Russia(gate/bot) Russia-Ukraine War Political Discussion

[ATP]

Ok now I get it you are so anti Chinese because of ethnic historical reasons. Just like Poles and Russians.

Sorry,but russians were genocided by soviets,when chineese somehow survived/even if in broken form/ so anology is not accurate.

 

[Zyobot]

Sorry,but russians were genocided by soviets,when chineese somehow survived/even if in broken form/ so anology is not accurate.

Yeah, but how much longer will China survive for? The CCP is cracking down and reversing decades of liberalization as we speak, so Xi strangling whatever progress China has made and ensuring that Communism wins in the end isn't out of the question.

At the very least, I think whatever regime replaces the current one is likely to put China out of misery instead of resuscitating it, though the specific outcome I sketched it out is more of a long-shot future scenario that I've probably mucked up the thread with, as is.

 

[ATP]

Yeah, but how much longer will China survive for? The CCP is cracking down and reversing decades of liberalization as we speak, so Xi strangling whatever progress China has made and ensuring that Communism wins in the end isn't out of the question.

At the very least, I think whatever regime replaces the current one is likely to put China out of misery instead of resuscitating it, though the specific outcome I sketched it out is more of a long-shot future scenario that I've probably mucked up the thread with, as is.

All true.
But cripple could still become healthy and live,when dead nations,like russians,would remain dead.

 

[Zyobot]

All true.
But cripple could still become healthy and live,when dead nations,like russians,would remain dead.

Unless the cripple has terminal cancer, which is what I fear China is becoming.

But anyway, sorry to derail. Would’ve brought this up in the ChiCom News Thread, but saw a bit of a side-discussion here that was too fascinating to ignore, hence my replying the way I did.

 

[Jormungandr]

Yeah, but how much longer will China survive for? The CCP is cracking down and reversing decades of liberalization as we speak, so Xi strangling whatever progress China has made and ensuring that Communism wins in the end isn't out of the question.

At the very least, I think whatever regime replaces the current one is likely to put China out of misery instead of resuscitating it, though the specific outcome I sketched it out is more of a long-shot future scenario that I've probably mucked up the thread with, as is.

If the CCP does fall, China would likely balkanize back into seperate countries. Hell, it's only the CCP's grip that's stopping it from happening right now.

No CCP glue holding different shards together? No united China.

 

[ATP]

If the CCP does fall, China would likely balkanize back into seperate countries. Hell, it's only the CCP's grip that's stopping it from happening right now.

No CCP glue holding different shards together? No united China.

Till next Dynasty with Mandate of Heavens come.

 

[Bassoe]

At the very least, I think whatever regime replaces the current one is likely to put China out of misery instead of resuscitating it, though the specific outcome I sketched it out is more of a long-shot future scenario that I've probably mucked up the thread with, as is.

If the CCP does fall, China would likely balkanize back into seperate countries. Hell, it's only the CCP's grip that's stopping it from happening right now.

No CCP glue holding different shards together? No united China.

Till next Dynasty with Mandate of Heavens come.

Thing is, China doesn't exist in a vacuum. If the auntologists got their way and the CCP fell and balkanized along ethnic lines, what're the chances of outsiders interfering by backing puppet regimes to keep it balkanized?

It's auntology, which is this wacko alt-right Chinese ideology that sprung up from disaffected overseas Chinese, many of them Christians who feel wronged by the state. I've done a lil reading on them:

Auntology as a word is aunt/ology, because the thinker behind it, Liu Zhongjing is nicknamed by his followers as "auntie". He tells us that Chinese ethnic identity is a fabrication, a creation of the traditional ruling classes of imperial China 3000 years in the making. Before the centralized Chinese state came into being, namely before the Qin Dynasty, Liu paints a picture of a utopian, diverse Yellow River civilization which was filled with competing national identities and philosophical traditions. He explains that the unification of China ushered in a line of monarchs who forcibly imposed a unified ethnic identity and "great unification" ideology. This ideology is inherently destructive and distrustful of any deviance from the "central" standard Chinese individual.

