Conservatism and the Environment

Ok, good to know you are a well read individual and have a wide scope of experiences. It also shows you understand the issues with academic/research paywalls and how they are a hindrance to wider understanding of issues.

For the pine beetles, I am know part of the issue is overgrown forests. Believe me, I feel too much human development in the backcountry, and thus hindering natural fire cycles, is a big part of it. However, the simple fact is winters around here, over the average, have not been cold enough, long enough to truly hinder them, regardless of backcountry development. It takes multiple weeks of below freezing temps to kill the larva (IIRC) and even with good forest management, if it's not getting cold enough to kill most of the larva, the bugs will spread. They can jump/fly something like 50 meters without wind assist, and that means they can cross a lot of terrain relatively quickly. I think the best solution is large scale logging operations to make up for lack of fires, and luckily beetle kill wood is structurally sound and the blue stain in it actually adds some value for aesthetics. Also, and this was something I found surprising, but pine beetles can make a good protein source if harvested, ground, and baked into things; found this out in my old grad program.

Now, in regards to the glaciers, it is not just one glacier or just a few. Majority of glaciers in Alaska are retreating, and the glaciers in Glacier National Park are almost gone. They even had to import snow to Anchorage for the Ididurod Sleddog Race a few years back, because they had gotten so little snow, and the last few years haven't been a whole lot better. Yes, some of the stuff in Greenland has been overblown, and the recent issues in Antarctica is more volcanic than atmospheric in origin. But I can remember being in both Alaska and Glacier National Park when they both had substantial glaciers and seen the retreats with my own eyes. I've also seen how fast the snow packs in the Rockies disappear, and because my family is/was connected to the ski industry, I understand how vital those snow packs are for both water and recreation.

Though, and please don't take this the wrong way, the 'the plural of anecdotes is not data' is a phrase that is used by a lot of people on both sides to dismiss stories and experiences that don't line up with the narrative or agenda someone wants to push. It is best if, instead of using that phrase, you actually accept that anecdotes are just as valid as hard data as individual cases, and work to address those stories/experiences, instead of trying to gloss over them or downplay them. Yes, policy cannot be made purely out of anecdotes, but neither should individual experiences and stories be ignored because they don't fit the data.

Now, seeing as you do seem to have substantial experience debating this and working in the field, I want to ask if you have ever considered taking a teaching position related to this at a more conservatively minded college or university? Because the way you broke that all down and addressed the issue was superb, and speaks highly of your ability to impart this information to a wide audience.

I'm going to reply first to @Sol Zagato for a few of his points then pivot to you, if you don't mind me quoting yours since the meat of this reply will be to you and I don't want to clutter things up in a spaghetti.

For your point 1, Sol, you are right, this is typical academic shenanigans, however I hope you realize just how small the actual field of climate science actually is. It's a few dozen 'respected climate scientists' who control the grant money, research papers in the field, etc, and they freeze out anybody who dissents from their orthodoxy no matter how well qualified they are. For example, look up Dr Willie Soong and what the climate team did to him when he dared to dissent from their zeitgeist. In addition, I strongly recommend following the money trail that is in the climate science field, and looking at their past predictions and comparing them to reality. They're batting .000 so far.

For your point 2, I would argue that climate science is fully corrupted at this point, to the same degree as social anthropology (not physical anthropology BTW, which was my particular interest, although it is amusing watching so many heads explode once we figured out how to read Mayan script LOL) The base pool of scientists is far smaller, they are far more selective in who they admit to the pool in the first place (dissent from the orthodoxy is Not Allowed you evil DENIER you) and they have ready-made constituencies who stand to profit enormously from their work (take a look at the correlation between the financial backers of the climate science crowd and the so-called 'green energy' industry, and prepare to throw up) so long as it fits the narrative. If reality fails to conform, they have models to prove that reality is wrong and their narrative survives.

Now to @Bacle , I apologize for the digression but I did promise Sol a response.

I agree on excessive human development into the backcountry is harmful for truly sustainable forestry practices. However I think you are putting too much stock into cold killing the beetles in the first place. In the past there would be annual fires that would both massively thin out the undergrowth and destroy infected trees (burning out the beetles in the process). Now there is just the freeze cycle. In much of the region the freeze lines have, historically, varied over a rather wide range (take a look at the research into vole ranges done in the California Rockies that show remains of nests well above the modern average snow line from within the last few centuries.) Therefore, reliance on winter freezes over much of the infested area is... problematic to begin with. Combined with the El Nino and La Nina cycles, which have significant impact on Southwestern US climate, and the over reliance on freeze cycles for beetle control becomes irresponsible.

