Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[lloyd007]

This is a very stupid game for Putin to be playing right now.

As long as the war is 'just' in Ukraine, a lot of people can convince themselves that the war is 'over there,' contained in some 'other place' that they don't have to worry about touching them.

Pushing it out to the far side of Ukraine is going to make a lot of people, especially in that part of Europe, get a hard wake-up call that no, this isn't about Ukraine 'really being part of Russia' or some BS like that. It's flat expansionism.

It also would create a new wave of public awareness about the war, making it the new big thing in the news all over again, and that's the last thing the Russians need.

Zimmerman Telegram 2.0. IIRC when they did a recruitment drive in Transnitria they got either three or five volunteers and an exodus of fighting age men from the area.

 

[Marduk]

1 - Does Russia have the forces to expand the war into Moldova?
2 - besides bad move because evul!, I agree with @LordsFire that PR wise it is bad. Like baaad! Ukraine is "old news", Moldova would be "new news".

Their hope is that Moldova is in a similar state as Ukraine in 2014, and so it will not be able to muster up much opposition to their few special forces.

True…but Putin and his cronies are employing a more unique sense of “logic”, thus one has to look at it from their perspective to see what exactly is going on…and taking Moldova means more than jsut expanding Russias borders. It means making it theoretically more difficult to ships arms and amunition to Ukraine.

Not shipping those through Moldova anyway. Romania and Poland are the main routes.
Taking over part or all of Moldova was probably planned as a follow-up to Ukraine in settling old business and it would be pretty easy if they were holding southern Ukraine... but they aren't.
They could also see it as a "now or never" moment, because even if it's a shitty moment now, once the war with Ukraine ends, it will be even harder for them to get forces into the place (at risk of restarting the war in Ukraine), not to mention sufficient delays possibly leading to NATO or EU troops in Moldova, locking off the force option for good.

 

[Lord Sovereign]

I think a NATO response would be triggered if Russia put soldiers in Moldova. Putin really has lost his grip in reality.

 

[Tiamat]

It’s more desperation IMO. Putins riding the tiger now and can’t afford to get off, at least not without some form of “victory” he can sell to the serfs. Taking control of Moldova, or installing a puppet regime that he hopes will eventually allow him to integrate Moldova, just like he apparently has plans for Belarus will help. It alone wouldn’t likely be enough of course.

That said? If Russia were to attempt this or pull it off I can’t see Romania letting it slide.

Russia doesn’t just want more defensive points and resources. It needs HUMAN resources to, it integrate by force if necessary to make up for the demographic collapse it’s in right now.

 

[Zachowon]

That’s not enough. Russia wants Belarus reintegrated with Russia.

EDIT: If Russia takes control of Belarus that allows it to exploit the potential Suwalki Gap utilizing its holdout in Kaliningrad. Poland could find a chunk of its own northeast territory cut off along with the Baltic States if thr proverbial balloon goes up.

Do it Russia.
Make every warfighter I have ever done come true.
Let's the US show you what overestimating your opponent does

 

[Tiamat]

Do it Russia.
Make every warfighter I have ever done come true.
Let's the US show you what overestimating your opponent does

Respectfully let’s not tempt fate here?

 

[Carrot of Truth]

Respectfully let’s not tempt fate here?

To know how this will all turn out we must consult the holy scriptures of prophet Clancy.

 

[Lord Sovereign]

Funny to think of Clancy, given much of his work was orientated more around the Soviet Union. As I understand, that military was a good deal more potent than the mess of today.

Russia needs to end this war and carry out root and stem reform of its military, economy, and manufacturing, not open another front in Moldavia. Putin is a fool by this point.

 

[Tiamat]

Funny to think of Clancy, given much of his work was orientated more around the Soviet Union. As I understand, that military was a good deal more potent than the mess of today.

Russia needs to end this war and carry out root and stem reform of its military, economy, and manufacturing, not open another front in Moldavia. Putin is a fool by this point.

Again, one has to think more like Putin and his circle and less like a Westerner to understand. Doesn't make it better of course.

The Russian military alone has suffered issues of corruption dating back to the time of the Tsars. While unfortunately corruption is an issue that permeates all societies including the U.S., Russia's problems are systemic and endemic and that isn't going away anytime soon.

 

[Jormungandr]

At this point, Russia needs to be broken and has its proverbial teeth kicked in to the point where it's shitting molars.

They won't ever stop trying to expand. They want Europe under their thumb again, like in the ol' Soviet/Russian Empire days, as being expansionist is part of what they are as a nation.

They need to be broken to stop this from ever happening again, and if that means that the country finally Balkanizes into different states, all the better.

The only problem is the elephant in the room: nukes.

Conventionally, they're fucked. But the "nuclear question" is what it comes down to.

Putin is deluded and desperate enough to try anything at this point, including a 'tactical' nuclear response/thuggery -- even though Russia's nuclear infrastructure is completely decayed, all it takes is one missile to be working. One.

Basically, our best hope is if one of his generals finally sees what an unhinged lunatic he has become and puts a 7.62mm in the back of his head one day, while he's eating breakfast or shitting on the golden "porcelain throne" he thinks he possesses.

If Putin does try to annex or invade Moldova, Romania is going to step in. And when Romania steps in, it'll drag NATO in one way or another.

 

[King Arts]

At this point, Russia needs to be broken and has its proverbial teeth kicked in to the point where it's shitting molars.

They won't ever stop trying to expand. They want Europe under their thumb again, like in the ol' Soviet/Russian Empire days, as being expansionist is part of what they are as a nation.