You can divide these two starkly different civilisations into 2 "models": First is the fellaheen, which is an arabic word translating to peasant. Civilisations of this tradition include Arabia, post-Qin China etc. They are characterised by strongman rule, overcentralisation and self-destructive tendancies. Second is the "national civilisation", examples of which include the modern West and pre-Qin China. They are characterised by diverse schools of thought, free thinking and personal freedom. Auntology's answer to the Chinese question is that China must refute the constructed idea of "China", and divide into various seperate nations--the true primordial natural and "national" state of China. This is why you get completely nonsensical names for the balkanised China, because Liu suggests constructed national identities and constructed languages. Liu's racial views are also very transparent here.

This ideology is relevant to the left-right divide, and auntology firmly takes the right. The left preaches uniformity, "Leninist" political culture and inevitably leeds to fellaheen. Any political culture that has undergone Leninism, such as China, must be completely deconstructed or even destroyed. Thus you have the contemproary struggle in the West: between the left (in auntology, the white left--it's the left wing of cosmopolitan, racially white liberals) and the right (in auntology, the rightist dogs--the "free thinking" conservatives). Auntology believes Chinese people must defeat white leftism, and cooperate with the American alt-right.

There's also strange tidbits in it...such as how many of its supporters are underground Catholics from Hebei, seeking independence in a Catholic state of "Yuyencia"...it's all very strange.

So you'd have politically independent Taiwan, Uyghur and Tibetan ethnostates, etc, all being given weaponry and money so long as they kept selling their natural resources and labor to foreigners and didn't reunite. This is actual CCP propaganda narrative, that if they fall now, it'll be a cross between another century of humiliation and the post-soviet pillaging of Russia by politically connected oligarchs. And they're arguably right, that's exactly what the CIA would do if given half a chance.

 

[Atarlost]

Thing is, China doesn't exist in a vacuum. If the auntologists got their way and the CCP fell and balkanized along ethnic lines, what're the chances of outsiders interfering by backing puppet regimes to keep it balkanized?

They won't need to back puppet regimes to keep it balkanized. If China breaks up they'll want to get back together about as much as the Romanians want to reunite with Turkey.

 

[AmosTrask]

Putin having given the ultimatum to his generals to Capture all of Donetsk by Feb 24 the one year anniversary of the war. The Russians are advancing like zombies into the meat grinder in human wave attacks and artillery bombardment. No tactics or overall strategy beyond advance. Bahkmut is only important for Russian because of a critical Soviet victory against the Nazis. It is not a strategic or tactically important point for Ukraine. I'd feel sorry for them if they weren't mass Murdering, rapists.

Those poor Inuit. The Russian press gangs are grabbing Inuit hunter gatherers off the taiga and Arctic tundra and conscripting them to fill the Donetsk and Luhansk armies. WTF? They're nomadic Arctic tribals why the hell would you put them in Urban combat!? That's the complete opposite of where they should be used if you were going to conscript them at all.

 

[Tiamat]

Putin having given the ultimatum to his generals to Capture all of Donetsk by Feb 24 the one year anniversary of the war. The Russians are advancing like zombies into the meat grinder in human wave attacks and artillery bombardment. No tactics or overall strategy beyond advance. Bahkmut is only important for Russian because of a critical Soviet victory against the Nazis. It is not a strategic or tactically important point for Ukraine. I'd feel sorry for them if they weren't mass Murdering, rapists.

Those poor Inuit. The Russian press gangs are grabbing Inuit hunter gatherers off the taiga and Arctic tundra and conscripting them to fill the Donetsk and Luhansk armies. WTF? They're nomadic Arctic tribals why the hell would you put them in Urban combat!? That's the complete opposite of where they should be used if you were going to conscript them at all.

Do you have links for these? I know about the roaming press gangs on the streets and also recruitment from prisons, but hadn't heard about the Inuits.

 

[Bacle]

Do you have links for these? I know about the roaming press gangs on the streets and also recruitment from prisons, but hadn't heard about the Inuits.

There are a number of units from the Far East that were transferred to fight in the invasion months back, as well as from the ethnic republics, particularly Dagestan, Chechnya (not Kadyrov's guys, mobiks), and from Yakutia. They may have gotten to the point of raiding the caribou herders that double as Arctic militia.

Putin wants to drain the non-Russian minorities of as much manpower as possible to preserve ethnic Russian superiority, as many of the ethnic republics were outbreeding the Moscovites and Petersburgers. Using the ethnic minorites as fodder for the invasion of Ukraine removes that demographic advantage in the most useful way possible.