Honestly, while I disagree that climate change is a serious catastrophic issue, things like land use, habitat destruction, etc are critical issues that do not receive nearly enough attention. I would strongly encourage everybody reading this to cut down on or eliminate palm oil from your diet, for example, despite the supposed health benefits. Palm oil harvesting is utterly annihilating critical habitats through Asia and Oceania. I would also strongly encourage people to pay attention to the sourcing for any fish they purchase. These are the little things that can actually have a serious impact (don't get me started on the lunacy about straws and plastic bags in the US. Fun fact, almost none of the plastics in the ocean are sourced from the US, it's China, Malaysia, Indonesia and India where it comes from).

The over focus on catastrophic climate change is wonderful for certain business sectors (green energy fraudsters, politicians, etc) but meaningless. All the latest 15 year number really is is 'we have 15 years to come up with another excuse why we need to change the projection to another 15 years out'. The same people squawking this were saying the exact same thing 15 years ago. According to them, by 2012 winter was supposed to be a thing of the past..

Now to glaciers in Alaska. Many are shrinking, but many are expanding as well, and Siberian glaciers are generally advancing as well. The main culprit isn't temperature (which generally is below freezing) but rather changes in rain/snow fall patterns resulting in the glaciers being starved of water to form ice. Again look at the shifts in the North Pacific Oscillation in combination with the typical El Nino/La Nina oscillations. The NPO is trending further west in the recent past, bringing the precipitation more to Siberia than Alaska. However there are signs that this has happened before (they've discovered evidence of settlements/camps on revealed land after the glaciers retreat, for example, including ancient caches) and thus will likely happen again. My argument there is that we simply do not have enough data to make any realistic trend analysis on a global scale. My suspicion on the Alaska glaciers is that once the NPO shifts back east that they will start advancing again, and there is some evidence that that might be starting (although the data is *very* weak at this point so it's nothing more right now than a hunch).

I'm really waiting to see what will happen in the next five years or so due to the extremely low solar activity of the current Grand Solar Minimum. I've long suspected that the sun is the primary driver of climate fluctuations. Which makes logical sense, as the sun is the primary energy input into the climate system.

As for water issues *sighs* don't get me started on how much the climate scares are distracting from THAT issue. I know hydrologists who've been screaming their lungs out about aquifer depletion and mass subsidence issues in the Southwest due to over drawing ground water, yet are completely ignored because Climate Change is 'sexier'. People, if you live in the desert, do NOT maintain that nice green grass lawn or water hungry trees please! Xeriscaping is both beautiful AND sustainable in a desert climate, and saves enormous amounts of water.

And I agree that anecdote is useful, because it can inform areas of research and point to areas where we need to gather more data. I just do not think it wise to base policy upon anecdote, because anecdote is highly individual. When I hear anecdotal evidence, my reaction is to go 'hrmm' and start trying to dig up actual data to back it up. And if the data doesn't fit, trying to figure out what caused the conditions that led to the anecdote. Sometimes this will be because the data is not measuring the same thing as the anecdote, and careful study will find other sources that explain things.

And thanks, Bacle, that was very kind of you to say about how I write, but in person I tend to ramble and get extremely nervous, especially in small groups. Give me something to read in front of a big audience and I'm fine (I'm a lector at my church, after all) but I freeze up in small groups or if I have to speak off the cuff. Typing like this lets me go back and edit a few times before I'm satisfied with what I've written.

In closing, I'll just say that my single biggest problem with the alarmists and climate science crowd as currently constituted is that they've been screaming WOLF for so long, and been proven wrong so many times, that they are causing everybody ELSE who is involved in environmental issues to be looked at with suspicion. They've squandered just about all of the social credit that science, especially environmental science, has built up in order to fatten their own pockets and the pockets of their backers, and that, more than anything else in my opinion, is truly an environmental catastrophe in the making.
 
I'm going to reply first to @Sol Zagato for a few of his points then pivot to you, if you don't mind me quoting yours since the meat of this reply will be to you and I don't want to clutter things up in a spaghetti.

