that there are conservative Justices taking the place of Burger, Blackmun and Powell. (These three conservative Justices, together with White and Rehnquist, will have a majority to make Roe v. Wade go the other way.)

2) In return for a very conservative Court, the conservative wing will have to agree to no War on Drugs, and addiction to be treated purely as a medical problem, rather than a fundamentally criminal one. That solves a lot of future problems, keeps the future drug cartels from essentially getting state protectionism, and underscores Nixon's reputation as "healing the nation".

3) Any other VP than Spiro Agnew, please.

What's your source for the Soviet Union believing Nixon's madman theory? I'm just curious.

I like your bonus points here, BTW. :)

@sillygoose What do you think that the male-female ratio among age 25-49 cohorts in Britain and France in 1950 would have been without the 1940 Fall of France? Here's a map of it in real life:


3fa9c06c73db974989d1bb4fea41625f11bfa905.png


And for that matter, just how much better would this ratio have been for both Germany and Austria in this TL?
 

sillygoose

Well-known member
What's your source for the Soviet Union believing Nixon's madman theory? I'm just curious.

I like your bonus points here, BTW. :)

@sillygoose What do you think that the male-female ratio among age 25-49 cohorts in Britain and France in 1950 would have been without the 1940 Fall of France? Here's a map of it in real life:


3fa9c06c73db974989d1bb4fea41625f11bfa905.png


And for that matter, just how much better would this ratio have been for both Germany and Austria in this TL?
I doubt the accuracy of that given the male death in WW2 in France. Unless it was all made good with immigration.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
I doubt the accuracy of that given the male death in WW2 in France. Unless it was all made good with immigration.

It might have been made good with immigration, but also please keep in mind that the male-female ratio at birth is slightly over 100. Possibly as high as 105 naturally (obviously higher in China and India where there is sex-selective abortion). So, this ratio might have dropped from 105 to 100 in France as a result of WWII. Also worth noting that a lot of the French who were killed in WWII were females, especially Holocaust victims and to some extent accidental victims of Allied bombings as well.

There are historical population pyramids for France here by single age year:


Though if this link does not work for you, you can also look at this animation:


France_Animated_Population_Pyramid.gif


1950 France does not appear to have had a surplus of females relative to males at ages 25-49.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
'AHC: An independent Transylvania comes into being during the 20th century. Bonus points if it gets its own cantonal system like Switzerland has'

 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Of course he would, it's just that these attempts would not have organised backing of the USSR.



The consequence of an errant shell. During the Battle of the Yellow Sea, Russians get a lucky hit on ammo storage of Togo's flagship and a bit later Nicky has good grace to die early in an accident.

Would significantly help if Nicky had a non-hemophiliac son to succeed him. Could theoretically be done with a butterfly effect in the mid- or even late 1890s.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
'AHC: A 20th century liberalization of the US's immigration laws (specifically 1920s immigration quotas) without World War II'
 

Buba

A total creep
WI - Italy, broke after the Ottoman War of 1911, in 1913 offers to sell its Horn of Africa possessions.
1 - Erythrea is offered to Germany.
What happens?
Is Germany interested?
Does Britain or France protest? How strongly?
Do they outbid Berlin? Offer something in exchange?

2 - Somalia - open bidding - who'd be interested?
 

stevep

Well-known member
WI - Italy, broke after the Ottoman War of 1911, in 1913 offers to sell its Horn of Africa possessions.
1 - Erythrea is offered to Germany.
What happens?
Is Germany interested?
Does Britain or France protest? How strongly?
Do they outbid Berlin? Offer something in exchange?

2 - Somalia - open bidding - who'd be interested?

Good question and not sure of the answer. I suspect with the tensions of the time that Britain especially would probably be unhappy with the idea and could well seek to outbid Germany. Basically the Suez canal and the route to India were seen as vital to the maintenance of the empire and while a German colony in Somalia would itself be isolated and vulnerable it could provide the base for forces that could threat either sea traffic through the Red Sea and possibly also to threaten Kenya from the north as well as from the south [from German E Africa]. I suspect such fears would be overblown but they might well not be seen that way at the time.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
WI - Italy, broke after the Ottoman War of 1911, in 1913 offers to sell its Horn of Africa possessions.
1 - Erythrea is offered to Germany.
What happens?
Is Germany interested?
Does Britain or France protest? How strongly?
Do they outbid Berlin? Offer something in exchange?

2 - Somalia - open bidding - who'd be interested?

Might Russia, as a fellow Orthodox Christian country, offer loans to Ethiopia so that Ethiopia could buy and annex one or both of these territories?
 

stevep

Well-known member
Might Russia, as a fellow Orthodox Christian country, offer loans to Ethiopia so that Ethiopia could buy and annex one or both of these territories?

Well that's an interesting idea. It could be a way of extending Russian influence as well although Ethiopia would definitely be more interested in Eriteria than in Italian Somalia as the former has much better access to the sea than the Somalian lands, which Ethiopia has never held and are on the other side of the Ogaden desert.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Well that's an interesting idea. It could be a way of extending Russian influence as well although Ethiopia would definitely be more interested in Eriteria than in Italian Somalia as the former has much better access to the sea than the Somalian lands, which Ethiopia has never held and are on the other side of the Ogaden desert.

Railroads can be built to connect Ethiopia to Italian Somalia through the Ogaden Desert. But Yes, Eritrea will be easier to access for Ethiopia. But why not have two pathways to the sea for Ethiopia if it can acquire them both? France, after all, would be able to blockade any Ethiopian naval force in Eritrea due to France's control of Djibouti, but it would be harder for France to blockade Italian Somalia, I think. Not impossible, of course, but harder.

Having Russia build military and/or naval bases in Ethiopia would also be interesting, though I don't know just how the other Great Powers would actually take news of this. Would they feel provoked? Ethiopia could of course say that it's for self-defense, but would the other Great Powers actually buy that justification?
 

Eparkhos

Well-known member
'Otto II captured by Byzantines at Stilo/Cape Crotone'

In 982, HR emperor Otto II invaded southern Italy intending to drive out the Byzantines and Arabs. His first pitched battle against the Arabs was a complete disaster that ended in Otto being chased into the sea and swimming for his life to a Greek merchantman that had stopped to watch the battle. The Greeks somehow didn't recognize him and dropped him off at a nearby port.

What if Otto had been recognized? The best option from the Greek merchants' vantage is probably to hand him over to the Byzantines for a massive ransom. This leaves Otto in Byzantine captivity, likely on a forced trip to Constantinople. What happens next? Basil II's position is still weak, while HRE rule in Italy is half-dead AIOTL.
 

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