 

[AmosTrask]

There are a number of units from the Far East that were transferred to fight in the invasion months back, as well as from the ethnic republics, particularly Dagestan, Chechnya (not Kadyrov's guys, mobiks), and from Yakutia. They may have gotten to the point of raiding the caribou herders that double as Arctic militia.

Putin wants to drain the non-Russian minorities of as much manpower as possible to preserve ethnic Russian superiority, as many of the ethnic republics were outbreeding the Moscovites and Petersburgers. Using the ethnic minorites as fodder for the invasion of Ukraine removes that demographic advantage in the most useful way possible.

It's ongoing. Another militia unit from the Russian Far East Republics, this time from northern region of Sakha Republic just over the border from Yakutia. They posted a video on Telegram addressing Putin. The militia were not refusing orders to fight in Donetsk, but saying they can't fight as they have no equipment. They have old heirloom hunting rifles they use for protecting their herds and their militia duties. They have no military kit or rations. The poor bastards were dressed in hide parkas and deel, with the commander and officers in old WW2 Soviet winter kit.

Meanwhile Putin addressed the Duma demanding the death sentence for draft dodgers, Russians who fled the country, or those abroad who did not return when contacted by the Russian embassy and ordered to return for service. As well as those who "spread rumors that might harm the war effort." Well, it's back to Stalin's reign of terror now amigos og amigas. I hope Putin dies like Stalin as well. In utter agony as his stroke and heart attack slowly kill him over 12 hours. With the guards and his personal doctor to scared too open the door at his incoherent screaming.

 

[AnimalNoodles]

Putin having given the ultimatum to his generals to Capture all of Donetsk by Feb 24 the one year anniversary of the war. The Russians are advancing like zombies into the meat grinder in human wave attacks and artillery bombardment. No tactics or overall strategy beyond advance. Bahkmut is only important for Russian because of a critical Soviet victory against the Nazis. It is not a strategic or tactically important point for Ukraine. I'd feel sorry for them if they weren't mass Murdering, rapists.

Those poor Inuit. The Russian press gangs are grabbing Inuit hunter gatherers off the taiga and Arctic tundra and conscripting them to fill the Donetsk and Luhansk armies. WTF? They're nomadic Arctic tribals why the hell would you put them in Urban combat!? That's the complete opposite of where they should be used if you were going to conscript them at all.

Thats ridiculous.

abducting inuit? wtf? where did you get this gem? the guardian? Its the ukrainians who are using press gangs, literally abducting old men off the street, giving them minimal training then forcing them to become human roadblocks in bakhmut.

First of all Bakhmut is the lynchpin of the entire donbass front. Its an important logistical node and the centerpoint of the third line of defense. Once it falls, the ukrainians will be forced to fall back to the far less defensible sloviansk kramatorsk line. After that, there is nothing.

Secondly, neither side is using human wave attacks. The russians are by and large advancing cautiously and carefully, using their 9-1 artillery advantage to inflict vastly disproportionate casualties before carefully advancing.

Meanwhile the Ukrainians are shovelling untrained conscripts into a firesack where the average lifespan is literally four hours before they die to artillery.

If the russians wanted to Zerg rush, they'd push their 200,000+ reserves they have been building up into bakhmut and overrun the place in days.

 

[Marduk]

Thats ridiculous.

abducting inuit? wtf? where did you get this gem? the guardian? Its the ukrainians who are using press gangs, literally abducting old men off the street, giving them minimal training then forcing them to become human roadblocks in bakhmut.

First of all Bakhmut is the lynchpin of the entire donbass front. Its an important logistical node and the centerpoint of the third line of defense. Once it falls, the ukrainians will be forced to fall back to the far less defensible sloviansk kramatorsk line. After that, there is nothing.

Secondly, neither side is using human wave attacks. The russians are by and large advancing cautiously and carefully, using their 9-1 artillery advantage to inflict vastly disproportionate casualties before carefully advancing.

Meanwhile the Ukrainians are shovelling untrained conscripts into a firesack where the average lifespan is literally four hours before they die to artillery.

If the russians wanted to Zerg rush, they'd push their 200,000+ reserves they have been building up into bakhmut and overrun the place in days.

I hope you know where you can stick your Russian Bagdhad Bob talk and projecting all the stuff DPR actually does over to Ukraine...
"Far less defensible Sloviansk Kramatorsk line, after that there is nothing", never since 2014 they would have thought to build additional lines just in case, yeah, right.
Who are you trying to fool, yourself?