For your point 1, Sol, you are right, this is typical academic shenanigans, however I hope you realize just how small the actual field of climate science actually is. It's a few dozen 'respected climate scientists' who control the grant money, research papers in the field, etc, and they freeze out anybody who dissents from their orthodoxy no matter how well qualified they are. For example, look up Dr Willie Soong and what the climate team did to him when he dared to dissent from their zeitgeist. In addition, I strongly recommend following the money trail that is in the climate science field, and looking at their past predictions and comparing them to reality. They're batting .000 so far.

For your point 2, I would argue that climate science is fully corrupted at this point, to the same degree as social anthropology (not physical anthropology BTW, which was my particular interest, although it is amusing watching so many heads explode once we figured out how to read Mayan script LOL) The base pool of scientists is far smaller, they are far more selective in who they admit to the pool in the first place (dissent from the orthodoxy is Not Allowed you evil DENIER you) and they have ready-made constituencies who stand to profit enormously from their work (take a look at the correlation between the financial backers of the climate science crowd and the so-called 'green energy' industry, and prepare to throw up) so long as it fits the narrative. If reality fails to conform, they have models to prove that reality is wrong and their narrative survives.
Yeah, it's very suspicious how the whole "catastrophic, anthropogenic climate change" doomsday cultist crowd is lead by people who either:
a) Have their whole career, scratch that, whole profession invested in this theory being true.
If one day it was concluded that it's hokum and not worth interests, the funding would stop flowing, the grants would dry up, and a majority of everyone close to the term "climate scientist" would get effectively fired, with no opportunity to get a job in the field. The field would simply shrink back to the size it was before the climate change panic became a thing - which means a decimation of the field. Much less UN, NGO and national government funding all around. Many of their friends, colleagues, even mentors would get fired or severely demoted. And those who aren't would need to compete with those who were for the positions remaining. A terrible situation for that community all along. So there clearly is a perverse incentive to err on the side of climate change.

And then there are the watermelons. The green on the outside, red on the inside crowd. The likes of Saikat Chakrabati, AOC's chief of staff, who recently famously said that the whole climate change thing is a great opportunity to push their policies; those who would like those policies even if the climate change theory was total fiction.
And then, as you mentioned, there are the industries that stand to directly benefit from keeping this going.
That's the green alliance. They all have their own very material interests in keeping this "issue" going and in the news, right or wrong.
Honestly, while I disagree that climate change is a serious catastrophic issue, things like land use, habitat destruction, etc are critical issues that do not receive nearly enough attention. I would strongly encourage everybody reading this to cut down on or eliminate palm oil from your diet, for example, despite the supposed health benefits. Palm oil harvesting is utterly annihilating critical habitats through Asia and Oceania. I would also strongly encourage people to pay attention to the sourcing for any fish they purchase. These are the little things that can actually have a serious impact (don't get me started on the lunacy about straws and plastic bags in the US. Fun fact, almost none of the plastics in the ocean are sourced from the US, it's China, Malaysia, Indonesia and India where it comes from).
Yup, i did a narrative break on that on SB back when it was news, and some went to outright excusing and questioning this to defend the narrative for silly things like straw bans in western countries.
Even the USA, despite its meme polluter status, is merely the last of the 20, and there are some rarely mentioned countries around the top.

And Chinese fishing boats are getting a meme status in the law enforcement/geopolitics/security fields. They are freaking everywhere, and they are... bold in their quest for fish.
 
So I want to show an example of where climate hysteria can take people, if they take every prediction at face value.


For bonus points, the look on AOC's face when she realizes where her rhetoric is going is priceless.
 
So I want to show an example of where climate hysteria can take people, if they take every prediction at face value.


For bonus points, the look on AOC's face when she realizes where her rhetoric is going is priceless.


This is a just a troll by a pro Trump group.
 
This is a just a troll by a pro Trump group.


In retrospect, suggestions that the solution to a pending crisis is to eat babies probably should have had more people thinking satire than it did.

Hmm, well that is a masterful troll, and the fact that AOC didn't call her nuts just shows how far the Dems are willing to bend to what they think are their own base.

I wouldn't say that. How often have you seen politicians actually call thier own supporters crazy, vs doing what AOC did and just smile and nod until the crazy person shuts up? Because I can't actually recall anyone doing the former at all.

Town halls like this are just PR to let people see how much thier representatives care what they think (or rather, to trick people into thinking that their reps care what they think), and calling out supporters who say crazy things defeats the purpose of that.
 


So here/'s Putin's comment on Greta Thunberg. He has decided to go with an angle of "yeah, it's good that the young are interested in world affairs, but parents should do everything to keep children from going into extremes, it's condemnable if done and used in someone's interest (wink wink), and she isn't considering the scale and complexity of the issue.
 