They need to be broken to stop this from ever happening again, and if that means that the country finally Balkanizes into different states, all the better.

The only problem is the elephant in the room: nukes.

Conventionally, they're fucked. But the "nuclear question" is what it comes down to.

Putin is deluded and desperate enough to try anything at this point, including a 'tactical' nuclear response/thuggery -- even though Russia's nuclear infrastructure is completely decayed, all it takes is one missile to be working. One.

Basically, our best hope is if one of his generals finally sees what an unhinged lunatic he has become and puts a 7.62mm in the back of his head one day, while he's eating breakfast or shitting on the golden "porcelain throne" he thinks he possesses.

If Putin does try to annex or invade Moldova, Romania is going to step in. And when Romania steps in, it'll drag NATO in one way or another.

Would Romania actually step in? Granted Romania would hate Russia doing that from many reasons, from Moldavia being part of Romania until Russia took it after ww2, and seeing the people there as Romanians and does not want to see them oppressed by Russia. But as long as the two nations don't actually unite would Romania actually send in forces publicly?

 

[Zachowon]

All tactical nukes will do is make NATO actively get invovled.
And then it won't be as slow as it is now. NATO will show Russia what true war is.

Respectfully let’s not tempt fate here?

Tiamat.
All of you vets here and me.
This is what we signed up for.
A LSCO fight against Russia or China.

@The Whispering Monk knows what I mean.

I tempt fate because I don't want the US military to become like that of our adversaries.
I want us to remain the best by doing what ever it takes to keep us there.

 

[Zachowon]

Would Romania actually step in? Granted Romania would hate Russia doing that from many reasons, from Moldavia being part of Romania until Russia took it after ww2, and seeing the people there as Romanians and does not want to see them oppressed by Russia. But as long as the two nations don't actually unite would Romania actually send in forces publicly?

Romania has troops in Maldova

 

[Jormungandr]

Would Romania actually step in? Granted Romania would hate Russia doing that from many reasons, from Moldavia being part of Romania until Russia took it after ww2, and seeing the people there as Romanians and does not want to see them oppressed by Russia. But as long as the two nations don't actually unite would Romania actually send in forces publicly?

It's one of their berserk buttons. There's no doubt in my mind Romania would go fucking ape if Putin/Russia tried anything fishy.

 

[King Arts]

Romania has troops in Maldova

Did not know that? I thought Moldova tried to do the whole neutral thing.

It's one of their berserk buttons. There's no doubt in my mind Romania would go fucking ape if Putin/Russia tried anything fishy.

I mean I know they would hate it, like I said that place used to be Romanian until Russia took it and oppressed the local Romanians and even forcibly changed the alphabet. They speak Romanian there but they use the Cyrlic alphabet instead of the normal Latin one, because of policies that the Soviets did that can be called genocidal.

But I just think that Romania would see that they can't beat Russia back, and they don't want to risk being abandoned by the west like Poland was after ww2.

 

[Zachowon]

Did not know that? I thought Moldova tried to do the whole neutral thing.


I mean I know they would hate it, like I said that place used to be Romanian until Russia took it and oppressed the local Romanians and even forcibly changed the alphabet. They speak Romanian there but they use the Cyrlic alphabet instead of the normal Latin one, because of policies that the Soviets did that can be called genocidal.

But I just think that Romania would see that they can't beat Russia back, and they don't want to risk being abandoned by the west like Poland was after ww2.

Romania is in NATO.
And after what is going on in Ukraine, I doubt they would have enough forces to threaten Romania

 

[King Arts]

Romania is in NATO.
And after what is going on in Ukraine, I doubt they would have enough forces to threaten Romania

I know, but there is a fear at least a little bit that the west might abandon eastern european nations just ask ATP he says he thinks that Biden and America and democrats would be willing to give Poland to Russia. It's probably not true, but there is still a bit of doubt would America really help?

 

[Zachowon]

I know, but there is a fear at least a little bit that the west might abandon eastern european nations just ask ATP he says he thinks that Biden and America and democrats would be willing to give Poland to Russia. It's probably not true, but there is still a bit of doubt would America really help?

No.
Because if that was the case would we send a large contigent of the US Military too Eastern Europe?
Poland outside of ATP seems to think otherwise.
Ask @Marduk @Batrix2070

 

[Scooby Doo]

I know, but there is a fear at least a little bit that the west might abandon eastern european nations just ask ATP he says he thinks that Biden and America and democrats would be willing to give Poland to Russia. It's probably not true, but there is still a bit of doubt would America really help?

If Russia can barely take Ukraine how are they going to take Poland?

Ukraine diminished some ridiculous numbers of Infantry and tanks and they're not going down any time soon. Even if Ukraine surrendered tomorrow it's still going to take tens of thousands of troops minimum to continuously hold it.

 

[King Arts]

No.
Because if that was the case would we send a large contigent of the US Military too Eastern Europe?
Poland outside of ATP seems to think otherwise.
Ask @Marduk @Batrix2070

If Russia can barely take Ukraine how are they going to take Poland?

Ukraine diminished some ridiculous numbers of Infantry and tanks and they're not going down any time soon. Even if Ukraine surrendered tomorrow it's still going to take tens of thousands of troops minimum to continuously hold it.

I know that America would send troops and help. And so do most people, I'm just saying there still might be a bit of nervousness. among eastern europe. We know that the situation in the modern day is diffrent from what happened after ww2. But still it is remembered and subconsciously there might be doubt.