 

[Zachowon]

@AnimalNoodles how about we make a bet.
How quickly do you think Russia will get to Dnipro?

 

[AnimalNoodles]

I hope you know where you can stick your Russian Bagdhad Bob talk and projecting all the stuff DPR actually does over to Ukraine...
"Far less defensible Sloviansk Kramatorsk line, after that there is nothing", never since 2014 they would have thought to build additional lines just in case".
Who are you trying to fool, yourself?

You can delude yourself all you like, but It took 8 years to build up the defenses in donbass, and due to the nature of donbass, its a highly defensible place. The lines they are building elsewhere will not be so dense, so heavy, so concentrated and so highly developed.

Ive been saying for months the russians main target in this point of the war is maximising their advantage in artillery to grind down the Ukrainian army. While you were all jubilant about very costly meme offensives into lightly occupied or evacuated regions like Kherson or Kharkov and fantasizing that this will lead to some grand advance in Crimea, Russia has been grinding the Ukrainians down in the real center of the fight..donbass.

Even the Ukrainians are starting to admit the lopsided nature of the casualties there.

Bakhmut will soon fall. The Ukrainians will be forced back to the fourth line, and there are 200,000+ fresh Russian reserves waiting for whatever conditions the russians have set to enter the fight.

Ukrainian defeat comes gradually, then suddenly. And it wouldnt have happened if the Americans and their British vassals had allowed their Ukrainian colony to negotiate peace last march.

 

[AnimalNoodles]

@AnimalNoodles how about we make a bet.
How quickly do you think Russia will get to Dnipro?

I wont take that bet, because I simply dont know. But will you bet on how long it will take for the Ukrainians to take Sevastopol?

My bet is never.

 

[Marduk]

You can delude yourself all you like, but It took 8 years to build up the defenses in donbass, and due to the nature of donbass, its a highly defensible place. The lines they are building elsewhere will not be so dense, so heavy, so concentrated and so highly developed.

They were getting better with every month...
Sloviansk-Kramatorsk line is in fact probably one of the strongest, contrary to the bullshit you were saying.

Ive been saying for months the russians main target in this point of the war is maximising their advantage in artillery to grind down the Ukrainian army. While you were all jubilant about very costly meme offensives into lightly occupied or evacuated regions like Kherson or Kharkov and fantasizing that this will lead to some grand advance in Crimea, Russia has been grinding the Ukrainians down in the real center of the fight..donbass.

>maximizing
They are using up reserves of shells and barrels older than the people using them. They are maximizing jack shit.
Also, supposed grinding down of enemy army while being the attacking side in WW1 style trench-artillery warfare goes against the most basic military knowledge. The very much conventional wisdom is that this sort of warfare grinds down the attacker's army first and foremost. Get better bullshit lines, because the ones you are spreading require turning most basic rules of warfare upside down to be true.

Even the Ukrainians are starting to admit the lopsided nature of the casualties there.

Bakhmut will soon fall. The Ukrainians will be forced back to the fourth line, and there are 200,000+ fresh Russian reserves waiting for whatever conditions the russians have set to enter the fight.

Ukrainian defeat comes gradually, then suddenly. And it wouldnt have happened if the Americans and their British vassals had allowed their Ukrainian colony to negotiate peace last march.

LMAO. Where are you getting this shit from, some shady Z telegrams? /chug/? RT?

 

[AnimalNoodles]

They were getting better with every month...
Sloviansk-Kramatorsk line is in fact probably one of the strongest, contrary to the bullshit you were saying.

No its not

No its not. It is the least improved of the four lines in donbass, and the high ground and important roadways are to the *east* of the line. its the least defensible line. Ukraine knows it. Thats why they have been pouring reserves into the line at bakhmut

>maximizing
They are using up reserves of shells and barrels older than the people using them. They are maximizing jack shit.
Also, supposed grinding down of enemy army while being the attacking side in WW1 style trench-artillery warfare goes against the most basic military knowledge. The very much conventional wisdom is that this sort of warfare grinds down the attacker's army first and foremost. Get better bullshit lines, because the ones you are spreading require turning most basic rules of warfare upside down to be true.