So here/'s Putin's comment on Greta Thunberg. He has decided to go with an angle of "yeah, it's good that the young are interested in world affairs, but parents should do everything to keep children from going into extremes, it's condemnable if done and used in someone's interest (wink wink), and she isn't considering the scale and complexity of the issue.


How much does the Far Left hate or say, outright fear Putin? Compared to Trump guy looks more likely to actually destroy you
 
This is a very simple issue to solve: enforce regulations on the material all products' packaging should be made of, invest in renewable technology research, and stop eating cows, they are literally farting the Anctartic off.

Notice how I said "simple" and not "easy", in the same vein that it is simple to stop doing drugs.
 
This is a very simple issue to solve: enforce regulations on the material all products' packaging should be made of, invest in renewable technology research, and stop eating cows, they are literally farting the Anctartic off.

Notice how I said "simple" and not "easy", in the same vein that it is simple to stop doing drugs.


Technology is advancing on Biodegradable plastics. We may see widespread use soon and it's far more environmentally friendly than regular plastics. So I agree there.

But cows. Seriously dude? I can't tell if this is a joke or not.
 
Technology is advancing on Biodegradable plastics. We may see widespread use soon and it's far more environmentally friendly than regular plastics. So I agree there.

But cows. Seriously dude? I can't tell if this is a joke or not.
Cattle farming makes a slew of pollution. Now that being said I'm not going to stop eating beef. The guys not wrong though
 
Technology is advancing on Biodegradable plastics. We may see widespread use soon and it's far more environmentally friendly than regular plastics. So I agree there.

But cows. Seriously dude? I can't tell if this is a joke or not.
To be fair, cattle farming does contribute a statistically significant amount of the greenhouse gases being pumped into the environment. Unfortunately, we still need to eat; and the alternatives to cow farming would actually be worse for the environment. Basically, we'd have to chop down a lot of trees to make room for more crop farming, in order to make up for their loss; not to mention what the lack of a ready source of fertilizer, or resting periods as grazeland, would do to crop farming outputs in general.

In short; getting rid of the cows is yet another short-sighted scheme cooked up by activists who suffer from the Dunning–Kruger effect, that would ultimately cause more problems than it would solve.
 
To be fair, cattle farming does contribute a statistically significant amount of the greenhouse gases being pumped into the environment. Unfortunately, we still need to eat; and the alternatives to cow farming would actually be worse for the environment. Basically, we'd have to chop down a lot of trees to make room for more crop farming, in order to make up for their loss; not to mention what the lack of a ready source of fertilizer, or resting periods as grazeland, would do to crop farming outputs in general.

In short; getting rid of the cows is yet another short-sighted scheme cooked up by activists who suffer from the Dunning–Kruger effect, that would ultimately cause more problems than it would solve.



Thank you for this. I'll take a look when I can.
 
enforce regulations on the material all products' packaging should be made of,
<laughs in Chinese>
Good luck with the enforcing. Also that has more to do with trash than greenhouse gasses.
and stop eating cows, they are literally farting the Anctartic off.
<laughs in Hindi>
2deb6dcf.JPG


Remember, dead cows don't fart, worry about the people who keep insane numbers of live ones around, many with no intention of eating them.

Livestock farming, all of it, according to the mainstream, is 14-18% of all greenhouse gas emissions. So, meaningful, but hardly a gamechanger. Also methane just decomposes in atmosphere over just few years, unlike CO2, hence some controversy about use of that in models and estimates.

To be fair, cattle farming does contribute a statistically significant amount of the greenhouse gases being pumped into the environment. Unfortunately, we still need to eat; and the alternatives to cow farming would actually be worse for the environment. Basically, we'd have to chop down a lot of trees to make room for more crop farming, in order to make up for their loss; not to mention what the lack of a ready source of fertilizer, or resting periods as grazeland, would do to crop farming outputs in general.

In short; getting rid of the cows is yet another short-sighted scheme cooked up by activists who suffer from the Dunning–Kruger effect, that would ultimately cause more problems than it would solve.

And that touches upon something that Putin mentioned in later part of the video.
Sure, in rich countries with populations raised since childhood in some level of environmentalist argumentation, the idea of leaving lots of land effectively fallow, to grow over with wilderness, is appealing on those sentimental grounds.

