History Learner
Well-known member
I definitely agree with you about the political effects and it being nothing like 1940, but my question is more focused on the military side of things: say the Germans take Amiens and push the British back to the channel ports, what then? How do the Germans push their advantage into a victory? The Germans already had a pretty severe manpower deficit by March, 1918. Could they really afford another offensive in the summer to knock France out, say at Paris, Roen, La Havre, or god forbid, Verdun? What if this second offensive fails? What's preventing the BEF from retreating through Abbeville, or being evacuated from Calais to Dover and then La Havre, to reinforce the French again?
If the BEF is retreating, they've destroyed 90% of their equipment in place per that planning which means they are a force that is basically small arms only. Can we really expect them to hold without artillery, among their other equipment? With the BEF out of the picture and the Americans still not arriving in force yet, it's likely France is forced out politically at this point alone, taking 1940 as the standard. If not, the Bethune coal mines which supply Paris-which supplies 70% of the war material of the French (and later, American) Army-has been directly overrun and the railways from it cut anyway. Between being alone with their left flank open and the collapse of their war production, France will need to seek an armistice because it will be incapable of defending what is left.