Only when both sides have approximate artillery parity. But they dont. The Russians have a 9-1 artillery advantage. An advantage thats growing. Do you know the russians are now employing the Penicillin counter battery system? It uses a computer to analyse acoustic and seismic data to precisely calculate counterbattery fire. It has no radar. No emissions to detect. It cant be blinded or jammed. And as a result, Russia's advantage in artillery is increasing.

They are simply lobbing shells and then advancing over the rubble. They arent launching lots of mass infantry assaults over no mans land. They dont need to. They shell. shell. shell. with near impunity. Then advance into the ruins. They are in no hurry.

Are they taking casualties? of course. But the casualty rates are vastly in their favour.

Bakhmut is a trap alright, for the Ukrainians.

LMAO. Where are you getting this shit from, some shady Z telegrams? /chug/? RT?

So you think Bakhmut will hold, despite its gradual envelopment by Russian forces? Do you deny that russia has a vast reserve of men that have been assembling since september? Do you deny that the Americans scuttled Ukrainian peace talks in March because they believed that a war would see regime change in Moscow? Keep in mind the former israeli PM openly admitted as such.

 

[Marduk]

No its not. It is the least improved of the four lines in donbass, and the high ground and important roadways are to the *east* of the line. its the least defensible line. Ukraine knows it. Thats why they have been pouring reserves into the line at bakhmut

And why would i believe that considering your Baghdad Bob level connection with reality and basics of military doctrine?
They are pouring reserves into the line at Bakhmut because there the reserves can inflict massively disproportionate losses on Russians. That's it.

Only when both sides have approximate artillery parity. But they dont. The Russians have a 9-1 artillery advantage. An advantage thats growing. Do you know the russians are now employing the Penicillin counter battery system? It uses a computer to analyse acoustic and seismic data to precisely calculate counterbattery fire. It has no radar. No emissions to detect. It cant be blinded or jammed. And as a result, Russia's advantage in artillery is increasing.

How many of these do they have? 20 prototypes, like with T-14?
Is it as precise as their apartment block seeking cruise missiles from mid cold war?
Ukraine is increasingly reliant on more accurate western made artillery, hence numbers are mattering less, because one does not win wars by cratering fields, if you can hit the enemy with less shots that's even better than having impressive numbers of 1943 vintage howitzers that look nicely in propaganda numbers and are excellent at cratering huge fields, but definitely aren't anywhere near equal in performance to a M777 or Caesar.

Russian Wagner PMC Artillery Using 152mm D-1 Howitzer, Developed In 1943 #shorts #short #news #war

Russian Wagner PMC Artillery Using 152mm D-1 Howitzer, Developed In 1943#shorts #short #shortvideo #shortsvideo #shortsfeed #shortsyoutube #shortfeed #shorts...

www.youtube.com

They are simply lobbing shells and then advancing over the rubble. They arent launching lots of mass infantry assaults over no mans land. They dont need to. They shell. shell. shell. with near impunity. Then advance into the ruins. They are in no hurry.

Russian casualty numbers disagree about the impunity.

Are they taking casualties? of course. But the casualty rates are vastly in their favour.

I would need exceptionally strong evidence to believe that contrary to all the conventional wisdom, in trench-artillery warfare the attacker is getting vastly favorable casualty ratios. You have none.
As such, you are a budget Baghdad Bob clone.

Bakhmut is a trap alright, for the Ukrainians.

Whatever bullshit source you are getting this stuff from is the real trap, for pumping your naive brain with propaganda.

So you think Bakhmut will hold, despite its gradual envelopment by Russian forces? Do you deny that russia has a vast reserve of men that have been assembling since september? Do you deny that the Americans scuttled Ukrainian peace talks in March because they believed that a war would see regime change in Moscow? Keep in mind the former israeli PM openly admitted as such.

Bakhmut may or may not hold, it has little strategic relevance beyond being a rock for the "vast reserve of men" Russia has to be crushed against as long as possible.
Once it gets ground down, there will be more. If you don't believe western sources, check out what Strelkov (who was a major leader of separatists in 2014) and the like have to say about the Russian tactic of setting up "mini-Verduns", and who does such tactic favor casualty ratio wise.

Peace talks with Russia at this time are foolish and Americans or Ukrainians both are smart to scuttle them if they existed in the first place, which considering the narrative of Russian propaganda is questionable too. Don't throw the "anti war pacifist" bait talking points at me, it will achieve the opposite effect with me to the one they are expected to achieve.
Also i don't care about Israel's equivalent of democrat president.