But that doesn't mean that other cultures see it in the same way, or that it is rational for anyone to see it this way to begin with.
Some may see related arguments involved in Wild West colonization (specifically the idea of homesteading), but the clear fact is that land not in developement is a net zero value economically to the country and its people (if for this or that reason it needs supervision of some types, it's even a negative).

With farming, mining, for-profit forestry or even recreational infrastructure, it's a net positive, it's a resource, a basis for a business that will provide jobs and pay taxes. Pastures are usually very low quality crop soils, so, if not for livestock, they would have to be left as useless land. No beef for food (or sale), no jobs, no taxes, bad for the country.

Sure, many countries can sustain very prosperous economies without much in terms of such resource based industries, but let's not forget that despite this, they have access to plenty of any resources they need. And that's because some other country somewhere makes a whole lot of them and sells them, usually cheaper than the aforementioned could make them; not always for mere geographical/environmental advantage, but also cheap labor and lax regulations.
In the end, it's their land, they do what they want with it, and what they want is to make some damn money off of it, because making money off land which they have plenty of what they are good at, and not very good at making money through other means.
So, while such argumentation may sound acceptable to some, in other countries it sounds like going to Hollywood and suggesting a ban on movies.
 
Unfortunately, we still need to eat; and the alternatives to cow farming would actually be worse for the environment. Basically, we'd have to chop down a lot of trees to make room for more crop farming, in order to make up for their loss; not to mention what the lack of a ready source of fertilizer, or resting periods as grazeland, would do to crop farming outputs in general.
We can shift to more efficient protein animals like pigs (which can live of a surprisingly wide variety of organic wastes) and chicken. We can have the farmland used to grow cattle feed for the factory farms instead directly feed people. Cattle farming isn't very efficient in any way unless it's the only thing you can do with an area. Crop rotation and well-managed fertilizer can substitute for grazeland resting (and the crop rotation can reduce fertilizer needs, as well), and the vast majority of modern fertilizer is synthetic, rather than sourced from animals.
 
Just one thing to point out. While the climate science activists and the media would love it if you only cared about CO2 and maybe methane, both gases are actually the smallest component of the actual greenhouse theory. The most powerful greenhouse gas of them all? Water vapor. By several orders of magnitude. However water vapor is also the most self-regulated of the greenhouse gases, as when it's concentration reaches a certain point it tends to precipitate out of the atmosphere in a lovely shower of rain.

This effect can actually be easily observed in the tropics, BTW. As the temperatures rise during the day you can actually see the water vapor congealing into first rather wispy clouds, then into cumulus clouds, then by mid-afternoon into cumulonimbus clouds, and then you have your daily afternoon thunderstorm. These storms are not caused by fronts either, they are simply a cycle due to solar irradiance increasing evaporation of water, leading to the formation of the cloud, leading to the storm.

I will also note that the beneficial effects of increased atmospheric CO2 are almost always completed elided out of the discussion. You see, CO2 levels by the early 19th century were actually dropping low enough that we had started to see a transition in plant life, with species that needed less to survive beginning to proliferate while more CO2 intensive plants were beginning to die. Most crops? CO2 intensive. This effect contributed strongly to desertification (look at the extent maps of the Sahara and other major deserts over time, then correlate them to CO2 levels...). However, as atmospheric CO2 started to rise thanks to us filthy filthy humans pumping it out with our coal burning ways of the Industrial Revolution, atmospheric CO2 rose back into the happy place for most plants, and you now see the Sahara shrinking exceptionally rapidly (albeit on a longer time scale than we usually think of as 'rapid' LOL).

Again, as I am very fond of saying, when it comes to climate and the insanely complex realities of atmospheric circulations, thermal transport, cloud formation (oh, forgot to mention, all of those precious precious climate models you are supposed to believe? None of them account for clouds at all) etc we don't even fully know what we don't know. We don't know all the questions we need to ask, because we're always finding things that make us go 'WTF?' because nobody had ever conceived of the discovery. For real scientists, this would be something they'd be insanely happy over. A real scientists loves it when his experiment disproves his hypothesis, because that means he now has new data with which to form the NEXT hypothesis. An activist is married to his hypothesis and cannot permit it to even be tested, let alone disproved.
 
Honestly, I prefer to take a "don't defecate where you sleep" approach towards the environment. I don't really think it matters whether climate change is a thing or not; there's still a lot of things we can and should be working on regardless, if only to improve quality of life. Then again, I'm not a conservative; so I'm not sure how relevant my opinions are on environmentalism are to this thread.
 

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